Democratic Candidate 2020

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lpm
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Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by lpm » Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:22 pm

And now Cory Booker is out. That's all my favourites gone.

Five realistic candidates left.

Joe Biden is far, far to old.
Bernie Sanders has multiple skeleton closets and might not win
Elizabeth Warren is amazing
Pete Buttigieg will fizzle once it moves to non-white states
Amy Klobuchar is OK but I can't stand people who bully their employees

The two billionaires are dominating the TV commercials, but f.ck 'em.

I'm sad about Kamala Harris, Julian Castro, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand and Beto O'Rourke.

Iowa on 3 Feb, just three weeks away.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Fishnut » Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:48 pm

That's a shame but not surprising as he never seemed to have a chance. I've listened to some interviews with him and he came across really well.

Bernie Sanders reminds me too much of Corbyn - fanatically loyal fanbase, but doesn't have much appeal outside that. Also the decades of being the "outsider" without much to show for it. The fact Joe Biden is in such strong contention really baffles me. He's like your slightly doddery, slightly offensive granddad. How he polls best with African Americans is beyond me. Pete Buttigieg could be a great candidate but he just seems too polished and rehearsed, and lacks any real experience. I know that Trump did too but that' s no reason to put another untested candidate up against him. I don't know that much about Amy Klobuchar apart from the bullying accusations. Elizabeth Warren is my favourite candidate - she's got the experience, she's got the gravitas and she is all about anti-corruption, a perfect contrast to Trump. I also think she's the best one to go up against him in the debates. The thought of Biden or Buttigieg going up against Trump makes me cringe. And I don't know what Sanders can say that will win over new supporters.

It is frustrating how the candidates to drop out are the ones from BAME backgrounds. I just hope that whoever gets the nomination actually wins. The thought of 4 more years of Trump on top of everything else is just too much to deal with.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by dyqik » Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:49 pm

I personally won't be voting for a old white man in the primary, as a matter of policy, and also because all the old white man options are pretty awful.

And then I'll donate to whoever wins the nomination, not that it makes a lot of difference in Massachusetts.

That said, I'm mildly worried about what Massachusetts will do if Warren wins and her Senate seat opens up, particularly with a Republican governor who may be able to appoint a temporary replacement (although Baker is pretty RINO in modern terms). Although I think Joe Kennedy made a fairly good showing as a potential replacement in his quixotic attempt to primary Markey, and could will win the nomination and race for the Senate seat.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Martin_B » Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:06 am

Fishnut wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:48 pm
... Elizabeth Warren is my favourite candidate - she's got the experience, she's got the gravitas and she is all about anti-corruption, a perfect contrast to Trump. I also think she's the best one to go up against him in the debates. ...
However, will the Democratic party put up a female candidate twice in a row, and will the American electorate vote for a female? There were a lot of misogynistic comments regarding Hilary last time round, and many people claiming that they wouldn't vote for a woman; although there may be a considerable cross-over with people who may never vote Democrat anyway.

Warren may be a good debater against Trump, but Trump has a) the fake-native American claim, which he'll milk all year, and b) he'll start flinging mud and, as we've seen with the child-sex ring in the basement of a basement-less pizza shop, fling enough and some will stick. Warren's problem with combating the second issue, is that as soon as she starts to answer back, Trump then labels her as 'strident', which hits a female candidate harder than a male one (it *shouldn't*, but it does).

On the other hand, Biden and Sanders are old*, and Sanders isn't even a Democrat (officially he's an independent senator).

[* Although Biden, at 77, is 4 years older than Trump, he seems in better health. Sanders is 78 and had a heart attack. Warren is 70, but doesn't come across as anything like that age.]
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:09 pm

What worries me about Warren is that she's a former republican and self-professed lover of capitalism. At a time when corporate power needs dramatic restriction and the economy needs dramatic restructuring, both within the USA and globally, I worry that Warren would take a kind of Obama-lite super-conciliatory approach, with a bunch of interesting-sounding but limited "reforms" that are nothing of the sort, as they leave the underlying system intact and will thus be easily circumvented, watered down or repealed over time.

