Should Scotland be independent?

Discussions about serious topics, for serious people
User avatar
Matatouille
Clardic Fug
Posts: 223
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 5:26 pm
Location: UK

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Matatouille » Tue Dec 17, 2019 11:18 am

As an "English" person, who has always felt that the itentity "British" and "European" applied to me orders of magnitude more strongly, this whole thing is galling. Last IndyRef I hoped that Scotland would vote to Remain, but now I can't begrudge them a second say as everything has changed and against their democraticly expressed will too. If they voted to leave I'd cheer them on their way with my best wishes (same with NI were that to happen without a return to war), but knowing that we'd be condemned to some pretty bleak years with the Tories having a much easier path to a majority than Labour.
kerrya1 wrote:
Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:32 pm
I expect that we will have to fight hard for another referendum and the outcome certainly isn't predictable.
I'm not so sure. Its better for BoJo's party in the long term if Scotland were to saunter off, but politically problematic for them to make it look too easy. I think that if the SNP maintained persistent vocal pressure and indications of support continue to grow, excuses may be found to permit a 2nd IndyRef. The UK gov resistance may be more PR smokescreen to be able to claim "not my fault guv'nor!" than material hinderance or obstruction.
kerrya1 wrote:
Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:32 pm
I will mostly be spending this holiday season applying for my Irish passport and getting my kids registered for citizenship.
Ditto hopefully. Does anyone know how to find out whether a deceased person renounced their citizenship of Ireland? My dad had a hazy memory of his mum doing this. We couldn't find any record of it but it would scupper any application I make if she did it before my dad was born.

Gentleman Jim wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 9:29 am

Spoiler:
Spoiler:

User avatar
TopBadger
Stargoon
Posts: 114
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:33 pm
Location: Halfway up

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by TopBadger » Tue Dec 17, 2019 1:22 pm

Apparently one route for Scotland to force the issue is via the UN and the right to self-determination - unlikely to be a quick decision and they'd need to find a sympathetic country to bring it up... not sure the EU would want one of their members sponsoring this so it would likely need to be someone outside the EU and probably outside the commonwealth, with enough clout to get the UN to take notice... seems a short list.

I wonder how much downside there is for the Tories in begrudgingly allowing IndyRef2. The Queen would be gutted but PM Dick clearly doesn't give a fig about her. Little Englanders are unlikely to shed a tear either - "the Scots never support us when they don't get to a world cup". And it suits Tory calculations for seats in HoC.

Plus PM DIck gets to go into the history books for another reason and possibly eclipse every prior Tory leader ever.

Trebles all round! Only question is how long he needs to wait before grudgingly allowing it.
You can't polish a turd...
unless its Lion or Osterich poo... http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/mythbus ... -turd.html

User avatar
murmur
Snowbonk
Posts: 493
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:09 am
Location: West of the fields

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by murmur » Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:07 pm

Overall I like the idea of a more federal European system, but as the English have decided not to play nice with Europe anymore I find myself feeling even less inclined to Englishness than I ever did (clue: not very much, aside from international cricket, and see also posts by JQH in other threads).

As to Scottish independence: it depends where they put the border.

If popular "geography" is followed then we are in Scotland already. If they follow the real border it's a whole other matter (I have a load of property pages for Dumfries and Galloway open just <---- there) and it may be time to move south.

f.ck the Tories, f.ck the wazzocks in this constituency, f.ck the berks in Blyth, f.ck England and all associated ideas of English exceptionalism and imperialism!
It's so much more attractive inside the moral kiosk

User avatar
murmur
Snowbonk
Posts: 493
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:09 am
Location: West of the fields

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by murmur » Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:09 pm

For avoidance of doubt the "move south" above does refer to moving to Scotland...
It's so much more attractive inside the moral kiosk

User avatar
Gentleman Jim
Catbabel
Posts: 619
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:38 pm

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Gentleman Jim » Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:26 pm

Do as many of the US states do?
55th parallel from Gretna to North Shields - Northward is all Scotland.
Unfortunately, means England still keeps Newcastle :lol:
Should help you a lot, Murmur
Rules are for the guidance of wise men and the obedience of fools.

cvb
Clardic Fug
Posts: 167
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:15 am

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by cvb » Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:43 pm

Would Scotland have enough GDP to make it worthwhile financially to be independent?

I know Northern Ireland is heavily subsidised, presumably to stop them shooting each other too much.

User avatar
dyqik
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2751
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:19 pm
Location: Masshole
Contact:

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by dyqik » Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:07 pm

cvb wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:43 pm
Would Scotland have enough GDP to make it worthwhile financially to be independent?

