Should Scotland be independent?

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Pucksoppet
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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Pucksoppet » Sat Dec 21, 2019 6:04 pm

I think the intention of those independence-minded is to transform the Scottish economy along the lines of the Nordic economies. I have no idea if that is a reasonable and practical target.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Si_B » Mon Dec 23, 2019 1:31 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:10 pm
JQH wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:25 pm
Wasn't a major part of Greece's problem that the government was not very good at collecting tax revenues? And so cranked up the printing presses to make up the difference? Joining the Euro resulted in them being found out; I don't think Scotland would have that problem.
Scotland would have to join the Euro to join the EU. Scotland spends more per head than it collects in tax. It would no longer be subsidised by England and subject to interest rates set to suit Germany. They'd experience the same kind of youth unemployment seen in southern Europe.
The first sentence of Sheldrake's post shows an extremely superficial knowledge of the accession process. Whereas it is true that all new countries joining the EU are legally obliged to adopt the Euro at some point in the future, there is no legal time limit.

Specifically, to join the Euro, Member States must meet the Convergence Criteria.

There is no legal timetable. 19 of the 28 (soon to be 27) have already adopted the Euro. Denmark (like the UK) has an unlimited-duration opt-out. The other 7 have not adopted it yet, and are under no particular pressure to rush the process (the ECB has seen what happens if a country does not truly meet the Convergence Criteria). They are also wary of imposing it if the government and people of the Member State are not fully comfortable with it.

Note, for example, Sweden. As teh Wiki says: Sweden does not currently use the euro as its currency and has no plans to replace the krona in the near future. Sweden's Treaty of Accession of 1994 made it subject to the Treaty of Maastricht, which obliges states to join the eurozone once they meet the necessary conditions. Sweden maintains that joining the ERM II (a requirement for euro adoption) is voluntary, and has chosen to remain outside pending public approval by a referendum, thereby intentionally avoiding the fulfilment of the adoption requirements.

It would be highly unlikely that Scotland (as a newly independent country) could meet the Convergence Criteria immediately on accession to the EU, and even if it did, there is no evidence that there would be pressure from the Commission or the ECB to immediately adopt. Scotland could easily do the same as Sweden, for example.

Since the first sentence is therefore tosh, the rest of Sheldrake's post (which is dependant on it) is also tosh.

If this is the level of Sheldrake's knowledge, then further debate is probably pointless.
"The rule is perfect: in all matters of opinion our adversaries are insane." - Mark Twain

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Si_B » Mon Dec 23, 2019 1:48 pm

Separately from my post above however, I am sceptical that Scotland leaving the United Kingdom would be good for either party for exactly the same reason that I believe the UK leaving the EU is a terrible idea.

I have yet to see any coherent argument (in the years that the debates about Scottish Independence or Brexit have been going on) where leaving a bloc where barriers have been eliminated or minimised to create a smaller unit with extra trading and administrative costs and simultaneously less economic clout would be beneficial.

In the situation after Brexit, I appreciate that it becomes a little more complicated - does leaving one trading bloc (the UK) and replacing it with another (the EU) make sense? Perhaps it is more nuanced, but my belief is that since the rest of the UK is the most economically important trading partner of Scotland at the moment, erecting barriers here to remove them from trading with another partner where there is less trade (the EU) is difficult to justify (in the same way that the idea of replacing UK-EU trade with fabulous trade deals with the US is also, IMHO, daft). I accept, however, that the situation is harder to judge post-Brexit and am open to evidenced-arguments to change my mind.
"The rule is perfect: in all matters of opinion our adversaries are insane." - Mark Twain

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by greyspoke » Mon Dec 23, 2019 2:04 pm

I liked the idea of devo-max.

But mainly because it is such a cool name.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by sheldrake » Mon Dec 23, 2019 5:03 pm

Si_B wrote:
Mon Dec 23, 2019 1:31 pm
Since the first sentence is therefore tosh, the rest of Sheldrake's post (which is dependant on it) is also tosh.

If this is the level of Sheldrake's knowledge, then further debate is probably pointless.
You're quicker to throw insults than you are to do research. Undertaking to meet the convergence criteria would be a condition of EU accession for a small country like Scotland, Scotland wouldn't be able to negotiate an opt-out like Sweden did at the time of Maastricht.

I understand you're still sore about Brexit, but it's compromising your objectivity.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by greyspoke » Mon Dec 23, 2019 5:32 pm

Sweden doesn't have an op-out and it has undertaken to meet the criteria.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by sheldrake » Thu Dec 26, 2019 1:53 am

greyspoke wrote:
Mon Dec 23, 2019 5:32 pm
Sweden doesn't have an op-out and it has undertaken to meet the criteria.
You're right, they don't, it was only the UK and Denmark that had official opt-outs. Apparently the position the country took was that meeting the criteria for ERM2 was voluntary and they'd only do so after a referendum. Sweden had a referendum on Euro membership in 2003 and voted No by 55.9%.

