Getting Brexit done

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discovolante
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by discovolante » Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:15 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:08 pm
jdc wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 8:22 pm


If foreign students aren't taking places that should go to British students, aren't receiving free tuition so aren't costing the taxpayer money, and are paying their fees to universities rather than Boris and his friends... then how are Boris's cronies profiting mightily at the expense of the average person by allowing universities to take foreign students? I'm sure Boris's cronies thoroughly enjoy profiting mightily at the expense of the average person (I know I do), I'm just not seeing how they're managing to do so in this instance.

btw, if you're generally in favour of foreign students, it's a bit odd that you've managed to raise what looks like a series of spurious complaints about them.
I don't know if I am in favour of foreign students or not. Emotionally I feel that they are a good idea, but if Boris Johnson is in favour, then there must be something else going on.
What are you on about? What do you think is going on?
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jdc
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by jdc » Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:52 pm

discovolante wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:15 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:08 pm
jdc wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 8:22 pm


If foreign students aren't taking places that should go to British students, aren't receiving free tuition so aren't costing the taxpayer money, and are paying their fees to universities rather than Boris and his friends... then how are Boris's cronies profiting mightily at the expense of the average person by allowing universities to take foreign students? I'm sure Boris's cronies thoroughly enjoy profiting mightily at the expense of the average person (I know I do), I'm just not seeing how they're managing to do so in this instance.

btw, if you're generally in favour of foreign students, it's a bit odd that you've managed to raise what looks like a series of spurious complaints about them.
I don't know if I am in favour of foreign students or not. Emotionally I feel that they are a good idea, but if Boris Johnson is in favour, then there must be something else going on.
What are you on about? What do you think is going on?
Something else.

Honestly Disco, how much clearer do you want them to be?

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by secret squirrel » Sun Dec 15, 2019 3:00 am

Surely one 'thing' that is going on with foreign students is that universities make quite a lot of money from them, and the government can use this as an excuse to fund universities less. We know that there's a school of thought that wants universities to be fully private businesses run for profit. The other thing that economically-conservative-people-who-aren't-particularly-racist like about it is that it's a good way to siphon off smart hard working people from other countries, for the benefit of the domestic economy.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Allo V Psycho » Sun Dec 15, 2019 9:09 am

Herainestold wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:08 pm
jdc wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 8:22 pm


If foreign students aren't taking places that should go to British students, aren't receiving free tuition so aren't costing the taxpayer money, and are paying their fees to universities rather than Boris and his friends... then how are Boris's cronies profiting mightily at the expense of the average person by allowing universities to take foreign students? I'm sure Boris's cronies thoroughly enjoy profiting mightily at the expense of the average person (I know I do), I'm just not seeing how they're managing to do so in this instance.

btw, if you're generally in favour of foreign students, it's a bit odd that you've managed to raise what looks like a series of spurious complaints about them.
I don't know if I am in favour of foreign students or not. Emotionally I feel that they are a good idea, but if Boris Johnson is in favour, then there must be something else going on.
My foreign students pay over £39,000 p.a. A proportion of this goes immediately and directly to the NHS. In a few years time, there will be hundreds of extra NHS doctors, trained in the UK, at essentially no cost to the UK Government. The presence of these and other foreign students, in a highly deprived area, where they rent property, buy clothes, food and leisure activities, is huge. In fact, the University appears to be the sole engine of economic regeneration in a declining area, but that engine is very powerful, transforming a declining town and replacing derelict areas with new buildings and facilities. The knock on benefits to building and trade must be enormous.

edit p.s. the area voted for Brexit

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Sciolus
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Sciolus » Sun Dec 15, 2019 9:28 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:29 pm
On the speed of negotiations. As we saw in October they could be fast so long as Johnson gives the EU everything it asks for.

They’ll slow down as soon as Johnson decides to actually negotiate.
This. How long the negotiations take depends on how many of May's red lines Johnson drops. Since he got his current deal in super-quick time by dropping the "united UK" red line, and successfully selling as him being a brilliant negotiator and not as him giving in, that's very possible. If he accepts FOM, a deal could be done by January (OK, that one won't happen). Accept alignment on environmental, employment and a couple of other regs, and maybe pay a bit onto the pot, it could be done by the end of 2020. My hunch is that's what will happen, and he'll face down the "take back control" crowd.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Imrael » Sun Dec 15, 2019 10:04 am

Accept alignment on environmental, employment and a couple of other regs, and maybe pay a bit onto the pot, it could be done by the end of 2020. My hunch is that's what will happen, and he'll face down the "take back control" crowd.
I hope your right (given where we are now) but my hunch is the opposite - that he'll cave to the ERG entryists and alt-right backroom influencers and go WTO (with very small pluses) almost immediately hoping to muddle through on hasty US and other trade deals. I dont see much evidence that he personally is a coherent long term planner, so the question is who's plan gets his ear.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Sun Dec 15, 2019 10:08 am

I think we'll see from what happens to Cummings.

Johnson doesn't need anybody any more. If Cummings is out then maybe he'll soften, if he remains then it's a hard Brexit.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by lpm » Sun Dec 15, 2019 10:47 am

Nobody is emotionally invested in the trade deal, just the 31 Jan "Brexit". I doubt the negotiations will make the news because they're tedious and the country is sick of talking about it. There'll be plenty of room for Johnson to sign up to anything, nobody will give a sh.t except extremists.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by jimbob » Sun Dec 15, 2019 9:30 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun Dec 15, 2019 10:47 am
Nobody is emotionally invested in the trade deal, just the 31 Jan "Brexit". I doubt the negotiations will make the news because they're tedious and the country is sick of talking about it. There'll be plenty of room for Johnson to sign up to anything, nobody will give a sh.t except extremists.
The same could have been said about Trump.

