After Corbyn

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Who will be the next Labour leader?

Angela Rayner
4
5%
John McDonnell
2
2%
Keir Starmer
44
52%
Rebecca Long-Bailey
8
10%
Emily Thornberry
0
No votes
Clive Lewis
1
1%
Yvette Cooper
17
20%
Laura Pidcock
1
1%
Clive Lewis
0
No votes
Tony Blair
7
8%
 
Total votes: 84

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GeenDienst
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Re: After Corbyn

Post by GeenDienst » Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:51 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Tue Dec 10, 2019 12:16 pm
Well, whoever comes next, it's certainly not going to be Jonathan Ashworth.
Imagine an accumulator comes up with him in...

Long-Bailey is bookies favourite, closely followed by Starmer (Current Bet365), though SkyBet has them the other way around. No clear trends for odds shortening or drifting across the dozen or so bookies.

Starmer 3
Long Bailey 11/4
Rayner 9
Cooper 14
Thornberry 12
Pidcock 12
McDonnell 16
Lewis 20
Nandy 25
D Miliband 28
J Phllips 20
D Butler 50
J Ashworth 66
S Kinnock 66

Assume ones with just numbers are "X/1", don't do bettage,
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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: After Corbyn

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:53 pm

I'm f.cking amazed that Cooper is that high up tbh. Blimey. Also Lisa & Andy as well. Who'd've thought they'd be up there.
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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GeenDienst
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Re: After Corbyn

Post by GeenDienst » Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:56 pm

Cooper's odds are quite constant, 9-16 across the bookies. But, early days, and there's no contest yet. I suspect there'll be a lot of movement when the race is declared and when the runners and riders become more clear.

It's going to be Long-Bailey, though.

When do we start the "After Long Bailey" thread?
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GeenDienst
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Re: After Corbyn

Post by GeenDienst » Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:09 pm

There's a quite long article on Momentum here, that reinforces the need for any new leader to be able to deal with them. A telling quote from Lansman:
“We are going to be here long after Jeremy Corbyn and I are both dead.”.
Also, this is interesting:
In private, there is already live debate among Momentum activists over whether Corbyn’s successor should be a “true believer” such as shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey or shadow employment rights secretary Laura Pidcock, or a more experienced figure such as shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer or shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry. Provided the latter pass the left’s litmus test, some say, they could yet pursue “Corbynism without Corbyn”.
It would be interesting to see how Starmer or Thornberry could manage that "litmus test" and emerge as a leader people see as their own person.
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Iron Magpie
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Re: After Corbyn

Post by Iron Magpie » Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:58 pm

I'd like Labour to go for a woman leader this time but not Thornberry because her alienation of white van man will be remembered far into the future and frankly it did show what contempt she has for ordinary Joe/Jo Bloggs. I would say Cooper but she is tarred by her association with the Blaggards, ahem sorry, Blairites. Which leaves, for me, the utterly outstanding Angela Rayner. Popular, smart and possibly someone that would make Johnson very uncomfortable purely on the basis of his comments about single mothers. I also think to a degree like Thatcher she could grab votes just on the basis of being a woman/an exceptionally successful single mother. Plus she has no skeletons as far as I'm aware although that won't stop the tories making up sh.t about her as is their usual trick.
She's also quite sexy...which is always nice, especially when dealing with a known womaniser like BJ...she would lure him into something even the tories would blush at.*

*That's if tories do blush....I'm not so sure they have the conscience to actually be embarrassed by anything but one lives in hope.

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GeenDienst
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Re: After Corbyn

Post by GeenDienst » Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:40 pm

What has Rayner actually done, apart from float your boat?

It'll be Long Bailey anyway, the Momentum continuity candidate.
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Iron Magpie
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Re: After Corbyn

Post by Iron Magpie » Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:59 pm

GeenDienst wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:40 pm
What has Rayner actually done, apart from float your boat?

It'll be Long Bailey anyway, the Momentum continuity candidate.
One could quite easily ask the same question of most candidates. Having only become an MP in 2015 she has had little time to f.ck anything up which is also a bonus. Personally I don't think too many people are overly concerned with "What" any mp has done as long as they haven't made any really awful mistakes with which the media can beat them.

