Getting Brexit done

[Woodchopper]

Work plan for the final phase of talks: https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... ith-the-eu

All about how they’re going to discuss things but nothing on substance.

Good thread on what it means. https://twitter.com/AntonSpisak/status/ ... 9412171782

tl;dr there's little trust and it'll take an intervention by politicians for there to be a breakthrough.

[Martin Y]

My best hope is some kind of useful negotiation begins in the new year.

Boris will not give Farage an inch of his ideological territory back to raise his banners and summon his minions. So Boris will not do a deal with the nasty foreigners. A deal is automatically treason. Only the purity of total isolation is What We All Voted For. Thus the Farage tail will wag the Boris dog. And we're screwed.

This is much more important to Boris than details like having a functional economy. Prime Minister of the smouldering ruins is still Prime Minister.

[Woodchopper]

UK negotiations over the price tag for joining the EU’s Horizon Europe research programme are not going well.

“We shouldn’t obscure the fact that the financial negotiations are not in a good position,” said Vivienne Stern, head of Universities UK, the umbrella body for 139 universities. “The offer that the commission has made to the UK is not appealing.”

The European Commission has proposed making the UK pay a proportion of the 2021-2027 research budget based on its gross domestic product as a share of EU GDP, which currently stands at 18 per cent.

The UK wants a “downward correction mechanism” to compensate the government if its researchers come away with a lower than expected share of Horizon Europe funding. Otherwise, the UK risks paying in a lot more than it takes out, researchers said during a special Brexit hearing in the House of Lords on Thursday.

“If you assume the Horizon Europe budget is going to be around £80 billion, then we think our contribution would be £15.2 billion over the lifetime of the [seven-year] programme,” said Stern.

To make back this investment, the UK would need to win 16 per cent of the programme’s budget. “We currently win 12.7 per cent,” said Stern. “If we continue to participate [at this rate], there would be a net contribution over seven years of about £3 billion. Even we think that doesn’t look fair,” she said.

Stern pleaded for the EU to come back with a better offer. “We’ve been saying to our European counterparts, you want us in this club, come back with a two-way correction mechanism so this doesn’t have to be an argument about money,” she said. “I think the UK wants association; I think the EU wants it. It doesn’t mean we’ll get there.”

https://sciencebusiness.net/framework-p ... d-position

[Sciolus]

“We currently win 12.7 per cent,” said Stern

Insert "Well there's your problem" meme here.

[Bird on a Fire]

The whole f.cking point of schemes like Horizon is that richer countries with a more developed research sector subsidise poorer, less developed countries. Everyone benefits by increasing regional capacity, the pool of trained talent and scope for collaboration, because those benefits are multiplicative.

If UUK want to get back as much as they put in, why don't they just keep the money for themselves in the first place, the silly tw.ts? "We want to do international collaborations, but not if it's going to cost us anything, boo you meanies"

UUK needs to stop treating the EU as a cash cow for its increasingly sh.t value universities and start working out what they'll actually bring to the table as partners in collaboration.

[plodder]

Meh, structural issues in HE are what they are. They won't hold up a trade deal for the sake of a couple of billion.

[Little waster]

Meh, structural issues in HE are what they are. They won't hold up a trade deal for the sake of a couple of billion.

Which cuts both ways, as the side with the weakest negotiating hand the UK has always proven the most certain to fold so far.

[plodder]

Yeah sure, all I’m saying is that things like this aren’t blockers. They’re also not headline grabbing. Agree we’ll just have to concede ground in a number of areas, but we knew that years ago.

[El Pollo Diablo]

I mean, to be fair, literally nothing has been a blocker so far, up to and including the unavailability of food, or any of many other topics which very much are headline-grabbing.

[plodder]

Yes, but project fear. Would you say you trusted George Osborne? Or David Cameron? The bad stuff will actually need to happen to people before they understand it.

[Bird on a Fire]

The bad stuff will actually need to happen to people before they understand it.

Yes, this is correct. I'd go further in this case - even once there are shortages of foods and medicines and things, a lot of people will continue not to understand the issues. A sizeable proportion of the UK public will blame it all on the EU, for instance.

[Fishnut]

Meh, structural issues in HE are what they are. They won't hold up a trade deal for the sake of a couple of billion.

But they'll hold up the trade deal for fishing, which is worth less than £2 billion to the UK economy.

[Woodchopper]

Meh, structural issues in HE are what they are. They won't hold up a trade deal for the sake of a couple of billion.

I think these are separate negotiations, and not part of what is being discussed by Barnier and Frost.

[Woodchopper]

A sizeable proportion of the UK public will blame it all on the EU, for instance.

Probably, but I don't think that Johnsom will escape criticism from those people. He promised to get brexit done with his oven ready deal. Even if people blame the EU, they will also blame Johnson for claiming that everything would be easy.

[Woodchopper]

The bad stuff will actually need to happen to people before they understand it.

Definitely. It was pointed out on teh interwebs a few days ago that back in the old days people spent years predicting that the Poll Tax would be a disaster. It was, but not until people actually started getting the bills.

[veravista]

Yeah, at least we won't need to mix with them dirty forrins any more!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ost-brexit

[Bird on a Fire]

Yeah, at least we won't need to mix with them dirty forrins any more!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ost-brexit

Oh f.ck, I'd forgotten about that. I always get through the e-gates at Lisbon pretty quickly, whereas the lines for proper checks are looooong. And I'm going to end up with about 1 million stamps.

Still, only 3 years till I can apply for citizenship here...

[veravista]

Really, what the f.ck did they think was going to happen?

[Little waster]

Really, what the f.ck did they think was going to happen?

I think you’ll find that’ Schrödinger-style, this is simultaneously “Project Fear, and never gonna happen” and “Exactly what we knew we were voting for and we are glad to make the sacrifice over”.

[Little waster]

Its just struck me.

You know what ultimately did for the UK's EU membership?

It's when the cancelled "Going for Gold" with Henry Kelly.

Pan-europeanism was doomed from that point.

[veravista]

Nah, the seed was sown long before.

Its when they changed Its a Knockout to some foreign title.

[Little waster]

Nah, the seed was sown long before.

Its when they changed Its a Knockout to some foreign title.

Judging by the UK's Brexit negotiations it lives on in spirit at least, with the UK negotiators and politicians playing the role of the giant foam penguins falling over into a paddling pool full of gunge.

[malbui]

Nah, the seed was sown long before.

Its when they changed Its a Knockout to some foreign title.

Judging by the UK's Brexit negotiations it lives on in spirit at least, with the UK negotiators and politicians playing the role of the giant foam penguins falling over into a paddling pool full of gunge.

And the UK got to play their joker early in their choice of minister to lead the negotiations. My colleagues in Brussels are still wiping the tears from their eyes because of that.

[FlammableFlower]

Johnson waits on US election results

1) He could be waiting for longer than he's got time for
2) Be careful what you wish for...

Ivan Rogers, former UK ambassador to the EU, says prime minister will think ‘history was going his way’ if Donald Trump is re-elected

3) Is that an implicit comment that he knows if Biden gets in he's f.cked?

[Little waster]

Ivan Rogers, former UK ambassador to the EU, says prime minister will think ‘history was going his way’ if Donald Trump is re-elected

I can't think of any greater indictment of the brexiteer worldview than if a Trump re-election is considered "history going their way".