Democratic Candidate 2020

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by dyqik » Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:58 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:22 am
When did American Samoa stop being great?!
When it voted for Bloomberg and Gabbard.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by bolo » Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:28 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:22 am
When did American Samoa stop being great?!
Good point. OK, the slogan can be American Samoa's Super! and they can sell ASS hats.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by dyqik » Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:50 am

bolo wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:28 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:22 am
When did American Samoa stop being great?!
Good point. OK, the slogan can be American Samoa's Super! and they can sell ASS hats.
Could get confusing if they go with Make American Samoa Super!

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:33 am

Some analysis of voting patterns

tl;dr young people were surprisingly meh about Sanders, African Americans are enthusiastic about Biden, Warren didn’t make much of a difference.
In state after state, there has been little evidence — at least outside California — that [Sanders] has generated higher turnout among young voters. And though he has promised to deliver record turnout, it may in fact be Mr. Biden who is accomplishing that, lifted by his strong support among black voters.

In no state did people younger than 30 account for more than 20 percent of the electorate, based on exit polls, and in most states they accounted for 15 percent or less.

Because so few young people voted, it did not matter that Mr. Sanders won them by huge margins, because Mr. Biden won the much more plentiful older voters.

In addition, while Mr. Sanders has succeeded in galvanizing Latino voters — he won them by about 27 percentage points over Mr. Biden in California — he has struggled to build support among black voters.

In Alabama, where black voters were half of the electorate, Mr. Sanders lost them by more than 60 points. He lost them by more than 50 points in Virginia, and by more than 40 points in Texas and North Carolina. In several states, he came in third among black voters, behind not only Mr. Biden but also Michael R. Bloomberg.

[...]

while backers of Mr. Sanders believe many of Ms. Warren’s supporters would have migrated to him, exit polls suggested that the shift would have been too small to change the outcome in key states.

Take college-educated white women: Ms. Warren’s strongest group and one of Mr. Sanders’s weakest. If Ms. Warren had dropped out, Mr. Sanders could have benefited twice as much as Mr. Biden among those voters, said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. But Maine would probably have been the only state to flip from Mr. Biden to Mr. Sanders as a result.

Mr. Biden would most likely still have won Texas, Minnesota and Massachusetts — just with somewhat smaller margins, according to Mr. Murray. Warren voters generally like Mr. Sanders, he said; “it’s just her support isn’t large enough that it would have split enough in his direction.”

In fact, based on exit polls, Mr. Bloomberg almost certainly siphoned more votes from Mr. Biden than Ms. Warren did from Mr. Sanders.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/us/p ... rnout.html

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:10 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:33 am
In no state did people younger than 30 account for more than 20 percent of the electorate, based on exit polls, and in most states they accounted for 15 percent or less
This is a very strange way of reporting turnout, if that was the intention - how many people are aged 18-30? About a fifth seems plausible to me, assuming a life expectancy of 80.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by dyqik » Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:07 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:10 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:33 am
In no state did people younger than 30 account for more than 20 percent of the electorate, based on exit polls, and in most states they accounted for 15 percent or less
This is a very strange way of reporting turnout, if that was the intention - how many people are aged 18-30? About a fifth seems plausible to me, assuming a life expectancy of 80.
US life expectancy is 78-81 (M/F) IIRC.

Per Wikipedia, 18-44 years is 34% of the US population, so 18-30 can't really be more than about 16% of the population. Some marketing figures suggest 16.5%. And not all of those will be citizens eligible to vote, possibly more than other age bands.

Add to that the usual difficulties for young people voting (not in the state at the time, not registered in their current address because they move around a lot, etc.), and I have no idea why you'd expect it to go above 15% anywhere.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:23 pm

dyqik wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:07 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:10 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:33 am
In no state did people younger than 30 account for more than 20 percent of the electorate, based on exit polls, and in most states they accounted for 15 percent or less
This is a very strange way of reporting turnout, if that was the intention - how many people are aged 18-30? About a fifth seems plausible to me, assuming a life expectancy of 80.
US life expectancy is 78-81 (M/F) IIRC.