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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: After Corbyn

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:08 pm

Looking at the polling, my thoughts are that, given the typical large level of wrong on this forum, the next leader may well be Emily Thornberry. The Johnson 2024 Presidential bid should be fun.
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Re: After Corbyn

Post by GeenDienst » Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:12 pm

McCluskey will probably be leader by then, voted in by a narrow majority of the 7 remaining members.

But his predecessor is certainly going to have to be female. The pressure to stop being the party that has never done this will be overwhelming. This could leaves the way open for Starmer to fight the next election, once the first leader has been shredded in the latest party civil war.
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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: After Corbyn

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:15 pm

Whatever happened to that ex-soldier, Dan Jarvis? He's a nice man. Could imagine him marrying your daughter, etc.
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Re: After Corbyn

Post by GeenDienst » Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:19 pm

Running Sheffield, one of those who got a good gig while it was going. Still MP for Barnsley Central, it appears, standing again this time. Majority ~15k last time out.

And white van Thornberry is a depressing enough prospect, but a Barnsley supporter?
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Re: After Corbyn

Post by mike_in_the_north » Thu Dec 12, 2019 2:31 pm

The annoying thing is that Labour really should be a certainty today.

I reckon that there's a lot of people (alright, maybe just me) who aren't especially committed to either of the main parties, but just want someone vaguely competent to run things. So, right through the '80s the Tories kept winning - not because people really liked them but because they reckoned Labour didn't have what it took.

And then, when everyone was sick to death of Tory sleaze, Labour looked electable again and won three times. I know it's fashionable to hate Blair now, but he didn't have to be perfect, just a better bet than Howard, Hague, Duncan Smith. And he was.

And now? With a bloke like Johnson to beat, it should be easy, but I have a sinking feeling that we're in for a sizeable Tory majority.

I'm going to be sitting there with the booze and crisps tonight, but I don't expect to be celebrating...

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Martin Y
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Re: After Corbyn

Post by Martin Y » Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:15 pm

I can get right behind booze and crisps. That's a winning formula for watching the culmination of the perfect storm.

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Re: After Corbyn

Post by murmur » Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:29 pm

mike_in_the_north wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 2:31 pm
The annoying thing is that Labour really should be a certainty today.

I reckon that there's a lot of people (alright, maybe just me) who aren't especially committed to either of the main parties, but just want someone vaguely competent to run things. So, right through the '80s the Tories kept winning - not because people really liked them but because they reckoned Labour didn't have what it took.

And then, when everyone was sick to death of Tory sleaze, Labour looked electable again and won three times. I know it's fashionable to hate Blair now, but he didn't have to be perfect, just a better bet than Howard, Hague, Duncan Smith. And he was.

And now? With a bloke like Johnson to beat, it should be easy, but I have a sinking feeling that we're in for a sizeable Tory majority.

I'm going to be sitting there with the booze and crisps tonight, but I don't expect to be celebrating...
Thing is far too many folk are taken in by Johnson's schtick: there was a piece in the Graun the other day, interviewing folk in Grimsby after Johnson had visted, in which one bloke opined that Johnson was just a normal working class lad...Think about it...And then throw in that the same geezer thought that every PM had been to public school anyway.

As I've said before Brecht's gag about needing a new electorate is sometimes less of a gag than he meany it to be.
It's so much more attractive inside the moral kiosk

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GeenDienst
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Re: After Corbyn

Post by GeenDienst » Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:04 pm

OK, so Corbyn concedes, and then resigns.

If he doesn't a big hitter really has to step up, as in tomorrow. Starmer? Thornberry? Backbone delivery for you, sign here...

Labour's offering was sh.t, and roundly rejected, which every f.cker except those c.nts knew was coming years ago.

So f.ck off Corbyn, and take McCluskey* that that utter c.nt Milne (for a start) with you. Then you can start to rebuild so as to care for all those people you pretended to care about, while Mr Policiesareimportantnotpersponalities squatted on the f.cking leader position for no other reason than he f.cking could. f.ck, he really really must have wanted to be PM. I so feel his pain.


*Hmmmmm. Turns out he's the money.
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Re: After Corbyn

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:04 am

I always think Jess Phillips talks good shop and seems like a real person. Hope she's thinking seriously about running.

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Re: After Corbyn

Post by GeenDienst » Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:08 am

Seems Lansman thinks Corbyn "won't overstay his welcome", although apparently he thinks Corbyn should stay until January. Not sure he specified which year. He also think s that Corbyn "was always a reluctant leader". If there was a shred of truth in that then Jez would be watching a much better result unfold from the portable in his allotment shed.

