Scrutable

Martin Y wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:11 am

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 10:39 am

The article is hysterical drivel.

Reassure us that stuff will all be fixed by December.
Tell us Top Men are working on it.

I don't think Philip Green should be let within 200 nautical miles of this ship.

The claim that leaving the EU has any significant impact on services, IBM given as an example, is untrue.

The author of the article cannot cite a single specific example of any regulation which be believes will hamper trade in services after we leave.

This is a clumsy scare story with no substance.

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:06 pm

The claim that leaving the EU has any significant impact on services, IBM given as an example, is untrue.

The author of the article cannot cite a single specific example of any regulation which be believes will hamper trade in services after we leave.

This is a clumsy scare story with no substance.

it’s not really focused on services though, they’re only mentioned briefly. Dunt is almost entirely talking about goods here.

plodder wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 2:07 pm

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:06 pm

The claim that leaving the EU has any significant impact on services, IBM given as an example, is untrue.

The author of the article cannot cite a single specific example of any regulation which be believes will hamper trade in services after we leave.

This is a clumsy scare story with no substance.

it’s not really focused on services though, they’re only mentioned briefly. Dunt is almost entirely talking about goods here.

Then Dunt will need to spend some time studying how non-EU goods already enter the EU.

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 10:39 am

plodder wrote: ↑

Sat Jan 25, 2020 6:39 pm

Gfamily wrote: ↑

Sat Jan 25, 2020 2:21 pm

What happens next - analysis by Ian Dunt
https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2020/0 ... son-s-trad

Wow.

The article is hysterical drivel. The writing style is breathlessly adolescent.

I look forward to reading your deconstruction of it.

JQH wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:39 pm

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 10:39 am

plodder wrote: ↑

Sat Jan 25, 2020 6:39 pm

Wow.

The article is hysterical drivel. The writing style is breathlessly adolescent.

I look forward to reading your deconstruction of it.

There are very few claims in the article specific enough to engage with, if you parse it carefully you'll note that yourself. The piece is composed entirely of appeals to personal incredulity. It's clumsy fear-spreading propaganda whose only effect is to reassure and rally a dwindling band of people whose opinion on this matter is increasingly irrelevant.

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 2:34 pm

This is a clumsy scare story with no substance. … Dunt will need to spend some time studying how non-EU goods already enter the EU.

He mentioned the oft-quoted example of cars with components sourced from multiple countries and manufactured in a number of process stages in several countries. Are you saying that similar production chains exist where manufactured goods make multiple moves in and out of the EU as easily as they can between EU members? That would certainly reassure a lot of people in the car industry.

Martin Y wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 6:01 pm

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 2:34 pm

This is a clumsy scare story with no substance. … Dunt will need to spend some time studying how non-EU goods already enter the EU.

He mentioned the oft-quoted example of cars with components sourced from multiple countries and manufactured in a number of process stages in several countries. Are you saying that similar production chains exist where manufactured goods make multiple moves in and out of the EU as easily as they can between EU members? That would certainly reassure a lot of people in the car industry.

Yeah. It's not like adding extra costs to your supply chain would affect the viability of your existing business.

Not so much cost, but time.

plodder wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:01 pm

Not so much cost, but time.

Extra time adds extra cost, and doing the extra paperwork isn't free either.

It's not a good article, is it? It'd have been better if it was written with the input of experts such as

David Bailey, professor of Business Economics at the Birmingham Business School

Meredith Crowley, international trade economist at the University of Cambridge

Piet Eeckhout, EU law professor and dean at the UCL Faculty of Laws

Andrew Kuyk, policy lead at the UK Seafood Industry Alliance

Philip McCann, professor of Urban and Regional Economics at Sheffield University Management School

Thomas Sampson, assistant professor in the Department of Economics at the LSE

Uta Staiger, executive director of the UCL European Institute

...and others in London and Brussels who chose not to be named.

rather than some random pricks on the internet

bjn wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:13 pm

plodder wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:01 pm

Not so much cost, but time.

Extra time adds extra cost, and doing the extra paperwork isn't free either.

And when you are talking about modern supply chains for, say automotive customers, it's the security of timely supply that is even more important.

A linestop situation is *very* costly, so if you're an automotive component manufacturer in the EU and have a choice of a UK or an EU supplier - do you choose to primarily buy from somewhere with what would be an indeterminate customs border regime and unknown delays in ports, or do you chose suppliers where this is not an issue.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:16 pm

It's not a good article, is it? It'd have been better if it was written with the input of experts such as

David Bailey, professor of Business Economics at the Birmingham Business School

Meredith Crowley, international trade economist at the University of Cambridge

Piet Eeckhout, EU law professor and dean at the UCL Faculty of Laws

Andrew Kuyk, policy lead at the UK Seafood Industry Alliance

Philip McCann, professor of Urban and Regional Economics at Sheffield University Management School

Thomas Sampson, assistant professor in the Department of Economics at the LSE

Uta Staiger, executive director of the UCL European Institute

...and others in London and Brussels who chose not to be named.

Any political position can find industry lobbyists and academics-for-rent to support it. The non-predictions in this bit of whiney journalism are no different.

Martin Y wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 6:01 pm

He mentioned the oft-quoted example of cars with components sourced from multiple countries and manufactured in a number of process stages in several countries. Are you saying that similar production chains exist where manufactured goods make multiple moves in and out of the EU as easily as they can between EU members? That would certainly reassure a lot of people in the car industry.

Electronic goods use non-EU produced components and materials all the time.

Toyota Auris production line stoppage at Burnaston costs just over £1,000,000 an hour. If it stops the Avensis line that's a bit more expensive. That's the reason they source most components from multiple sources, a few from the UK but mostly EU.

