Getting Brexit done

[Woodchopper]

Possibly some movement towards each other on level playing field. But still a long way apart on fish.
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status ... 04928?s=20

An agreement may be possible, but they're running out of time.

[Woodchopper]

British students stand to lose access to the EU’s Erasmus+ scheme that makes it easier to study abroad, after the EU and the U.K. failed to reach a deal for the country’s post-Brexit participation.

https://twitter.com/gallardo_ortega/sta ... 61345?s=21

[plodder]

British students stand to lose access to the EU’s Erasmus+ scheme that makes it easier to study abroad, after the EU and the U.K. failed to reach a deal for the country’s post-Brexit participation.

https://twitter.com/gallardo_ortega/sta ... 61345?s=21

What's the value of EU students to British Universities? Are they subject to those sky-high fees?

[FlammableFlower]

British students stand to lose access to the EU’s Erasmus+ scheme that makes it easier to study abroad, after the EU and the U.K. failed to reach a deal for the country’s post-Brexit participation.

https://twitter.com/gallardo_ortega/sta ... 61345?s=21

What's the value of EU students to British Universities? Are they subject to those sky-high fees?

Well... currently no as fees are generally Home/EU vs Overseas. Technically they'll become overseas, so you could try to claim they're more lucrative. However, I suspect the drop in EU students not wishing to pay 3 times the fees will far outweigh any increased income.
So it'll be lose-lose for UK universities...
In terms of international cache, Oxbridge may nor be so hard hit, but everywhere else... forget it.

[jimbob]

Don't tins last, like, forever! ?

I'm sure they used to, before all these 'use by' dates.

https://youtu.be/jZoHuMwZwTk

[sTeamTraen]

What's the value of EU students to British Universities? Are they subject to those sky-high fees?

Well... currently no as fees are generally Home/EU vs Overseas. Technically they'll become overseas, so you could try to claim they're more lucrative. However, I suspect the drop in EU students not wishing to pay 3 times the fees will far outweigh any increased income.
So it'll be lose-lose for UK universities...
In terms of international cache, Oxbridge may nor be so hard hit, but everywhere else... forget it.

There may be a win for the Exchequer, though. Pre-Brexit, EU students were entitled to loans. If you thought the payback rate for those was low, good luck garnishing the over-£21k annual earnings of someone who graduated and went back to be a civil servant in Latvia or a musician in Portugal.

[Bird on a Fire]

British students stand to lose access to the EU’s Erasmus+ scheme that makes it easier to study abroad, after the EU and the U.K. failed to reach a deal for the country’s post-Brexit participation.

https://twitter.com/gallardo_ortega/sta ... 61345?s=21

What's the value of EU students to British Universities? Are they subject to those sky-high fees?

Erasmus specifically is for exchange years, rather than doing the whole degree abroad. It's very normal for students in EU countries to do one year abroad - not just students of languages/history etc., but scientists etc too.

For whatever reason, UK universities never encouraged students to take part. I'm not sure how the fees work at undergraduate level, but I did an Erasmus masters and the fees were €4000/year, even if you went to the UK university which would otherwise be charging £6000+.

So, part of the benefit is general cultural exchange. Obviously improving your English is massively valuable in most career areas. Different institutions have different strengths, so by going somewhere else you're getting additional value even if both institutions are about as 'good' as each other.

[headshot]

Frau HS attended a week long work exchange in Sweden as part of the work between two University Libraries. The whole thing was funded by Erasmus. It's not just students who benefit. The employees and organisations do too.

[malbui]

the attractive farmland and woods in the south and south-west of the county

aka "East East Sussex"

My understanding is that UDI will bring with it some border changes. Sheppey will be cut adrift to do whatever the hell it likes, while Kentish tanks will roll over the border as far as Uckfield. Even Lewes, maybe.

[Woodchopper]

von der Leyen reports progress on level playing field, "issues linked to governance are largely being resolved" but discussions of fish are still very difficult. Thinks a deal is possible over the next few days.
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status ... 11938?s=20

But ratification by the European Parliament by 31 December will be a huge problem. Fudges like provisional implementation may be possible but have negative consequences.

[jimbob]

von der Leyen reports progress on level playing field, "issues linked to governance are largely being resolved" but discussions of fish are still very difficult. Thinks a deal is possible over the next few days.
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status ... 11938?s=20

But ratification by the European Parliament by 31 December will be a huge problem. Fudges like provisional implementation may be possible but have negative consequences.

The options I see are:

1) No Deal - it will be a shitshow, but Johnson could try to blame "EU intransigence"
2) BINO (rolling over the current transition arrangements) - least bad option, fulfils the letter of his promise to "Get Brexit Done" but gets called a betrayal
3) Negotiating a deal - It will be a disaster (not as bad as no-deal) and Johnson couldn't blame the EU - as he'd have accepted the deal.