And McDonnell:
Asked whether Mr Corbyn would resign, Mr McDonnell said: “We’ll see the results in the morning and then decisions will be made, I’m sure then. Let’s see the results. We’ll make the appropriate decisions. We’ll always make the decisions in the best interests of our party.”
Well, the f.ck they do. But it's looking good for a prompt-ish resignation.

And the first shots in the civil war, Alan Johnson (ask your kids) against Lansman:
"Corbyn was a disaster on the doorstep. Everyone knew Corbyn couldn't lead the working class out of a paper bag.

"Now Jon's developed this Momentum group, this party within a party, aiming to keep the purity. The culture of betrayal goes on.

"You'll hear it now more and more as this little cult get their act together.

"I want them out of the party. I want Momentum gone. Go back to your student politics and your little left-wing... I'm saying what I want.
Last decade's man against yesterday's man.
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Re: After Corbyn

Post by GeenDienst » Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:13 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:04 am
I always think Jess Phillips talks good shop and seems like a real person. Hope she's thinking seriously about running.
If Jess Phillips got it, not only would I start to vote for them again, I would be back left hand handle on her palanquin, so her wonderful feet never needed to touch the soiled earth as she rallied the once faithful to actually change the country in good ways, in an actually happening way, that may lack certain elements of ideological purity, but would get lots of people making it happen, in a happening actual way.

OK, I may have been drinking. But you get the drift.

Next but one or two leader. Save her for when she can win.

And I'd frankly vote for anyone who told Abbott to f.ck off.
...Ms Phillips said: “I roundly told her to f.ck off.” Asked what Ms Abbott did in response, Ms Phillips said: “She f.cked off."
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Gentleman Jim
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Re: After Corbyn

Post by Gentleman Jim » Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:09 am

OK So how many of the whingers nice people here are actually members and so have a say in who follows Corbyn?
I will have my vote as I have for years now
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Re: After Corbyn

Post by Grumble » Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:52 am

Gentleman Jim wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:09 am
OK So how many of the whingers nice people here are actually members and so have a say in who follows Corbyn?
I will have my vote as I have for years now
I was but left because of Corbyn. I might rejoin now.
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Re: After Corbyn

Post by lpm » Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:03 am

It's pretty simple.

England has always been a right wing country. It has become even more right wing in the last 5 years.

The new leader will face a populist Prime Minister but a Conservative government. Johnson will attempt to preserve his weird new populist coalition but will f.ck it up, while the Conservatives will attempt to pursue their standard right wing policies.

There will be space in the centre to win in 2024.

Labour simply picks the most right wing candidate as leader, tries to be organised and profession, and writes a NewNew Labour manifesto.
I'll miss him after he's died in the pandemic

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Gentleman Jim
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Re: After Corbyn

Post by Gentleman Jim » Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:04 am

Grumble wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:52 am
Gentleman Jim wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:09 am
OK So how many of the whingers nice people here are actually members and so have a say in who follows Corbyn?
I will have my vote as I have for years now
I was but left because of Corbyn. I might rejoin now.
Ah, like supporting a team but if they start to lose, you leave
True friends stab you in the front

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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: After Corbyn

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:05 am

I rejoined half an hour ago
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: After Corbyn

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:05 am

Gentleman Jim wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:04 am
Grumble wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:52 am
Gentleman Jim wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:09 am
OK So how many of the whingers nice people here are actually members and so have a say in who follows Corbyn?
I will have my vote as I have for years now
I was but left because of Corbyn. I might rejoin now.
Ah, like supporting a team but if they start to lose, you leave
No, more like supporting a team, but if they start getting managed by racist fuckholes, you leave.
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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Re: After Corbyn

Post by GeenDienst » Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:09 am

So. cold light of day. Labour have fewer seats than 1983. Abject, humiliating failure. And he's trying to hang around to secure the succession. From what I've read that he's said, he could be hanging around like a bad smell for months or years.

Labour are a zombie party while he hangs around. It's going to take time to become a credible party of government again, if that ever happens, and the clock is ticking towards the next election right now.

They need a date for the contest announced immediately, and it has to be soon. If Corbyn doesn't agree to start that process today, then he needs to be challenged.
Margaret Hodge, who held her London seat, tweeted: “Corbyn talking about a period of ‘reflection. I’ve reflected. You failed. Please stand down.”
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