Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Discussions about serious topics, for serious people
Pedantica
Gray Pubic
Posts: 15
Joined: Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:42 pm

Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by Pedantica » Sat Jan 04, 2020 11:26 pm

So lots of people have views on Dominic Cummings. I thought it was interesting to see what he actually says himself. I only found two lectures but both are interesting I think.

It's interesting how much of the first lecture includes ideas I expect this community agrees with. Despite the fact that on the whole it's on a very different part of the political spectrum. For example the need for evidence based policy and greater use of scientific methods in government and policy making.

The second lecture is just a huge challenge I think for those of us who like to think we're influencing the political conversation by sharing our opinions with other people in our social circles.

Thoughts on the Civil Service (2014)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNaWPV5l4j4

Why leave won the referendum (2017)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDbRxH9Kiy4

sheldrake
After Pie
Posts: 1819
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by sheldrake » Sat Jan 04, 2020 11:37 pm

He is most often known for things he thinks metropolitan centre-left/liberals are wrong about, but I've also heard him express real misgivings about things he thinks the political right is in denial about. Undeserved high pay in the private sector being the main one I remember. I think it's mentioned in one of the speeches above.

Pedantica
Gray Pubic
Posts: 15
Joined: Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:42 pm

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by Pedantica » Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:07 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 11:37 pm
He is most often known for things he thinks metropolitan centre-left/liberals are wrong about, but I've also heard him express real misgivings about things he thinks the political right is in denial about. Undeserved high pay in the private sector being the main one I remember. I think it's mentioned in one of the speeches above.
It's mentioned in both of them with slightly different examples. Will be interesting to see if Johnson listens.

User avatar
Little waster
After Pie
Posts: 2385
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:35 am
Location: About 1 inch behind my eyes

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by Little waster » Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:38 pm

Pedantica wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 11:26 pm
For example the need for evidence based policy and greater use of scientific methods in government and policy making.
The issue was following the intervention of the CHF of our former parish, Cummings concluded that this was best accomplished by having a couple copies of Science and Nature lying around on the coffee tables in the common room of the DoE.

Similarly when the CHF was pushing hard for the use of RCTs in assessing the impact of changes in policy Cummings response was to say “that’s a great idea” but it simply could not be done in terms of education policy (!) and anyway it wasn’t needed as he already KNEW what they were implementing was already the best possible policy regardless of what the educational research actually said.

Cummings support for the scientific method has never noticeably risen above cargo-cultism.
This place is not a place of honor, no highly esteemed deed is commemorated here, nothing valued is here.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.

User avatar
GeenDienst
Dorkwood
Posts: 1093
Joined: Wed Nov 13, 2019 10:10 am

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by GeenDienst » Sun Jan 05, 2020 3:22 pm

I read a longish article from Goldacre on RCTs in education policy once, and nowhere did it address the issue of gaining informed consent prior to the trial. Perhaps the question is not if it can be done, but if it can be done ethically.

Disclaimer: nothing in this post makes Cummings not a c.nt.
Just tell 'em I'm broke and don't come round here no more.

User avatar
Little waster
After Pie
Posts: 2385
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:35 am
Location: About 1 inch behind my eyes

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by Little waster » Sun Jan 05, 2020 4:51 pm

GeenDienst wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 3:22 pm
I read a longish article from Goldacre on RCTs in education policy once, and nowhere did it address the issue of gaining informed consent prior to the trial. Perhaps the question is not if it can be done, but if it can be done ethically.

Disclaimer: nothing in this post makes Cummings not a c.nt.
How does that work on a population level intervention (that may not be the correct phrase)?

If I wanted to test say whether dropping the motorway speed limit to 55mph saved lives ideally I would run a trial where one section of motorway trialled the new speed limit and compare it to an equivalent section where the limit stayed the same. There would be no suggestion of getting the informed consent of the drivers affected.

