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Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Wed Nov 25, 2020 9:43 am
by Woodchopper
von der Leyen to the EU Parliament:
“These are decisive days. I cannot tell you today if in the end there will be a deal. There has been genuine progress on important questions. However, there are still three issues that can make the difference between a deal & no-deal.”
“We will do all in our power to reach an agreement. We are ready to be creative. But we are not ready to put into question the integrity of the Single Market. The main safeguard for European prosperity and wealth.”
“The EU is well prepared for a no-deal scenario but of course we prefer to have an agreement. One thing is clear: whatever the outcome, there has to be and there will be a clear difference between being a full member of the [European Union] and just being a valued partner.”
https://twitter.com/DanielFerrie/status ... 60448?s=20
They really aren't talking like people who are just about to make a major agreement.
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Wed Nov 25, 2020 10:47 am
by Bird on a Fire
They always just sound exasperated, like they've had to explain this 1000 times already in 1000 different ways.
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Wed Nov 25, 2020 12:24 pm
by Woodchopper
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Wed Nov 25, 2020 10:47 am
They always just sound exasperated, like they've had to explain this 1000 times already in 1000 different ways.
They just haven't realized yet that we hold all the cards.
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Wed Nov 25, 2020 12:29 pm
by lpm
They just haven't realized yet how good our innovative jams are.
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Wed Nov 25, 2020 12:31 pm
by Bird on a Fire
Woodchopper wrote: ↑Wed Nov 25, 2020 12:24 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Wed Nov 25, 2020 10:47 am
They always just sound exasperated, like they've had to explain this 1000 times already in 1000 different ways.
They just haven't realized yet that we hold all the cards.
I'm not an expert on card games or anything, but is holding cards enough to win? I thought you had to play them correctly as well.
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Wed Nov 25, 2020 1:32 pm
by Woodchopper
Report that Barnier has told Frost that he won’t travel to London at the weekend for talks unless there's movement on the outstanding issues.
https://www.lesechos.fr/monde/europe/br ... ue-1268128
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Wed Nov 25, 2020 1:38 pm
by Little waster
Woodchopper wrote: ↑Wed Nov 25, 2020 9:43 am
However, there are still three issues that can make the difference between a deal & no-deal.”
Let me guess:-
1. State Aid
2. Northern Ireland
3. Fishy-fishies
In much the same way that, although I've made significant progress, there are still three issues in me becoming the 2020 National BMX Champion of Finland namely:-
1. I'm not Finnish
2. I can't ride a bike
3. I haven't entered.
... but other than it is pretty much nailed on.
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Wed Nov 25, 2020 1:39 pm
by headshot
Woodchopper wrote: ↑Wed Nov 25, 2020 12:24 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Wed Nov 25, 2020 10:47 am
They always just sound exasperated, like they've had to explain this 1000 times already in 1000 different ways.
They just haven't realized yet that we hold all the cards.
Or they've tried explaining that Mr Bun the Baker, a birthday card, an out of date NUS card, Blockbuster video card and a joker doesn't make a straight flush, and David Frost is still bluffing.
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Wed Nov 25, 2020 2:00 pm
by Woodchopper
Little waster wrote: ↑Wed Nov 25, 2020 1:38 pm
Woodchopper wrote: ↑Wed Nov 25, 2020 9:43 am
However, there are still three issues that can make the difference between a deal & no-deal.”
Let me guess:-
1. State Aid
2. Northern Ireland
3. Fishy-fishies
Almost, Level playing field, governance and fish. The former is much wider than state aid. More here:
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/stat ... 59232?s=21
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Wed Nov 25, 2020 4:56 pm
by Bird on a Fire
People keep saying that "neither side will want to look like they gave up on negotiations", but that's pretty much what this looks like.
"Change the record or I'm not coming to your party," says Michel "Boogey" Barnier.
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Wed Nov 25, 2020 5:23 pm
by plodder
It’s just mood music. Looks like they will have to fudge all three areas. I’m guessing fishing is easiest with a temporary arrangement, the others will need some clever wordplay to describe whatever halfway house they agree. I’ll still be really surprised if it’s No Deal.
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Thu Nov 26, 2020 7:27 am
by Woodchopper
Taking back control ...
London’s dominance of the multi-trillion dollar global derivatives market is at risk after a regulator said on Wednesday banks in the EU will have to use trading platforms within the bloc after the completion of Brexit on Dec. 31.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-brit ... KKBN2850SR
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Thu Nov 26, 2020 7:33 am
by Woodchopper
plodder wrote: ↑Wed Nov 25, 2020 5:23 pm
It’s just mood music. Looks like they will have to fudge all three areas. I’m guessing fishing is easiest with a temporary arrangement, the others will need some clever wordplay to describe whatever halfway house they agree. I’ll still be really surprised if it’s No Deal.
