Meanwhile in France...

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IvanV
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Meanwhile in France...

Post by IvanV » Mon Jul 01, 2024 9:11 am

...things are not going well.

Macron made his own curious decision to call a parliamentary, just after his party was trounced in the Euro election. He remains president, as presidential elections have their own cycle. But, somewhat unsurprisingly, his party didn't do well in this election. (Guardian). His party forms part of the centrist Ensemble alliance, which came in 3rd place (BBC).

Le Pen's right wing RN party leads with 33% of the vote in the first round. They have run-off elections on Sunday in constituencies where no party got an absolute majority, which is nearly all of them. In a curious design, there may be 3 candidates in a run-off, if they got sufficient votes in the first round. So there is a risk of vote-splitting where there are 3 candidates. It seems that parties are cooperating to try and keep the RN out. Though even on projections without provision for tactical voting, RN would be lucky to get a majority. But they are likely to be the largest party.

Meanwhile Macron remains president, and will have to "co-habit" with whatever party manages to form a government and select a prime minister. Since the leftist grouping is in 2nd place, they would likely lead any coalition, assuming the RN falls short of a majority. The main character there is Corbyn-alike Jean-Luc Mélenchon. He wants to spend lots of money, put the retirement age back down, etc. Like François Hollande, leftist president from 2012-17, he will quickly find there isn't any money. I think the purse is even emptier than when Hollande came in, for reasons common to much of the world - aging population, increasing demands on health and social services, higher interest rates, large debts from Global Financial Crisis and Covid.

If the RN should win the election, or form a minority administration in the absence of other parties being able to form a coalition, then the formal party leader who will become Prime Minister is 28-yr-old Jordan Bardella. He is generally presumed to be Le Pen's puppet.

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Re: Meanwhile in France...

Post by dyqik » Mon Jul 01, 2024 12:38 pm

I think that Macron called the election either in a hope that the Euro results would scare people into voting for centrists, or that the left would ally with the center and block the right for a longer term, before the right could get even more support.

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Re: Meanwhile in France...

Post by Brightonian » Mon Jul 01, 2024 1:22 pm

I was amazed that the left were able to create their own coalition basically immediately.

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Re: Meanwhile in France...

Post by Brightonian » Mon Jul 01, 2024 7:00 pm

My father takes an interest in French politics, and has done his own model of sorts, to estimate that RN (the Le Pen people) will get 250 deputies, the NFP (broad left) will get 150, and Renaissance (Macron) will get 120.

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Re: Meanwhile in France...

Post by Grumble » Mon Jul 01, 2024 9:46 pm

Brightonian wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2024 7:00 pm
My father takes an interest in French politics, and has done his own model of sorts, to estimate that RN (the Le Pen people) will get 250 deputies, the NFP (broad left) will get 150, and Renaissance (Macron) will get 120.
Assuming that to be the case, will Macron’s party swallow their pride and become junior partners in a coalition?
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three

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Re: Meanwhile in France...

Post by dyqik » Mon Jul 01, 2024 9:49 pm

Grumble wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2024 9:46 pm
Brightonian wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2024 7:00 pm
My father takes an interest in French politics, and has done his own model of sorts, to estimate that RN (the Le Pen people) will get 250 deputies, the NFP (broad left) will get 150, and Renaissance (Macron) will get 120.
Assuming that to be the case, will Macron’s party swallow their pride and become junior partners in a coalition?
I think so in this case.

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Re: Meanwhile in France...

Post by IvanV » Tue Jul 02, 2024 9:10 am

Brightonian wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2024 7:00 pm
My father takes an interest in French politics, and has done his own model of sorts, to estimate that RN (the Le Pen people) will get 250 deputies, the NFP (broad left) will get 150, and Renaissance (Macron) will get 120.
A majority of the 577 seats is 289. So 150+120 would need a little extra cooperation to get a majority.

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Re: Meanwhile in France...

Post by dyqik » Sun Jul 07, 2024 6:20 pm

dyqik wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2024 12:38 pm
I think that Macron called the election either in a hope that the Euro results would scare people into voting for centrists, or that the left would ally with the center and block the right for a longer term, before the right could get even more support.
Some of this seems to have worked, with projections showing the right coming third, with the left in first place. And based on high turn-out.
Last edited by dyqik on Sun Jul 07, 2024 6:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Meanwhile in France...

