Yes, seems possible that he fits a school shooter profile rather than a fanatic profile.lpm wrote: ↑Mon Jul 15, 2024 9:57 amDonald J Trump was a registered Democrat for 8 years. It doesn't mean anything.
The murderer doesn't seem to have any political motive, though.
I think his motive was probably captured perfectly by the recollection of a former classmate: "He's just not a guy I really think about." Well, you're sure as hell gonna remember him now.
Trump Assassination Attempt
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Re: Trump Assassination Attempt
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Re: Trump Assassination Attempt
My American friends are emigrating to Canada. Just in time by the look of it.
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Re: Trump Assassination Attempt
If you come at the King, you'd better not miss.
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Re: Trump Assassination Attempt
Sorry I put this on the indecision thread in error.
Police were aware of the shooter on the roof for almost 30 minutes before any shots were fired
https://www.yahoo.com/news/gunman-spott ... 14658.html
Police were aware of the shooter on the roof for almost 30 minutes before any shots were fired
https://www.yahoo.com/news/gunman-spott ... 14658.html
I’ve decided I should be on the pardon list if that’s still in the works
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Re: Trump Assassination Attempt
Apparently the shooting has not helped his pollingStranger Mouse wrote: ↑Sun Jul 14, 2024 6:45 amI’m watching the video and after the shots a guy behind Trump on the right side of the screen appears to pull out a handgun. That doesn’t make sense (no guns allowed on entry and the Secret Service aren’t paying attention to him) so I presume I am incorrect. Can anyone else make it out?
I’m not sure this will necessarily helps Trump. His base will be motivated but it is possible that the way Trump plays it could alienate independents. It could go either way.
Thoughts and prayers for Jodi Foster
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-polling-shooting/
I’ve decided I should be on the pardon list if that’s still in the works
Re: Trump Assassination Attempt
WTF? Trump is getting spectacular polling. Way ahead in WI, PA and MI.
Better than at this stage in 2016 and 2020, by a significant margin. And the convention and assassination upswing isn't even in the numbers yet.
Better than at this stage in 2016 and 2020, by a significant margin. And the convention and assassination upswing isn't even in the numbers yet.
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Re: Trump Assassination Attempt
Nate Silver's model, which has a spectacular record on predicting presidential elections, currently gives Biden a 54% chance of winning, using the latest state-by-state polls, as at today 17 July 2024. But he has also said in the past that there's a lot of uncertainty that starts going down after the conventions.
The press that Trump is a shoo-in seems to be misplaced, at least at the moment. Toss-up is nearer description of the present situation. But that will doubtless reflects the history that there is a lot of uncertainty this far before an election.
The press that Trump is a shoo-in seems to be misplaced, at least at the moment. Toss-up is nearer description of the present situation. But that will doubtless reflects the history that there is a lot of uncertainty this far before an election.
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Re: Trump Assassination Attempt
The link I used specifically referred to a poll that did take into account the shooting. Whether it will be an outlier when further polls come out I don’t know.
I’ve decided I should be on the pardon list if that’s still in the works
Re: Trump Assassination Attempt
YouGov 12 July
Trump lead
WI +5
MI +2
PA +3
That's game set and match.
For added humiliation:
AZ +7
GA +4
NV +4
NC +4
This was the state of play before assassination and convention bumps. With Biden completely out of levers to pull.
There's insane copium on the Dem side, denying polls and thinking voters will suddenly discover Trump's true nature. Spoiler: they know Trump's true nature and they are voting for him.
Trump lead
WI +5
MI +2
PA +3
That's game set and match.
For added humiliation:
AZ +7
GA +4
NV +4
NC +4
This was the state of play before assassination and convention bumps. With Biden completely out of levers to pull.
There's insane copium on the Dem side, denying polls and thinking voters will suddenly discover Trump's true nature. Spoiler: they know Trump's true nature and they are voting for him.
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Re: Trump Assassination Attempt
Be aware that 538 does not just take polls. It adds in "fundamentals" - basically the strong economy - which boosts Biden's chances. Implicitly 538 assumes Biden steadily rises in the coming months thanks to factors that were relevant in previous elections.IvanV wrote: ↑Wed Jul 17, 2024 2:26 pmNate Silver's model, which has a spectacular record on predicting presidential elections, currently gives Biden a 54% chance of winning, using the latest state-by-state polls, as at today 17 July 2024. But he has also said in the past that there's a lot of uncertainty that starts going down after the conventions.