Per Wikipedia, 18-44 years is 34% of the US population, so 18-30 can't really be more than about 16% of the population. Some marketing figures suggest 16.5%. And not all of those will be citizens eligible to vote, possibly more than other age bands.

Add to that the usual difficulties for young people voting (not in the state at the time, not registered in their current address because they move around a lot, etc.), and I have no idea why you'd expect it to go above 15% anywhere.
Yes, it’s not explained well.

That said, primary voters aren’t supposed to be a representative sample of the adult population, and are a small proportion of that population.

I assume that the issue is that it was argued that Sanders would enthuse lots of young voters to get involved in politics. If that had happened then the caucuses and voting queues would have been crowded with 18-30 year olds. That doesn’t appear to have happened.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:00 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:23 pm
dyqik wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:07 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:10 pm

This is a very strange way of reporting turnout, if that was the intention - how many people are aged 18-30? About a fifth seems plausible to me, assuming a life expectancy of 80.
US life expectancy is 78-81 (M/F) IIRC.

Per Wikipedia, 18-44 years is 34% of the US population, so 18-30 can't really be more than about 16% of the population. Some marketing figures suggest 16.5%. And not all of those will be citizens eligible to vote, possibly more than other age bands.

Add to that the usual difficulties for young people voting (not in the state at the time, not registered in their current address because they move around a lot, etc.), and I have no idea why you'd expect it to go above 15% anywhere.
Yes, it’s not explained well.

That said, primary voters aren’t supposed to be a representative sample of the adult population, and are a small proportion of that population.

I assume that the issue is that it was argued that Sanders would enthuse lots of young voters to get involved in politics. If that had happened then the caucuses and voting queues would have been crowded with 18-30 year olds. That doesn’t appear to have happened.
Surely that depends on what youth turnout has been in previous years? If young voters are normally underrepresented, which I believe is the case, then these figures sound like it could well have happened.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:39 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:00 pm
Surely that depends on what youth turnout has been in previous years? If young voters are normally underrepresented, which I believe is the case, then these figures sound like it could well have happened.
Certainly, a comparison with previous years would be a very good thing.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:14 pm

I found me some exit poll data, links below.

The table shows the proportion of the sample that is in the 18-29 age group and the 30-44 age group. Unfortunately they don't cover the same number of years so aren't directly comparable. The others are 45-64 and over 65, which are even worse, so I'll stick to the two mentioned.

There's 12 years in the 18-29 group, and 15 in the other. So we'd expect that the younger group would be about 80% of the size of the other.

In fact in most states in 2020 its a lot less than that, eg in Alabama in 2020 the younger group is less than 50%.
Primaries.jpg
Primaries.jpg (73.17 KiB) Viewed 393 times
Overall participation by the youngest group improved in 2008 compared to 2004, and again in 2016 compared to 2008. However it dropped in 2020, overall to about the same level as in 2008.

If there was a Sanders effect on young voters it seems to have occurred in 2016, particularly in Texas, New Hampshire and Massachusetts where the proportion of young voters was over 80% of the older group.

In 2020, the proportion of young voters was almost 80% in Maine, Massachusetts and Minnesota.

Note that this concerns the relative size of the different age groups. The exit poll data doesn't tell us about the absolute numbers who voted.

Links to sources:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... y-primary/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... e-primary/
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by secret squirrel » Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:25 am

Observe how the NYT artfully spun vague and inconclusive data into a superficially facty sounding dismissal of Sanders.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:12 pm

DOW Futures are falling into the toilet, potentially threatening pensions.

On top of this, scares like coronavirus mainly affect people on the right of the political spectrum, much like the disease itself mainly affects the older folks (and the already-sick).

