The war in the middle east thread.

[Herainestold]

Two theories of history, conspiracy and cock up.

So do you think the US was responsible for this one?

I haven't seen anybody saying that yet.

[Little waster]

Will he carry out this threat now? Or will he have forgotten he made it - one advantage of his dementia - and nobody in the military reminds him.

He will go after the cultural sites. They are undefended.

Many cultural sites (mosques, old temples, old habitations, etc) do have a military presence. Islam has sects (mainly Sunni & Shiite, but some others) and some extreme groups from one or the other side do occasionally target cultural sites, as otherwise soft targets; hence the positioning of some (not usually many) soldiers around them as a deterrent.

But this means that if the US does attack cultural sites, they can be more easily counted as an attack on the military.

Lest we forget

[dyqik]

Quote of the day so far, from a Dem member of Congress reacting to Iran’s limited strikes: “You need two crazy leaders to start a war, and fortunately, Iran doesn’t have one.”

[Herainestold]

Now the Americans are claiming Iran shot down the Ukraine plane filled with Iranian passengers. By accident, I presume.

[Martin Y]

Now the Americans are claiming Iran shot down the Ukraine plane filled with Iranian passengers. By accident, I presume.

Well, as mentioned upthread, it wouldn't be the first time a civilian airliner got shot down in error. On the other hand, a flight which just left the capital city's main international airport shouldn't take even an alert and nervous military by surprise.

As the flight took off just after 6am I wondered if it was the first flight of the day. This was just hours after the Iranians had fired missiles at a US airbase in Iraq; someone may have been a bit too alert for a reprisal attack. On the other hand, Wikipedia is saying the plane's departure was delayed by about an hour, which rather hints that other flights may well have taken off before it. (Unless of course military operations were the reason it was delayed.)

[shpalman]

Now the Americans are claiming Iran shot down the Ukraine plane filled with Iranian passengers. By accident, I presume.

Well, as mentioned upthread, it wouldn't be the first time a civilian airliner got shot down in error. On the other hand, a flight which just left the capital city's main international airport shouldn't take even an alert and nervous military by surprise.

As the flight took off just after 6am I wondered if it was the first flight of the day. This was just hours after the Iranians had fired missiles at a US airbase in Iraq; someone may have been a bit too alert for a reprisal attack. On the other hand, Wikipedia is saying the plane's departure was delayed by about an hour, which rather hints that other flights may well have taken off before it. (Unless of course military operations were the reason it was delayed.)

Even the Guardian is reporting it: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ls-believe

UK sources told the Guardian that British officials had seen intelligence that suggested that the plane was hit by an Iranian air defence missile.

[Martin Y]

Reuters has:

According to satellite data, one U.S. official said, the Ukrainian International Airlines Boeing 737-800 bound for Kiev was airborne for two minutes after departing Tehran when the heat signatures of two surface-to-air missiles were detected.

That was quickly followed by an explosion in the vicinity of the plane, the official said. Heat signature data then showed the plane on fire as it went down.

[TimW]

Is there some sort of rota for shooting down airliners?

Not in chronological order:
US shot down an Iranian airliner
Iran (maybe) shot down a Ukrainian one
Ukraine shot down a Russian one
Russia shot down a Malaysian one

[plodder]

Photos of debris from what appears to be an anti aircraft missile are floating around, difficult to independently geolocate and verify though

https://mobile.twitter.com/EliotHiggins ... 8595121152

[Martin Y]

Is there some sort of rota for shooting down airliners?

Not in chronological order:
US shot down an Iranian airliner
Iran (maybe) shot down a Ukrainian one
Ukraine shot down a Russian one
Russia shot down a Malaysian one

When did Ukraine shoot down a Russian one?

<edit> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_A ... light_1812 2001. I had forgotten about that.

[TimW]

Of course I couldn't actually answer that off the top of my head, but it turns out to have been 2001.

[Martin Y]

Of course I couldn't actually answer that off the top of my head, but it turns out to have been 2001.

Yeah, I recall now but I had forgotten it happened. During joint Russian-Ukrainian military exercises too. Changed days.