Post by dyqik » Sun Jul 07, 2024 6:21 pm

IvanV wrote:
Tue Jul 02, 2024 9:10 am
Brightonian wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2024 7:00 pm
My father takes an interest in French politics, and has done his own model of sorts, to estimate that RN (the Le Pen people) will get 250 deputies, the NFP (broad left) will get 150, and Renaissance (Macron) will get 120.
A majority of the 577 seats is 289. So 150+120 would need a little extra cooperation to get a majority.
It's looking more like 190+150

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Re: Meanwhile in France...

Post by Brightonian » Sun Jul 07, 2024 6:35 pm

dyqik wrote:
Sun Jul 07, 2024 6:21 pm
IvanV wrote:
Tue Jul 02, 2024 9:10 am
Brightonian wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2024 7:00 pm
My father takes an interest in French politics, and has done his own model of sorts, to estimate that RN (the Le Pen people) will get 250 deputies, the NFP (broad left) will get 150, and Renaissance (Macron) will get 120.
A majority of the 577 seats is 289. So 150+120 would need a little extra cooperation to get a majority.
It's looking more like 190+150
Projection from France 24, suggesting that the Macronists might have done better than RN (Le Pen), with the left also doing better than expected:
Projection-parlement-EN-1.png
Projection-parlement-EN-1.png (231.92 KiB) Viewed 848 times

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Re: Meanwhile in France...

Post by dyqik » Sun Jul 07, 2024 6:38 pm

Although for the first version of that, they'd failed to adjust the size of the pie pieces from expectations.
20240707_143840.jpg
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Re: Meanwhile in France...

Post by Brightonian » Sun Jul 07, 2024 7:23 pm

Big jump in the turnout: 67% this time, compared with 46% in 2022. Perhaps a lot of people who usually can't be bothered to vote were spurred into action by the prospect of a far-right legislature.

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Re: Meanwhile in France...

Post by FlammableFlower » Sun Jul 07, 2024 7:40 pm

Guardian reporting exit polls showing s centre-left shift with the far right dropping to third place. Hope this turns out to be correct, and the increased turnout reflects people voting to keep the right out.

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Re: Meanwhile in France...

Post by Brightonian » Sun Jul 07, 2024 8:47 pm

Latest projection, with ranges reduced:

Left: 177 to 192
Macronists: 152 to 158
Far right: 138 to 145

https://www.france24.com/en/france/2024 ... cond-round

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Re: Meanwhile in France...

Post by IvanV » Mon Jul 08, 2024 9:32 am

Outcome:
Other left 13
Left alliance 180
Macronist 168
Centre right 60
National Rally and allies 143
Other 11

Any majority has to contain two of the largest three blocks. But none of them get on very well. The only realistic outcome is for the Left and the Macronists to come to some kind of compromise, as neither of them will deal with National Rally. But it will be very uncomfortable.

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Re: Meanwhile in France...

Post by Brightonian » Mon Jul 08, 2024 10:39 am

I saw it mentioned on Twitter that François Hollande could become prime minister.

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Re: Meanwhile in France...

Post by IvanV » Tue Jul 09, 2024 9:52 am

Brightonian wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2024 10:39 am
I saw it mentioned on Twitter that François Hollande could become prime minister.
IvanV wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2024 9:32 am
Any majority has to contain two of the largest three blocks. But none of them get on very well. The only realistic outcome is for the Left and the Macronists to come to some kind of compromise, as neither of them will deal with National Rally. But it will be very uncomfortable.
The Macronists have said they don't want to come to a deal with the Left, so there is no majority administration available. There's some suggestion that the Macronists might try to come to a deal with smaller parties, which could given them more seats than the Left, but not a majority, unless they could peel some pieces off some of these alliances.

Macron has said that the current PM, Attal, will stay in place for the moment until there is clarification.

If the Left get the right to appoint a PM, then Hollande could a clever choice. His practical experience of being a left wing President unable to fund his ambitions due insufficient money, and so doing the pragmatic thing, will mean that the centre won't be frightened of him.

The likelihood is that not much will be done until the next presidential election.

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Re: Meanwhile in France...

Post by Tristan » Tue Jul 09, 2024 11:28 am

IvanV wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2024 9:52 am
The likelihood is that not much will be done until the next presidential election.
Which Le Pen will be delighted about. Yes, it's good that the National Front aren't in government, but I'm not particularly optimistic that we won't see a Le Pen presidency or a future National Front government.

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Re: Meanwhile in France...

Post by Brightonian » Mon Jul 22, 2024 4:14 pm

Apparently there's a tradition in the French parliament for the youngest member to shake hands with new members.

The youngest member this time was from Le Pen's party...

https://x.com/TedJohnsonIII/status/1815378640709849143

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