Trump Assassination Attempt

[Woodchopper]

According to rhe BBC the shooter was a registered Republican so that should put paid to the leftie activist claims but probably won't.

Donald J Trump was a registered Democrat for 8 years. It doesn't mean anything.

The murderer doesn't seem to have any political motive, though.

I think his motive was probably captured perfectly by the recollection of a former classmate: "He's just not a guy I really think about." Well, you're sure as hell gonna remember him now.

Yes, seems possible that he fits a school shooter profile rather than a fanatic profile.

[Tristan]

But Trump has his weird animal cunning. His instinctive was "fight fight fight" but he promptly switched to "unite". He knows the end game is to play it as strong and magnanimous.

Yup. He's learning.

Screenshot 2024-07-15 163406.png (38.87 KiB) Viewed 3498 times

[Tessa K]

My American friends are emigrating to Canada. Just in time by the look of it.

[wilsontown]

If you come at the King, you'd better not miss.

[Stranger Mouse]

Sorry I put this on the indecision thread in error.

Police were aware of the shooter on the roof for almost 30 minutes before any shots were fired

https://www.yahoo.com/news/gunman-spott ... 14658.html

[Stranger Mouse]

I’m watching the video and after the shots a guy behind Trump on the right side of the screen appears to pull out a handgun. That doesn’t make sense (no guns allowed on entry and the Secret Service aren’t paying attention to him) so I presume I am incorrect. Can anyone else make it out?

I’m not sure this will necessarily helps Trump. His base will be motivated but it is possible that the way Trump plays it could alienate independents. It could go either way.

Thoughts and prayers for Jodi Foster

Apparently the shooting has not helped his polling

https://www.rawstory.com/trump-polling-shooting/

[lpm]

WTF? Trump is getting spectacular polling. Way ahead in WI, PA and MI.

Better than at this stage in 2016 and 2020, by a significant margin. And the convention and assassination upswing isn't even in the numbers yet.

[IvanV]

Nate Silver's model, which has a spectacular record on predicting presidential elections, currently gives Biden a 54% chance of winning, using the latest state-by-state polls, as at today 17 July 2024. But he has also said in the past that there's a lot of uncertainty that starts going down after the conventions.

The press that Trump is a shoo-in seems to be misplaced, at least at the moment. Toss-up is nearer description of the present situation. But that will doubtless reflects the history that there is a lot of uncertainty this far before an election.

[Stranger Mouse]

WTF? Trump is getting spectacular polling. Way ahead in WI, PA and MI.

Better than at this stage in 2016 and 2020, by a significant margin. And the convention and assassination upswing isn't even in the numbers yet.

The link I used specifically referred to a poll that did take into account the shooting. Whether it will be an outlier when further polls come out I don’t know.

[lpm]

YouGov 12 July

Trump lead

WI +5
MI +2
PA +3

That's game set and match.

For added humiliation:

AZ +7
GA +4
NV +4
NC +4

This was the state of play before assassination and convention bumps. With Biden completely out of levers to pull.

There's insane copium on the Dem side, denying polls and thinking voters will suddenly discover Trump's true nature. Spoiler: they know Trump's true nature and they are voting for him.

[lpm]

Nate Silver's model, which has a spectacular record on predicting presidential elections, currently gives Biden a 54% chance of winning, using the latest state-by-state polls, as at today 17 July 2024. But he has also said in the past that there's a lot of uncertainty that starts going down after the conventions.

The press that Trump is a shoo-in seems to be misplaced, at least at the moment. Toss-up is nearer description of the present situation. But that will doubtless reflects the history that there is a lot of uncertainty this far before an election.

Be aware that 538 does not just take polls. It adds in "fundamentals" - basically the strong economy - which boosts Biden's chances. Implicitly 538 assumes Biden steadily rises in the coming months thanks to factors that were relevant in previous elections.

This is why 538 is such an outlier vs other models.

Personally I think it's mad to think this election will be about the economy and policy.

[Woodchopper]

I’m watching the video and after the shots a guy behind Trump on the right side of the screen appears to pull out a handgun. That doesn’t make sense (no guns allowed on entry and the Secret Service aren’t paying attention to him) so I presume I am incorrect. Can anyone else make it out?

I’m not sure this will necessarily helps Trump. His base will be motivated but it is possible that the way Trump plays it could alienate independents. It could go either way.

Thoughts and prayers for Jodi Foster

Apparently the shooting has not helped his polling

https://www.rawstory.com/trump-polling-shooting/

YouGov and Harris also reporting very little change after the assassination attempt.

It’s a highly polarised electorate which has already formed an opinion on each of the candidates. Also, Trump’s survival was due to luck rather than anything he did.

[lpm]

Latest unconfirmed reporting is that the murderer's search history included finding out where & when for both Trump and Biden events.

[Grumble]

Which would support the seeking notoriety motive. Not typical political violence as such

[El Pollo Diablo]

Personally I think it's mad to think this election will be about the economy and policy.

In a way it is about the economy, but in a different way to normal. People think the economy in the US is doing badly. The statistics say they're wrong, but the statistics don't see what's in their pockets. Americans feel poor.

[Woodchopper]

Personally I think it's mad to think this election will be about the economy and policy.

In a way it is about the economy, but in a different way to normal. People think the economy in the US is doing badly. The statistics say they're wrong, but the statistics don't see what's in their pockets. Americans feel poor.

It depends upon the statistics. For the electorate the most relevant statistic is probably inflation adjusted median household income, and as of September 2023 it’s lower than in 2019: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1c2Z7

The important political question about the economy is ‘are you better off now than four years ago’ and for average households the answer is likely to be that they’re not.

[El Pollo Diablo]

That's interesting. In 2004, the number was worse than in 2000, and yet Dubya got reëlected. In 2012, the number was worse than in 2008, and Obama got reëlected. In 2020, the number was substantially better than 2016, and Trump was ousted.

[dyqik]

That's interesting. In 2004, the number was worse than in 2000, and yet Dubya got reëlected. In 2012, the number was worse than in 2008, and Obama got reëlected. In 2020, the number was substantially better than 2016, and Trump was ousted.

2020 was, of course, during the pandemic. The number was better, but the amount of money going into people's pockets to cover that number was much worse.

Plus, it was Trump.

Even now, the pandemic is still affecting how people think.

[lpm]

BBC News - Republicans wear ear bandages in 'solidarity' with Trump - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cldy39vpv4qo

This is not true. It CANNOT be true.

[El Pollo Diablo]

I mean, it's the USA in 2024. I'm surprised they're not using punch and judy to replay the events

[headshot]

Decades of lead poisoning is the only logical explanation.

[dyqik]

Decades of lead poisoning is the only logical explanation.

Plus self selection. Only Trump cult members remain in the GOP.

[philbo]

Their hearts really aren't in it...

If they *really* wanted to show their devotion, they'd be shooting holes in each others' ears

[IvanV]

The Life of Brian made flesh...

[dyqik]

Their hearts really aren't in it...

If they *really* wanted to show their devotion, they'd be shooting holes in each others' ears

Or cutting them with shards of glass. Or carrying bags of fake blood in their hats. Someone might even find that Roger Water's jacket with a plastic knife in the back and a bag of fake blood in the pocket that you could squeeze to make the 'wound' bleed.

</conspiracy theories>