Getting Brexit done

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Grumble
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Grumble » Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:24 am

Nothing says confident nation state going it alone better than waiting on the results of another country’s election before making a major decision.
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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Little waster
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Little waster » Sun Oct 25, 2020 11:00 am

Grumble wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:24 am
Nothing says confident nation state going it alone better than waiting on the results of another country’s election before making a major decision.
It is a sign that we’ve have retaken control of our destiny from dirty foreigners and can now forge our own path unhindered by the decisions of politicians we’ve had no say in electing.
People who use Godwin's Law are worse than Hitler.

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Martin Y
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Martin Y » Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:21 pm

Grumble wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:24 am
Nothing says confident nation state going it alone better than waiting on the results of another country’s election before making a major decision.
Nominated.

Oh, wait, that's the other place. V. good pith, anyway.

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Woodchopper
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:30 pm

A good thread on Biden and the UK US trade deal.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/statu ... 62689?s=20
tl;dr there's a big deadline in July 2021, election of Biden makes it more difficult to get it done by then.

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individualmember
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by individualmember » Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:55 pm

This morning I went into a pro-leave Facebook group. Jeezusfuckingchrist what a load of horrible attitudes :(

Anyway, the big topic of the day seemed to be not allowing anyone with a criminal conviction enter the UK. I posted that in the event of a no deal our authorities would have no idea whether anyone coming in had a conviction or not because negotiating access to that kind of information is part of the comprehensive deal, to be done, it’s a bunch of paragraphs in the political declaration of last October.

Oddly, I think, there has been no response during the day. Not even abuse. I’m almost disappointed to not be the recipient of a nasty ad hom :?

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Woodchopper
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Oct 29, 2020 6:39 pm

After a week of negotiations in the tunnel we have a little news. von der Leyen reports that they are making good progress. But no mention of any breakthroughs on the most difficult issues.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... SApp_Other

Talks will be in Brussels next week. They have about two weeks left.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by veravista » Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:38 pm

Yebbut, cheaper soya sauce*

* or maybe not

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Woodchopper
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:30 pm

Barnier states “ Working hard for an agreement. Much remains to be done.”
https://twitter.com/michelbarnier/statu ... 81287?s=21

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Woodchopper
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:53 pm

People involved in the negotiations said intensive talks in London earlier this week had delivered substantial progress in drafting the text of a deal, but that real breakthroughs on the outstanding issues remained elusive. Talks resumed in Brussels on Friday and will continue through the weekend.

Both sides see mid-November as the absolute deadline, because the text will need to be legally checked and ratified by the EU and UK parliaments before the end of Britain’s post-Brexit transition period on December 31.

[...]

People involved in the talks said Britain and Brussels still needed to overcome deep-rooted disagreements over EU fishing rights in British waters, “level playing field” conditions for business and governance arrangements of the future deal.

[...]

The “main problems remain blocked”, said one EU official, noting nonetheless that a lot of drafting work had taken place on the level playing field issue, in the effort to find common ground.

In particular, no headway has been made in divvying up each side’s fishing rights for the more than 100 fish stocks that are spread between EU and UK waters. The EU is also still pushing to secure long-term guaranteed access for its boats to British waters.

On the level playing field, the two sides are seeking to craft a set of common principles that would prevent governments from giving their businesses an unfair advantage through subsidies.

While one EU official said there were “glimmers of hope” on the level playing field, another person involved in the negotiation said that even this was “an optimistic take”.

The small window of time left for negotiations is presenting a challenge in the talks even in areas where there is considerable agreement, such as social security co-operation, as officials work intensively to hammer out a joint legal text.
https://www.ft.com/content/ea4a0508-c5d ... 87fb8a61b3

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:11 pm

No significant movement on fisheries
https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status ... 05058?s=21

A week and a half to go.

