Dominic Cummings - In his own words

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Gfamily
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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by Gfamily » Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:29 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:19 pm
Voucher schemes and parental choice would be a great help to the poor here.
[citation needed]
Specifically, the empirical research on small-scale programs does not suggest that awarding students a voucher
is a systematically reliable way to improve educational outcomes, and some detrimental effects have been found.
[citation]
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by sheldrake » Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:35 pm

Its working fine in Sweden and it works fine for the rich who fund their own vouchers.

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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by Gfamily » Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:40 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:19 pm
Voucher schemes and parental choice would be a great help to the poor here.
Is that the Volvo driving poor?

f.cking idiot!
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by Little waster » Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:37 am

sheldrake wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:19 pm

The tories won a majority in 2015 after 5 years of coalition and 4 years of Gove in charge of education.
Serious question, do you genuinely believe that in any way represents an individual parents informed consent over specific educational interventions?

Furthermore that manifesto provided zero details over any specific educational policy other than a vague aspiration to increase mandarin provision and some platitudes over SPAG and “rigour” representing only 4 paragraphs from an 84-page document.

The Tories themselves gained 37% of the votes on an only 66% turnout. Voters in 2015 ranked education only third in their list of policy importance with only 23% rating the Tory education policy the best, a 8% loss to Labour, meaning not even every Tory voter thought the Tories education policies were a good idea but voted for them for other reasons, like every other general election ever.

A less than 1-in-4 approval rating doesn’t anywhere near equate to “very popular”.
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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by sheldrake » Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:40 am

Gfamily wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:40 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:19 pm
Voucher schemes and parental choice would be a great help to the poor here.
Is that the Volvo driving poor?

f.cking idiot!
Yes, the volvo driving poor.

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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by sheldrake » Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:43 am

Little waster wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:37 am
sheldrake wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:19 pm

The tories won a majority in 2015 after 5 years of coalition and 4 years of Gove in charge of education.
Serious question, do you genuinely believe that in any way represents an individual parents informed consent over specific educational interventions?
No, I think it represents a generalised approval for the previous 5 years of Tory govt. I dont think most people viewed Gove the way Labour voters and teaching unions did. A recurring theme on this board is that people struggle to understand their views represent a niche echo chamber. That's why you're continually blindsided on thinga like Brexit

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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by Little waster » Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:30 am

sheldrake wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:43 am
Little waster wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:37 am
sheldrake wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:19 pm

The tories won a majority in 2015 after 5 years of coalition and 4 years of Gove in charge of education.
Serious question, do you genuinely believe that in any way represents an individual parents informed consent over specific educational interventions?
No, I think it represents a generalised approval for the previous 5 years of Tory govt.
I know that's what you think but the numbers come nowhere near supporting your hunch.

I shouldn't even need to spell this out but the Conservatives won a plurality not a majority in 2015 (just like Labour in 97 and the "winning" party in almost every other UK GE in 2 centuries) and all even that indicates is a general support for the whole Tory policy offering rather than any explicit, specific support for any one policy or even policy area. The 2015 manifesto itself massively played down their own educational track record.

Drilling into the numbers puts specific voter approval for Tory educational policies down at 23%, meaning psephologically people were as often voting for the Tories DESPITE their educational policies as because. 77% disapproval is an overwhelming disapproval not "general approval" in anyone's book, the echo-chamber dweller is obvious here.


Returning to the OP. There is a certain irony that Cummings has put a call out for a ragtag bag of maverick physicist misfits to come to the rescue and shake up a complacent civil service with their sciencey superpowers, blue-sky thinking their out-of-the box-theories regarding Big Data analysis, blockchain and popular beat combos, to identify the black swans and shift the public policy paradigm and push the envelope on the solution phase space right at the bleeding edge of the risk/opportunity interface*.

Except of course one of the likeliest bits of paradigm-busting thinking they are liable to come up with is "Why don't we use the scientific method to trial new public policies in pilot studies to see if they actually work, and to iron-out unforeseen implementation issues, before we roll them out at great expense and disruption nationwide" an idea he has already categorically rejected on they basis they might give him answers he doesn't want.

For all his lip-service about the scientific method, Cummings has repeatedly indicated he doesn't believe it should apply to him and his gut instinct because ... well he can quote Sun Tzu, can't he.






*... and we have a call at the back for a full house on the management consultant b.llsh.t bingo. That's a full house, we'll have a check-through to see if they've won the set of steak knives.
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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by plodder » Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:40 am

I kinda agree but I also have the sense that Cummings is more zealous and focused that the kind of senior advisors we’re used to.