So various things are coming in the next few months that threaten not just the actual voters of Trump, and Biden's support base, but also could be expected to drive people to feeling more sympathetic to socialism, as the importance of a social safety net becomes clearer.

Also, we have a whole summer full of environmental disasters to humanise climate change. Hopefully some of the people who die or lose their livelihoods will at least look like American voters.

In summary, many factors that would drive people towards the Democrats in general, and Sanders' medicare-for-all, welfare-state kind of approach. We also have factors that would limit people (a) available and (b) willing to vote, due to being quarantined or fear of infection.

I am therefore calling for abstracts on the themes of
- support for Bernie Sanders: an environmentally-linked or stochastic random variable?
- historical patterns in disease pressure and voter turnout in the United States, with reference to age and/or political positions
- old white men: will coronavirus make them an endangered species?
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:12 pm

BTW for those waiting on Warren's endorsement, she was on SNL last night joking that she might endorse both ;)
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by dyqik » Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:06 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:12 pm
BTW for those waiting on Warren's endorsement, she was on SNL last night joking that she might endorse both ;)
The NY Times endorsed both her and Klobuchar...

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:36 am

dyqik wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:06 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:12 pm
BTW for those waiting on Warren's endorsement, she was on SNL last night joking that she might endorse both ;)
The NY Times endorsed both her and Klobuchar...
Yes, it's quite a good joke.

I think she's about the last former runner to endorse someone, right? I'm just hoping it will be for my favourite remaining candidate, Tulsi Gabbard ;)
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by secret squirrel » Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:45 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:36 am
I think she's about the last former runner to endorse someone, right? I'm just hoping it will be for my favourite remaining candidate, Tulsi Gabbard ;)
Scenes when Bernie drops out, endorses Tulsi and takes her over the top. Honestly, I can imagine her beating Trump in a head to head, though obviously her politics are generally bad (as are Biden's tbh).

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:49 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:14 pm
I found me some exit poll data, links below.

The table shows the proportion of the sample that is in the 18-29 age group and the 30-44 age group. Unfortunately they don't cover the same number of years so aren't directly comparable. The others are 45-64 and over 65, which are even worse, so I'll stick to the two mentioned.

There's 12 years in the 18-29 group, and 15 in the other. So we'd expect that the younger group would be about 80% of the size of the other.

In fact in most states in 2020 its a lot less than that, eg in Alabama in 2020 the younger group is less than 50%.

Primaries.jpg

Overall participation by the youngest group improved in 2008 compared to 2004, and again in 2016 compared to 2008. However it dropped in 2020, overall to about the same level as in 2008.

If there was a Sanders effect on young voters it seems to have occurred in 2016, particularly in Texas, New Hampshire and Massachusetts where the proportion of young voters was over 80% of the older group.

In 2020, the proportion of young voters was almost 80% in Maine, Massachusetts and Minnesota.

Note that this concerns the relative size of the different age groups. The exit poll data doesn't tell us about the absolute numbers who voted.

Links to sources:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... y-primary/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... e-primary/
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/
Some better analysis which is also based upon turnout.
https://twitter.com/dellavolpe/status/1 ... 02784?s=20

Basically increased turnout by older people in 10-12 of the 12 states (depending upon the category), but only by young people in four of them.

Which possibly suggests that in a rapidly ageing country maybe fielding a septuagenarian candidate is a smart move.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:50 am

secret squirrel wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:25 am
Observe how the NYT artfully spun vague and inconclusive data into a superficially facty sounding dismissal of Sanders.
Sanders himself has acknowledged the problem:
"Have we been as successful as I would hope in bringing young people in? The answer is no," Sanders told reporters at a news conference at his Burlington, Vt., headquarters. Sanders went on to acknowledge the undeniable challenge that any candidate banking on the support of younger voters faces: They do not vote in high numbers, compared with other groups.

