Fake Reform Candidates

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dyqik
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Fake Reform Candidates

Post by dyqik » Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:16 pm

The Byline Times is asking questions about the existence of up to 115 Reform candidates, as they appear to have no online presence, those checked did not turn up for hustings or the count, and their campaign websites contain no personal material.

A reddit thread about this seems to have noticed that many candidates have their address as South Derbyshire, including candidates in London and Manchester. At least one candidate in for an English seat lives in Gibraltar.

Even if they are all real people, the number of paper candidates should really call into question anything talking about the Reform vote share - it seems that a large number of their votes are for virtually non-existent candidates who would never campaign for more in those constituencies.

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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by lpm » Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:25 pm

A candidate must presumably provide evidence they are 18 and a citizen.

There must be some ID check. Would be hilarious if you need ID to vote but not to stand.
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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by Stranger Mouse » Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:27 pm

dyqik wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:16 pm
The Byline Times is asking questions about the existence of up to 115 Reform candidates, as they appear to have no online presence, those checked did not turn up for hustings or the count, and their campaign websites contain no personal material.

A reddit thread about this seems to have noticed that many candidates have their address as South Derbyshire, including candidates in London and Manchester. At least one candidate in for an English seat lives in Gibraltar.

Even if they are all real people, the number of paper candidates should really call into question anything talking about the Reform vote share - it seems that a large number of their votes are for virtually non-existent candidates who would never campaign for more in those constituencies.
Couldn’t this be potentially fraud? Their Short Money funding is based partially on total vote share so it could be a nice little earner.
I’ve decided I should be on the pardon list if that’s still in the works

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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by dyqik » Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:31 pm

lpm wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:25 pm
A candidate must presumably provide evidence they are 18 and a citizen.

There must be some ID check. Would be hilarious if you need ID to vote but not to stand.
Being on the electoral register somewhere would suffice for the first. The number of candidates from certain places raises the possibility of corruption or hacking in certain localities in getting them on the electoral register there.

After that, I doubt the guy from Gibraltar flew to the constituency to show ID in person.

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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by dyqik » Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:33 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:27 pm
dyqik wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:16 pm
The Byline Times is asking questions about the existence of up to 115 Reform candidates, as they appear to have no online presence, those checked did not turn up for hustings or the count, and their campaign websites contain no personal material.

A reddit thread about this seems to have noticed that many candidates have their address as South Derbyshire, including candidates in London and Manchester. At least one candidate in for an English seat lives in Gibraltar.

Even if they are all real people, the number of paper candidates should really call into question anything talking about the Reform vote share - it seems that a large number of their votes are for virtually non-existent candidates who would never campaign for more in those constituencies.
Couldn’t this be potentially fraud? Their Short Money funding is based partially on total vote share so it could be a nice little earner.
It'd involve fraudulent candidacy declarations and nominations, so definitely extremely serious fraud.

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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by dyqik » Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:47 pm

dyqik wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:31 pm
lpm wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:25 pm
A candidate must presumably provide evidence they are 18 and a citizen.

There must be some ID check. Would be hilarious if you need ID to vote but not to stand.
Being on the electoral register somewhere would suffice for the first. The number of candidates from certain places raises the possibility of corruption or hacking in certain localities in getting them on the electoral register there.

After that, I doubt the guy from Gibraltar flew to the constituency to show ID in person.
Another fraud option is that they are real people on the electoral register, but didn't know they were standing.

But them being paper candidates used to drive up the vote share is the more likely option. What that does for short money, I don't know.

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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by Fishnut » Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:52 pm

The guy from Gibraltar was running in Bristol South. He got 14.3% of the vote (the tory got 11.4%). In North Somerset our reform candidate was 19 years old and had moved to the area from Cyprus with his family in 2018. He got 10.4% of the vote.
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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by dyqik » Sat Jul 06, 2024 7:01 pm

lpm wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:25 pm
A candidate must presumably provide evidence they are 18 and a citizen.

There must be some ID check. Would be hilarious if you need ID to vote but not to stand.
You don't need to supply ID to stand, according to https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/ ... ion-papers

And while papers have to be delivered by hand, they don't have to be delivered in person.

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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by TimW » Sat Jul 06, 2024 7:06 pm

It's not Farage's fault.

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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by dyqik » Sat Jul 06, 2024 7:13 pm

TimW wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 7:06 pm
It's not Farage's fault.
I'm sure all actions, legal or otherwise, were carried out without his knowledge or permission.


Just like Henry II and the murder of Thomas Becket.

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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by dyqik » Sat Jul 06, 2024 7:15 pm

dyqik wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:33 pm
Stranger Mouse wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:27 pm
Couldn’t this be potentially fraud? Their Short Money funding is based partially on total vote share so it could be a nice little earner.
It'd involve fraudulent candidacy declarations and nominations, so definitely extremely serious fraud.
(Paper candidates wouldn't be fraudulent though)

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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by Stranger Mouse » Sat Jul 06, 2024 7:58 pm

dyqik wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:47 pm
dyqik wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:31 pm
lpm wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:25 pm
A candidate must presumably provide evidence they are 18 and a citizen.

There must be some ID check. Would be hilarious if you need ID to vote but not to stand.
Being on the electoral register somewhere would suffice for the first. The number of candidates from certain places raises the possibility of corruption or hacking in certain localities in getting them on the electoral register there.

After that, I doubt the guy from Gibraltar flew to the constituency to show ID in person.
Another fraud option is that they are real people on the electoral register, but didn't know they were standing.

