Getting Brexit done

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sheldrake
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by sheldrake » Fri Dec 20, 2019 4:52 pm

dyqik wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 4:32 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 3:48 pm
veravista wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 3:31 pm

Partners with the EU or shackled to the states? Wish for independence? Yeah right.
The US isn't proposing a political union where the laws are written by people we can't vote out of office.
Well, no. Only the very stupid think that anyone at all would offer that.
That's exactly what the EU was. That's why so many people voted to leave despite the economic risks. I understand that this debate is an endless circle of 'civil servants draft regulation in the UK too', 'um that's not the same role as the EU comission' etc.. but lets just take it as read that I can't convince you and you cannot convince me. Leave just conclusively won because the worldview I described is more common. The same group of people won't see the American offer in the same light. You'll see.

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dyqik
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by dyqik » Fri Dec 20, 2019 4:54 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 4:52 pm
dyqik wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 4:32 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 3:48 pm


The US isn't proposing a political union where the laws are written by people we can't vote out of office.
Well, no. Only the very stupid think that anyone at all would offer that.
That's exactly what the EU was. That's why so many people voted to leave despite the economic risks. I understand that this debate is an endless circle of 'civil servants draft regulation in the UK too', 'um that's not the same role as the EU comission' etc.. but lets just take it as read that I can't convince you and you cannot convince me. Leave just conclusively won because the worldview I described is more common. The same group of people won't see the American offer in the same light. You'll see.
No, your lies about the EU don't fool anyone here.

sheldrake
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by sheldrake » Fri Dec 20, 2019 5:05 pm

dyqik wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 4:54 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 4:52 pm
dyqik wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 4:32 pm

Well, no. Only the very stupid think that anyone at all would offer that.
That's exactly what the EU was. That's why so many people voted to leave despite the economic risks. I understand that this debate is an endless circle of 'civil servants draft regulation in the UK too', 'um that's not the same role as the EU comission' etc.. but lets just take it as read that I can't convince you and you cannot convince me. Leave just conclusively won because the worldview I described is more common. The same group of people won't see the American offer in the same light. You'll see.
No, your lies about the EU don't fool anyone here.
I'm not lying about the EU. Everything I've said about how the EU legislative process works on badscience is true, I even sourced articles on the EU's own website to demonstrate it. Everything I've said about the lack of democratic accountability of EU commissioners is also true. You are entitled to like those processes, but most of the UK public did not.

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veravista
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by veravista » Fri Dec 20, 2019 5:30 pm

Legislative processes? Not interested particularly. What I fear is the complete and utter destruction of our engineering capability which, thanks to Government policy since the late 70's, has been dismantled and discouraged and effectively sold to US, European and Asian firms because, unlike us, they can organise a piss up in a brewery. I was a fervent proponent of UK engineering for most of my working life and this ridiculous act of self harm will destroy whats left of it. Now you may not care or think it's a price worth paying in the name of sovereignty, independence or some other bollocks but I don't.

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Gfamily
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Gfamily » Fri Dec 20, 2019 5:38 pm

Do you remember the 'massive leap in the value of the £' after the election, and all it symbolised

Looks like the market aren't so sure what it really means
GBP EUR exchange rate.PNG
GBP EUR exchange rate.PNG (54.72 KiB) Viewed 788 times
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

sheldrake
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by sheldrake » Fri Dec 20, 2019 6:15 pm

veravista wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 5:30 pm
I was a fervent proponent of UK engineering for most of my working life and this ridiculous act of self harm will destroy whats left of it.
No it won't.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by individualmember » Fri Dec 20, 2019 6:27 pm

GeenDienst wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:44 pm
Speaking of a tiny beleaguered group beset by ocverwelming forces, what's going to happen with Gibraltar? Spain is going to be permanently assertive/aggressive (delete according to prejudice) once the transition phase is safely out of the way.

They'll never agree to be part of Spain. Maybe they should go independent and rejoin the EU.
If the outcome of the War Of Spanish Succession is to be changed, then surely there are other territories across Europe that would also be in line for a reversion of sovereignty, not just Gibraltar?

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Little waster » Fri Dec 20, 2019 6:43 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 6:15 pm
veravista wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 5:30 pm
I was a fervent proponent of UK engineering for most of my working life and this ridiculous act of self harm will destroy whats left of it.
No it won't.
Show your working.
People who use Godwin's Law are worse than Hitler.

sheldrake
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by sheldrake » Fri Dec 20, 2019 7:21 pm

Little waster wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 6:43 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 6:15 pm
veravista wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 5:30 pm
I was a fervent proponent of UK engineering for most of my working life and this ridiculous act of self harm will destroy whats left of it.
No it won't.
Show your working.
New trade deals, deregulation and a cheap pound. We'll be alright as long as we don't have a heavy-handed left wing government for a decade or two.

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Martin Y
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Martin Y » Fri Dec 20, 2019 8:15 pm

Events since 2016 suggest that trade deals are not as easy to get as our government complacently told us. I'm not quite sure what you mean by deregulation but I worry that industries like aviation aren't going to be impressed that we can make parts more cheaply by ignoring all that pesky red tape. As for keeping the pound low, what do we do to persuade the market that the pound ain't worth what it was? Making a success of Brexit doesn't seem to fit the bill. Driving our Economic Miracle by persuading the markets it isn't happening seems unlikely to succeed.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Trinucleus » Fri Dec 20, 2019 8:45 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 7:21 pm
Little waster wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 6:43 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 6:15 pm


No it won't.
Show your working.
New trade deals, deregulation and a cheap pound. We'll be alright as long as we don't have a heavy-handed left wing government for a decade or two.
What about the end of tariff free movement of components across national boundaries?