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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:25 am

Ken McKenzie wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:44 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:12 pm
Gove lasted 4 years in the post and was moved as part of a wide-ranging reshuffle based on the judgement of Cameron.
BING! You don't know the answer.

Here's a tip, sheldrake. This is the wrong forum to pretend to expertise you don't have.
Oh, I don't know about that, Ken. I've been doing it for years.
If truth is many-sided, mendacity is many-tongued

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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by sheldrake » Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:26 am

Little waster wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:30 am

I know that's what you think but the numbers come nowhere near supporting your hunch.

I shouldn't even need to spell this out but the Conservatives won a plurality not a majority in 2015 (just like Labour in 97 and the "winning" party in almost every other UK GE in 2 centuries) and all even that indicates is a general support for the whole Tory policy offering rather than any explicit, specific support for any one policy or even policy area. The 2015 manifesto itself massively played down their own educational track record.
The conservatives gained seats and won 2015 without needing a coalition.
Drilling into the numbers puts specific voter approval for Tory educational policies down at 23%, meaning psephologically people were as often voting for the Tories DESPITE their educational policies as because. 77% disapproval is an overwhelming disapproval not "general approval" in anyone's book, the echo-chamber dweller is obvious here.
If referenda and election results should have taught you anything by now it's that polls are generally worthless, especially when you try to interpret them so specifically.
Except of course one of the likeliest bits of paradigm-busting thinking they are liable to come up with is "Why don't we use the scientific method to trial new public policies in pilot studies to see if they actually work, and to iron-out unforeseen implementation issues, before we roll them out at great expense and disruption nationwide" an idea he has already categorically rejected on they basis they might give him answers he doesn't want.

For all his lip-service about the scientific method, Cummings has repeatedly indicated he doesn't believe it should apply to him and his gut instinct because ... well he can quote Sun Tzu, can't he.
Well that and the ethical/political issues he understands.

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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by Little waster » Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:48 am

sheldrake wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:26 am

The conservatives gained seats and won 2015 without needing a coalition.
See now you are just making yourself look silly.
Well that and the ethical/political issues he understands has demonstrably ignored.
So come on we are still waiting for you to square the circle in your argument.

If it is so unethical and undemocratic for some DoE technocrat to suggest running a pilot study on the effectiveness of Phonics in 10 schools then how is it ethical and democratic for a technocrat like Cummings to implement Phonics across all 33,000 state schools?
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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by cvb » Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:59 am

Little waster wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:48 am
sheldrake wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:26 am

The conservatives gained seats and won 2015 without needing a coalition.
See now you are just making yourself look silly.
Well that and the ethical/political issues he understands has demonstrably ignored.
So come on we are still waiting for you to square the circle in your argument.

If it is so unethical and undemocratic for some DoE technocrat to suggest running a pilot study on the effectiveness of Phonics in 10 schools then how is it ethical and democratic for a technocrat like Cummings to implement Phonics across all 33,000 state schools?
That's an easy one.

Obviously Sheldrake is not going to give you a meaningful answer.

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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by GeenDienst » Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:02 pm

Don't think actual proper mathematician Hannah Fry's article has been linked here:
Cummings’ Whitehall weirdos will need to understand people, not just numbers

And herein lies my concern. People are not planets or solar systems; there isn’t some secret underlying equation that, if we can only find it, holds the solution to all our problems. The real world is messy, full of uncertainty and impossible to predict. Applying maths to the real world requires much more than mathematicians. It requires people who understand human society and culture – people, in short, who actually understand people.
...
So, sure, bring on the mathematical geniuses, and make government more agile. Yet I can’t help but think that Cummings could probably do with spending a bit more time listening to the “drivel” of a few humanities graduates.
Just tell 'em I'm broke and don't come round here no more.

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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by sheldrake » Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:21 pm

Little waster wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:48 am
If it is so unethical and undemocratic for some DoE technocrat to suggest running a pilot study on the effectiveness of Phonics in 10 schools then how is it ethical and democratic for a technocrat like Cummings to implement Phonics across all 33,000 state schools?
I still don't think you're seeing the difference between 'is Cummings logically consistent/is this a scientifically valid approach' and 'how will the general public perceive this'. There are lots of logically inconsistent things the public will accept, and logically consistent things they don't like. Cummings has correctly judged the difference here.

