Getting Brexit done

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veravista
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by veravista » Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:57 pm

Great little piece in Private Eye about how we are unwilling to give way on fishing (worth about £1.4bn) but have basically already can't be bothered to do anything about increasing UK-France energy interconnector capacity (currently worth about £126bn). So they willing to throw the energy sector under a bus (Macron won't budge on energy concessions) to keep fish...

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Nov 19, 2020 2:03 pm

veravista wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:57 pm
Great little piece in Private Eye about how we are unwilling to give way on fishing (worth about £1.4bn) but have basically already can't be bothered to do anything about increasing UK-France energy interconnector capacity (currently worth about £126bn). So they willing to throw the energy sector under a bus (Macron won't budge on energy concessions) to keep fish...
I suspect that France etc are willing to make a compromise on fish. But only if the UK also compromises on state aid, governance and the Internal Market Bill. That would give Johnson a symbolic victory that he could wave at the ERG. But he still has to give way on the other issues.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by veravista » Thu Nov 19, 2020 2:16 pm

That's quite a large 'If' though.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by shpalman » Thu Nov 19, 2020 3:01 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:36 pm
Good update by Tony Connelly
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status ... 30311?s=20

Not much chance of agreeing a deal by Monday. After that its down to creative solutions - eg provisionally implement some bits and wait for ratification of the rest. Or go through with no-deal and hope to restart talks in the New Year.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by lpm » Thu Nov 19, 2020 3:02 pm

Lol.

I say lol, but of course mean f.ck. And also lol.

Perhaps with the benefit of hindsight we should have extended the transition due to the pandemic but nobody was saying that at the time. Except for everybody saying it.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Beaker » Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:07 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:40 am
The deal with the Faroe Islands did not include tartan tins of shortbread so will need to be renegotiated. I don't think it will be a problem though, even Johnson could get it done within 6-7 years, so things look good for both tartan tin makers and shortbread makers in the long term.
I think they are dumping the Faroes stock already - tonight we got a free tartan tin of shortbread with our shopping delivery. With a fawn on.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Nov 20, 2020 10:39 am

The EU and Britain are very close to agreement on most issues as time runs out for a trade deal but they are still at odds over fishing rights, guarantees of fair competition and ways to solve future disputes, an EU official told ambassadors in Brussels.

“We are both close and far away. It seems that we are very close to agreement on most issues but differences on the three contentious issues persist,” a senior EU diplomat said after ambassadors were briefed on Friday by an EU negotiator.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-brit ... SKBN2800V0

The other issue is the Internal Market bill, which the EU expects to be revised.

Ignore the 'very close', there hasn't been a change.

Unless there is a very busy weekend, on Monday it'll look like a choice between some kind of creative fudge to buy time or no-deal. Fudging won't be easy and will take a lot of goodwill on both sides.

On the other hand, it looks like neither side wants to be the one to pull the plug.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by plodder » Fri Nov 20, 2020 11:46 am

Neither side will build Irish border infrastructure, so fudge it is.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by bjn » Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:36 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 10:39 am
The EU and Britain are very close to agreement on most issues as time runs out for a trade deal but they are still at odds over fishing rights, guarantees of fair competition and ways to solve future disputes, an EU official told ambassadors in Brussels.

We are both close and far away. It seems that we are very close to agreement on most issues but differences on the three contentious issues persist,” a senior EU diplomat said after ambassadors were briefed on Friday by an EU negotiator.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-brit ... SKBN2800V0
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Little waster » Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:43 pm

bjn wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:36 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 10:39 am
The EU and Britain are very close to agreement on most issues as time runs out for a trade deal but they are still at odds over fishing rights, guarantees of fair competition and ways to solve future disputes, an EU official told ambassadors in Brussels.

We are both close and far away. It seems that we are very close to agreement on most issues but differences on the three contentious issues persist,” a senior EU diplomat said after ambassadors were briefed on Friday by an EU negotiator.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-brit ... SKBN2800V0
Is someone on the negotiating team a Father Ted fan?
I'd make a quip about the British negotiator appearing to be Father Jack but the sad reality is Father Jack had a clear grasp of his demands, they were realistic and his ability to clearly articulate them simply puts the UK to shame.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Nov 20, 2020 3:50 pm

plodder wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 11:46 am
Neither side will build Irish border infrastructure, so fudge it is.
Are you including "Irish Sea border" as a fudge option? I reckon that's the most likely outcome, long-term.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by plodder » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:11 pm

I'm including "not really an Irish Sea border, but sort of" as a fudge option.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Little waster » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:31 pm

plodder wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:11 pm
I'm including "not really an Irish Sea border, but sort of" as a fudge option.
I'm thinking "actually a hard Irish Sea border but the UK will unconvincingly pretend it isn't" is the likeliest outcome.