Sanders has consistently been on the right side of just about every social issue in the states throughout his career, which is reassuring. Americans would undoubtedly benefit from European-style healthcare and a write-off of unsustainable debt-serfdom and the world would benefit from a less aggressive, possibly even genuinely constructive, foreign policy.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by dyqik » Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:41 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:09 pm
What worries me about Warren is that she's a former republican and self-professed lover of capitalism. At a time when corporate power needs dramatic restriction and the economy needs dramatic restructuring, both within the USA and globally, I worry that Warren would take a kind of Obama-lite super-conciliatory approach, with a bunch of interesting-sounding but limited "reforms" that are nothing of the sort, as they leave the underlying system intact and will thus be easily circumvented, watered down or repealed over time.

Sanders has consistently been on the right side of just about every social issue in the states throughout his career, which is reassuring. Americans would undoubtedly benefit from European-style healthcare and a write-off of unsustainable debt-serfdom and the world would benefit from a less aggressive, possibly even genuinely constructive, foreign policy.
I don't think Warren is a lover of capitalism in the way you think. She's been behind some of the biggest recent pushes to rein in laissez-faire capitalism, and has spent most of an academic legal career working to defend against the excesses of capitalism.

Her declaration was a defence against accusations that she's a communist. And she's very much not an Obama-lite, as she's well left of Obama. And you can just look at her website for details.

I suspect she'd have to compromise less than Sanders to get legislation done, because she can convince former colleagues in the Senate, rather than having to bully then as an outsider who has spent a career attacking them.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by lpm » Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:59 pm

I think you've led astray, somehow, BoaF. That's not the Warren I see.

Sanders is Corbyn: left wing, but exactly the wrong sort of left wing. Awful man, and his supporters are worse.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:15 pm

Fair enough. My evening's work will be to reassess both candidates.

Is it worth reassessing Biden too? ;)
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by secret squirrel » Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:18 pm

Counterpoint: Bernie Sanders is literally the only decent candidate in the field, as evidenced by the fact that the only decent Democratic congresspeople have backed him.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by dyqik » Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:20 pm

secret squirrel wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:18 pm
Counterpoint: Bernie Sanders is literally the only decent candidate in the field, as evidenced by the fact that the only decent Democratic congresspeople have backed him.
None of that is true.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by secret squirrel » Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:33 pm

dyqik wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:20 pm
secret squirrel wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:18 pm
Counterpoint: Bernie Sanders is literally the only decent candidate in the field, as evidenced by the fact that the only decent Democratic congresspeople have backed him.
None of that is true.
Sorry, from reading I assumed this thread was for making dogmatic unevidenced assertions.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by dyqik » Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:38 pm

secret squirrel wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:33 pm
dyqik wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:20 pm
secret squirrel wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:18 pm
Counterpoint: Bernie Sanders is literally the only decent candidate in the field, as evidenced by the fact that the only decent Democratic congresspeople have backed him.
None of that is true.
Sorry, from reading I assumed this thread was for making dogmatic unevidenced assertions.
Well, yes, but I replied to your dogmatic absolutist assertion with the same.

You should maybe at least try to base your opinions on what the candidates and Congressional representatives actually do and say if you want a nuanced engagement. Even if they are subjective opinions.

I don't believe that you are familiar with positions and records of all the individual Congressional representatives that have not endorsed Sanders.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by secret squirrel » Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:43 pm

For people who like more words:
Pro Bernie
Contra Warren

ETA: As far as I'm concerned these are the only candidates that matter.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by dyqik » Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:55 pm

secret squirrel wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:43 pm
For people who like more words:
Pro Bernie
Contra Warren

ETA: As far as I'm concerned these are the only candidates that matter.
The second fails as soon as it talks about a revolution and overthrowing the DNC leadership. Because that's a recipe for a Corbyn style failure and a completely neutered campaign.

DNC leadership is who will implement the president's program. Overthrowing them means a Corbyn style disaster, losing the presidential election in 48 states, and losing the House and Senate for a decade. If you do that, you will likely lose in Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Virgina. Remember that the President is not leader of the legislature, or the party, as they are in the UK.

It also means that you will have zero institutions on your side. That means complete resistance to your program throughout all arms of government.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by lpm » Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:32 pm

Martin_B wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:06 am
On the other hand, Biden and Sanders are old*, and Sanders isn't even a Democrat (officially he's an independent senator).