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by jimbob » Fri Dec 20, 2019 9:39 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 6:15 pm
veravista wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 5:30 pm
I was a fervent proponent of UK engineering for most of my working life and this ridiculous act of self harm will destroy whats left of it.
No it won't.
It will harm it massively.

My field of manufacturing is different to veravista's but some features are common.

We bring in the precursor components and highly processed materials which need provable guaranteed quality levels and certificates of conformance. Often these materials have short shelf-lives. Manufacturers also have the minimum stocks that allow them to function reliably, as storage costs money.

We make components for other component manufacturers, so they then get shipped out to other manufacturers. Our customers also have limited stocks but a belt stop in one of their manufacturing lines is *very* costly - a former colleague was famous in company lore for once being flown to a US customer via Concorde in order to prevent a customer's line stop.

A no-deal Brexit with problems around standards would mean UK components being designed out.

Problems with customs delays and uncertainty about supplying customers would mean UK components being designed out.

The additional costs of importing the supplying components and precursor materials would make the uncertainty in supply harder adding to more cost.

Then you have the workforce. It's already difficult to attract highly-qualified engineers. About half my immediate colleagues are immigrants, with about half of those being EU citizens. Most have doctorates, and indeed I'd guess most had previously been postdocs. We've lost several EU citizens due to Brexit, and their concern over the difficulty of travel to see family.

This is a very superficial analysis - albeit better than David Davis managed with his sectoral analysis for my industry.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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jimbob
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by jimbob » Fri Dec 20, 2019 9:43 pm

And whilst the standards might be BSI or EU, a lot are also mandated by the customers, or the customers' insurers. If a customer mandates compliance with an EU standard and the UK has thrown away the recognition of the standard, then that is going to cause design-outs.

There's a bit of a theme developing.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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veravista
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by veravista » Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:54 pm

And, as usual Shelley, you ignore that one little fact. Make new trade deals with what? Shouldn't be difficult to come up with one or two examples as you seem to be so confident that the engineers and scientists on this board are all mistaken.

Not a difficult question is it? And one you've spectacularly avoided for quite a few years.

sheldrake
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by sheldrake » Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:04 pm

veravista wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:54 pm
And, as usual Shelley, you ignore that one little fact. Make new trade deals with what? Shouldn't be difficult to come up with one or two examples as you seem to be so confident that the engineers and scientists on this board are all mistaken.

Not a difficult question is it? And one you've spectacularly avoided for quite a few years.
No I haven't. The US, India, China, Canada, Australia.

I'm an engineer too.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by sheldrake » Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:07 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 8:15 pm
Events since 2016 suggest that trade deals are not as easy to get as our government complacently told us. I'm not quite sure what you mean by deregulation but I worry that industries like aviation aren't going to be impressed that we can make parts more cheaply by ignoring all that pesky red tape. As for keeping the pound low, what do we do to persuade the market that the pound ain't worth what it was? Making a success of Brexit doesn't seem to fit the bill. Driving our Economic Miracle by persuading the markets it isn't happening seems unlikely to succeed.
Borrow more and keep interest rates low.

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veravista
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by veravista » Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:07 pm

Try acting like an engineer and reading the question then. I said what are we going to trade, not with who?

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jimbob
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by jimbob » Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:09 pm

Trinucleus wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 8:45 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 7:21 pm
Little waster wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 6:43 pm


Show your working.
New trade deals, deregulation and a cheap pound. We'll be alright as long as we don't have a heavy-handed left wing government for a decade or two.
What about the end of tariff free movement of components across national boundaries?
And the tarrifs are important, but far less vital than the universal standards and other supporting infrastructure that took the EU up to Maastricht at least
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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GeenDienst
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by GeenDienst » Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:10 pm

Why do you humour it?
Just tell 'em I'm broke and don't come round here no more.

sheldrake
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by sheldrake » Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:12 pm

veravista wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:07 pm
Try acting like an engineer and reading the question then. I said what are we going to trade, not with who?
You said 'what are we going to make trade deals with'. We don't make trade deals with goods, we make trade deals about goods. If your grammar was a bit sharper your posts might be more intelligible.

We will be seeking terms favourable for our existing exports and access for our service industries. Most of our exports already go to non-EU countries.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by veravista » Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:19 pm

Oh for f.cks sake. One more time. To do trade deals we need something to trade. What goods are we going to do trade deals with?

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by jimbob » Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:21 pm

So what field of engineering do you work in, which is not going to be adversely affected by Brexit?

Because it sure as hell isn't high-tech manufacturing, which is where I work; I understand that veravista works in a different industry, but also high-tech manufacturing.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by jimbob » Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:23 pm

veravista wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:19 pm
Oh for f.cks sake. One more time. To do trade deals we need something to trade. What goods are we going to do trade deals with?
That's quite simple - anything that doesn't need raw materials from outside the UK and doesn't need to go into other factories outside the UK.

You know, innovative jams, made with beet sugar. Although the food standard issues might be a problem.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by sheldrake » Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:38 pm

Your whole contention that physical goods will be blocked by non-tariff barriers is a misunderstanding of WTO rules. Completely barmy.

sheldrake
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by sheldrake » Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:38 pm

veravista wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:19 pm
Oh for f.cks sake. One more time. To do trade deals we need something to trade. What goods are we going to do trade deals with?
The goods we trade outside the EU now. I don't understand why you refuse to accept that answer.

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