Getting Brexit done

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Woodchopper
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:22 pm

Coveney appears to set out a Red Line regarding the UK Finance Bill: https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status ... 04288?s=20

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Trinucleus
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Trinucleus » Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:07 pm

According to Newsnight their cunning plan is to offer to take the clauses out if EU give them a deal

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by bjn » Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:26 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:57 pm
Good thread on how we and most people are assessing Johnson's decision the wrong way. Its not about a sophisticated cost benefit analysis, but about Johnson's gut instinct as to whether its something he wants or not.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1334 ... 30912?s=20
I'm not sure many people here would think Johnson has done a sophisticated cost benefit analysis about anything he's every done in his life.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Blackcountryboy » Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:37 pm

bjn wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:26 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:57 pm
Good thread on how we and most people are assessing Johnson's decision the wrong way. Its not about a sophisticated cost benefit analysis, but about Johnson's gut instinct as to whether its something he wants or not.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1334 ... 30912?s=20
I'm not sure many people here would think Johnson has done a sophisticated cost benefit analysis about anything he's every done in his life.
A serial adulterer marrying a lawyer suggests he doesn't think about anything he does.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by dyqik » Wed Dec 02, 2020 7:05 pm

bjn wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:26 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:57 pm
Good thread on how we and most people are assessing Johnson's decision the wrong way. Its not about a sophisticated cost benefit analysis, but about Johnson's gut instinct as to whether its something he wants or not.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1334 ... 30912?s=20
I'm not sure many people here would think Johnson has done a sophisticated cost benefit analysis about anything he's every done in his life.
I'm not expecting a sophisticated cost-benefit analysis, but an acknowledgement that decisions have costs that can't just be waved away would be nice...

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Woodchopper
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Dec 02, 2020 7:08 pm

bjn wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:26 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:57 pm
Good thread on how we and most people are assessing Johnson's decision the wrong way. Its not about a sophisticated cost benefit analysis, but about Johnson's gut instinct as to whether its something he wants or not.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1334 ... 30912?s=20
I'm not sure many people here would think Johnson has done a sophisticated cost benefit analysis about anything he's every done in his life.
Fair enough, but a lot of the discussion is about things like job losses caused by no deal or the attitude of the new Biden administration. Maybe none of that matters very much.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Little waster » Wed Dec 02, 2020 7:16 pm

dyqik wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 7:05 pm
bjn wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:26 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:57 pm
Good thread on how we and most people are assessing Johnson's decision the wrong way. Its not about a sophisticated cost benefit analysis, but about Johnson's gut instinct as to whether its something he wants or not.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1334 ... 30912?s=20
I'm not sure many people here would think Johnson has done a sophisticated cost benefit analysis about anything he's every done in his life.
I'm not expecting a sophisticated cost-benefit analysis, but an acknowledgement that decisions have costs that can't just be waved away would be nice...
I think Johnson reckons he can just perform his usual escape trick, namely hiding behind the scenery and then conspicuously read off his notes to the amusement of his adoring audience.
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This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Dec 02, 2020 8:05 pm

UK starting to lower its demands on fish, but Macron et al stress that no deal is better than a bad deal.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... es-says-eu
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Dec 02, 2020 8:37 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 8:05 pm
UK starting to lower its demands on fish, but Macron et al stress that no deal is better than a bad deal.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... es-says-eu
More information here: https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status ... 91434?s=20

Good that they are looking for ways to solve the issue. But these are the sorts of discussions that should have been had in the summer. There's still lots to work out.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by dyqik » Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:41 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 8:37 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 8:05 pm
UK starting to lower its demands on fish, but Macron et al stress that no deal is better than a bad deal.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... es-says-eu
More information here: https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status ... 91434?s=20

Good that they are looking for ways to solve the issue. But these are the sorts of discussions that should have been had in the summer before submitting Article 50. There's still lots to work out.
FTFY.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by monkey » Thu Dec 03, 2020 2:35 am

dyqik wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:41 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 8:37 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 8:05 pm
UK starting to lower its demands on fish, but Macron et al stress that no deal is better than a bad deal.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... es-says-eu
More information here: https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status ... 91434?s=20

Good that they are looking for ways to solve the issue. But these are the sorts of discussions that should have been had in the summer before submitting Article 50. There's still lots to work out.
FTFY.
Before the referendum, so's people knew what they were voting for would be my choice.

But wasn't there a thing about no negotiating before you hand in your A50?

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:44 am

monkey wrote:
Thu Dec 03, 2020 2:35 am
dyqik wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:41 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 8:37 pm


More information here: https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status ... 91434?s=20

Good that they are looking for ways to solve the issue. But these are the sorts of discussions that should have been had in the summer before submitting Article 50. There's still lots to work out.
FTFY.
Before the referendum, so's people knew what they were voting for would be my choice.

But wasn't there a thing about no negotiating before you hand in your A50?
Still possible for the UK government to work out a plan beforehand.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by monkey » Thu Dec 03, 2020 6:53 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:44 am
monkey wrote:
Thu Dec 03, 2020 2:35 am
dyqik wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:41 pm


FTFY.
Before the referendum, so's people knew what they were voting for would be my choice.