Similarly if a school wanted to trial synthetic phonics or free school breakfasts or banning energy drinks or whatever to see if it improved student performance, would informed consent be required? The only difference with doing that and upgrading to a formalised RCT is you would need to identify an appropriate control arm to compare it with.
This place is not a place of honor, no highly esteemed deed is commemorated here, nothing valued is here.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.

sheldrake
After Pie
Posts: 1819
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by sheldrake » Sun Jan 05, 2020 5:51 pm

Little waster wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 4:51 pm

If I wanted to test say whether dropping the motorway speed limit to 55mph saved lives ideally I would run a trial where one section of motorway trialled the new speed limit and compare it to an equivalent section where the limit stayed the same. There would be no suggestion of getting the informed consent of the drivers affected.

Similarly if a school wanted to trial synthetic phonics or free school breakfasts or banning energy drinks or whatever to see if it improved student performance, would informed consent be required?


Yes. If you try to experiment on my children with a methodology for teaching reading that I don't agree with I will be very f.cking annoyed and possibly try to move them to a school in the other experiment arm, or go private if I'm in the 5%.

purplehaze
Fuzzable
Posts: 286
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:27 pm

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by purplehaze » Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:20 pm

Leave won the referendum because of money: to give a lecture on this and not acknowledge it is dishonest.

Cummings is an adviser to the Prime Minister, previously Michael Gove (he's certainly being passed around). The first link has poor sound quality and I find it hard to listen to so his words, his 'own' words, are lost to me somewhat. Cummings has the dandruff charisma off Ian Duncan Smith.

purplehaze
Fuzzable
Posts: 286
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:27 pm

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by purplehaze » Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:27 pm

To add:

I've just joined the Labour Party.

I had to give a reason why I was joining from a drop down menu. I clicked 'other' because I did want to give a reason other, one of the five being: 'Let's kick the Tories out of Downing Street.'

A performing bear could last ten years at least in Downing Street with that kind of opposition.

Oh, wait.

Pedantica
Gray Pubic
Posts: 15
Joined: Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:42 pm

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by Pedantica » Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:54 pm

purplehaze wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:20 pm
Leave won the referendum because of money: to give a lecture on this and not acknowledge it is dishonest.

Cummings is an adviser to the Prime Minister, previously Michael Gove (he's certainly being passed around). The first link has poor sound quality and I find it hard to listen to so his words, his 'own' words, are lost to me somewhat.
Sounds quality is good. Apart from the first 15 seconds when someone without a mic is talking in the background. Its worth a listen.

User avatar
Gfamily
Light of Blast
Posts: 5180
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:00 pm
Location: NW England

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by Gfamily » Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:56 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 5:51 pm
Yes. If you try to experiment on my children with a methodology for teaching reading that I don't agree with I will be very f.cking annoyed and possibly try to move them to a school in the other experiment arm, or go private if I'm in the 5%.
On what basis would you determine whether or not you 'agreed' with the approach? Your intuition?
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

sheldrake
After Pie
Posts: 1819
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by sheldrake » Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:16 pm

purplehaze wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:20 pm
Leave won the referendum because of money: to give a lecture on this and not acknowledge it is dishonest.
That is delusional. Remain massively out-spent leave, including use of public funds to leaflet every voter in the UK to tell them to vote remain.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news ... 78588.html
https://capx.co/remain-not-leave-had-an ... eferendum/
https://facts4eu.org/news/2019_jan_remain_advertising
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/151 ... eferendum/
Last edited by sheldrake on Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

sheldrake
After Pie
Posts: 1819
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by sheldrake » Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:18 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:56 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 5:51 pm
Yes. If you try to experiment on my children with a methodology for teaching reading that I don't agree with I will be very f.cking annoyed and possibly try to move them to a school in the other experiment arm, or go private if I'm in the 5%.
On what basis would you determine whether or not you 'agreed' with the approach? Your intuition?
Almost certainly, like most of the rest of the population. 'But let me experiment on your kids with this new thing, trust me I'm more logical than you'.

