Getting Brexit done

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Gfamily
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Gfamily » Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:40 pm

veravista wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:14 pm
Blimey, didn't see that coming.....

https://twitter.com/g_gosden/status/1327627233624776706
I think it's disputed whether that actually is the site of Spoiler:
, but I have read that construction has been affected by flooding
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Woodchopper
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:41 am

Sources in the European parliament said there had been discussions about holding an extraordinary sitting of the chamber after Christmas – on 28 December – as a senior EU diplomat conceded that Brussels might need to be “creative” to get the agreement ratified.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... h-minister

I get the desire to be flexible. However, the problem with reports like this is that it means that there is a lack of clarity on exactly when the deadline is, which could lead to miscalculations.

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Woodchopper
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:44 am

In other news
Poland and Hungary veto EU budget plan
The two countries have followed through on their threat to block spending plans through to 2027. The EU needs a unanimous vote from all 27 members in order to pass the budget and coronavirus economic recovery fund.
https://www.dw.com/en/poland-and-hungar ... a-55618272

An issue for this thread as for the EU member states the EU budget is a much more pressing problem than Brexit. Attention of national leaders is already occupied by Covid and its economic consequences. Add in another EU crisis and the ability of the EU27 to agree upon a possible compromise is constrained.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:34 pm

BREXIT boss David Frost has told Boris Johnson to expect a Brussels trade deal “early next week”, The Sun can reveal.

Britain’s chief negotiator has pinpointed “a possible landing zone” as soon as next Tuesday.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13216076/ ... next-week/

Seven days time looks like it might just be possible.

No idea whether this is a leak instigated by Johnson to prepare the way for a deal, or just more fluff.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Little waster » Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:27 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:34 pm

Britain’s chief negotiator has pinpointed “a possible landing zone” as soon as next Tuesday.
In much the same way “a possible landing zone” can be pinpointed after Wile E Coyote runs off a cliff for the 13th time.
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Woodchopper
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Nov 17, 2020 7:30 pm

Talk of an ‘adjustment period’ after 1 January in which things stay as they are for a bit and then new regulations are phased in.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit ... eu-6353554

Sensible, but probably won’t happen. Will be condemned by the Express etc as Brexit in Name Only. Also, there would need to be difficult negotiations on things like whether the UK would need to contribute to the EU budget in return. And there isn’t time for that.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Gfamily » Wed Nov 18, 2020 10:48 am

Government advises schools to stockpile long life food for next term as fresh food supplies may be disrupted.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... nal-impact
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by plodder » Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:21 pm

NI businesses saying protocols are "nowhere near ready" and that both sides should take more responsibility (playing to the crowd, much?)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -extension

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Little waster » Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:37 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 10:48 am
Government advises schools to stockpile long life food for next term as fresh food supplies may be disrupted.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... nal-impact
David Davis's "considerable upside" just keeps getting more considerable and uppier.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Vertigowooyay » Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:44 pm

Little waster wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:37 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 10:48 am
Government advises schools to stockpile long life food for next term as fresh food supplies may be disrupted.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... nal-impact
David Davis's "considerable upside" just keeps getting more considerable and uppier.
But I thought the sunlit uplands would provide all our dietary needs?
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Little waster » Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:50 pm

Vertigowooyay wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:44 pm
Little waster wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:37 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 10:48 am
Government advises schools to stockpile long life food for next term as fresh food supplies may be disrupted.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... nal-impact
David Davis's "considerable upside" just keeps getting more considerable and uppier.
But I thought the sunlit uplands would provide all our dietary needs?
IANAfarmer but I've always heard* that uplands (sunny or otherwise) actually make piss-poor farmlands. Soggy Damp valley bottoms, that's what you want. With irrigation and railroad obv.



*source: Sid Meier's Civilization passim
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Woodchopper
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:09 pm

the latest warning comes as the EU cautions Britain it has fewer than 10 days left to secure a deal governing trade from next year.