Also the reason they have an oven ready replica plant in Portugal

veravista wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:09 pm

Toyota Auris production line stoppage at Burnaston costs just over £1,000,000 an hour. If it stops the Avensis line that's a bit more expensive. That's the reason they source most components from multiple sources, a few from the UK but mostly EU.

Also the reason they have an oven ready replica plant in Portugal

The plant in Portugal will face stiff tariffs to get its parts into a Toyota driven by UK consumers if the EU doesnt do a deal.

We'll be the only major European country that's able to charge tariffs on vehicles made by significantly cheaper labour in Eastern Europe if that is the game. This is not a game Germany is interested in playing.

The price of cars will go up if they try any funny business?

Just means we'll have to import Toyotas, with tariffs. And Mini's, Nissans, Hondas and Vauxhalls. Ah well.

Still, some good news. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pressco ... /IP_20_113

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:16 pm

veravista wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:09 pm

Toyota Auris production line stoppage at Burnaston costs just over £1,000,000 an hour. If it stops the Avensis line that's a bit more expensive. That's the reason they source most components from multiple sources, a few from the UK but mostly EU.

Also the reason they have an oven ready replica plant in Portugal

The plant in Portugal will face stiff tariffs to get its parts into a Toyota driven by UK consumers if the EU doesnt do a deal.

We'll be the only major European country that's able to charge tariffs on vehicles made by significantly cheaper labour in Eastern Europe if that is the game. This is not a game Germany is interested in playing.

Where did Veravista or I talk about tariffs? Oh yes, I did to specifically say that they weren't the main problem.

It's everything else that makes up a frictionless trading environment, where friction, especially unpredictable friction like unpredictable customs delays that cause the risk of linestop situations.

jimbob wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:30 pm

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:16 pm

veravista wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:09 pm

Toyota Auris production line stoppage at Burnaston costs just over £1,000,000 an hour. If it stops the Avensis line that's a bit more expensive. That's the reason they source most components from multiple sources, a few from the UK but mostly EU.

Also the reason they have an oven ready replica plant in Portugal

The plant in Portugal will face stiff tariffs to get its parts into a Toyota driven by UK consumers if the EU doesnt do a deal.

We'll be the only major European country that's able to charge tariffs on vehicles made by significantly cheaper labour in Eastern Europe if that is the game. This is not a game Germany is interested in playing.

Where did Veravista or I talk about tariffs? Oh yes, I did to specifically say that they weren't the main problem.

It's everything else that makes up a frictionless trading environment, where friction, especially unpredictable friction like unpredictable customs delays that cause the risk of linestop situations.

I dont think my point came across clearly; we can impose tariffs quite easily if the EU is difficult and conjours up spurious parts compliance issues where one would expect mutual recognition. It's the default position for anybody who doesnt have a trade deal with us. We are a significant market for EU-made cars. They know this.

Soo, Toyota will keep their Burnaston plant running so as not to upset the UK despite not knowing whether or not the next Auris will cost them £3000 to build or £2,003,000? Makes sense. Or they could just make them with an already seamless supply chain within the EU, cutting out the UK, and export them to us where we. the consumers may or may not have to pay tariffs?

Makes sense to me

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:20 pm

Martin Y wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 6:01 pm

He mentioned the oft-quoted example of cars with components sourced from multiple countries and manufactured in a number of process stages in several countries. Are you saying that similar production chains exist where manufactured goods make multiple moves in and out of the EU as easily as they can between EU members? That would certainly reassure a lot of people in the car industry.

Electronic goods use non-EU produced components and materials all the time.

Certainly. I recognise that the EU imports stuff. I take it you couldn't think of an example of a production process which moves in and out of the EU like UK car production does.

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:06 pm

The claim that leaving the EU has any significant impact on services, IBM given as an example, is untrue.

The author of the article cannot cite a single specific example of any regulation which be believes will hamper trade in services after we leave.

This is a clumsy scare story with no substance.

"Services" is not just someone sitting in London doing some writing and e-mailing the results to Germany. It relies on movement of people. Look at the percentage of the workers in UK software businesses who are EU nationals. IT has a high turnover rate, so these people will need to be replaced by other workers who might also want to bring in their partners or small children. Until now they could do that with EU rules, where the answer was basically "yes", especially since the UK didn't even enforce the minimal "support yourself" requirements; but after Brexit the list of rules will be designed to keep the Tory heartlands happy, which will mean more hoops than a lot of people are willing to jump through. Of course, the UK could sign a free trade deal with India and give a couple of hundred thousand visas to IT workers from there... that would definitely go down well with the people who voted for Brexit because of people speaking Polish on the bus.

Your answer combines ignorance about how many IT workers already come from Russia, India &the Ukraine with a projection about what your imaginary brexit voter boogeymen will think about (a thing thats already happened). Too silly.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:16 pm

It's not a good article, is it? It'd have been better if it was written with the input of experts such as

David Bailey, professor of Business Economics at the Birmingham Business School

Meredith Crowley, international trade economist at the University of Cambridge

Piet Eeckhout, EU law professor and dean at the UCL Faculty of Laws

Andrew Kuyk, policy lead at the UK Seafood Industry Alliance

Philip McCann, professor of Urban and Regional Economics at Sheffield University Management School

Thomas Sampson, assistant professor in the Department of Economics at the LSE

Uta Staiger, executive director of the UCL European Institute

...and others in London and Brussels who chose not to be named.

rather than some random pricks on the internet

Bah. We’ve had enough of experts. What do they know that some random on the internet with an agenda doesn’t know better?