3 looks a bad option for Johnson - and would require him to do work.

[Woodchopper]

von der Leyen reports progress on level playing field, "issues linked to governance are largely being resolved" but discussions of fish are still very difficult. Thinks a deal is possible over the next few days.
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status ... 11938?s=20

But ratification by the European Parliament by 31 December will be a huge problem. Fudges like provisional implementation may be possible but have negative consequences.

The options I see are:

1) No Deal - it will be a shitshow, but Johnson could try to blame "EU intransigence"
2) BINO (rolling over the current transition arrangements) - least bad option, fulfils the letter of his promise to "Get Brexit Done" but gets called a betrayal
3) Negotiating a deal - It will be a disaster (not as bad as no-deal) and Johnson couldn't blame the EU - as he'd have accepted the deal.


3 looks a bad option for Johnson - and would require him to do work.

As far as I know the current arrangements could only be extended into January as part of an agreed free trade treaty, otherwise transition ends on 31 January and that's it. (Other options existed earlier but we're out of time).

Options seem to be:

a) Political level agreement this week and provisional implementation by the EU Commission and member states pending later ratification by the EU parliament (and member states if applicable). Downsides are that would require a lot of trust which isn't there as there wouldn't be a definitive finished text by Sunday, and the EU Parliament would be very pissed off.

b) Political level agreement this week, some no deal chaos which is mitigated as much as possible in January. Full ratification in late January.

c) No agreement this week but both parties agree to keep talking. Full no deal chaos in January. Agreement and ratification sometime early 2021.

d) No agreement this week. Both sides decide to take stock. Chaos ensues. Talks resume some tim in the future. Agreement at some point (could be years).

My concern about b, c and d is that if the chaos is blamed on the EU by UK politicians and media then it may become more difficult for Johnson to make the compromises necessary to reach an agreement. They'll be denounced as a surrender and Johnson doesn't want to face down the Express and ERG.

As you write, it all comes down to Johnson's flawed personality.

[plodder]

Yeah, he's not the right guy for the job, surprise surprise.

There's also the fudgy fudgy NoDINO option where the rules get bent out of shape in ways that partisan commentators haven't forseen - this is still my "most likely" tbh.

[Woodchopper]

Yeah, he's not the right guy for the job, surprise surprise.

There's also the fudgy fudgy NoDINO option where the rules get bent out of shape in ways that partisan commentators haven't forseen - this is still my "most likely" tbh.

That's kinda my option b) if they're going to mitigate as much as possible while waiting for ratification. But it would require a lot of trust and goodwill, which is lacking.

[jimbob]

von der Leyen reports progress on level playing field, "issues linked to governance are largely being resolved" but discussions of fish are still very difficult. Thinks a deal is possible over the next few days.
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status ... 11938?s=20

But ratification by the European Parliament by 31 December will be a huge problem. Fudges like provisional implementation may be possible but have negative consequences.

The options I see are:

1) No Deal - it will be a shitshow, but Johnson could try to blame "EU intransigence"
2) BINO (rolling over the current transition arrangements) - least bad option, fulfils the letter of his promise to "Get Brexit Done" but gets called a betrayal
3) Negotiating a deal - It will be a disaster (not as bad as no-deal) and Johnson couldn't blame the EU - as he'd have accepted the deal.


3 looks a bad option for Johnson - and would require him to do work.

As far as I know the current arrangements could only be extended into January as part of an agreed free trade treaty, otherwise transition ends on 31 January and that's it. (Other options existed earlier but we're out of time).

Options seem to be:

a) Political level agreement this week and provisional implementation by the EU Commission and member states pending later ratification by the EU parliament (and member states if applicable). Downsides are that would require a lot of trust which isn't there as there wouldn't be a definitive finished text by Sunday, and the EU Parliament would be very pissed off.

b) Political level agreement this week, some no deal chaos which is mitigated as much as possible in January. Full ratification in late January.

c) No agreement this week but both parties agree to keep talking. Full no deal chaos in January. Agreement and ratification sometime early 2021.

d) No agreement this week. Both sides decide to take stock. Chaos ensues. Talks resume some tim in the future. Agreement at some point (could be years).

My concern about b, c and d is that if the chaos is blamed on the EU by UK politicians and media then it may become more difficult for Johnson to make the compromises necessary to reach an agreement. They'll be denounced as a surrender and Johnson doesn't want to face down the Express and ERG.

As you write, it all comes down to Johnson's flawed personality.

It was Johnson that said we couldn't extend. So an extension and then BINO is technically possible, and would require minimal effort by Johnson.