[* Although Biden, at 77, is 4 years older than Trump, he seems in better health. Sanders is 78 and had a heart attack. Warren is 70, but doesn't come across as anything like that age.]
Women are younger than men of the same age, if you know what I mean, by about 2 years of life remaining.

Age on inauguration day / Expected years life remaining per US actuarial tables

Sanders 79 / 8.9 years
Biden 78 / 9.4 years
Warren 71 / 15.8 years

Bernie Sanders has put out a laughable doctors letter on his health - well into the Trump doctor's letter territory. The chances of him dying in office are ridiculously high.

Joe Biden seems pretty fit, definitely good for his age. Not smoking or drinking makes a difference. But running for reelection for a second term aged 82-86? Can't be done.

Warren also seems healthy. She just has a routine thyroid thing, hypothyroidism or hyperthyroidism or hydrothyroidism, never can remember which is which, and takes the standard medication to balance up. A second term at 75-79 is not too absurd - a couple of years older than Reagan was.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by purplehaze » Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:15 pm

So. Hilary Clinton can't stand?

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by bolo » Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:21 pm

Why do you say that? She could if she wanted to.

ETA: It is rare for a losing presidential candidate to be renominated in a subsequent year. I believe the last time was Nixon, who lost to JFK in 1960, didn't run in 1964, but then ran, got the nomination, and won in 1968.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by dyqik » Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:42 pm

bolo wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:21 pm
Why do you say that? She could if she wanted to.

ETA: It is rare for a losing presidential candidate to be renominated in a subsequent year. I believe the last time was Nixon, who lost to JFK in 1960, didn't run in 1964, but then ran, got the nomination, and won in 1968.
Although we are past the filing deadlines in some states. Something that's pretty important for the Trump Impeachment thread as well. In particular, it's too late for anyone to file to primary Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, John Cornyn in Texas, Cindy Hyde-Smith, Tom Cotton, or Thom Tillis.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by jimbob » Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:49 pm

Fishnut wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:48 pm
That's a shame but not surprising as he never seemed to have a chance. I've listened to some interviews with him and he came across really well.

Bernie Sanders reminds me too much of Corbyn - fanatically loyal fanbase, but doesn't have much appeal outside that. Also the decades of being the "outsider" without much to show for it. The fact Joe Biden is in such strong contention really baffles me. He's like your slightly doddery, slightly offensive granddad. How he polls best with African Americans is beyond me. Pete Buttigieg could be a great candidate but he just seems too polished and rehearsed, and lacks any real experience. I know that Trump did too but that' s no reason to put another untested candidate up against him. I don't know that much about Amy Klobuchar apart from the bullying accusations. Elizabeth Warren is my favourite candidate - she's got the experience, she's got the gravitas and she is all about anti-corruption, a perfect contrast to Trump. I also think she's the best one to go up against him in the debates. The thought of Biden or Buttigieg going up against Trump makes me cringe. And I don't know what Sanders can say that will win over new supporters.

It is frustrating how the candidates to drop out are the ones from BAME backgrounds. I just hope that whoever gets the nomination actually wins. The thought of 4 more years of Trump on top of everything else is just too much to deal with.
I was in California at a university spinoff recently and over lunch was chatting with some of the engineers, who were all pretty anti Trump, and believed in both evolution and global warming.

I said pretty similar to you about Saunders, Biden, and Warren, and one of the guys who'd come from a conservative part of Maryland said that he thought Elizabeth Warren had been offensive about people's faith.

She was asked what she'd say to a person who said that their faith meant they believed that marriage was between one man and one woman.
Her reply was, "I'm going to assume it's a man, then I'd say, 'just marry one woman'"

One of the native (and quite stereotypical) Californians thought it was a good response - which I tend to agree with.

I doubt it would lose her any votes, but I guess it might rile some people enough to vote against her, but I'd imagine they'd be voting anyway. I'd could easily think it might work to her favour.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by bolo » Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:04 pm

dyqik wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:42 pm
bolo wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:21 pm
Why do you say that? She could if she wanted to.