"I think that will change in the general election, but I will be honest with you, we have not done as well with bringing young people into the process," Sanders said. "It is not easy."
https://www.npr.org/2020/03/06/81248651 ... he-planned

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by secret squirrel » Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:26 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:50 am
secret squirrel wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:25 am
Observe how the NYT artfully spun vague and inconclusive data into a superficially facty sounding dismissal of Sanders.
Sanders himself has acknowledged the problem:
"Have we been as successful as I would hope in bringing young people in? The answer is no," Sanders told reporters at a news conference at his Burlington, Vt., headquarters. Sanders went on to acknowledge the undeniable challenge that any candidate banking on the support of younger voters faces: They do not vote in high numbers, compared with other groups.

"I think that will change in the general election, but I will be honest with you, we have not done as well with bringing young people into the process," Sanders said. "It is not easy."
https://www.npr.org/2020/03/06/81248651 ... he-planned
Well what else is he going to say? He obviously hasn't attracted staggeringly greater numbers of young people in the primary race, but it's unclear whether he has attracted somewhat more, or what other factors are involved. The NYT is happy to just hint at a gloomy picture of the situation, without any substantial analysis to back it up.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:35 am

I've been catching up on who has endorsed who recently - so far all the previous runners have endorsed Biden, except for Warren who's biden her time.

Kamala Harris is an interesting and unexpected one. When she did her "that little girl was me" speech, criticising Biden's support for segregationists, was when I started thinking Biden was too problematic, with too much baggage. He's pretty much running on a platform of "working hand-in-hand with racists", so criticism from a person of colour that his historical "reaching across the aisle" was in fact enabling racists and retarding court-mandated social progress should have been a death knell, but here she is endorsing him anyway.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:54 am

"Ecology without socialism is just gardening" - Chico Mendes

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:51 am

The charts here are interesting:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... /national/

On 1 March, Biden was polling at 16.7% and Sanders at 28.8%. Of the others, Buttigieg 10.2%, Warren 12.3%, Bloomberg 15.1% (plus others who've now dropped out, total of 44.7%)
On 4 March, after Buttigieg and Steyer dropped out, Biden was up at 34.9%, Sanders 29.1%. Warren and Bloomberg had 27.6% left. So, together, W&B barely moved, Sanders barely moved, and Biden picked up pretty much the entirety of the remaining vote.
Today, with Warren, Bloomberg and Klobuchar having all dropped out, Sanders has moved up to 33.3%, and Biden is on 51.6%. If for shiggles you assume that Sanders' increase came entirely from Warren's camp, that means that her vote broke 69% for Biden, not Sanders.

Warren's still (just about) got some leverage, she'd do well to demand the VP now before Biden wins Michigan.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:56 am

There's six primaries today, including Michigan, so lets see how the votes tally.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:02 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:51 am
The charts here are interesting:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... /national/

On 1 March, Biden was polling at 16.7% and Sanders at 28.8%. Of the others, Buttigieg 10.2%, Warren 12.3%, Bloomberg 15.1% (plus others who've now dropped out, total of 44.7%)
On 4 March, after Buttigieg and Steyer dropped out, Biden was up at 34.9%, Sanders 29.1%. Warren and Bloomberg had 27.6% left. So, together, W&B barely moved, Sanders barely moved, and Biden picked up pretty much the entirety of the remaining vote.
Today, with Warren, Bloomberg and Klobuchar having all dropped out, Sanders has moved up to 33.3%, and Biden is on 51.6%. If for shiggles you assume that Sanders' increase came entirely from Warren's camp, that means that her vote broke 69% for Biden, not Sanders.

Warren's still (just about) got some leverage, she'd do well to demand the VP now before Biden wins Michigan.
I just checked the state level polls, and that picture is reflected today's primaries (except Idaho and North Dakota where there weren't any polls).

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by lpm » Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:22 am

Win MI today, FL next week, all over and Biden should start planning his convention speech.
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