I know Northern Ireland is heavily subsidised, presumably to stop them shooting each other too much.
Surely it's GDP per capita that matters? To the extent that GDP matters at all.

Much of the point of the EU is that individual countries' size is less important, as they can do international trade as part of the EU bloc, with all the weight that brings. There are several countries in the EU much smaller than Scotland. And the reason for Scotland leaving would be to join the EU.

Scotland is about the same size in population as Denmark, Finland and Slovakia, and bigger than Ireland, Croatia, etc. And in about the same position in the GDP tables for 2018 (~€200 billion), although the countries around it are different.

Per capita (including north sea gas) it's in the top third of EU countries. North Sea gas totals per year are about 15% of Scotland's GDP, but losing that would only drop it a couple of places in the table of EU countries GDP per capita (there's a big step just below the UK as a whole and France to Italy. Scotland's GDP per capita with North Sea gas puts around the UK as a whole).

User avatar
veravista
Fuzzable
Posts: 337
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:29 pm
Location: Directly above the centre of the earth

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by veravista » Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:31 pm

Interesting how much the Scotch Whisky contributes a) to the Scottish GVA and b) to the UK treasury*. Interest little article here https://www.scotch-whisky.org.uk/newsro ... port-2018/

* I did read somewhere that technically Scotland only exports Whisky to England, the treasury takes it's cut and then it's sent on on behalf of the distillers. Not sure if this is true or not.

User avatar
murmur
Snowbonk
Posts: 493
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:09 am
Location: West of the fields

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by murmur » Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:49 pm

Gentleman Jim wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:26 pm
Do as many of the US states do?
55th parallel from Gretna to North Shields - Northward is all Scotland.
Unfortunately, means England still keeps Newcastle :lol:
Should help you a lot, Murmur
Dunno, that gets shot of quite a bit of Dumfries and Galloway (our preferred exit destination) to being Engerland (unless you do some jiggling at Gretna).

The border would divide Newcastle, which would amuse me hugely.
It's so much more attractive inside the moral kiosk

bmforre
Fuzzable
Posts: 336
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:15 pm
Location: Trondheim

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by bmforre » Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:01 am

Re size of population to be a workable country:

Norway has a bit more than 5 mllion inhabitants. We have full freedom of movement with the EU and this works well.
Finland and Denmark each have slighty more people than we do while Sweden have a bit above 10 million.

Do not try to convince us that these countries are too small to be independent.

User avatar
Gentleman Jim
Catbabel
Posts: 619
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:38 pm

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Gentleman Jim » Wed Dec 18, 2019 9:24 am

murmur wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:49 pm
Gentleman Jim wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:26 pm
Do as many of the US states do?
55th parallel from Gretna to North Shields - Northward is all Scotland.
Unfortunately, means England still keeps Newcastle :lol:
Should help you a lot, Murmur
Dunno, that gets shot of quite a bit of Dumfries and Galloway (our preferred exit destination) to being Engerland (unless you do some jiggling at Gretna).

The border would divide Newcastle, which would amuse me hugely.
OK - A straight line from the mouth of the Esk to the mouth of the Tyne (Divide Newcastle even more)

eta Oh, and be prepared for much much wetter weather in D&G compared to NE England :lol:
Rules are for the guidance of wise men and the obedience of fools.

User avatar
murmur
Snowbonk
Posts: 493
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:09 am
Location: West of the fields

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by murmur » Wed Dec 18, 2019 10:28 am

Gentleman Jim wrote:
Wed Dec 18, 2019 9:24 am
murmur wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:49 pm
Gentleman Jim wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:26 pm
Do as many of the US states do?
55th parallel from Gretna to North Shields - Northward is all Scotland.
Unfortunately, means England still keeps Newcastle :lol:
Should help you a lot, Murmur
Dunno, that gets shot of quite a bit of Dumfries and Galloway (our preferred exit destination) to being Engerland (unless you do some jiggling at Gretna).

The border would divide Newcastle, which would amuse me hugely.
OK - A straight line from the mouth of the Esk to the mouth of the Tyne (Divide Newcastle even more)

eta Oh, and be prepared for much much wetter weather in D&G compared to NE England :lol:
Warmer and wetter - yeah, we know.