ETA: It is rare for a losing presidential candidate to be renominated in a subsequent year. I believe the last time was Nixon, who lost to JFK in 1960, didn't run in 1964, but then ran, got the nomination, and won in 1968.
Although we are past the filing deadlines in some states. Something that's pretty important for the Trump Impeachment thread as well. In particular, it's too late for anyone to file to primary Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, John Cornyn in Texas, Cindy Hyde-Smith, Tom Cotton, or Thom Tillis.
Good point. Details here:
https://ballotpedia.org/Important_dates ... ntial_race
https://ballotpedia.org/State_and_feder ... s_for_2020
She could still get on general election ballots as an independent, though. Plenty of time for that. For what it's worth (which isn't much).

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by bolo » Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:25 pm

jimbob wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:49 pm
She was asked what she'd say to a person who said that their faith meant they believed that marriage was between one man and one woman.
Her reply was, "I'm going to assume it's a man, then I'd say, 'just marry one woman'"
Support for gay marriage is actually only slightly higher among women than among men. And there are still 25% of Democrats who don't support it. Data here:
https://www.pewforum.org/fact-sheet/cha ... -marriage/

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by dyqik » Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:34 pm

bolo wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:25 pm
jimbob wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:49 pm
She was asked what she'd say to a person who said that their faith meant they believed that marriage was between one man and one woman.
Her reply was, "I'm going to assume it's a man, then I'd say, 'just marry one woman'"
Support for gay marriage is actually only slightly higher among women than among men. And there are still 25% of Democrats who don't support it. Data here:
https://www.pewforum.org/fact-sheet/cha ... -marriage/
Although if that's "Registered Democrats", a fair chunk of them may well be people who have voted Republican (if at all) for the past decade or more and who exclusively watch Fox News.

However, it seems to be self-ID'd Democrats instead, which is a different matter (you need to watch out for that in US polls).

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Martin_B » Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:05 am

dyqik wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:38 pm
secret squirrel wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:33 pm
dyqik wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:20 pm


None of that is true.
Sorry, from reading I assumed this thread was for making dogmatic unevidenced assertions.
Well, yes, but I replied to your dogmatic absolutist assertion with the same.

You should maybe at least try to base your opinions on what the candidates and Congressional representatives actually do and say if you want a nuanced engagement. Even if they are subjective opinions.

I don't believe that you are familiar with positions and records of all the individual Congressional representatives that have not endorsed Sanders.
I'm not sure where secret squirrel is posting from, but from here in Australia we don't get to see that much of the nuance of American politics; we get (from a mainly right-wing press, albeit one who isn't particularly pro-Trump) the headlines if one of the Democratic crowd has done something particularly good or awful, an occasional soundbite from McConnell, but mainly the rant of the day from his Orangeness.

[A bit off-topic, but I'm reading a Tim Moore book where he drove across America in a Ford Model T, to try and experience life in the middle-America which voted so overwhelmingly for Trump. That has some interesting thoughts on why small-town America has such disdain for anything remotely Washington-DC-esque that a billionaire New Yorker will gain their vote even if they don't like him and he only pretends to listen to them.]
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by dyqik » Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:07 am

Martin_B wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:05 am
dyqik wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:38 pm
secret squirrel wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:33 pm


Sorry, from reading I assumed this thread was for making dogmatic unevidenced assertions.
Well, yes, but I replied to your dogmatic absolutist assertion with the same.

You should maybe at least try to base your opinions on what the candidates and Congressional representatives actually do and say if you want a nuanced engagement. Even if they are subjective opinions.

I don't believe that you are familiar with positions and records of all the individual Congressional representatives that have not endorsed Sanders.
I'm not sure where secret squirrel is posting from, but from here in Australia we don't get to see that much of the nuance of American politics; we get (from a mainly right-wing press, albeit one who isn't particularly pro-Trump) the headlines if one of the Democratic crowd has done something particularly good or awful, an occasional soundbite from McConnell, but mainly the rant of the day from his Orangeness.
Which is why you wouldn't be stupid enough to make an absolute declaration about every single Democratic representative...

I don't even know what my representative has been doing. But she was newly elected in 2018, so I doubt she's done much that fits secret squirrels narrative one way or another.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by secret squirrel » Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:43 am

Name one good person of congress who doesn't back Bernie Sanders.

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