I still think Johnson could easily decide it's too difficult and would diminish his adulation/ be boring. Or he could decide to go full on.

I wouldn't be sure even he knows.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Mon Dec 16, 2019 12:51 pm

What will the makeup of the European Parliament be without the UK there to f.ck things up?
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Martin Y » Mon Dec 16, 2019 1:25 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Mon Dec 16, 2019 12:51 pm
What will the makeup of the European Parliament be without the UK there to f.ck things up?
I have little doubt that role will easily be filled.

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TAFKAsoveda
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by TAFKAsoveda » Tue Dec 17, 2019 10:46 am

It's ok, it will be illegal to extend the withdrawal agreement which means we now hold none of the cards and have to cave to all EU demands.
That's why Mr Johnson's team have announced that isn't it?

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by PeteB » Tue Dec 17, 2019 11:53 am

lpm wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:49 pm
Has PeteB reached our forum?
Yes :-) Not that I am an expert in any of this stuff

Bit busy with work at the minute, but a couple of things

1) Services
In 2017 services accounted for 45 per cent of total UK exports, or £277 billion. The EU received 40 per cent of British services exports, the highest proportion of any UK trading partner. Unlike goods, where it runs a deficit, the UK ran a total trade surplus in services of £112 billion.
2) Trade Deals are very different to the Single Market - they may abolish quotas and tariffs but there is still a load of non tariff barriers that are much more important than tariffs. Also to qualify for zero tariffs you have to prove Rules of Origin for all the components of your product, which may be so difficult it is easier just to pay the tariff.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by TopBadger » Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:25 pm

TAFKAsoveda wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 10:46 am
It's ok, it will be illegal to extend the withdrawal agreement which means we now hold none of the cards and have to cave to all EU demands.
That's why Mr Johnson's team have announced that isn't it?
Perhaps... that's one option certainly. Cave in to everything so quickly no-one gets the opportunity to point it out and we leave and nothing gets much worse and hope no-one notices we're a rule taker. If they do, tell them that's what they voted for.

Or assuming the desire is a no deal - then he can blame the EU for trying to slow us down which we won't do and therefore we crash out.

If anything I see the negotiation phase as needing longer than the withdrawal phase - and that's taken over 3 years. So this looks like brinksmanship, trying to put the EU and the Hoc under time pressure to agree a deal such that they can't scrutinise too much - it won't work though. Even if the HoC doesn't want to take it's time then the EU will.
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Gentleman Jim
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Gentleman Jim » Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:25 pm

Brexit with no deal?
WTO rules?
Car industry would be well f.cked
Oh look how they voted :roll:
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by dyqik » Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:47 pm

There are no WTO rules anymore. Or at least, there's no way of enforcing them.

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Gentleman Jim
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Gentleman Jim » Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:52 pm

dyqik wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:47 pm
There are no WTO rules anymore. Or at least, there's no way of enforcing them.

True - so we are even more f.cked?
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by veravista » Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:41 pm

It's almost as if nobody had thought of this*. Have they done a similar one about Aerospace yet?

*Apart from me banging on about it in the 'other' place ad nauseam

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Little waster » Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:46 pm

veravista wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:41 pm
It's almost as if nobody had thought of this*. Have they done a similar one about Aerospace yet?

*Apart from me banging on about it in the 'other' place ad nauseam
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:59 pm

My sister has said she'll lose her job at a manufacturing consultancy next month. Her company has Siemens as their main client, who will move all Irish work to Ireland, and move all manufacturing here to the continent, because they don't know what tariffs will look like.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Little waster » Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:07 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:59 pm
My sister has said she'll lose her job at a manufacturing consultancy next month. Her company has Siemens as their main client, who will move all Irish work to Ireland, and move all manufacturing here to the continent, because they don't know what tariffs will look like.
Just tell her "Blue passports!" and that'll cheer her up.
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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Dec 17, 2019 7:12 pm

secret squirrel wrote:
Sun Dec 15, 2019 3:00 am
Surely one 'thing' that is going on with foreign students is that universities make quite a lot of money from them, and the government can use this as an excuse to fund universities less. We know that there's a school of thought that wants universities to be fully private businesses run for profit. The other thing that economically-conservative-people-who-aren't-particularly-racist like about it is that it's a good way to siphon off smart hard working people from other countries, for the benefit of the domestic economy.
Yeah this. Foreign students are effectively subsidising UK students. What Johnson and his ilk like is that they enable UK universities to function at a higher level than they would otherwise manage were they dependent solely on UK students and their government-subsidised debt. They're basically a cash cow.

Don't have a link to hand, but it's already the case that they have to leave after graduating unless they find a job within a few months.

The UK is weird in that it recently (during May's stint at the home office, I think) started counting foreign students as immigrants, which most countries don't as they're on a temporary visa etc.
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by veravista » Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:32 pm

Not only that, they were being counted every time they came in, but not necessarily on the way out. Good way of counting 3 immigrants for every one student. No wonder we had so many..

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by jimbob » Tue Dec 17, 2019 9:57 pm

Also, in my area of high tech manufacturing and development foreign postdocs are pretty important.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Tue Dec 17, 2019 10:00 pm

Today I had to have a conversation with the Italian PhD I hired in which he expressed his fears about Brexit, about his right to stay in the UK and his wish to do so even if he is allowed. Depending on how levels of intolerance go over the next twelve months I might lose a f.cking brilliant member of my team because of c.nts.

I mean, for f.cking f.ck's sake. The fact that I even have to have this conversation is a f.cking outrage.
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