I had a picture in my mind of folk from, say, Byker or Walker having to show their passports to get into St James' - "Which end? Home home or home foreign?"
It's so much more attractive inside the moral kiosk

cvb
Clardic Fug
Posts: 167
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:15 am

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by cvb » Wed Dec 18, 2019 10:34 am

dyqik wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:07 pm
cvb wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:43 pm
Would Scotland have enough GDP to make it worthwhile financially to be independent?

I know Northern Ireland is heavily subsidised, presumably to stop them shooting each other too much.
Surely it's GDP per capita that matters? To the extent that GDP matters at all.

Much of the point of the EU is that individual countries' size is less important, as they can do international trade as part of the EU bloc, with all the weight that brings. There are several countries in the EU much smaller than Scotland. And the reason for Scotland leaving would be to join the EU.

Scotland is about the same size in population as Denmark, Finland and Slovakia, and bigger than Ireland, Croatia, etc. And in about the same position in the GDP tables for 2018 (~€200 billion), although the countries around it are different.

Per capita (including north sea gas) it's in the top third of EU countries. North Sea gas totals per year are about 15% of Scotland's GDP, but losing that would only drop it a couple of places in the table of EU countries GDP per capita (there's a big step just below the UK as a whole and France to Italy. Scotland's GDP per capita with North Sea gas puts around the UK as a whole).
I did mean GDP per capita.

Is the infrastructure more costly to maintain as it has a more dispersed population with some really hard to reach bits? Also it is a bit colder.

User avatar
Gentleman Jim
Catbabel
Posts: 619
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:38 pm

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Gentleman Jim » Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:03 am

murmur wrote:
Wed Dec 18, 2019 10:28 am
Gentleman Jim wrote:
Wed Dec 18, 2019 9:24 am
murmur wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:49 pm


Dunno, that gets shot of quite a bit of Dumfries and Galloway (our preferred exit destination) to being Engerland (unless you do some jiggling at Gretna).

The border would divide Newcastle, which would amuse me hugely.
OK - A straight line from the mouth of the Esk to the mouth of the Tyne (Divide Newcastle even more)

eta Oh, and be prepared for much much wetter weather in D&G compared to NE England :lol:
Warmer and wetter - yeah, we know.

I had a picture in my mind of folk from, say, Byker or Walker having to show their passports to get into St James' - "Which end? Home home or home foreign?"

If you made the Tyne part of the border then of course all three places would be in Scotland
Rules are for the guidance of wise men and the obedience of fools.

User avatar
TopBadger
Stargoon
Posts: 114
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:33 pm
Location: Halfway up

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by TopBadger » Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:19 am

cvb wrote:
Wed Dec 18, 2019 10:34 am
I did mean GDP per capita.

Is the infrastructure more costly to maintain as it has a more dispersed population with some really hard to reach bits? Also it is a bit colder.
From teh wiki's

England GDP = 2.2 Trillion
Scotland GDP = 0.2 Trillion

England Pop = 55 Million
Scotland Pop = 5.4 Million

Therefore:

England GDP per capita = 40,000
Scotland GDP per capita = 37,000

Scotland also receives a but more funding per person from devolution via the Barnett formula. Wiki says that 2016 Scotland received funding of ~£10,500 per person relative to ~ £8,900 per person in England - a sizable difference.

So the average scot contributes ~7% less GDP than a person in England but receives ~18% more funding for services. Seems they've got it pretty good in the scheme of things.

Just as we expect UK GDP to fall on putting up barriers with it's largest trading partner (the EU) we can expect Scottish GDP to fall if it puts up barriers to trade with its largest partner (rUK).

Leaving unions makes one poorer.
Last edited by TopBadger on Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
You can't polish a turd...
unless its Lion or Osterich poo... http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/mythbus ... -turd.html

User avatar
GeenDienst
Dorkwood
Posts: 1093
Joined: Wed Nov 13, 2019 10:10 am

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by GeenDienst » Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:20 am

murmur wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:49 pm

The border would divide Newcastle, which would amuse me hugely.
Half of it is Sunderland already.
Just tell 'em I'm broke and don't come round here no more.

User avatar
dyqik
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2751
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:19 pm
Location: Masshole
Contact:

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by dyqik » Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:48 am

cvb wrote:
Wed Dec 18, 2019 10:34 am
dyqik wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:07 pm
cvb wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:43 pm
Would Scotland have enough GDP to make it worthwhile financially to be independent?

I know Northern Ireland is heavily subsidised, presumably to stop them shooting each other too much.
Surely it's GDP per capita that matters? To the extent that GDP matters at all.

