Should Scotland be independent?

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bjn
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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by bjn » Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:27 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:33 am
...
If I were Scottish I'd absolutely be going for it. Future in the EU is so much more hopeful than future in the UK.
...
Same. But seeing as I'm not Scottish, can they please stay and not leave us with the eternal Tory sh.t show?

The BJNlettes now have Australian citizenship and we could run, but given that Oz now runs concentration camps, it's also a sh.t show there.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Pucksoppet » Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:41 pm

I think it depends on whether a majority of Scots wish to hitch themselves to the Tory wagon or not. Independence would at least allow the Scots to choose how they wanted to manage the economic decline that will follow from leaving the EU. Remaining in a union with England will ensure that English requirements are made a priority. After all, why waste money on a constituency that isn't going to vote for you.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by discovolante » Sat Dec 14, 2019 9:59 am

Any knowledge on what Sturgeon might do when the government refuses? Seems likely to be court action, that'd be fun.

I can understand why she's keeping her hands close to her chest tbh but I can't imagine her going down without a fight. I understand why she's been keeping her cards close to her chest though.

Tell you what though, if there is a referendum then whatever the outcome I hope it's a decisive one. That might be wishful thinking though.
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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Pucksoppet » Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:42 am

discovolante wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 9:59 am
Tell you what though, if there is a referendum then whatever the outcome I hope it's a decisive one. That might be wishful thinking though.
I would hope that any future referendum on a controversial topic would require a super-majority to change from the status quo. The definition of the super-majority would be up for debate, but would need to be agreed by all parties to the debate - e.g. a better than 66⅔% share of those who bother to vote, or a better than 66⅔ % share of the electorate (or maybe a combination of better than 66⅔% share of vote AND better than 50% of the electorate). Other definitions are available.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by snoozeofreason » Sat Dec 14, 2019 11:49 am

Pucksoppet wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:42 am
discovolante wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 9:59 am
Tell you what though, if there is a referendum then whatever the outcome I hope it's a decisive one. That might be wishful thinking though.
I would hope that any future referendum on a controversial topic would require a super-majority to change from the status quo. The definition of the super-majority would be up for debate, but would need to be agreed by all parties to the debate - e.g. a better than 66⅔% share of those who bother to vote, or a better than 66⅔ % share of the electorate (or maybe a combination of better than 66⅔% share of vote AND better than 50% of the electorate). Other definitions are available.
This is more or less what was done in the first Scottish Devolution referendum back in 1979. The rules stipulated that setting up a devolved assembly would require not just a simple majority of those who turned out to vote, but also the votes of 40% of the total electorate. In the end the first of those criteria was met, but not the second. The SNP were aggrieved that Scotland would not get the assembly that it had, in their view, voted for and withdrew their support for the then Labour minority government, which led to a General Election and the first of Margaret Thatcher's three terms in office.
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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Dec 14, 2019 3:46 pm

Recent polling in Scotland still shows remaining in the UK to be marginally ahead or a tie.
https://britainelects.newstatesman.com/ ... t-country/

A Brexit effect won’t be felt in full until after the end of the transition period.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Pucksoppet » Sat Dec 14, 2019 7:56 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 3:46 pm
Recent polling in Scotland still shows remaining in the UK to be marginally ahead or a tie.
https://britainelects.newstatesman.com/ ... t-country/

A Brexit effect won’t be felt in full until after the end of the transition period.
That was interesting*, showing roughly the same level of support for Scottish Independence as for 'Remain' in the Continuing-Membership-of-the-EU Referendum. I thought it was higher, so thanks for pointing that out.


*Once I'd fought my way past the obnoxious full page CSS give us your email address so we can spam you float-over. I wish there was a viable micro-payments mechanism. I can appreciate that the people who make such information available on the Internet need to pay for things, but I don't want to take out annual subscriptions or use 'advertiser supported' (meaning personal data mining) services.

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Grumble
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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Grumble » Sat Dec 14, 2019 7:59 pm

Gentleman Jim wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:49 am
go to Trumpton
Change my name to Barney McGrew
Do you have a problem with our autocratic mayor?
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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discovolante
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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by discovolante » Sat Dec 14, 2019 8:13 pm

Pucksoppet wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 7:56 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 3:46 pm
Recent polling in Scotland still shows remaining in the UK to be marginally ahead or a tie.
https://britainelects.newstatesman.com/ ... t-country/

A Brexit effect won’t be felt in full until after the end of the transition period.
That was interesting*, showing roughly the same level of support for Scottish Independence as for 'Remain' in the Continuing-Membership-of-the-EU Referendum. I thought it was higher, so thanks for pointing that out.


