Should Scotland be independent?

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plodder
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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by plodder » Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:55 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:41 pm
plodder wrote:
Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:27 pm
Wrt regulatory reform, I'm no expert in banking law but these measures appear to discourage the reckless leveraged lending we saw in the US that led to the credit crunch:

https://www.whitecase.com/publications/ ... s-imminent
If the problem in the EU last time was caused by lending in the US, why do you believe that tighter rules about lending within the EU will protect their citizens from reckless lending in other countries?
It would make it less likely that another credit crunch happened, because it likely wouldn't be caused by a European Bank.
sheldrake wrote:
Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:41 pm
Nothing here would help Scotland cope with the sharp reduction in govt. income accompanied with the fiscal rules associated with Euro convergence.
That's why I've gently suggested you're just chuntering away without thinking, these are your points we're talking about here. Why not just stick to the obvious reduction in income Vs border issues?

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by sheldrake » Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:19 pm

plodder wrote:
Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:55 pm
It would make it less likely that another credit crunch happened, because it likely wouldn't be caused by a European Bank.
Credit crunches will still occur with these new rules. Increased reserve requirements will just mean they're more frequent but less intense.
That's why I've gently suggested you're just chuntering away without thinking, these are your points we're talking about here. Why not just stick to the obvious reduction in income Vs border issues?
Because the only party which claims to be campaigning for Scottish independence is doing nothing of the sort. And I think that's a fairly glaring problem that ought to be pointed out.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by plodder » Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:36 pm

And lots of people here are also pointing that out, and would presumably like to talk about it, but your non-sequeteurs (EU is a failed moribund trading bloc etc) are reducing the signal to noise ratio.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by sheldrake » Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:12 pm

plodder wrote:
Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:36 pm
And lots of people here are also pointing that out, and would presumably like to talk about it, but your non-sequeteurs (EU is a failed moribund trading bloc etc) are reducing the signal to noise ratio.
It's not a non-sequitur because leaving the UK and re-joining the EU are intrinsically linked, not least by the fact that the party campaigning to leave the UK has loudly and repeatedly insisted that their mandate for another referendum is based on 'remain' being more popular in Scotland.

If there is anybody here who concedes that Scotland would be ruined by trying to rejoin the EU on it's own and wants to talk about Scotland's prospects outside of both the UK and EU, have at it. So far several posters have suggested that Scotland could join the EU without undertaking to join the Euro, for example, which is nonsense.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by discovolante » Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:39 am

Hmmm

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... dependence
Britain’s governing Conservatives are sketching out a strategy to counter rising support for Scottish independence, with a memo circulated to a select group of people including Cabinet minister Michael Gove, according to people familiar with the discussions taking place.

The document from a political consultancy firm that works closely with the party looks at tactics to delay and then avoid a referendum in the event of a majority for the pro-independence Scottish National Party in next May’s elections, an outcome that looks increasingly likely.

Continuing to dismiss Scottish calls for another independence vote outright could be “counterproductive,” the memo said. Possible counter-measures include London handing more power to Edinburgh and ratifying a new settlement through a popular vote, and pressuring the European Union to nix the idea of Scotland rejoining the bloc as an independent country.
More at link.
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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Allo V Psycho » Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:12 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54965585

Boris does his little bit to help. Even the BBC seem a bit unimpressed.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:36 pm

Won't be long now, I expect.

I've gotta say, I'm not up on all the ins and outs, and in any case brexit will change the equation massively.

But I don't see how an independent Scotland could do any worse than being part of the failing UK, to be honest.

And thinking purely selfishly I quite like the idea of there being another non-f.cked country within a day's train journey of my mum as she enters her dotage, though I think the low countries have a slight edge.
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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by discovolante » Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:40 pm

Well, I suppose it does kind of show that you can succeed or fail depending on who is in charge down south and that person/party could change.

But it does feel a bit like the union is heading towards breakup at some point anyway, even if it takes I dunno, a couple of decades or whatever, and if that's the case allowing it to happen relatively soon* by democratic vote seems to make more sense than letting it die a slow painful death.