Much of the point of the EU is that individual countries' size is less important, as they can do international trade as part of the EU bloc, with all the weight that brings. There are several countries in the EU much smaller than Scotland. And the reason for Scotland leaving would be to join the EU.

Scotland is about the same size in population as Denmark, Finland and Slovakia, and bigger than Ireland, Croatia, etc. And in about the same position in the GDP tables for 2018 (~€200 billion), although the countries around it are different.

Per capita (including north sea gas) it's in the top third of EU countries. North Sea gas totals per year are about 15% of Scotland's GDP, but losing that would only drop it a couple of places in the table of EU countries GDP per capita (there's a big step just below the UK as a whole and France to Italy. Scotland's GDP per capita with North Sea gas puts around the UK as a whole).
I did mean GDP per capita.

Is the infrastructure more costly to maintain as it has a more dispersed population with some really hard to reach bits? Also it is a bit colder.
Compare the size of Scotland to Finland, which is a lot colder than it.

User avatar
Woodchopper
After Pie
Posts: 2074
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Dec 19, 2019 10:22 am

YouGov polling

Only 23% of the UK population supports another Scottish independence referendum, and one is only supported by 46% in Scotland.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/travel/surv ... question_1

User avatar
Woodchopper
After Pie
Posts: 2074
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Dec 19, 2019 10:24 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 10:22 am
YouGov polling

Only 23% of the UK population supports another Scottish independence referendum, and one is only supported by 46% in Scotland.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/travel/surv ... question_1
ETA only 16% of leavers think that there should be another referendum. :roll:

User avatar
DrTf
Sindis Poop
Posts: 60
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:18 pm
Location: The Danelaw

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by DrTf » Thu Dec 19, 2019 8:51 pm

bmforre wrote:
Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:01 am
Re size of population to be a workable country:

Norway has a bit more than 5 mllion inhabitants. We have full freedom of movement with the EU and this works well.
Finland and Denmark each have slighty more people than we do while Sweden have a bit above 10 million.

Do not try to convince us that these countries are too small to be independent.
Iceland does ok on 340,000 ish
"The large print giveth, and the small print taketh away"

noggins
Stargoon
Posts: 92
Joined: Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:30 pm

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by noggins » Fri Dec 20, 2019 5:25 pm

I still think "emotionally" that Scottish nationalism is silly. There seems f.ck all to scotsness except some ersatz victorian b.llsh.t and a (quite fair) grudge against thatcher.

But f.ck me sideways I now see the appeal of getting away from little f.cking brexit england.

sheldrake
Snowbonk
Posts: 563
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by sheldrake » Fri Dec 20, 2019 7:25 pm

People who think that Scotland should be independent from the UK so it can rejoin the EU are out of their tiny minds.

Euro membership combined with German-run fiscal stability rules would very quickly turn the country into a cold, wet version of Greece.

User avatar
JQH
Dorkwood
Posts: 1019
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 3:30 pm
Location: Sar Flandan

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by JQH » Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:25 pm

Wasn't a major part of Greece's problem that the government was not very good at collecting tax revenues? And so cranked up the printing presses to make up the difference? Joining the Euro resulted in them being found out; I don't think Scotland would have that problem.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

Fintan O'Toole

sheldrake
Snowbonk
Posts: 563
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by sheldrake » Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:10 pm

JQH wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:25 pm
Wasn't a major part of Greece's problem that the government was not very good at collecting tax revenues? And so cranked up the printing presses to make up the difference? Joining the Euro resulted in them being found out; I don't think Scotland would have that problem.
Scotland would have to join the Euro to join the EU. Scotland spends more per head than it collects in tax. It would no longer be subsidised by England and subject to interest rates set to suit Germany. They'd experience the same kind of youth unemployment seen in southern Europe.

User avatar
Martin_B
Snowbonk
Posts: 590
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:20 pm
Location: Perth, WA

Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Martin_B » Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:17 pm

JQH wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:25 pm
Wasn't a major part of Greece's problem that the government was not very good at collecting tax revenues? And so cranked up the printing presses to make up the difference? Joining the Euro resulted in them being found out; I don't think Scotland would have that problem.
Part of the problem with Scotland paying their way in the EU was that there was going to be a large proportion of their tax revenue raised from North Sea oil. That was calculated when the price of oil was $100/barrel. The price is now more like $50-60/barrel, and as production costs ~$20/barrel, the profits have halved per barrel. Plus, four years down the line production figures have shrunk (some estimates say by 30%), so the petroleum tax income may have decreased by 65%.
"My interest is in the future, because I'm going to spend the rest of my life there"

Post Reply