[Woodchopper]

It was Johnson that said we couldn't extend. So an extension and then BINO is technically possible, and would require minimal effort by Johnson.

He did, and an extension would have been trivial back in the summer, and possible with some effort a few months ago. But as far as I'm aware, its too late now.

Basically an extension would require that they amend the Withdrawal Agreement or write a new treaty. But both would need first to be negotiated and ratified, and it doesn't look like there's time.

[Woodchopper]

EU sources saying U.K. has accepted the idea of ‘managed divergence’ in exchange for preferential access to single market. Ie if U.K. divergences from EU standards (which U.K. gov demands as its post #Brexit ‘sovereign right’) then EU has right to retaliate eg with tariffs

[...]

Still to be agreed: what mechanism to judge whether unfair advantage exists or not.. EU has accepted it can’t take unilateral action

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/statu ... 0667427841

More at the link.

If this was September it would look a lot more likley.

[jimbob]

It was Johnson that said we couldn't extend. So an extension and then BINO is technically possible, and would require minimal effort by Johnson.

He did, and an extension would have been trivial back in the summer, and possible with some effort a few months ago. But as far as I'm aware, its too late now.

Basically an extension would require that they amend the Withdrawal Agreement or write a new treaty. But both would need first to be negotiated and ratified, and it doesn't look like there's time.

No I was meaning on 8th-9th December:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/en ... c4c35f989/

The spokesperson did however reject suggestions from the European Commission on Tuesday morning that the Brexit trade talks could possibly be extended into January if there is still no agreement.

“We have been clear that the future relationship needs to be concluded by the end of the year and negotiations won’t continue into next year,” he said.

[sTeamTraen]

My understanding is that much of the UK's current trade with non-EU countries with whom the EU doesn't have a full trade deal is nevertheless covered by partial EU agreements. For example, I believe that there are certain economic sectors where there is an agreement between the EU and the US that is not far off what one would have in a more comprehensive FTA.

Am I right in thinking that those all turn into pumpkins at midnight on 31 December, because what is being negotiated now is only a new deal with the EU, not a deal to rollover the UK's membership of those sectoral agreements (which was what happened, de facto, when the Withdrawal Agreement asked everyone in the world to pretend that the UK was still in the EU)?

In other words, if a really really good trade deal is done between the UK and the EU, could it be that UK exporters to, say, the US might ironically end up being more shafted by Brexit than those who trade with the EU?

[TimW]

Am I right in thinking that those all turn into pumpkins at midnight on 31 December...

The government have been seeking to reproduce all those agreements in time for 1st Jan.
There's a list here:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-trade-ag ... -countries

[Woodchopper]

Update from Tony Connelly
https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status ... 88512?s=21

While both sides have a way to go, on the level playing field/state aid there is a landing zone in sight. On fisheries, both sides say that is "very difficult"

[...]

It looks as if all the energy is going into the LPF and once cracked, they'll barrel into the fisheries stuff. Governance, or how to solve disputes, looks like it has been more or less done

Much more at the thread.

[Woodchopper]

The government will pay vets up to £150 a time for export certificates which will be needed for food products going from GB-NI from January.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-55336683

[Woodchopper]

UK sets up borders but fails to fund port infrastructure to implement those borders
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/13 ... 47393?s=21

Dover requested £33 million, got £33 000. Wait for long queues in the summer.

[PeteB]

Am I right in thinking that those all turn into pumpkins at midnight on 31 December...

The government have been seeking to reproduce all those agreements in time for 1st Jan.
There's a list here:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-trade-ag ... -countries

Yes, there is a category of agreements that are not really trade deals in terms of tariffs and quotas but reduce non tariff barriers - fortunately some civil servant has grasped this and they have been trying to reproduce them eg https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-a ... -agreement

[Woodchopper]

It was Johnson that said we couldn't extend. So an extension and then BINO is technically possible, and would require minimal effort by Johnson.

He did, and an extension would have been trivial back in the summer, and possible with some effort a few months ago. But as far as I'm aware, its too late now.

Basically an extension would require that they amend the Withdrawal Agreement or write a new treaty. But both would need first to be negotiated and ratified, and it doesn't look like there's time.

No I was meaning on 8th-9th December:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/en ... c4c35f989/

The spokesperson did however reject suggestions from the European Commission on Tuesday morning that the Brexit trade talks could possibly be extended into January if there is still no agreement.

“We have been clear that the future relationship needs to be concluded by the end of the year and negotiations won’t continue into next year,” he said.

OK, I misunderstood. As far as I know under that suggestion the talks would continue after the UK was trading on WTO terms. Though as plodder points out if there was enough goodwill everyone might be creative in how they mitigate the effects.