*Once I'd fought my way past the obnoxious full page CSS give us your email address so we can spam you float-over. I wish there was a viable micro-payments mechanism. I can appreciate that the people who make such information available on the Internet need to pay for things, but I don't want to take out annual subscriptions or use 'advertiser supported' (meaning personal data mining) services.
Yes I ended up signing up with a rarely used email address.

I'm still kind of on the fence tbh. I'm not sure what to make of the fact that the pattern seems to be fairly rapid swings towards yes (or rather, less no) around some quite er, Brexity related periods, followed by a fairly steady trend towards yes (but still no), apart from that er, Brexit might properly swing things.
don't get any big ideas, they're not gonna happen

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Grumble
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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Grumble » Sat Dec 14, 2019 8:58 pm

It’s all heading towards Europe In Autumn territory.

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/18143945
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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Woodchopper
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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Dec 15, 2019 3:04 am

Pucksoppet wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 7:56 pm


*Once I'd fought my way past the obnoxious full page CSS give us your email address so we can spam you float-over. I wish there was a viable micro-payments mechanism. I can appreciate that the people who make such information available on the Internet need to pay for things, but I don't want to take out annual subscriptions or use 'advertiser supported' (meaning personal data mining) services.
Yes, Britain Elects used to be a free ad supported site but it recently got taken over by The New Statesman. It would be wrong to expect people to keep on collecting and aggregating polling data for a pittance but I wish that the solution didn’t involve handing over my email address.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Allo V Psycho » Sun Dec 15, 2019 8:43 am

Can't currently vote, because living in Sedgefield* (yeah, I know...), but last time I would reluctantly have voted 'no'. This is because of the massive problems of disentangling two interwoven political systems. If I had known that Brexit was coming along...

If I'm in Scotland for the next one, I will reluctantly vote 'yes'. The problem of a border now seems laughable, compared to NI. If successful, it still won't be easy, and I imagine that a Tory Government will stick Scotland with a generous share of the post-Imperial national debt. I mean, what exactly will Scotland do with one fifth of an aircraft carrier and two F35s?

I don't think Boris will agree to a second vote, however, so I refreshed my memory of Irish history in the early 20th Century. It is not good.

My sister lives in Scotland but has already applied for her Irish passport.

*One of my neighbours, generally a lovely man, is a fanatical Brexiter and told me that "We managed perfectly well on our own for a thousand years, so we will be fine". I really like him, so refrained from saying that I was a Scot, and we spent about 700 of those years at each other's throats.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by DrTf » Sun Dec 15, 2019 10:56 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:33 am
The border won't be a problem, as the UK will have figured out how to do frictionless borders by then.
*Laughs uncontrollably* You’re joking, right?
If I were Scottish I'd absolutely be going for it. Future in the EU is so much more hopeful than future in the UK.

And if Boris tries to block the referendum from having happening the obvious source of comparison is Catalonia. I don't think anybody would particularly want that mess on their hands. Boris will go for it then try to blag his way to victory - could be third time lucky.
I am a dual national born in Scotland. Last indyref I was 100% against independence because it was basically brexit in all but name and equally as brain-off. With my Scottish-but-foreign hat on, Scottish nationalism looks very like what, in England, remainers see in leavers, but the nationalism doesn’t look quite so ugly because of the veneer of victimhood.

However, the situation we are in now, is that Westminster is imposing brexit on a devolved region that did not vote for it. Stripping all the nationalism out of that, an appeal to the EU to rescue Scotland from this sh.t seems like a very sensible choice. The effect that has on England, well, not their problem, really. Any talk of that being because of national identity, however, needs to be kept out of it.
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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Sciolus » Sun Dec 15, 2019 1:08 pm

In other words, all the practical and emotional arguments against Brexit apply tenfold to Scottish independence, because the two entities have been combined so closely for so long.

But on the other hand, the main argument for Brexit -- decisions being made a long way away by people you didn't vote for -- which was pretty feeble for Brexit, genuinely applies strongly to Scotland.

So yeah, f.ck knows.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by rockdoctor » Sun Dec 15, 2019 1:45 pm

I'm torn - I sympathise with the Scots and their reasons for wanting independence, but I also think we are all stronger and better off together (same argument as for EU). While we were in the EU it was fairly irrelevant, but now...

Seems like, after a long period of the world growing together and integrating, we are in for a prolonged patch of division and isolation (Trump's US, Modi's India, Boris's UK, Bolsonaro's Brazil, Putin's Russia etc) :cry:

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by GeenDienst » Sun Dec 15, 2019 1:51 pm

rockdoctor wrote:
Sun Dec 15, 2019 1:45 pm
I'm torn - I sympathise with the Scots and their reasons for wanting independence, but I also think we are all stronger and better off together (same argument as for EU). While we were in the EU it was fairly irrelevant, but now...