*although 'relatively soon' no doubt came and went a long time ago for some people.
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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Sciolus » Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:10 pm

I do find it extraordinary when arch-Brexiteers use exactly the same arguments against Scottish independence as Remainers use against Brexit, and vice versa.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Fishnut » Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:16 pm

Sciolus wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:10 pm
I do find it extraordinary when arch-Brexiteers use exactly the same arguments against Scottish independence as Remainers use against Brexit, and vice versa.
I was pro-remain and pro-keeping Scotland as part of the UK but times have changed. England seems determined to f.ck over the UK and if Scotland wants to leave then honestly I don't blame them. I don't know how the border would work if they joined the EU but we need to work that out for Eire/NI anyway so it's not like it's a unique sticking point.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by discovolante » Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:17 pm

I am SURE that when I was at one of the later anti-Brexit marches I was stood in front of some people who, when Nicola Sturgeon was talking and mentioned Scottish Independence, booed at her and said 'she's always going on about it, they lost the referendum, she needs to move on.' There might have been some irony there but I didn't detect any at all.
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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Sciolus » Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:24 pm

Fishnut wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:16 pm
Sciolus wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:10 pm
I do find it extraordinary when arch-Brexiteers use exactly the same arguments against Scottish independence as Remainers use against Brexit, and vice versa.
I was pro-remain and pro-keeping Scotland as part of the UK but times have changed. England seems determined to f.ck over the UK and if Scotland wants to leave then honestly I don't blame them. I don't know how the border would work if they joined the EU but we need to work that out for Eire/NI anyway so it's not like it's a unique sticking point.
That's pretty much my position. I'm certainly sympathetic to Scots wanting to get shot of the Westminster government. But the practical difficulties of Brexit would be a hundred times worse with Scottish independence. So I dunno.

I just can't help shouting "you hypocrite!" at all the cabinet ministers banging on about stronger together and all that.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by discovolante » Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:36 pm

Sciolus wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:24 pm
Fishnut wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:16 pm
Sciolus wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:10 pm
I do find it extraordinary when arch-Brexiteers use exactly the same arguments against Scottish independence as Remainers use against Brexit, and vice versa.
I was pro-remain and pro-keeping Scotland as part of the UK but times have changed. England seems determined to f.ck over the UK and if Scotland wants to leave then honestly I don't blame them. I don't know how the border would work if they joined the EU but we need to work that out for Eire/NI anyway so it's not like it's a unique sticking point.
That's pretty much my position. I'm certainly sympathetic to Scots wanting to get shot of the Westminster government. But the practical difficulties of Brexit would be a hundred times worse with Scottish independence. So I dunno.

I just can't help shouting "you hypocrite!" at all the cabinet ministers banging on about stronger together and all that.
For what it's worth, that's what's been putting off some of my pro-Indy friends recently. Before I moved to Scotland I was quite happy for it to make its own decision. Most but not all of my friends up here were pro-independence but I don't think anyone fell out over it. When I moved up and started thinking about how I'd vote if I got the opportunity, I was more on the fence, although I was pro another referendum because of Brexit (I've probably said this already repeatedly in older posts on here, heh :oops: ). At the moment I'm more in the 'f.ck it why not' camp, for the reasons I said above...which are not especially pragmatic. This is all hypothetical at the moment of course and in reality I'd want to read up on the detail a bit more before I made a decision, particularly Brexit-related stuff.
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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Fishnut » Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:40 pm

Sciolus wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:24 pm
Fishnut wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:16 pm
Sciolus wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:10 pm
I do find it extraordinary when arch-Brexiteers use exactly the same arguments against Scottish independence as Remainers use against Brexit, and vice versa.
I was pro-remain and pro-keeping Scotland as part of the UK but times have changed. England seems determined to f.ck over the UK and if Scotland wants to leave then honestly I don't blame them. I don't know how the border would work if they joined the EU but we need to work that out for Eire/NI anyway so it's not like it's a unique sticking point.
That's pretty much my position. I'm certainly sympathetic to Scots wanting to get shot of the Westminster government. But the practical difficulties of Brexit would be a hundred times worse with Scottish independence. So I dunno.

I just can't help shouting "you hypocrite!" at all the cabinet ministers banging on about stronger together and all that.
I was shouting "you hypocrite" during the Brexit referendum but hypocrisy seems to be a necessary skill to make it in politics these days so I've given up thinking it's an accusation that I can shame them with.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by bmforre » Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:47 am

Norway has a similar population as Scotland. We got our independence from Sweden in 1905. We are not a member of EU but closely associated and have good working relations. How come this works well for us but would be very difficult for Scotland?

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Nov 18, 2020 8:10 am

bmforre wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:47 am
Norway has a similar population as Scotland. We got our independence from Sweden in 1905. We are not a member of EU but closely associated and have good working relations. How come this works well for us but would be very difficult for Scotland?
I'm sure that in the long run Scotland would thrive as an independent state. However, there would be short and medium term costs. Scots will need to decide whether its worth it. For people lose their jobs independence may seem to be an attractive, as national sovereignty won't pay the rent.

