Getting Brexit done

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FlammableFlower
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by FlammableFlower » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:32 pm

So the US congress and a number of senators have come out and said that anything that buggers up the Good Friday Agreement will scupper any US-UK trade deal talk.

Which means the Tories, having said how useful and important brinkmanship is, are now up the stakes even more - and for themselves only as the EU don't give a sh.t about any wrecking a potential US-UK trade deal.

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Little waster
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Little waster » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:00 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:32 pm
So the US congress and a number of senators have come out and said that anything that buggers up the Good Friday Agreement will scupper any US-UK trade deal talk.

Which means the Tories, having said how useful and important brinkmanship is, are now up the stakes even more - and for themselves only as the EU don't give a sh.t about any wrecking a potential US-UK trade deal.
Is this the point Brexiteers start arguing that the US needs us more than we need them, that American chlorinated chicken companies will force the US to give us a good deal, that the US should give us a deal because we have aircraft carriers, that the US owe us because we beat Hitler, that if Congress refuses to give us a deal we’ll just negotiate over their heads directly with the President and that actually reverting to WTO tariffs with the US is in fact even better than a deal.
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FlammableFlower
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by FlammableFlower » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:56 pm

They now lost the advocate general for Scotland: Lord Keen resigns

And I heard Buckland on R4's Today programme this morning - brilliant bit of weaselling: it's ok to put those dodgy clauses into the Bill - if the EU doesn't act in good faith then it won't be illegal. It's only illegal if the EU is acting in good faith...

Of course seeing as the Brexiteers are already arguing that the EU isn't acting in good faith, then by definition, the government can't be acting illegally...

Brilliant bit of circular logic.

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Little waster
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Little waster » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:25 am

Relax everyone it is all a big misunderstanding on Nancy Pelosi's part.

Somehow in all the confusion over the last week and more regarding the UK government's stated wish to break international law by unilaterally reneging on the WA and ripping up the GFA, the central message has been lost and it has taken over a week of intense debate, criticism and commentary for this to become apparent to a dead newt under a rock in the Amazon Rainforest the UK government.

The central message is that in fact by categorically ignoring the wishes of the Irish, the Nationalists, the Unionists and the US the British government are reality protecting the NI Peace Process and this has always been the priority of the Brexiteers as highlighted by the fact they didn't realise it was even an issue until about 18 months ago.
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bolo
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by bolo » Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:52 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:32 pm
So the US congress and a number of senators have come out and said that anything that buggers up the Good Friday Agreement will scupper any US-UK trade deal talk.
Also a former senator, Joe Biden, who tweeted yesterday that "Any trade deal between the U.S. and U.K. must be contingent upon respect for the Agreement and preventing the return of a hard border. period."

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by FlammableFlower » Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:01 pm

bolo wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:52 pm
FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:32 pm
So the US congress and a number of senators have come out and said that anything that buggers up the Good Friday Agreement will scupper any US-UK trade deal talk.
Also a former senator, Joe Biden, who tweeted yesterday that "Any trade deal between the U.S. and U.K. must be contingent upon respect for the Agreement and preventing the return of a hard border. period."
I like that there was some Tory interviewed who claimed that, "well, he's in a campaign and a lot can be said when campaigning that changes when in the position"

Except... that's been a pretty consistent line from the Democrats for a long time now - I seem to remember (might have been Nancy Pelosi) bringing it up months ago, maybe even around the time Johnson was fumbling for negotiating the deal (that he never intended to keep).

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by monkey » Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:05 am

FlammableFlower wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:01 pm
bolo wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:52 pm
FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:32 pm
So the US congress and a number of senators have come out and said that anything that buggers up the Good Friday Agreement will scupper any US-UK trade deal talk.
Also a former senator, Joe Biden, who tweeted yesterday that "Any trade deal between the U.S. and U.K. must be contingent upon respect for the Agreement and preventing the return of a hard border. period."
I like that there was some Tory interviewed who claimed that, "well, he's in a campaign and a lot can be said when campaigning that changes when in the position"

Except... that's been a pretty consistent line from the Democrats for a long time now - I seem to remember (might have been Nancy Pelosi) bringing it up months ago, maybe even around the time Johnson was fumbling for negotiating the deal (that he never intended to keep).
How about April last year? (I didn't search for articles older than that, and Pelosi was a keyword)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co ... d-47979214

Pretty sure some Republicans have said similar before now too, but not the ones in the White House.

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bolo
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by bolo » Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:10 am

It is not irrelevant that the Irish-American population is 7 times the population of Ireland.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/won ... n-ireland/

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by plodder » Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:14 am

The UK won’t build a hard border and neither will the EU.

For real- this is what the solution looks like. It’s going to be a fudge. The language being used just needs to catch up with reality.

How that fudge works in practice is anyone’s guess. The UK will probably commit to some sort of international anti smuggling / people trafficking endeavour (that generates the necessary red tape) with the EU to smooth it over.

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Woodchopper
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:18 am

plodder wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:14 am
The UK won’t build a hard border and neither will the EU.

For real- this is what the solution looks like. It’s going to be a fudge. The language being used just needs to catch up with reality.
Initially, I agree.

They'll have to if the lack of border checks attracts significant criminal activity.

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Little waster
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Little waster » Fri Sep 18, 2020 8:11 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:18 am
plodder wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:14 am
The UK won’t build a hard border and neither will the EU.

For real- this is what the solution looks like. It’s going to be a fudge. The language being used just needs to catch up with reality.
Initially, I agree.

They'll have to if the lack of border checks attracts significant criminal activity.
You still have to square the circle of officially leaving the SM and CU and (re)creating a raft of new trade agreements with the ROW,while de facto remaining within the SM and CU, without falling foul of the WTO's Most-Favoured-Nation principle.

How we do that remains unanswered. Does anyone remember when everyone suddenly became an expert on GATT24 for about 5 minutes in the Before Times, halycon days, we don't hear much about that now for some reason? Reality sucks!

Even Minford's Unilateral Free Trade idea just multiplies the problem, an EU concerned that the NI border becomes an open backdoor for shoddy US products is going to be even more worried if the UK simply lets the dreck of the World's Markets flood in from everywhere. You can also wave goodbye to UK manufacturing and agriculture on the Leap of Faith that when the dust settles we will have successfully leveraged our comparative advantage in innovative jams into turning us into the economic juggernaut of the world and that once we lead the way the ROW will see the light and reciprocate UFT for us when we've already given them what they wanted.

IANAInternationalTradeExpert but I also assume even the free-est of UFTs still wouldn't completely replicate the regulatory convergence and equivalence of the SM and CU so even then you would still need some sort of border check.
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plodder
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by plodder » Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:39 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:18 am
plodder wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:14 am
The UK won’t build a hard border and neither will the EU.

For real- this is what the solution looks like. It’s going to be a fudge. The language being used just needs to catch up with reality.
Initially, I agree.

They'll have to if the lack of border checks attracts significant criminal activity.
Yes, that's where my second paragraph comes in. There will be some sort of anti smuggling task force set up, probably under the disguise of increased Border Force funding to Stop Teh Dingys

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