The US reckon (and Putin denied) the missile failed to self destruct after another missile had already hit and destroyed its drone target, that it then locked onto the airliner instead and flew 160 miles before hitting it.

[plodder]

Well, this missile appears to have been fired from an Iranian suburb.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/20 ... an-suburb/

[Herainestold]

Its looking more and more like it was an Iranian missile that downed the plane.

Really the blame has to be on Trump for initiating this current round of tit for tat violence. If the Americans hadn't assassinated Solemaini, those 176 people would still be alive. It really is a war crime and Trump should be indicted at the Hague. Don't count on it.

[plodder]

no, but thanks for your input.

[Herainestold]

Iran admits they shot down plane.

https://twitter.com/HassanRouhani/statu ... 9997984768

Armed Forces’ internal investigation has concluded that regrettably missiles fired due to human error caused the horrific crash of the Ukrainian plane & death of 176 innocent people.
Investigations continue to identify & prosecute this great tragedy & unforgivable mistake.

[JQH]

Iran admits they shot down plane.

https://twitter.com/HassanRouhani/statu ... 9997984768

Armed Forces’ internal investigation has concluded that regrettably missiles fired due to human error caused the horrific crash of the Ukrainian plane & death of 176 innocent people.
Investigations continue to identify & prosecute this great tragedy & unforgivable mistake.

If I were the officer who gave the "fire" order I think I'd withdraw to my quarters with a loaded revolver.

[Herainestold]

What awaits America:

Iran propaganda video imagines revenge.

https://twitter.com/Doranimated/status/ ... 3204334592

Mike
@Doranimated
Iran’s latest propaganda video is a doozy. The Qods Force blows up the Capitol dome, captures the White House, and kills Donald Trump — to avenge Qassem Soleimani.

[Pucksoppet]

Iran admits they shot down plane.

https://twitter.com/HassanRouhani/statu ... 9997984768

Armed Forces’ internal investigation has concluded that regrettably missiles fired due to human error caused the horrific crash of the Ukrainian plane & death of 176 innocent people.
Investigations continue to identify & prosecute this great tragedy & unforgivable mistake.

If I were the officer who gave the "fire" order I think I'd withdraw to my quarters with a loaded revolver.

If your process's success depends on individual humans not making occasional mistakes, your process is not fit for purpose. People can deliberately choose not to follow a process (See Chernobyl), but unless malicious intent can be demonstrated, I would not be looking to punish someone who made a mistake. While some might say the person who pushed the launch button should not have, and therefore it is their 'fault', I would say that the process that accidentally allows an armed SAM (or maybe several) to be launched against a civil airliner following a filed flight plan has quite some deficiencies (the same applies to the USS Vincennes incident).
Rather than encouraging officers to commit suicide, we should try and encourage more people like flotilla commodore Vasili Alexandrovich Arkhipov and Lt Col Stanislav Petrov.

[jimbob]

Iran admits they shot down plane.

https://twitter.com/HassanRouhani/statu ... 9997984768

If I were the officer who gave the "fire" order I think I'd withdraw to my quarters with a loaded revolver.

If your process's success depends on individual humans not making occasional mistakes, your process is not fit for purpose. People can deliberately choose not to follow a process (See Chernobyl), but unless malicious intent can be demonstrated, I would not be looking to punish someone who made a mistake. While some might say the person who pushed the launch button should not have, and therefore it is their 'fault', I would say that the process that accidentally allows an armed SAM (or maybe several) to be launched against a civil airliner following a filed flight plan has quite some deficiencies (the same applies to the USS Vincennes incident).
Rather than encouraging officers to commit suicide, we should try and encourage more people like flotilla commodore Vasili Alexandrovich Arkhipov and Lt Col Stanislav Petrov.

Yes but you are not the ruler of an autocratic theocracy - at least as far as I know.

Punishing mistakes rather than fixing systems are common to dictatorships.

[Gfamily]

I was interested to hear the Behind the Bastards podcast on Qasem Soleimani
Lots of history of Iran/US relations.
https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/how-st ... e/66399995