“If it happens without any sustainable business case, obviously it is not a question of Sunderland or not Sunderland, obviously our UK business will not be sustainable, that’s it,” Ashwani Gupta, Nissan’s chief operating officer (COO), told Reuters on Wednesday.
https://www.reuters.com/article/britain ... NL1N2I40NI

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by dyqik » Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:10 pm

Vertigowooyay wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:44 pm
Little waster wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:37 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 10:48 am
Government advises schools to stockpile long life food for next term as fresh food supplies may be disrupted.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... nal-impact
David Davis's "considerable upside" just keeps getting more considerable and uppier.
But I thought the sunlit uplands would provide all our dietary needs?
I think David Davis might have forgotten about the tree line.

This is both an upland and sunlit:
Image

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by veravista » Wed Nov 18, 2020 11:05 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:09 pm
the latest warning comes as the EU cautions Britain it has fewer than 10 days left to secure a deal governing trade from next year.

“If it happens without any sustainable business case, obviously it is not a question of Sunderland or not Sunderland, obviously our UK business will not be sustainable, that’s it,” Ashwani Gupta, Nissan’s chief operating officer (COO), told Reuters on Wednesday.
https://www.reuters.com/article/britain ... NL1N2I40NI
If only someone could have foreseen that!

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Martin_B » Thu Nov 19, 2020 12:45 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:09 pm
the latest warning comes as the EU cautions Britain it has fewer than 10 days left to secure a deal governing trade from next year.

“If it happens without any sustainable business case, obviously it is not a question of Sunderland or not Sunderland, obviously our UK business will not be sustainable, that’s it,” Ashwani Gupta, Nissan’s chief operating officer (COO), told Reuters on Wednesday.
https://www.reuters.com/article/britain ... NL1N2I40NI
Britain's car industry is bigger than at any time under the old British Leyland/Ford/Vauxhall days, but it's mainly assembling cars from parts made elsewhere and shipped in, or making parts (especially engines) which are then shipped elsewhere for assembly. IIRC, Ford's Dagenham and Elsemere Port sites make engines which are then shipped to Germany, the US, even Mexico. All of this movement of parts is within the same company's ownership, but will be made much more difficult if there isn't a Brexit deal. I wouldn't be surprised if almost every car company currently involved in the UK will just pull up sticks within ~6 months as the hassle and delays of moving car parts around will make it easier to open a new plant in a non-buggered country.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by sTeamTraen » Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:13 am

Martin_B wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 12:45 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:09 pm
the latest warning comes as the EU cautions Britain it has fewer than 10 days left to secure a deal governing trade from next year.

“If it happens without any sustainable business case, obviously it is not a question of Sunderland or not Sunderland, obviously our UK business will not be sustainable, that’s it,” Ashwani Gupta, Nissan’s chief operating officer (COO), told Reuters on Wednesday.
https://www.reuters.com/article/britain ... NL1N2I40NI
Britain's car industry is bigger than at any time under the old British Leyland/Ford/Vauxhall days, but it's mainly assembling cars from parts made elsewhere and shipped in, or making parts (especially engines) which are then shipped elsewhere for assembly. IIRC, Ford's Dagenham and Elsemere Port sites make engines which are then shipped to Germany, the US, even Mexico. All of this movement of parts is within the same company's ownership, but will be made much more difficult if there isn't a Brexit deal. I wouldn't be surprised if almost every car company currently involved in the UK will just pull up sticks within ~6 months as the hassle and delays of moving car parts around will make it easier to open a new plant in a non-buggered country.
Up to now I have thought this was unlikely, as nothing has been settled yet and these things take time to arrange. So for the executives who have to take the go/stay decision, there was plenty in each column to offset against each other. (That said, Honda saw the writing on the wall two years ago.)

But now, if they are looking at JIT falling apart even with a trade deal, they'll be revealing the contingency plans that they've been making. For many of them it will presumably just mean expanding existing sites within the EU.