Which is fudge in the sense that if I openly sh.t in the fudge tin (another possible post-Brexit Red, White n Blue Tiger industry) and then I inform everyone I've shat in the fudge tin, you are perfectly entitled to claim what you are eating is fudge but you won't be fooling anyone.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by plodder » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:46 pm

But we won’t really put the infrastructure in place for this. We don’t have time, or the people, or the IT. These are all well reported issues. Everyone will have to pretend, even under the WTO scenario. There won’t be border infrastructure anywhere on Jan 1st, that’s a fact.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Little waster » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:54 pm

plodder wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:46 pm
But we won’t really put the infrastructure in place for this. We don’t have time, or the people, or the IT. These are all well reported issues. Everyone will have to pretend, even under the WTO scenario. There won’t be border infrastructure anywhere on Jan 1st, that’s a fact.
Hence Irish Sea border as the only points of ingress/egress will be a couple of ports and airports which are natural pinch points and already have the basic infrastructure and people in place.

It is infinitely easier to monitor the comings and goings of the people and cargo one ship or plane at a time then try to track hundreds of cars, trucks and pedestrians wandering backwards and forwards across an imaginary line on the ground running through forests, car-parks and kitchens.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by plodder » Fri Nov 20, 2020 5:58 pm

Sure, but the processes are nowhere near ready. So it’ll be a pretend sea border, at least during the fudge period. How could it be anything else?

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Nov 20, 2020 6:51 pm

What would the EU lose by not fudging it? It seems like most of the downsides of suddenly being responsible for a brand-new sea border would fall on the UK.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by plodder » Fri Nov 20, 2020 8:23 pm

the EU won’t put the border infrastructure in though.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Nov 20, 2020 8:25 pm

Sure, it would be the UK's responsibility. But I don't see why the EU would let them get away with not bothering. There's not much goodwill left.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by plodder » Fri Nov 20, 2020 11:25 pm

what does “let them get away with” mean, exactly?

it’s going to be a fudge, to spare everyone’s blushes.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Nov 21, 2020 2:51 am

Well, you know, there's all this international law and stuff. Politics, money, WTO, yadda yadda. If the UK is meant to be running a border and they just don't bother at all, I don't see why the EU would just be all like, "Oh, whatever man, I guess you've got a lot on your plate right now, don't worry too much about the integrity of the single market, it's no biggy or whatever."

Does the EU have more to lose from Ireland missing out on some UK imports for a few months, or from letting the UK continue to get away with taking the absolute piss?

In other words I'm not sure what downside the EU faces from trying to drive a hard bargain over an Irish Sea border, for instance by putting extra tarrifs on some financial stuff or whatever (I'm not in charge, I don't need to pretend to predict the details). At least compared with allowing a permeable border, forcing the UK to put livestock inspectors on all the ferries would be hilarious.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Nov 21, 2020 7:58 am

Latest update
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-co ... -analysis/

tl;dr There may be a fudge to buy a bit more time allowing provisional application of an agreement by the Commission and ratification after 1 January. But doing so may open up a heap of future complications that could last years.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by plodder » Sat Nov 21, 2020 11:35 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Nov 21, 2020 2:51 am
Well, you know, there's all this international law and stuff. Politics, money, WTO, yadda yadda. If the UK is meant to be running a border and they just don't bother at all, I don't see why the EU would just be all like, "Oh, whatever man, I guess you've got a lot on your plate right now, don't worry too much about the integrity of the single market, it's no biggy or whatever."

Does the EU have more to lose from Ireland missing out on some UK imports for a few months, or from letting the UK continue to get away with taking the absolute piss?

In other words I'm not sure what downside the EU faces from trying to drive a hard bargain over an Irish Sea border, for instance by putting extra tarrifs on some financial stuff or whatever (I'm not in charge, I don't need to pretend to predict the details). At least compared with allowing a permeable border, forcing the UK to put livestock inspectors on all the ferries would be hilarious.
What can the EU force the UK to do, exactly?

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Little waster » Sat Nov 21, 2020 11:45 am

How has a blind refusal by the UK to face any of the inherent hard choices of Brexit and the baseless assumption that the EU27 will simply back down at the 11th hour worked out for us so far?

If a boxing match was racking up a comparable points rally the referee would have ended it by now and brought in the paramedics.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Nov 21, 2020 1:48 pm

plodder wrote:
Sat Nov 21, 2020 11:35 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Nov 21, 2020 2:51 am
Well, you know, there's all this international law and stuff. Politics, money, WTO, yadda yadda. If the UK is meant to be running a border and they just don't bother at all, I don't see why the EU would just be all like, "Oh, whatever man, I guess you've got a lot on your plate right now, don't worry too much about the integrity of the single market, it's no biggy or whatever."

Does the EU have more to lose from Ireland missing out on some UK imports for a few months, or from letting the UK continue to get away with taking the absolute piss?

In other words I'm not sure what downside the EU faces from trying to drive a hard bargain over an Irish Sea border, for instance by putting extra tarrifs on some financial stuff or whatever (I'm not in charge, I don't need to pretend to predict the details). At least compared with allowing a permeable border, forcing the UK to put livestock inspectors on all the ferries would be hilarious.
What can the EU force the UK to do, exactly?
They could stick tariffs on everything, block imports and refuse further negotiation on anything till they're running the border properly? Invalidate the tiny number of international truck permits that exist? Take them to court?

The EU holds a lot of cards here, and is comparatively well-run. The UK needs them more than the EU needs the UK, remember. So I don't think playing silly buggers with international law would play out well in the UK's favour.
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