Seems like, after a long period of the world growing together and integrating, we are in for a prolonged patch of division and isolation (Trump's US, Modi's India, Boris's UK, Bolsonaro's Brazil, Putin's Russia etc) :cry:
I feel the same, but what swings it to Yes for me is the feeling that I can't deny them the future solidarity in the EU that has been taken away from us.
Just tell 'em I'm broke and don't come round here no more.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Pucksoppet » Sun Dec 15, 2019 9:53 pm

Sciolus wrote:
Sun Dec 15, 2019 1:08 pm
In other words, all the practical and emotional arguments against Brexit apply tenfold to Scottish independence, because the two entities have been combined so closely for so long.

But on the other hand, the main argument for Brexit -- decisions being made a long way away by people you didn't vote for -- which was pretty feeble for Brexit, genuinely applies strongly to Scotland.

So yeah, f.ck knows.
Yes, I was musing about this, and the practical problems of Scotland in the EU having a land border with England are pretty large, and as has been pointed out, deliberately making the trading relationship with your geographically nearest trading partner more difficult is difficult to justify, no matter how emotionally satisfying it might be. From Grangemouth, it's very roughly the same distance to each of Esbjerg, Bremerhaven/Wilhelmshaven, and Rotterdam (about 750-800 km) across the North Sea, which is not the most benign ferry route in winter. There are plenty of existing international rules and regulations that allow transit of goods through a third country, but it would require the English to be coöperative.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Dec 16, 2019 5:27 am

The England Scotland border wouldn’t be as complicated as it is in Ireland. In Ireland the border area is densely populated and there’s about 300 crossings. Geography means that the England Scotland border is much less densely populated and I doubt that there’s more than 20 crossings.

On the other hand independence would be a mirror image of much of the disruption we’ll see with Brexit. Replacing English markets would be difficult. Especially because much of the trade would have to be transported via England.

It’s not certain that Scotland would vote yes a second time.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:27 am

I just counted and there are 32 road crossings and 2 rail crossing.

HTH.
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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by GeenDienst » Mon Dec 16, 2019 11:09 am

20 wasn't a bad guess then.
Just tell 'em I'm broke and don't come round here no more.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Dec 16, 2019 1:32 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:27 am
I just counted and there are 32 road crossings and 2 rail crossing.

HTH.
Thanks for that. I was almost right, and 32 is still far fewer than between NI and I.

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Gentleman Jim
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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Gentleman Jim » Mon Dec 16, 2019 3:23 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Dec 16, 2019 1:32 pm
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:27 am
I just counted and there are 32 road crossings and 2 rail crossing.

HTH.
Thanks for that. I was almost right, and 32 is still far fewer than between NI and I.
Is that enough for all the refugee columns that will head that way?
Does Sturgeon need advice about building a wall to keep out the criminal scum coming up from the failed states further south?
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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by jimbob » Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:42 pm

rockdoctor wrote:
Sun Dec 15, 2019 1:45 pm
I'm torn - I sympathise with the Scots and their reasons for wanting independence, but I also think we are all stronger and better off together (same argument as for EU). While we were in the EU it was fairly irrelevant, but now...

Seems like, after a long period of the world growing together and integrating, we are in for a prolonged patch of division and isolation (Trump's US, Modi's India, Boris's UK, Bolsonaro's Brazil, Putin's Russia etc) :cry:
Gup that's me, and if I lived in Scotland, would now be full on supporting Independence.

I have realized that I *really* don't feel English but British.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by kerrya1 » Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:32 pm

I'm half Scottish, half Irish and apart from 1 year I've lived my whole life up here. In the first referendum I voted "No" as I felt that Scotland was stronger internationally as part of the union.

Everything has changed now and I expect Boris and his pals to continue to treat Scotland with the same level of contempt as always. I think Brexit will be bad for Scotland in many ways, and that Scotland would be better as an independent country within the EU.

So, assuming that the SNP commits to immediately applying for EU membership then I would now vote for independence in any future referendum. I expect that we will have to fight hard for another referendum and the outcome certainly isn't predictable. There is also a significant minority within the SNP and other independence supporters who want to be independent and outside the EU which seems crazy to me.

I will mostly be spending this holiday season applying for my Irish passport and getting my kids registered for citizenship.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Gentleman Jim » Tue Dec 17, 2019 9:29 am

"Under the Irish Nationality and Citizenship Act 1956, if a child who is not an Irish citizen is adopted by an Irish citizen or a couple where either spouse is an Irish citizen, then the adopted child shall be an Irish citizen."

If the same applies when Scotland becomes independent, I will be looking for volunteers :)


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