If you don't understand why that message would be perceived as repellent, you probably shouldn't be on any scientific ethics committees.

User avatar
Gfamily
Light of Blast
Posts: 5180
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:00 pm
Location: NW England

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by Gfamily » Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:25 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:18 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:56 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 5:51 pm
Yes. If you try to experiment on my children with a methodology for teaching reading that I don't agree with I will be very f.cking annoyed and possibly try to move them to a school in the other experiment arm, or go private if I'm in the 5%.
On what basis would you determine whether or not you 'agreed' with the approach? Your intuition?
Almost certainly, like most of the rest of the population. 'But let me experiment on your kids with this new thing, trust me I'm more logical than you'.

If you don't understand why that message would be perceived as repellent, you probably shouldn't be on any scientific ethics committees.
Like I said before, it's like talking to a f.cking idiot.
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

sheldrake
After Pie
Posts: 1819
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by sheldrake » Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:37 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:25 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:18 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:56 pm

On what basis would you determine whether or not you 'agreed' with the approach? Your intuition?
Almost certainly, like most of the rest of the population. 'But let me experiment on your kids with this new thing, trust me I'm more logical than you'.

If you don't understand why that message would be perceived as repellent, you probably shouldn't be on any scientific ethics committees.
Like I said before, it's like talking to a f.cking idiot.
Not at all. I'm trying to explain to you why you need to ask consent before experimenting on people's children. The fact that they may be wrong or unscientific in their opinions doesn't alter this. They're not machines you have a right to optimise for their own good by dint of your superior education. That's not how democracies work.

It's more likely that your difficulty understanding/accepting this is related to the hard time you had with the 'emotional discrimination' questions in the 'Intelligence' thread.

User avatar
Gfamily
Light of Blast
Posts: 5180
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:00 pm
Location: NW England

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by Gfamily » Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:41 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:37 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:25 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:18 pm


Almost certainly, like most of the rest of the population. 'But let me experiment on your kids with this new thing, trust me I'm more logical than you'.

If you don't understand why that message would be perceived as repellent, you probably shouldn't be on any scientific ethics committees.
Like I said before, it's like talking to a f.cking idiot.
Not at all. I'm trying to explain to you why you need to ask consent before experimenting on people's children. The fact that they may be wrong or unscientific in their opinions doesn't alter this. They're not machines you have a right to optimise for their own good by dint of your superior education. That's not how democracies work.
How on earth do you think any current teaching approaches have been worked out ?
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

sheldrake
After Pie
Posts: 1819
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by sheldrake » Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:43 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:41 pm

How on earth do you think any current teaching approaches have been worked out ?
I think you've missed the point here. You're trying to explain what is 'correct'. I'm explaining to you why doing that without people's consent is problematic. Dominc Cummings likely does understand the ethical and political ramifications of doing what you're suggesting.

User avatar
Gfamily
Light of Blast
Posts: 5180
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:00 pm
Location: NW England

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by Gfamily » Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:47 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:43 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:41 pm

How on earth do you think any current teaching approaches have been worked out ?
I think you've missed the point here. You're trying to explain what is 'correct'. I'm explaining to you why doing that without people's consent is problematic. Dominc Cummings likely does understand the ethical and political ramifications of doing what you're suggesting.
Don't put words in my mouth.
Answer the question I asked.
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

sheldrake
After Pie
Posts: 1819
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by sheldrake » Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:52 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:47 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:43 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:41 pm

How on earth do you think any current teaching approaches have been worked out ?
I think you've missed the point here. You're trying to explain what is 'correct'. I'm explaining to you why doing that without people's consent is problematic. Dominc Cummings likely does understand the ethical and political ramifications of doing what you're suggesting.
Don't put words in my mouth.
Answer the question I asked.
I'm not putting words in your mouth, I'm explaining to you why you've missed the point. There's no variation on 'but we do experiments anyway and always have' or 'RCT would be the best method here' which changes that. Your question, and the answer to it, are irrelevant.

