Scrutable

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:22 am

Win MI today, FL next week, all over and Biden should start planning his convention speech.

More important will be Bernie's concession speeches.

Seems that a lot of Warren supporters have moved to Biden.

I know there's at least a couple of posters here who were fans of Warren but don't like Sanders - would you feel comfortable explaining this move?

Because Biden and Warren are really quite far apart politically - I take it the choice is down to their approach, rather than their policies?

I read a thing about how apparently Sanders doesn't play well to educated working white women (EWWW), so that'll play some part, but if those figures are right, the issue is much wider than that.

Primary voters have become single issue voters - the single issue being to win in November.

You swim to the strongest looking lifeboat, rather than stopping to worry which colour lifeboat you like best. Might regret it later, once you're safely aboard and wishing you'd chosen better.

This is why some people should worry less about November - there's going to be a huge anti-Trump wave that will swamp Putin's interference.

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:24 pm

This is why some people should worry less about November - there's going to be a huge anti-Trump wave that will swamp Putin's interference.

Yes, for sure - the Dems should be able to win in November with pretty much any candidate. That's why I thought this was a good opportunity to be a bit ambitious with goals - become a world-leader by taking genuinely useful measures on climate change, fix the absurd situation of millions of people with no health insurance in the richest country ever, a shift in the foreign-policy paradigm and so on.

Instead, it seems that a few years of an orange gibbon flinging sh.t around the White House has given the country collective amnesia about what a disappointment Obama's legacy turned out to be. Yes, sure, a lot of the blame for that lies with Republicans - so why not start negotiations high, if they'll inevitably be watered down anyway? You don't go into negotiations offering less than you what to achieve.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:19 pm

I read a thing about how apparently Sanders doesn't play well to educated working white women (EWWW), so that'll play some part, but if those figures are right, the issue is much wider than that.

Yes, it's interesting that Sanders' main political supporters have been women of colour like AOC and Ilhan Omar, whereas Warren and her supporters seem to genuinely dislike him as an individual despite their large areas of common ground.

For me, it's disappointing that Warren didn't take one last stand on principles and endorse Sanders, which would be her last shot at getting her agenda enacted, especially as she has complementary strengths to Sanders'.

The harassment from Bernie-Bros can't be dismissed as a factor. EWWW who support Warren online have been subjected to male-style hatred and abuse - and can't bear the thought of switching to Sanders as a result.

Some of that abuse came from Russian bots, but Sander's kept casually dismissing it, while adding mad conspiracy theories and "fake news" rants of his own. Quite simply, Sanders is too Trumpy for many women.

I doubt they're exactly card holders for the Joe Biden Massage Centre either, mind.

538 reckon Biden will win everything tonight, but that Sanders has the best chance of getting Washington and DA.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ou ... primaries/

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:57 pm

538 reckon Biden will win everything tonight, but that Sanders has the best chance of getting Washington and DA.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ou ... primaries/

It's a big shame. Biden makes the global climate fight a lot harder, not to mention leaving US society unpleasantly f.cked and wide-open for the next Trump.

It's a big kick in the pants for people wanting a better future, rather than just rolling the clock back four years to when things were still f.cked, but a bit less so, and the guy in charge was less of a c.nt.

It's a weirdness though, a lot of the reason why Obama couldn't get anything done was because congress was either controlled by or able to be held up by the Republicans for much of his tenure. He tried workarounds but had to work with what he had. The dilemma is that Biden might have a chance of helping the Dems gets control of congress, but wouldn't do as much with it if he could. Sanders would have next to no chance and the Republicans would obstruct everything again.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:06 pm

It's a weirdness though, a lot of the reason why Obama couldn't get anything done was because congress was either controlled by or able to be held up by the Republicans for much of his tenure. He tried workarounds but had to work with what he had. The dilemma is that Biden might have a chance of helping the Dems gets control of congress, but wouldn't do as much with it if he could. Sanders would have next to no chance and the Republicans would obstruct everything again.

For this reason, both Sanders and Biden have plans that involve making a lot of executive orders

Yes, it's possible we'll get Democrats in WH, Senate and House, for the first time since 2008-10 - which is when Obamacare was achieved.