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Woodchopper
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:46 am

More on the lack of progress in the negotiations:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brit ... SKBN27J1IF

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by plodder » Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:04 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:46 am
More on the lack of progress in the negotiations:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brit ... SKBN27J1IF
I see the solution looks like another “transition period”, ie kick it into the long grass

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Woodchopper
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:51 am

plodder wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:04 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:46 am
More on the lack of progress in the negotiations:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brit ... SKBN27J1IF
I see the solution looks like another “transition period”, ie kick it into the long grass
I agree, that would be a sensible solution. But...

That's already been rejected and ruled out multiple times by Johnson. So if it happened it would be a humiliation for him.

There isn't an easy method to get an extension to transition as the mechanism was already ruled out by Johnson. It would probably be possible with a lot of creativity and goodwill on both sides. But that goodwill may be lacking.

In some respects the Macron etc may want a no-deal because then he may assume that after a few months of chaos the UK might come back to the negotiating table and offer more.

We are running out of time to organize an extension.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Little waster » Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:04 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:51 am
plodder wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:04 am

I see the solution looks like another “transition period”, ie kick it into the long grass
I agree, that would be a sensible solution. But...

That's already been rejected and ruled out multiple times by Johnson. So if it happened it would be a humiliation for him.
And that would be completely without precedent ...


On an unrelated note did the FME ever establish how Johnson's bloated decaying corpse ended up in that ditch?
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by plodder » Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:07 am

Yes, agree, but of course a ‘managed and orderly transition’ (feel free to use your own euphemism) is very different from an extension...

Fishing’s the red herring (lol). It doesn’t matter except for appearances. My money is on the UK declaring victory on fishing to mask compromises on state aid and adjudication .

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:34 am

plodder wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:07 am
Fishing’s the red herring (lol). It doesn’t matter except for appearances. My money is on the UK declaring victory on fishing to mask compromises on state aid and adjudication .
Sort of. The problem is that its a symbol for both sides. Britain want to have full sovereignty over its waters. France etc wanting to continue to have access to waters which they have had for centuries.

Symbols are important even if they don't involve much money.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by plodder » Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:48 am

True, but a renegotiation every year isn't a huge concession for the French. They're probably closer to an agreement on fishing than the other issues.

Liz Truss appears to be nervous:

https://www.businessinsider.com/leaked- ... ssion=true

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Fishnut » Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:54 am

Can someone please explain why fishing has come to dominate the negotiations so much? It's a tiny industry - according to this government research briefing published last month there were 12,043 fishers working in 2019. Marine fishing was worth £453 million of the UK's gross value added (whatever that means) in 2018, or "around 0.04% of the UK's GVA in the non-financial business economy" (p11). We're also a net importer (by about 269k tonnes in 2019) of fish so you'd think we'd be wanting to do what we can to ensure we have access to those imports. And 37% of 2019 landings were abroad.

I really don't understand why we're treating fisheries as this red line, or why we're playing such hardball when we need access to EU waters.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by sTeamTraen » Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:00 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:11 pm
No significant movement on fisheries
https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status ... 05058?s=21

A week and a half to go.
I'm assuming that if they get to a deal a week or two late, with a document that all agree on but no time to ratify it, an assortment of discretionary measures will be agreed whereby both sides agree to briefly waive whatever formalities would be needed in a no-deal situation.

But from what I've understood so far, anything short of SM+CU membership means that even with a deal, large amount of paperwork and concomitant border delays are inevitable anyway. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:05 pm

Fishnut wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:54 am
Can someone please explain why fishing has come to dominate the negotiations so much? It's a tiny industry - according to this government research briefing published last month there were 12,043 fishers working in 2019. Marine fishing was worth £453 million of the UK's gross value added (whatever that means) in 2018, or "around 0.04% of the UK's GVA in the non-financial business economy" (p11). We're also a net importer (by about 269k tonnes in 2019) of fish so you'd think we'd be wanting to do what we can to ensure we have access to those imports. And 37% of 2019 landings were abroad.

