General Election 2019

[discovolante]

I've spent more time gibbering online than I have watching the actual commentary, but there seem to be general mutterings about Boris Johnson somehow suddenly becoming a bit softer and more reasonable and all that now he's got a majority. Isn't that comparable to what was said about Trump?

[dyqik]

Yes.

It does seem to have actually happened with the latest trade deal thing, but that's more a consequence of Trump being a sh.t negotiator.

[discovolante]

Yes.

It does seem to have actually happened with the latest trade deal thing, but that's more a consequence of Trump being a sh.t negotiator.

On a vaguely related note, Priyamvada Gopal has been talking about how the outcome of this election reflects a wider global political trend and I think she might be right to say we ignore this at our peril.

[discovolante]

Well there we are then.

[Woodchopper]

f.ck.

Tories just won Bishop Auckland. Held by Labour continuously since the 1930s.

Looks like the exit poll was accurate.

[GeenDienst]

Also Tories overturned a 12.5 k majority in Redcar, and there was a BxP candidate there.

Small mercies, Nigel Dodds is out on his arse in Norn Iron. Not that his SF replacement is any f.cking use to anybody.

And the LDs have advised Zac Goldsmith not to let the door hit his arse on the way out.

Take 'em where we can get 'em.

[GeenDienst]

Anyway, bedtime.

1983 result: Labour 209 seats.

Exit poll forecast tonight Labour 191 seats. With no SDP/lib Alliance in the way, and with BXP standing against Tories in some seats.

[Bird on a Fire]

Ken Livingstone blames the Jews.

Not joking.

[GeenDienst]

Ken Livingstone blames the Jews.

Not joking.

Mirror:

The former Labour MP and Mayor of London, said his friend and ally Jeremy Corbyn had paid the price for several aspects of his campaign, including not taking more action against anti-semitism.

"The Jewish vote wasn't very helpful," Mr Livingstone said

"Jeremy should have tackled that issue far earlier than he did.

Satire died a slow death there, considering how long to took them to get shot of him.

[discovolante]

Gina Miller has made a very simple, interesting observation.

[Woodchopper]

f.ck.

Dennis Skinner has lost his seat.

Bolsover had been Labour ever since it was created in 1950.

[Woodchopper]

Gina Miller has made a very simple, interesting observation.

Go on, share it with us.

[discovolante]

Gina Miller has made a very simple, interesting observation.

Go on, share it with us.

Lol. She basically just said that everyone has been obsessed with voting tactically against Brexit but that a lot of people have actually been voting tactically for Brexit i.e. Tory.

I have been spending a lot of time dicking about and drinking tonight, but I've not seen anybody actually put it in terms of tactical voting. I.e. the way Gina Miller has - the purported arch-remainer more or less showed more respect for leave voters than pretty much anyone else who has been approached about this.

[RobS]

Also Tories overturned a 12.5 k majority in Redcar, and there was a BxP candidate there.

Small mercies, Nigel Dodds is out on his arse in Norn Iron. Not that his SF replacement is any f.cking use to anybody.

And the LDs have advised Zac Goldsmith not to let the door hit his arse on the way out.

Take 'em where we can get 'em.

And Chris Williamson lost his deposit.

[Gentleman Jim]

Just playing "Fun Boy Three" at full volume

This has the potential to be worse than the Thatcher years

[lpm]

Final polls should be in tomorrow. In June 2017, the spread of final polls was this, with the actual poll result on the bottom line:

Code: Select all

					C	L	LD	U	G	Lead(%)
Panelbase/		2017-06-07	44	36	7	5	2	8
Kantar/			2017-06-07	43	38	7	4	2	5
ICM/Guardian		2017-06-07	46	34	7	5	2	12
YouGov/Times		2017-06-07	42	35	10	5	2	7
ComRes/Independent	2017-06-07	44	34	9	5	2	10
Survation/		2017-06-07	41	40	8	2	2	1
BMG/Herald		2017-06-07	46	33	8	5	3	13
Ipsos-MORI/Eve. Std.	2017-06-07	44	36	7	4	2	8
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
Actual Result		2017-06-08	42.3	40	7.4	1.8	1.6	2.3

It'll be interesting to see what the spread looks like tomorrow.

Okay, so the final polls for this election are below:

Code: Select all

					C	L	LD	Br	G	Lead(%)
Panelbase/		2019-12-11	43	34	11	4	3	9
Kantar/			2019-12-11	44	32	13	3	3	12
ICM			2019-12-10	42	36	12	3	2	6
YouGov			2019-12-10	43	34	12	3	3	9
ComRes/Telegraph	2019-12-11	41	36	12	3	2	5
Survation/		2019-12-11	45	34	9	3	3	11
BMG			2019-12-11	41	32	14	3	4	9
Deltapoll		2019-12-11	45	35	10	3	3	10
Opinium			2019-12-11	45	33	12	2	2	12

Other than the 2017 Survation poll, these are similar numbers to last time. Throughout this campaign, house effects are fairly consistent, so Opinium and Kantar have been showing the biggest leads for the Tories; however, most polling companies have changed their approach from the last election so changes in polling since 2017 aren't a marker of anything particular. The YouGov poll there is the MRP one which did a good job last time, I think (but which isn't in the 2017 table). Obviously, I'm really hoping the ComRes and ICM polls are the more accurate ones, but we'll have to wait and see. I doubt that is the case this time, not least because apparently ComRes can't be trusted :roll:

Outcome: +12

So not wildly out, but right at the top end of the range.

[Martin Y]

You know what's rubbish? The BBC website's interactive results map. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50770798

It's impossibly laggy on my phone and I thought that was why I couldn't work out how to navigate it but it's no better on a PC with a mouse. You get one click and drag, then it decides the map will just follow your mouse around and you can't drop it. And it still lags like crazy. If you ever manage to pick the constituency you want, clicking the offered link to detailed results is broken. f.cking hopeless.

[Gfamily]

You know what's rubbish? The BBC website's interactive results map. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50770798

It's impossibly laggy on my phone and I thought that was why I couldn't work out how to navigate it but it's no better on a PC with a mouse. You get one click and drag, then it decides the map will just follow your mouse around and you can't drop it. And it still lags like crazy. If you ever manage to pick the constituency you want, clicking the offered link to detailed results is broken. f.cking hopeless.

Works for me in Chrome, but the links are broken for me in Pale Moon (Firefox based)

[GeenDienst]

Only just realised Flint was one of the casualties. Good.

[Martin Y]

Only just realised Flint was one of the casualties. Good.

I thought the rum got him in the end. Was it the Black Spot?

[Little waster]

Only just realised Flint was one of the casualties. Good.

She was clearly too Remainy... if only she had worked harder on delivering the Will Of The People by rubberstamping whatever Brexit deal Johnson happened to pull out of his fundament.

[JQH]

Only just realised Flint was one of the casualties. Good.

I thought the rum got him in the end. Was it the Black Spot?

Where's his treasure map?

[Gfamily]

One of the commentators was saying that with the size of his majority, the PM is not so dependent on the ERG, and will thus have the option of negotiating for a better deal - but in terms of it being 'softer' it's still 4 or 5 on the Brexit Stool Chart.

[Martin Y]

Only just realised Flint was one of the casualties. Good.

I thought the rum got him in the end. Was it the Black Spot?

Where's his treasure map?

I heard Long-John-Bailey's got it.

[Vertigowooyay]

In other news, I got called a “f.cking English piece of sh.t” today for beeping someone who nearly reversed into me. Quite the sh.tty cherry on the top of the faeces cake really.