User avatar
Gfamily
Light of Blast
Posts: 5180
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:00 pm
Location: NW England

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by Gfamily » Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:56 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:52 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:47 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:43 pm


I think you've missed the point here. You're trying to explain what is 'correct'. I'm explaining to you why doing that without people's consent is problematic. Dominc Cummings likely does understand the ethical and political ramifications of doing what you're suggesting.
Don't put words in my mouth.
Answer the question I asked.
I'm not putting words in your mouth, I'm explaining to you why you've missed the point. There's no variation on 'but we do experiments anyway and always have' or 'RCT would be the best method here' which changes that.
Nope, I get the feeling you're babbling now. Try explaining yourself better.
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

sheldrake
After Pie
Posts: 1819
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by sheldrake » Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:59 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:56 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:52 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:47 pm

Don't put words in my mouth.
Answer the question I asked.
I'm not putting words in your mouth, I'm explaining to you why you've missed the point. There's no variation on 'but we do experiments anyway and always have' or 'RCT would be the best method here' which changes that.
Nope, I get the feeling you're babbling now. Try explaining yourself better.
I've been very clear. You've overfocussed on the question of the correct application of scientific method without considering the ethical or political ramificantions of experimenting on people's children without discussing it with them first. Dominic Cummings understands this. He probably wouldn't struggle as much as you on the 'understanding emotions' bit of that test.

User avatar
Opti
Dorkwood
Posts: 1473
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:21 pm
Location: On the beach

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by Opti » Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:28 pm

aaaaaahh f.ck. My first ignore. Should have done it earlier. Stupid old Grampsie Opti.
Time for a big fat one.

User avatar
bjn
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2915
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:58 pm
Location: London

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by bjn » Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:36 pm

Opti wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:28 pm
aaaaaahh f.ck. My first ignore. Should have done it earlier. Stupid old Grampsie Opti.
Beat you to it by a week or so.

User avatar
Gfamily
Light of Blast
Posts: 5180
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:00 pm
Location: NW England

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by Gfamily » Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:47 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:59 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:56 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:52 pm


I'm not putting words in your mouth, I'm explaining to you why you've missed the point. There's no variation on 'but we do experiments anyway and always have' or 'RCT would be the best method here' which changes that.
Nope, I get the feeling you're babbling now. Try explaining yourself better.
I've been very clear. You've overfocussed on the question of the correct application of scientific method without considering the ethical or political ramificantions of experimenting on people's children without discussing it with them first. Dominic Cummings understands this. He probably wouldn't struggle as much as you on the 'understanding emotions' bit of that test.
No, but seriously, rather than trying to divert the topic, how about answering the question. How on earth do you think any current teaching approaches have been worked out?
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

sheldrake
After Pie
Posts: 1819
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by sheldrake » Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:52 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:47 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:59 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:56 pm

Nope, I get the feeling you're babbling now. Try explaining yourself better.
I've been very clear. You've overfocussed on the question of the correct application of scientific method without considering the ethical or political ramificantions of experimenting on people's children without discussing it with them first. Dominic Cummings understands this. He probably wouldn't struggle as much as you on the 'understanding emotions' bit of that test.
No, but seriously, rather than trying to divert the topic, how about answering the question. How on earth do you think any current teaching approaches have been worked out?
Some of our current teaching approaches have existed for decades, having been inherited from unscientific received wisdom/trial and error without scientific controls. Some methods will have been based on research that was conducted with best scientific practice, and some of them will come from research that suffers from methodological problems (like much social science). Different schools will use different methods in many cases.

I am not diverting the topic, because we're only having this discussion because you expressed surprise that you might be required to seek consent to conduct RCT of teaching methods. I don't think your question is relevant here.

Post Reply