The press that Trump is a shoo-in seems to be misplaced, at least at the moment. Toss-up is nearer description of the present situation. But that will doubtless reflects the history that there is a lot of uncertainty this far before an election.
This is why 538 is such an outlier vs other models.
Personally I think it's mad to think this election will be about the economy and policy.
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Re: Trump Assassination Attempt
YouGov and Harris also reporting very little change after the assassination attempt.Stranger Mouse wrote: ↑Wed Jul 17, 2024 9:10 amApparently the shooting has not helped his pollingStranger Mouse wrote: ↑Sun Jul 14, 2024 6:45 amI’m watching the video and after the shots a guy behind Trump on the right side of the screen appears to pull out a handgun. That doesn’t make sense (no guns allowed on entry and the Secret Service aren’t paying attention to him) so I presume I am incorrect. Can anyone else make it out?
I’m not sure this will necessarily helps Trump. His base will be motivated but it is possible that the way Trump plays it could alienate independents. It could go either way.
Thoughts and prayers for Jodi Foster
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-polling-shooting/
It’s a highly polarised electorate which has already formed an opinion on each of the candidates. Also, Trump’s survival was due to luck rather than anything he did.
Re: Trump Assassination Attempt
Latest unconfirmed reporting is that the murderer's search history included finding out where & when for both Trump and Biden events.
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Re: Trump Assassination Attempt
Which would support the seeking notoriety motive. Not typical political violence as such
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three
now I sin till ten past three
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Re: Trump Assassination Attempt
In a way it is about the economy, but in a different way to normal. People think the economy in the US is doing badly. The statistics say they're wrong, but the statistics don't see what's in their pockets. Americans feel poor.
If truth is many-sided, mendacity is many-tongued
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Re: Trump Assassination Attempt
It depends upon the statistics. For the electorate the most relevant statistic is probably inflation adjusted median household income, and as of September 2023 it’s lower than in 2019: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1c2Z7El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑Thu Jul 18, 2024 7:22 amIn a way it is about the economy, but in a different way to normal. People think the economy in the US is doing badly. The statistics say they're wrong, but the statistics don't see what's in their pockets. Americans feel poor.
The important political question about the economy is ‘are you better off now than four years ago’ and for average households the answer is likely to be that they’re not.
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Re: Trump Assassination Attempt
That's interesting. In 2004, the number was worse than in 2000, and yet Dubya got reëlected. In 2012, the number was worse than in 2008, and Obama got reëlected. In 2020, the number was substantially better than 2016, and Trump was ousted.
If truth is many-sided, mendacity is many-tongued
Re: Trump Assassination Attempt
2020 was, of course, during the pandemic. The number was better, but the amount of money going into people's pockets to cover that number was much worse.El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑Thu Jul 18, 2024 11:44 amThat's interesting. In 2004, the number was worse than in 2000, and yet Dubya got reëlected. In 2012, the number was worse than in 2008, and Obama got reëlected. In 2020, the number was substantially better than 2016, and Trump was ousted.
Plus, it was Trump.
Even now, the pandemic is still affecting how people think.
Re: Trump Assassination Attempt
BBC News - Republicans wear ear bandages in 'solidarity' with Trump - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cldy39vpv4qo
This is not true. It CANNOT be true.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cldy39vpv4qo
This is not true. It CANNOT be true.
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Re: Trump Assassination Attempt
I mean, it's the USA in 2024. I'm surprised they're not using punch and judy to replay the events
If truth is many-sided, mendacity is many-tongued
Re: Trump Assassination Attempt
Decades of lead poisoning is the only logical explanation.
Re: Trump Assassination Attempt
Their hearts really aren't in it...
If they *really* wanted to show their devotion, they'd be shooting holes in each others' ears
If they *really* wanted to show their devotion, they'd be shooting holes in each others' ears
Re: Trump Assassination Attempt
The Life of Brian made flesh...
Re: Trump Assassination Attempt
Or cutting them with shards of glass. Or carrying bags of fake blood in their hats. Someone might even find that Roger Water's jacket with a plastic knife in the back and a bag of fake blood in the pocket that you could squeeze to make the 'wound' bleed.
</conspiracy theories>