Just as one example, there's an automatic transmission supplier on the edge of Strasbourg that could treble in size on the same site by just clearing some land. It's a lot closer to Ford's plants in Germany and Spain than Halewood, and could probably deliver most of the way to the former by water.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Little waster » Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:01 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:13 am
Martin_B wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 12:45 am
Britain's car industry is bigger than at any time under the old British Leyland/Ford/Vauxhall days, but it's mainly assembling cars from parts made elsewhere and shipped in, or making parts (especially engines) which are then shipped elsewhere for assembly. IIRC, Ford's Dagenham and Elsemere Port sites make engines which are then shipped to Germany, the US, even Mexico. All of this movement of parts is within the same company's ownership, but will be made much more difficult if there isn't a Brexit deal. I wouldn't be surprised if almost every car company currently involved in the UK will just pull up sticks within ~6 months as the hassle and delays of moving car parts around will make it easier to open a new plant in a non-buggered country.
Up to now I have thought this was unlikely, as nothing has been settled yet and these things take time to arrange. So for the executives who have to take the go/stay decision, there was plenty in each column to offset against each other. (That said, Honda saw the writing on the wall two years ago.)

But now, if they are looking at JIT falling apart even with a trade deal, they'll be revealing the contingency plans that they've been making. For many of them it will presumably just mean expanding existing sites within the EU.

Just as one example, there's an automatic transmission supplier on the edge of Strasbourg that could treble in size on the same site by just clearing some land. It's a lot closer to Ford's plants in Germany and Spain than Halewood, and could probably deliver most of the way to the former by water.
In which case we will retaliate by bringing home all the innovative jam-related jobs that presumably the EU27's economies are critically dependent on.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by veravista » Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:23 am

I've talked about this for years. I have a good friend who works for Toyota who has now moved to Portugal, he's been responsible for setting up the new lines for full car assembly. They're working at about 25% capacity at the moment until such time as they may be needed sometime in the future. Toyota is not known for grandstanding, and will just shut Derby and Teeside and could move production entirely in 2 months if they needed to (but more like 6). They will transfer about 75% of the plant (the new stuff) which is modular and will slot it in in Belgium and Portugal as needed, a lot of staff are also being offered assisted transfers. The potential of the move was pretty obvious when the new Auris line in Derby was being part supplied with bodywork from Europe - unheard of in modern automotive manufacturing which is always done as close to the assembly line as possible.

They will also, along with Nissan, take the UK to court over change in conditions of production and get the tariffs back for the time they stay.

Still that's only 3000 direct jobs and potentially 7000 tier 2 jobs.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Little waster » Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:31 am

Little waster wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:01 am

In which case we will retaliate by bringing home all the innovative jam-related jobs that presumably the EU27's economies are critically dependent on.
TBF I'm being unfairly facetious; after 4 years hard thinking the Brexiteers have collectively have also come up with "selling pigs ears to the Chinese" as well, which could be worth up to £2m a year so it is churlish of me to ignore that.

I think we can all agree that our post-Brexit is actually a lot rosier than I made out, unless you are a pig. I look forward to what other niche markets they come up with in the decades to come.

Novelty tartan tins of shortbread perhaps ... unless Scotland does off.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by lpm » Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:40 am

The deal with the Faroe Islands did not include tartan tins of shortbread so will need to be renegotiated. I don't think it will be a problem though, even Johnson could get it done within 6-7 years, so things look good for both tartan tin makers and shortbread makers in the long term.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Vertigowooyay » Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:59 am

lpm wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:40 am
The deal with the Faroe Islands did not include tartan tins of shortbread so will need to be renegotiated. I don't think it will be a problem though, even Johnson could get it done within 6-7 years, so things look good for both tartan tin makers and shortbread makers in the long term.
Except everyone is baking at home during lockdown, so the future of store-bought shortbread is looking pretty shaky.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by lpm » Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:47 am

Remoaner traiter SCUM why dont you beleive in BREXIT BRITAIN the faro islands need us more than we need them
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Nov 19, 2020 12:08 pm

The excellent Mujtaba Rahman makes a good point. The current deal (excluding fish etc) is going to be a hard sell for Johnson. Not because of what's written, as the ERG headbangers won't read it anyway. But because its 600 pages of legalese. It'll look like a mini version of EU membership even if it is far less. https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1 ... 88354?s=20

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:13 pm

Don't read your trade deals, weigh them.
THINK BIG AND UPEND THE SYSTEM

#ShowYourStripes

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:36 pm

Good update by Tony Connelly
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status ... 30311?s=20

Not much chance of agreeing a deal by Monday. After that its down to creative solutions - eg provisionally implement some bits and wait for ratification of the rest. Or go through with no-deal and hope to restart talks in the New Year.

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