I hope so. Problem is that on the level playing field and governance there appears to be very little common ground.
What’s changed is the Internal Market Bill. It’s destroyed what trust there was and so the EU27 want commitments to be stated explicitly and clear procedures if the UK reneges. There isn’t much room for fudge and ambiguity.
The problem is that Johnson sees himself as Churchill whereas he thinks that if he agrees to what the EU want he’ll be portrayed as a Chamberlain.
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Thu Nov 26, 2020 10:26 am
by Martin Y
Woodchopper wrote: ↑Thu Nov 26, 2020 7:33 am
The problem is that Johnson sees himself as Churchill whereas he thinks that if he agrees to what the EU want he’ll be portrayed as a Chamberlain.
The problem is the Nazis. They turned out so off-the-scale evil that
in hindsight they made Churchill right to fight on when doing a deal was the logical option for Britain. Now British people see everything through that lens, intoxicated with the idea that stubborn defiance is noble and any compromise is weak and foolish (and some even assume the EU will turn out to be super-evil villains).
The
"men will still say: this was their finest hour" speech turned out to be true, but it's a bit of a millstone.
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Thu Nov 26, 2020 12:40 pm
by bmforre
Woodchopper wrote: ↑Thu Nov 26, 2020 7:33 am
The problem is that Johnson sees himself as Churchill whereas he thinks that if he agrees to what the EU want he’ll be portrayed as a Chamberlain.
If Johnson cannot distinguish von der Leyen from Hitler I do question the quality of his education.
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Thu Nov 26, 2020 12:47 pm
by Woodchopper
bmforre wrote: ↑Thu Nov 26, 2020 12:40 pm
Woodchopper wrote: ↑Thu Nov 26, 2020 7:33 am
The problem is that Johnson sees himself as Churchill whereas he thinks that if he agrees to what the EU want he’ll be portrayed as a Chamberlain.
If Johnson cannot distinguish von der Leyen from Hitler I do question the quality of his education.
Of course, symbolically rather than literally.
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Thu Nov 26, 2020 2:54 pm
by dyqik
bmforre wrote: ↑Thu Nov 26, 2020 12:40 pm
Woodchopper wrote: ↑Thu Nov 26, 2020 7:33 am
The problem is that Johnson sees himself as Churchill whereas he thinks that if he agrees to what the EU want he’ll be portrayed as a Chamberlain.
If Johnson cannot distinguish von der Leyen from Hitler I do question the quality of his education.
I think Johnson has made a more fundamental error in identifying which current leader is going against international norms to threaten freedom in Europe in support of Nationalist ideological purity.
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 5:45 pm
by Woodchopper
Farmers in England face losing at least half of the subsidies they receive under the EU system by 2024 under post-Brexit transition plans to be unveiled on Monday by the UK government.
Ministers plan to cut so-called basic payments, which were the main source of funding under the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy, by a minimum of 50 per cent in four years’ time, according to documents seen by the Financial Times and two people briefed on the matter.
https://www.ft.com/content/62bf13df-195 ... 1c80ffffd1
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 9:32 pm
by Woodchopper
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 9:48 pm
by Woodchopper
Gloomy assessment by the excellent Peter Foster
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/13 ... 89737?s=21
tl;dr the UK still wants what the EU isn’t going to give
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 11:04 pm
by Bird on a Fire
About -
Gestures to indicate a length by holding two index fingers approximately a metre apart - this far?
Yeah, just yesterday it was. No, nobody else saw, I had the whole place to myself.
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Sun Nov 29, 2020 2:52 pm
by plodder
Good thread on the latest on the fishing negotiations:
https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/ ... 9570370569
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Sun Nov 29, 2020 4:36 pm
by Opti
Yeah, but sovrinty, blue passports, it's the principal* innit.
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Sun Nov 29, 2020 7:19 pm
by Woodchopper
True though. If it were all just about the economics then Brexit wouldn’t have happened.
Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:11 am
by Woodchopper
December is tomorrow, and the last day of transition is December the 31st. At about the end of this week we run out of the time bought by the EU Parliament's willingness to have a special ratification session at the end of December. After that it would require provisional ratification of parts of a deal by the EU Council pending ratification later. But doing so would require a lot of goodwill. It would also get very complicated if a member state objected
On the positive side, it looks like neither side wants to be the ones who stop the negotiations.