Scrutable

If you want to go straight to the source for deposition transcripts, video of open hearings, etc., the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence is here:

https://intelligence.house.gov/

Is he going to be impeached? Or is he going to get away with it?

mikeh wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:20 pm

Is he going to be impeached? Or is he going to get away with it?

He'll be impeached, but he may still get away with it. Impeachment is just the indictment for a trial in the Senate.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:27 pm

mikeh wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:20 pm

Is he going to be impeached? Or is he going to get away with it?

He'll be impeached, but he may still get away with it. Impeachment is just the indictment for a trial in the Senate.

But during the trial the Senate has all sort of powers to request documents and testimonies, I think? Which could be very, very funny even if it does end with a depressingly predictable miscarriage of justice.

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:59 pm

dyqik wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:27 pm

mikeh wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:20 pm

Is he going to be impeached? Or is he going to get away with it?

He'll be impeached, but he may still get away with it. Impeachment is just the indictment for a trial in the Senate.

But during the trial the Senate has all sort of powers to request documents and testimonies, I think? Which could be very, very funny even if it does end with a depressingly predictable miscarriage of justice.

Controlled by Mitch McConnell, but presided over by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.

Something made me think of

Stinky’s ... hobbies include eavesdropping, vandalism and duping the police. Stinky is very proud of his reputation as a crook and will go to any lengths to maintain it. Due to his pranks, people don’t tend to invite Stinky to parties or to join in with other activities, but he shows up uninvited anyway.

Stinky is a little simple and thinks only about himself. Stinky will steal anything, but he prefers valuable objects. Although he causes a lot of trouble, the Moomin family find it rather charming that they know a real rogue.

Unfortunately he is going to get away with it.

The Republicans will not impeach him because it would hurt them.

He will be impeached by the house, but probably not convicted by the senate. I suspect that the main thing that can come from they process is that there are enough negative headlines to make sure that he isn't elected a second time. I'm not holding my breath on that though.

It's a straightforward story - relatively.

But can they present it clearly enough via multiple witnesses and a large cast of characters? And does the public want to hear about Ukraine?

Schiff gave a nice opening summary. And now Taylor is showing the stakes - Ukraine soldiers died. This is easy to understand?

"Extorted a vulnerable ally for his own personal gain" is the whole story - so I'm very glad they are showing the vulnerability first, before showing the extortion.

That's good storytelling.

And they can pivot to "And the main benefactor from this vulnerability is Russia" later if necessary as well.

It makes Watergate - a local affair - seem trivial. Take a step back and it's utterly amazing.

Mamil wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:55 am

He will be impeached by the house, but probably not convicted by the senate. I suspect that the main thing that can come from they process is that there are enough negative headlines to make sure that he isn't elected a second time. I'm not holding my breath on that though.

I have lost sufficient faith in the American public*. If Trump is around to have a crack at being re-elected, it'll be pretty close, when it should of course be (at the very most) his own family voting for him, and no one else (possibly also a few young 'uns having a jolly good laugh and jolly jape time).

* If Trump was in charge of the Tories, he'd probably still get elected here too.

mikeh wrote: ↑

Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:07 pm

Mamil wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:55 am

He will be impeached by the house, but probably not convicted by the senate. I suspect that the main thing that can come from they process is that there are enough negative headlines to make sure that he isn't elected a second time. I'm not holding my breath on that though.

I have lost sufficient faith in the American public*. If Trump is around to have a crack at being re-elected, it'll be pretty close, when it should of course be (at the very most) his own family voting for him, and no one else (possibly also a few young 'uns having a jolly good laugh and jolly jape time).

* If Trump was in charge of the Tories, he'd probably still get elected here too.

If Trump isn't convicted then I think that makes him more rather than less likely to win a second term - his lack of conviction will be held up as proof that he didn't do anything wrong and if anything it strengthens his defences to Democrat lines of attack.

Will the Republicans act in the interest of themselves or their country during this trial? I think we know the answer to that... it's depressing and the evidence is overwhelming but he's likely to get away with it.

TopBadger wrote: ↑

Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:37 am

mikeh wrote: ↑

Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:07 pm

Mamil wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:55 am

He will be impeached by the house, but probably not convicted by the senate. I suspect that the main thing that can come from they process is that there are enough negative headlines to make sure that he isn't elected a second time. I'm not holding my breath on that though.

I have lost sufficient faith in the American public*. If Trump is around to have a crack at being re-elected, it'll be pretty close, when it should of course be (at the very most) his own family voting for him, and no one else (possibly also a few young 'uns having a jolly good laugh and jolly jape time).

* If Trump was in charge of the Tories, he'd probably still get elected here too.

If Trump isn't convicted then I think that makes him more rather than less likely to win a second term - his lack of conviction will be held up as proof that he didn't do anything wrong and if anything it strengthens his defences to Democrat lines of attack.

I'm not convinced the math for this conclusion is that simple. Trump can avoid conviction due to votes by 34 GOP Senators, representing about 20% of the country, and maybe 25% of the Electoral College.

He can quite easily have the votes to avoid conviction, with those votes being supported by the GE electorate in the home states of those Senators, and lose the popular vote by 20%, and the Electoral College by 100 or so.

Obviously votes change as a result of the votes in the Senate trial, but a lot of independents will view that as a partisan exercise and turn on the GOP because of that. And they already are.

But will they bother to vote? Or will they do the all-american thing of sitting on their arses and then whining about it? It's the American way!

tom p wrote: ↑

Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:58 pm

But will they bother to vote? Or will they do the all-american thing of sitting on their arses and then whining about it? It's the American way!

I'm usually referring to registered or likely voters in polls, I tend to be a carefully about the all adults polls.

If Trump was a normal president, his re-election at this point in the economic cycle should be a more or less foregone conclusion. Unemployment is low and the economy seems to be doing well and I suspect that this makes the odds on him winning are probably greater than on him losing. I also think that there is a strong message around his corruption and incompetence in government that a Democratic nominee could use to unseat him and, because of that, that the odds of him losing are shorter than they should be.

The latest "transcript" shows no extortion attempt by Trump, therefore it's conclusive proof he never attempted any extortion ever.

It does, however, show Trump praising the quality of Ukrainian "representatives" to Miss Universe.

lpm wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 15, 2019 4:04 pm

The latest "transcript" shows no extortion attempt by Trump, therefore it's conclusive proof he never attempted any extortion ever.

It does, however, show Trump praising the quality of Ukrainian "representatives" to Miss Universe.

It also doesn't show any concern from Trump about corruption in Ukraine. Which is odd, because he was supposedly very concerned about that.

Astonishing. Trump tweets a derisory and intimidating tweet about Yovanovitch *as she is testifying* only for Adam Schiff to print it out and distribute it, presumably as evidence, and ask Yovanovitch about it’s effect. I think we’ve just seen a new impeachment charge added in real time.

"What's the latest count for obstructions of justice?"

"300,457,422... No, wait. 300,457,423."

Oh no! Poor Roger Stone!

How can anyone possibly think he lied?????

Up to 50 years eh?

I notice Trump had just turned it into "well, what about Hillary etc....?"

One of the principal reasons for Clinton losing the election wasn't so much that trump swayed enough voters, but that Clinton's base was depressed from voting and trump's was enthused.

Something to watch with the next election will be whether the democrab candidate gets people motivated and whether trump does so again - I'm not convinced he will, to be honest. Watching the "will not vote" or "don't know" columns could be as important as the other numbers next time.