But wasn't there a thing about no negotiating before you hand in your A50?
Still possible for the UK government to work out a plan beforehand.
Only if you changed the rule, it's not a plan if half the participants can't or won't tell you if they're happy with it. But I have heard rules can be changed.

What would have been really stupid would be to spend your time making minor changes to what remaining looks like instead, allow the leave campaign to offer cake to all, and then f.ck off humming a jaunty tune.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:22 am

monkey wrote:
Thu Dec 03, 2020 6:53 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:44 am
monkey wrote:
Thu Dec 03, 2020 2:35 am


Before the referendum, so's people knew what they were voting for would be my choice.

But wasn't there a thing about no negotiating before you hand in your A50?
Still possible for the UK government to work out a plan beforehand.
Only if you changed the rule, it's not a plan if half the participants can't or won't tell you if they're happy with it. But I have heard rules can be changed.

What would have been really stupid would be to spend your time making minor changes to what remaining looks like instead, allow the leave campaign to offer cake to all, and then f.ck off humming a jaunty tune.
I meant that the UK could have worked out a detailed plan even if the rest refused to talk. Instead of winging it all at the last minute.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by plodder » Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:56 am

Some Irish border solutions, leaked (apparently). Complicated for business.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JP_Biz/statu ... 0312969216

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Beaker » Thu Dec 03, 2020 9:38 am

Not really a leak if HMRC sets up a website for it, although the slides on Twitter are a neater graphic than I’ve seen elsewhere.

https://www.tradersupportservice.co.uk/tss

To me it looks like export to NI is more complex than export to rest of world, because you have the extra step of the pinky promise not to send it to Dublin.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Dec 03, 2020 9:40 am

There must be a breakthrough in talks by Friday or there may be no way to avoid massive trade disruption on January 1st, the European Union has told Britain.

It comes amid a warning from EU capitals that a deal must not give too much away. The two sides are locked in intense talks in London to try to avoid a sudden imposition of tariffs on trade that would devastate Irish exporters in just a few weeks time.

With mounting pressure from businesses and governments to know what they must plan for at the end of the month, chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier warned his British counterpart David Frost that unless a breakthrough was made by Friday the EU may run out of time to ratify a deal.

Any agreement must be passed in the European Parliament, and a failure to allow enough time would mean the “massive disruption” of no deal terms for as long as it took for the deal to be ratified, a source close to the talks said.

“The point Barnier was making to Frost was if we don’t have a deal or at least something over the next day or so, we can’t guarantee there will be a deal by January 1st,” a source close to the talks said. “Even if we get a deal in 10 days time, if we run down the clock too much, there is a very real risk that the deal can’t be ratified in time. We need to put an end to this somehow. “If there is no ratified deal in place on January 1st, there will be massive disruption.”
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/eco ... -1.4425928

There was a pizza delivery last night to the UK negotiators, and apparently some creative thinking.https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-55167822

But it all looks to be too late.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Dec 03, 2020 11:26 am

Beaker wrote:
Thu Dec 03, 2020 9:38 am
Not really a leak if HMRC sets up a website for it, although the slides on Twitter are a neater graphic than I’ve seen elsewhere.

https://www.tradersupportservice.co.uk/tss

To me it looks like export to NI is more complex than export to rest of world, because you have the extra step of the pinky promise not to send it to Dublin.
And here's the video the screenshots are from: https://youtu.be/-nbWmRvXcrA

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Dec 03, 2020 12:49 pm

Commons to debate the Internal Market Bill on Monday and the finance bill (containing similar) on Tuesday and Wednesday.
https://twitter.com/CommonsLeader/statu ... 47585?s=20

If the bills haven't had the offending clauses removed then it won't be good at all for the talks with the EU. Of course if there is a deal before Monday then the bills can be amended and all is hunky dory. But Monday is just a few days away.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Martin Y » Thu Dec 03, 2020 2:12 pm

monkey wrote:
Thu Dec 03, 2020 2:35 am
... But wasn't there a thing about no negotiating before you hand in your A50?
Yes, but there wasn't so much as a whisper of that before the referendum. Vote Leave's campaign specifically reassured the voters we would negotiate the new deal before starting the legal process to leave.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by TimW » Fri Dec 04, 2020 8:43 am

Hot news at gov.uk: the deal is done!

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Vertigowooyay » Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:07 am

I know we're 54 page into this, but at this stage should we rename the thread Not Getting Brexit Done?
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by JQH » Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:57 am

It's getting done. Just not in a way most of us would like.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:36 pm

I mean, in a lot of ways Brexit is done. The UK leaves the EU completely at the end of 2020.

What isn't done yet is the UK sorting out what it's going to to next, but Brexit itself is subject only to the inexorable passage of time.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Martin Y » Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:00 pm

Yes, we definitely disembark in 4 weeks, come what may. It's just a matter of agreeing where the plane will land first. But remember not landing is better than landing somewhere we don't like.

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