One of the reasons he will get away with doing that for phonics is that a large swathe of the electorate over 45 will have been taught that way themselves so they'll be comfortable with it regardless of whether it's the best way. The other thing he's correctly understood is that people will likely react worse to children within the state system being treated differently as the result of an experiment than they will to a wholesale change of policy. He's expecting an irrational negative reaction to 'my children are being experimented on', and I think he's right in his expectation. You must learn to divorce this from whether or not those people are logically correct or not. He's a political advisor operating on a different set of criteria to a scientist.

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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by Little waster » Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:28 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:21 pm
Little waster wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:48 am
If it is so unethical and undemocratic for some DoE technocrat to suggest running a pilot study on the effectiveness of Phonics in 10 schools then how is it ethical and democratic for a technocrat like Cummings to implement Phonics across all 33,000 state schools?
I still don't think you're seeing the difference between 'is Cummings logically consistent/is this a scientifically valid approach' and 'how will the general public perceive this'. There are lots of logically inconsistent things the public will accept, and logically consistent things they don't like. Cummings has correctly judged the difference here.
Tell your doctor that he needs to look for any evidence of parathesia in the extremities, midline cervical tenderness, neck pain which may be referred to the shoulder or arm, headache, a reduced range of neck movements, muscular spasm, stiffness, deafness, dysphagia or nausea, fatigue, dizziness, memory loss, temporomandibular joint pain and tinnitus.

TBH I'm impressed the whole thing didn't flip on you, you must have really good tyres.
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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by sheldrake » Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:52 pm

Little waster wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:28 pm

Tell your doctor that he needs to look for any evidence of parathesia in the extremities, midline cervical tenderness, neck pain which may be referred to the shoulder or arm, headache, a reduced range of neck movements, muscular spasm, stiffness, deafness, dysphagia or nausea, fatigue, dizziness, memory loss, temporomandibular joint pain and tinnitus.

TBH I'm impressed the whole thing didn't flip on you, you must have really good tyres.
You're kind of proving my point here.

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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by Little waster » Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:20 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:52 pm
Little waster wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:28 pm

Tell your doctor that he needs to look for any evidence of parathesia in the extremities, midline cervical tenderness, neck pain which may be referred to the shoulder or arm, headache, a reduced range of neck movements, muscular spasm, stiffness, deafness, dysphagia or nausea, fatigue, dizziness, memory loss, temporomandibular joint pain and tinnitus.

TBH I'm impressed the whole thing didn't flip on you, you must have really good tyres.
You're kind of proving my point here.
Of course you are, I imagine everyone is extremely impressed by your performance here as they undoubtedly are on all the other threads you've deigned to school us all on.
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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by sheldrake » Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:27 pm

That sounds more like you need a hug than that you have a good argument.

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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by Pucksoppet » Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:36 pm

sheldrake - have you ever revised your opinions in the light of evidence against them? Can you give examples?

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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by Little waster » Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:49 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:27 pm
That sounds more like you need a hug than that you have a good argument.
Yes that's exactly whats happening here, I'm sure the other Scrutes will read your comeback and appreciate exactly how awesome you really are.
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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by sheldrake » Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:50 pm

Pucksoppet wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:36 pm
sheldrake - have you ever revised your opinions in the light of evidence against them? Can you give examples?
Yes, I've changed my mind about tax rates and the role of state intervention over the years. My opinions on brexit and a host of other politicized issues just fall outside of the consensus here. I fully realise that a lot of people here believe they arrived at their opinions through a process of clear reasoning from solid evidence, but that's essentially a conceit and a self-delusion, which is why the board so often forms consensus around things that turn out to be wrong.

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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by Gentleman Jim » Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:55 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:50 pm
which is why the board so often forms consensus around things that turn out to be wrong.

Examples? :roll:
Rules are for the guidance of wise men and the obedience of fools.

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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by sheldrake » Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:02 pm

Gentleman Jim wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:55 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:50 pm
which is why the board so often forms consensus around things that turn out to be wrong.

Examples? :roll:
Brexit outcomes to date.

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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by Gentleman Jim » Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:15 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:02 pm
Gentleman Jim wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:55 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:50 pm
which is why the board so often forms consensus around things that turn out to be wrong.

Examples? :roll:
Brexit outcomes to date.
Impossible to say for certain since we haven't actually left yet
Rules are for the guidance of wise men and the obedience of fools.

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Re: Dominic Cummings - In his own words

Post by sheldrake » Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:16 pm

Gentleman Jim wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:15 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:02 pm
Gentleman Jim wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:55 pm



Examples? :roll:
Brexit outcomes to date.
Impossible to say for certain since we haven't actually left yet
Irrelevant, loads of predictions made in the old forum about brexit was about to result in already fell flat.

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