But them being paper candidates used to drive up the vote share is the more likely option. What that does for short money, I don't know.
There’s a ceiling on Short Money because they didn’t get 6 MPs. If not for that 4 million votes would turn into quite a bit of cash at around £40 for every 200 votes

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/re ... s/sn01663/
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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by TimW » Sun Jul 07, 2024 7:02 am

Apparently Reform have a bit of a bridgehead in Derby (archived Telegraph article) so maybe they got mobilised to form an army of paper candidates from that area.

ETA: https://www.reformderby.uk/

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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by jimbob » Mon Jul 08, 2024 11:46 am

He looks real
unnamed.png
unnamed.png (427.14 KiB) Viewed 744 times
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by lpm » Mon Jul 08, 2024 11:51 am

Basic maths:

Reform got 4 million votes. If 0.015% of voters are so enthusiastic they are prepared to be a candidate then Reform have all the constituencies covered.

1% of Reform candidates were disavowed for being racists or betrayed Farage. How many candidates can be expected to be so incompetent or lazy they didn't show up to anything? Another 1%? 5%? If you dig hard it is not unexpected you'll find non entities who did nothing.

What percentage of social media users have photo shopped their cover photo? How many are comically bad that you giggle over them?

This conspiracy theory is fundamentally far fetched.
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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by lpm » Mon Jul 08, 2024 11:58 am

I've just checked the video and in my constituency the Green candidate failed to show up for the 4 a.m. declaration.

Nor did she attend hustings or have a social media presence.

This byline times "investigation" relies on none of us having any context or prior knowledge of how common it is.
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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by jimbob » Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:08 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2024 11:51 am
Basic maths:

Reform got 4 million votes. If 0.015% of voters are so enthusiastic they are prepared to be a candidate then Reform have all the constituencies covered.

1% of Reform candidates were disavowed for being racists or betrayed Farage. How many candidates can be expected to be so incompetent or lazy they didn't show up to anything? Another 1%? 5%? If you dig hard it is not unexpected you'll find non entities who did nothing.

What percentage of social media users have photo shopped their cover photo? How many are comically bad that you giggle over them?

This conspiracy theory is fundamentally far fetched.
It seems utterly bizarre, for the reasons you gave, but surely anyone who cares enough about a party to stand for election, would've been campaigning in some capacity as presumably they would be activists.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by dyqik » Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:35 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2024 11:58 am
I've just checked the video and in my constituency the Green candidate failed to show up for the 4 a.m. declaration.

Nor did she attend hustings or have a social media presence.

This byline times "investigation" relies on none of us having any context or prior knowledge of how common it is.
The Byline Times article gives stats on the social media percentages for Reform candidates vs averages and other parties.

As for hustings and counts, I doubt there are any statistics available for that.

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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by dyqik » Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:46 pm

My personal guess is that there's probably some dodgy nomination forms, and a lot of paper candidates.

The number of paper candidates is in itself important, because that demonstrates that Reform support is pretty ephemeral, driven by Farage's media presence, and with no real structure behind it.

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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by lpm » Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:56 pm

dyqik wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:35 pm

The Byline Times article gives stats on the social media percentages for Reform candidates vs averages and other parties.
But does not give the ranges, which is what matters instead of the averages.

It would be interesting to analyse paper candidates for LD and Green to get context.

Reform's "membership" is now 65,000 I.e. 100 per constituency. Their next task is to turn those enthusiasts into actual local teams, campaigning locally instead of relying on Farage. I doubt they'll achieve it, the LDs still struggle in much of the country.
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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by Gfamily » Mon Jul 08, 2024 1:10 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 7:58 pm
There’s a ceiling on Short Money because they didn’t get 6 MPs. If not for that 4 million votes would turn into quite a bit of cash at around £40 for every 200 votes

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/re ... s/sn01663/
Worth their while paying a Tory £200k to defect, given that it would potentially unlock £800k in Short Money (I don't know whether the money only applies to votes and elected members in a GE)
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by dyqik » Mon Jul 08, 2024 1:15 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:56 pm
dyqik wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:35 pm

The Byline Times article gives stats on the social media percentages for Reform candidates vs averages and other parties.
But does not give the ranges, which is what matters instead of the averages.

It would be interesting to analyse paper candidates for LD and Green to get context.

Reform's "membership" is now 65,000 I.e. 100 per constituency. Their next task is to turn those enthusiasts into actual local teams, campaigning locally instead of relying on Farage. I doubt they'll achieve it, the LDs still struggle in much of the country.
It gives averages and extrema. Which is a kind of range.

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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by Gfamily » Mon Jul 08, 2024 1:34 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2024 1:10 pm
Stranger Mouse wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 7:58 pm
There’s a ceiling on Short Money because they didn’t get 6 MPs. If not for that 4 million votes would turn into quite a bit of cash at around £40 for every 200 votes

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/re ... s/sn01663/
Worth their while paying a Tory £200k to defect, given that it would potentially unlock £800k in Short Money (I don't know whether the money only applies to votes and elected members in a GE)
It does, so not worth it.
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by dyqik » Mon Jul 08, 2024 4:00 pm

Does the UK place responsibility on the candidate for campaign materials produced in their name? Something that works like the US's "I'm Chiseljawed McGopper, and I approve this message" in requiring that a candidate's campaign takes ownership of the materials (rather than the central party)?

The apparent widespread use of AI campaign materials for paper candidates suggests that something like that might be necessary, as it looks as if Reform made the first steps to running a centralized online campaign for paper candidates that didn't take part in the campaigning at all.

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Re: Fake Reform Candidates

Post by Fishnut » Mon Jul 08, 2024 4:05 pm

Yes. I do know the full details but all campaign material - including stakeboards - need to have an imprint that says who's responsible (normally the candidate, I think). You need an election agent and they have to make sure that everything is done legally (expenditure is within limits and recorded, for eg). The agent is also responsible for making sure all the paperwork is filed correctly.
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