Overall, Scottish independence would have been much less complicated when the UK was an EU member. Now that Brexit is happening and the Westminster government seems determined to diverge from the EU an independent Scotland would face a difficult choice between aligning its regulations with the EU and aiming for membership, or remaining aligned with what would be its largest trading partner. As we've seen with the island of Ireland, there would have to a border somewhere. Scotland would be able to manage given time, but Brexit has increased the short term costs.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Nov 18, 2020 8:51 am

What was the post-independence period like for Norway?

(Some friends have just moved there. I've never been. It looks like a total quality-of-life fest for people who can handle winter)
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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by bmforre » Wed Nov 18, 2020 10:43 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 8:10 am
bmforre wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:47 am
Norway has a similar population as Scotland. We got our independence from Sweden in 1905. We are not a member of EU but closely associated and have good working relations. How come this works well for us but would be very difficult for Scotland?
... Now that Brexit is happening and the Westminster government seems determined to diverge from the EU an independent Scotland would face a difficult choice between aligning its regulations with the EU ... or remaining aligned with what would be its largest trading partner. As we've seen with the island of Ireland, there would have to a border somewhere ...
If the Rump-UK now veer away from regulations valid in the EU and much of the rest of the world it may be well for Scotland to keep with the world rather than staying bound to the Rump.

There will have to be borders somehere. Yes, from approximately Walls End to the Other End and open towards both sides of Ireland plus other countries.

I believe Newcastle will have to gear up to handle considerable amounts of border trade. As long as the Rump has money to trade with Outside World.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:07 pm

bmforre wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 10:43 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 8:10 am
bmforre wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:47 am
Norway has a similar population as Scotland. We got our independence from Sweden in 1905. We are not a member of EU but closely associated and have good working relations. How come this works well for us but would be very difficult for Scotland?
... Now that Brexit is happening and the Westminster government seems determined to diverge from the EU an independent Scotland would face a difficult choice between aligning its regulations with the EU ... or remaining aligned with what would be its largest trading partner. As we've seen with the island of Ireland, there would have to a border somewhere ...
If the Rump-UK now veer away from regulations valid in the EU and much of the rest of the world it may be well for Scotland to keep with the world rather than staying bound to the Rump.
The latest figures we have are that in 2019, and excluding oil and gas, Scotland exported products worth:
£51.2 billion to the rest of the UK
£16.1 billion to the EU
£17.7 billion to the rest of the world.

If an independent Scotland were to choose, the pull of gravity from England will be stronger than that from the EU. Northern Ireland being within the EU regulatory orbit won't help much. Certainly, in the long run Scotland could reorientate its economy to the EU and the rest of the world. Ireland did that and as far as I recall only about 12% or its goods exports are to the UK.

But the adjustment period would take decades, and in the mean time lots of people would be poorer. That might well be a price worth paying, and England's long term prospects don't look good. But its not going to be an easy decision.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by discovolante » Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:22 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:07 pm
bmforre wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 10:43 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 8:10 am


... Now that Brexit is happening and the Westminster government seems determined to diverge from the EU an independent Scotland would face a difficult choice between aligning its regulations with the EU ... or remaining aligned with what would be its largest trading partner. As we've seen with the island of Ireland, there would have to a border somewhere ...
If the Rump-UK now veer away from regulations valid in the EU and much of the rest of the world it may be well for Scotland to keep with the world rather than staying bound to the Rump.
The latest figures we have are that in 2019, and excluding oil and gas, Scotland exported products worth:
£51.2 billion to the rest of the UK
£16.1 billion to the EU
£17.7 billion to the rest of the world.

If an independent Scotland were to choose, the pull of gravity from England will be stronger than that from the EU. Northern Ireland being within the EU regulatory orbit won't help much. Certainly, in the long run Scotland could reorientate its economy to the EU and the rest of the world. Ireland did that and as far as I recall only about 12% or its goods exports are to the UK.

But the adjustment period would take decades, and in the mean time lots of people would be poorer. That might well be a price worth paying, and England's long term prospects don't look good. But its not going to be an easy decision.
That's interesting, and why I really hope, if another referendum takes place somehow, the Scottish government is absolutely explicit on what they want to achieve and how they would go about it - they can spin it for sure, in terms of what they think is better, but if it's rejoin the EU, let us know how and explain the easy bits and the sticking points and how to overcome them, if it's stick with the UK, then the same. But the conflict over the internal market bill doesn't seem like a great start...
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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:49 pm

discovolante wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:22 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:07 pm
bmforre wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 10:43 am

If the Rump-UK now veer away from regulations valid in the EU and much of the rest of the world it may be well for Scotland to keep with the world rather than staying bound to the Rump.
The latest figures we have are that in 2019, and excluding oil and gas, Scotland exported products worth:
£51.2 billion to the rest of the UK
£16.1 billion to the EU
£17.7 billion to the rest of the world.