I really don't understand why we're treating fisheries as this red line, or why we're playing such hardball when we need access to EU waters.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:27 pm

Fishnut wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:54 am
Can someone please explain why fishing has come to dominate the negotiations so much? It's a tiny industry - according to this government research briefing published last month there were 12,043 fishers working in 2019. Marine fishing was worth £453 million of the UK's gross value added (whatever that means) in 2018, or "around 0.04% of the UK's GVA in the non-financial business economy" (p11). We're also a net importer (by about 269k tonnes in 2019) of fish so you'd think we'd be wanting to do what we can to ensure we have access to those imports. And 37% of 2019 landings were abroad.

I really don't understand why we're treating fisheries as this red line, or why we're playing such hardball when we need access to EU waters.
Fishing boats are the visual manifestation of the UK getting sovereignty back from the EU. If the UK has sovereignty then the least it can do is decide who gets to fish in its waters. Alternatively, if fishing rights are largely unchanged then it looks like its a Brexit in name only and the project has been sold out.

For the French etc the issue is that the North Sea and North Atlantic round Scotland aren't British waters. UK territorial waters just extend for 12 nautical miles, beyond which they are international waters. The UK can claim an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) out to 200 nautical miles. However, the UK has previously recognized the historic rights of other states to fish in parts of the the North Sea claimed by Britain. So for France, a UK assertion of full sovereignty over all waters 200 nautical miles from the UK coast is taking things too far.

Fishing isn't about the economics. Its about the meaning of the UK's sovereignty after it leaves the EU, which is why its an important issue for all sides.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:33 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:00 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:11 pm
No significant movement on fisheries
https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status ... 05058?s=21

A week and a half to go.
I'm assuming that if they get to a deal a week or two late, with a document that all agree on but no time to ratify it, an assortment of discretionary measures will be agreed whereby both sides agree to briefly waive whatever formalities would be needed in a no-deal situation.
Possibly. It won't be the end of the world if all parties can agree to act as if the transition period remains for a few weeks. But there are issues with legal authority so some emergency legislation might be needed.

More importantly, what if one government decides that they think they can get a better deal if the negotiations have to be restarted.
sTeamTraen wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:00 pm
But from what I've understood so far, anything short of SM+CU membership means that even with a deal, large amount of paperwork and concomitant border delays are inevitable anyway. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Yes, even if they manage to agree something over the next few days there will be a lot more paperwork for traders etc whatever happens.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:35 pm

Still, on the plus side a Trump presidency might make getting a trade deal with a major economy a bit easier.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Fishnut » Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:39 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:27 pm
Fishnut wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:54 am
Can someone please explain why fishing has come to dominate the negotiations so much? It's a tiny industry - according to this government research briefing published last month there were 12,043 fishers working in 2019. Marine fishing was worth £453 million of the UK's gross value added (whatever that means) in 2018, or "around 0.04% of the UK's GVA in the non-financial business economy" (p11). We're also a net importer (by about 269k tonnes in 2019) of fish so you'd think we'd be wanting to do what we can to ensure we have access to those imports. And 37% of 2019 landings were abroad.

I really don't understand why we're treating fisheries as this red line, or why we're playing such hardball when we need access to EU waters.
Fishing boats are the visual manifestation of the UK getting sovereignty back from the EU. If the UK has sovereignty then the least it can do is decide who gets to fish in its waters. Alternatively, if fishing rights are largely unchanged then it looks like its a Brexit in name only and the project has been sold out.

For the French etc the issue is that the North Sea and North Atlantic round Scotland aren't British waters. UK territorial waters just extend for 12 nautical miles, beyond which they are international waters. The UK can claim an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) out to 200 nautical miles. However, the UK has previously recognized the historic rights of other states to fish in parts of the the North Sea claimed by Britain. So for France, a UK assertion of full sovereignty over all waters 200 nautical miles from the UK coast is taking things too far.

Fishing isn't about the economics. Its about the meaning of the UK's sovereignty after it leaves the EU, which is why its an important issue for all sides.
Thank you. That makes sense (for a specific definition of sense)

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by jimbob » Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:01 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:35 pm
Still, on the plus side a Trump presidency might make getting a trade deal with a major economy a bit easier.
At the cost of peace in Northern Ireland? And when such a deal would need to be ratified by Congress?
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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