The EU started talking about plans to get the stragglers into the Euro by 2025 a year after the Brexit referendum

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-euro ... SKBN18J207

Scotland isn't going to get a choice about this if they leave the UK and try to rejoin the EU, not least because they'll be ruled by fanatical eurofederalists in the form of the SNP who will sign up to this without asking you.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Dec 26, 2019 4:31 am

As Si_b mentioned, an independent Scotland would have to make a commitment in principle to join the Euro. But like Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden it would be able to use another currency indefinitely.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by sheldrake » Thu Dec 26, 2019 10:27 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Dec 26, 2019 4:31 am
As Si_b mentioned, an independent Scotland would have to make a commitment in principle to join the Euro. But like Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden it would be able to use another currency indefinitely.
Those places are all going to be under significant pressure to join by 2025 and the biggest difficulty many of them will have in resisting is that their own political classes will be co-opted into The European Project, just like our MPs were. The SNP won't put up a fight because they're not a genuine independence movement.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Dec 26, 2019 6:18 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Thu Dec 26, 2019 10:27 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Dec 26, 2019 4:31 am
As Si_b mentioned, an independent Scotland would have to make a commitment in principle to join the Euro. But like Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden it would be able to use another currency indefinitely.
Those places are all going to be under significant pressure to join by 2025 and the biggest difficulty many of them will have in resisting is that their own political classes will be co-opted into The European Project, just like our MPs were. The SNP won't put up a fight because they're not a genuine independence movement.
I don’t see much sign of the leadership of Poland or Hungary having been co-opted.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by sheldrake » Thu Dec 26, 2019 9:59 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Dec 26, 2019 6:18 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Thu Dec 26, 2019 10:27 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Dec 26, 2019 4:31 am
As Si_b mentioned, an independent Scotland would have to make a commitment in principle to join the Euro. But like Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden it would be able to use another currency indefinitely.
Those places are all going to be under significant pressure to join by 2025 and the biggest difficulty many of them will have in resisting is that their own political classes will be co-opted into The European Project, just like our MPs were. The SNP won't put up a fight because they're not a genuine independence movement.
I don’t see much sign of the leadership of Poland or Hungary having been co-opted.
And let's see what happens to them.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by JQH » Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:09 am

What do you think will happen to them?
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

Fintan O'Toole

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by sheldrake » Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:32 am

They'll either be replaced by Europhiles who commit them to erm2. (at great cost to their populations) or they'll leave the EU

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by nekomatic » Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:40 am

Well there’s a testable prediction, at least.

Will this replacement happen by some sort of extraordinary measures though, or just by means of the normal democratic procedures of those countries?

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by sheldrake » Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:59 am

nekomatic wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:40 am
Well there’s a testable prediction, at least.

Will this replacement happen by some sort of extraordinary measures though, or just by means of the normal democratic procedures of those countries?
Democratic procedures in concert with propaganda and unsettling noises about reduction of EU transfer payments to those countries.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by lpm » Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:42 am

But Scotland should work towards convergence and adopt the euro at the appropriate time. There's a good argument that they should adopt the euro on day one. The whole point of independence would be in order to give away that independence to federal Europe over the coming decades - a union with a prosperous superpower instead of union with a senile neighbour.
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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by bjn » Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:08 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:42 am
But Scotland should work towards convergence and adopt the euro at the appropriate time. There's a good argument that they should adopt the euro on day one. The whole point of independence would be in order to give away that independence to federal Europe over the coming decades - a union with a prosperous superpower instead of union with a senile neighbour.
In the current EU, they definitely would have more independence than they currently enjoy being part of the UK and be part of something bigger. How that would work with a Federal Europe depends on the form of federation.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by GeenDienst » Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:12 pm

Not give away, much more sharing aspects of sovereignty, which as we know happens in every trafedeal anyway, particularly when you are the junior partner in that deal.
Just tell 'em I'm broke and don't come round here no more.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by sheldrake » Fri Dec 27, 2019 8:11 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:42 am
The whole point of independence would be in order to give away that independence to federal Europe over the coming decades - a union with the world's slowest growing regional economic block instead of union with a neighbour who willingly subsidised them for centuries and gave them disproportionate parliamentary representation relative to their population.
ftfy
Not give away, much more sharing aspects of sovereignty, which as we know happens in every trafedeal anyway, particularly when you are the junior partner in that deal.
No, most trade deals don't involve political union of anything like the kind which EU membership requires. Claiming this to be so is a tell you really haven't researched the topic.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by plodder » Wed Jan 01, 2020 7:32 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 8:11 pm
The whole point of independence would be in order to give away that independence to federal Europe over the coming decades - a union with the world's slowest growing regional economic block
No less growy than a lot of the world, and we are on the back of a major global recession caused by the kind of unregulated capitalism that is harder under EU rules. Plus we really, really, urgently need to rethink what "growth" implies, but that's a different thread.

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper ... /OAE/OEMDC

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by sheldrake » Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:03 pm

plodder wrote:
Wed Jan 01, 2020 7:32 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 8:11 pm
The whole point of independence would be in order to give away that independence to federal Europe over the coming decades - a union with the world's slowest growing regional economic block
No less growy than a lot of the world, and we are on the back of a major global recession caused by the kind of unregulated capitalism that is harder under EU rules. Plus we really, really, urgently need to rethink what "growth" implies, but that's a different thread.

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper ... /OAE/OEMDC
Less 'Growy' than the US, Canada, Australia or China.

Which EU rules do you believe make recession harder, and why didn't they work in the EU ?

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by plodder » Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:24 pm

Hang on, none of those places are "regional economic blocks".

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by plodder » Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:27 pm

Wrt regulatory reform, I'm no expert in banking law but these measures appear to discourage the reckless leveraged lending we saw in the US that led to the credit crunch:

https://www.whitecase.com/publications/ ... s-imminent

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by sheldrake » Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:37 pm

plodder wrote:
Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:24 pm
Hang on, none of those places are "regional economic blocks".
US & Canada together are most of NAFTA. China is a billion people with a single currency.

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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by sheldrake » Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:41 pm

plodder wrote:
Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:27 pm
Wrt regulatory reform, I'm no expert in banking law but these measures appear to discourage the reckless leveraged lending we saw in the US that led to the credit crunch:

https://www.whitecase.com/publications/ ... s-imminent
If the problem in the EU last time was caused by lending in the US, why do you believe that tighter rules about lending within the EU will protect their citizens from reckless lending in other countries?

Nothing here would help Scotland cope with the sharp reduction in govt. income accompanied with the fiscal rules associated with Euro convergence.

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