If an independent Scotland were to choose, the pull of gravity from England will be stronger than that from the EU. Northern Ireland being within the EU regulatory orbit won't help much. Certainly, in the long run Scotland could reorientate its economy to the EU and the rest of the world. Ireland did that and as far as I recall only about 12% or its goods exports are to the UK.

But the adjustment period would take decades, and in the mean time lots of people would be poorer. That might well be a price worth paying, and England's long term prospects don't look good. But its not going to be an easy decision.
That's interesting, and why I really hope, if another referendum takes place somehow, the Scottish government is absolutely explicit on what they want to achieve and how they would go about it - they can spin it for sure, in terms of what they think is better, but if it's rejoin the EU, let us know how and explain the easy bits and the sticking points and how to overcome them, if it's stick with the UK, then the same. But the conflict over the internal market bill doesn't seem like a great start...
I hope so too. Though the referendum campaign did show that Scottish nationalism has its share of wishful thinkers who imagine problems away.
If Scotland is to be independent and wants to rejoin the EU it may well be better off making the decision quickly and before its dragged further away by the government in London. The longer its out the longer the more complex will be getting back in.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by snoozeofreason » Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:25 am

The process of rejoining the EU might be less smooth than some supporters of independence hope though. In particular, it's not obvious what view Spain would take. The last time I heard, the Spain's position was that they would not formally veto an application from an independent Scotland, but that they would not want it to take precedence over applications from other candidate countries. Depending on how you interpret it, that could, in practice, amount to a veto because none of the other candidate countries are going to be admitted into the EU any time soon.

During the 2014 referendum, fairly explicit comparisons between Catalonia and Scotland were drawn (I have heard that action figures of Alec Salmond were on sale in the streets of Barcelona). Given the ferocity with which the Madrid government reacted to the subsequent Catalan referendum, it's hard to see them giving an unqualified welcome to a newly independent Scotland.
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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by veravista » Thu Nov 19, 2020 2:10 pm

Maybe you should update yourself on Spain's position then (as of about 2 years ago). They have already said that the Catalonia - Scottish position is dissimilar and they wouldn't stand in the way of their application. Not surprising really as they now have another sweetener to go for, the possibility of getting Gibraltar back. Not only have the UK government stitched the rock dwellers up with the referendum, but they face problems that they had when UK Spain relations were really bad. Little or no access to fresh food or water, no way of dumping rubbish or sewage apart from jettisoning it into the Med and no cross-border commuting. Add to that the airports difficult airspace access and there could be some fun and games in the future, especially as it's a very strategic Naval facility.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by snoozeofreason » Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:52 pm

veravista wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 2:10 pm
Maybe you should update yourself on Spain's position then (as of about 2 years ago). They have already said that the Catalonia - Scottish position is dissimilar and they wouldn't stand in the way of their application.
I can't see that there has been any change of substance in the Spanish position. The line taken by the Rajoy government was as I said. They wouldn't block Scotland's accession, but Scotland would have to formally leave the UK and then go through the same legislative process as any other country that wanted to accede to the EU. The Sanchez government has expressed itself in more encouraging words, but I can't see any change of substance. I imagine that might give some comfort to patient supporters of independence, because it doesn't rule out accession. But, in the absence of some kind of accelerated process for Scotland it won't happen soon, and there's no guarantee that it will happen at all.

And I would imagine that both governments were very keen to stress the differences between Catalonia and Scotland, given the circumstances. Anything else would make their attitude to the Catalan referendum hard to justify. Catalans see the similarities.
In six days the Lord made the heavens and the earth, the sea, and all that is in them. The human body was knocked up pretty late on the Friday afternoon, with a deadline looming. How well do you expect it to work?

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:14 pm

Does EU accession operate with a queuing system, then?

I assumed the reasons why places like Turkey and Serbia hadn't been let in the club yet were related to genuine differences in alignment, and that another country could accede before any of them assuming those differences in alignment were rectified. If Scotland had only been out of the EU for a year or two I reckon there are limits to how much disalignment the Westminster government could force on Scotland to make accession more difficult than for Montenegro. Is there any reason to suggest queue-jumping couldn't happen?
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