Before that, Democrats in control for first 2 Clinton years, 1992-94.

Before that, Democrats basically were in control of House and Senate continually 1945-1980, with odd years here and there when Republicans won.

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:48 pm

The harassment from Bernie-Bros can't be dismissed as a factor. EWWW who support Warren online have been subjected to male-style hatred and abuse - and can't bear the thought of switching to Sanders as a result.

Some of that abuse came from Russian bots, but Sander's kept casually dismissing it, while adding mad conspiracy theories and "fake news" rants of his own. Quite simply, Sanders is too Trumpy for many women.

Where is the evidence that 'harassment from Bernie Bros' is actually a thing? I mean, above the background unpleasant level of online discourse? The whole 'Bernie Bros' narrative that Sanders was supported mainly by young white dudes turned out to be rubbish, for a start. Also, what mad conspiracy theories has Sanders been pushing?

Biden is a documented sex pest and a creep. His behavior towards Anita Hill was disgraceful. Anyone who criticizes Sanders for anything related to sexism but gives Biden a pass is either an idiot, or was just using 'sexism' as a rationalization for something else all along, like wanting to defend their relatively comfortable position in society.

Sanders has recent stated that he’s disgusted by the ugly personal attacks directed by his supporters against Warren:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... nst-warren

This article makes the claim that it's not so much the size of the bro cohort as the perception of their activity and tolerance from Sanders' camp:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... rtbag-left

The Culinary Workers Union can provide rather a lot of evidence on the online abuse.

I think Sanders misforecast how badly his attacks on the press would play with Democrats. He's kept doing it, from 2016 onwards, including his current feud with MSNBC. You simply can't slam a news network for running fake news without looking like Trump. This is one thing Democrats are voting to end, so why the hell does Sanders do it?

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:54 pm

Sanders has recent stated that he’s disgusted by the ugly personal attacks directed by his supporters against Warren:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... nst-warren

This isn't evidence that Sanders supporters are more offensive than anyone else though, just that Sanders feels compelled to apologize for his ruder supporters more, for what could be any number of reasons. I've seen plenty of online rudeness directed towards Sanders and his fans by supporters of other Democratic candidates. In this very thread, for example, lpm described Sanders as an 'awful man', and said his supporters are 'even worse'. Not in the middle of a heated argument, but as a conversation starter.

secret squirrel wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:42 pm

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:48 pm

The harassment from Bernie-Bros can't be dismissed as a factor. EWWW who support Warren online have been subjected to male-style hatred and abuse - and can't bear the thought of switching to Sanders as a result.

Some of that abuse came from Russian bots, but Sander's kept casually dismissing it, while adding mad conspiracy theories and "fake news" rants of his own. Quite simply, Sanders is too Trumpy for many women.

Where is the evidence that 'harassment from Bernie Bros' is actually a thing? I mean, above the background unpleasant level of online discourse? The whole 'Bernie Bros' narrative that Sanders was supported mainly by young white dudes turned out to be rubbish, for a start. Also, what mad conspiracy theories has Sanders been pushing?

Biden is a documented sex pest and a creep. His behavior towards Anita Hill was disgraceful. Anyone who criticizes Sanders for anything related to sexism but gives Biden a pass is either an idiot, or was just using 'sexism' as a rationalization for something else all along, like wanting to defend their relatively comfortable position in society.

I see it constantly. Asking for evidence of clearly visible harassment from Sanders supporters is a really bad look for someone who supports Sanders.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:05 pm

I see it constantly. Asking for evidence of clearly visible harassment from Sanders supporters is a really bad look for someone who supports Sanders.

I'm saying 'above the background level', which is high across the board.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:05 pm

secret squirrel wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:42 pm

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:48 pm

The harassment from Bernie-Bros can't be dismissed as a factor. EWWW who support Warren online have been subjected to male-style hatred and abuse - and can't bear the thought of switching to Sanders as a result.

Some of that abuse came from Russian bots, but Sander's kept casually dismissing it, while adding mad conspiracy theories and "fake news" rants of his own. Quite simply, Sanders is too Trumpy for many women.

Where is the evidence that 'harassment from Bernie Bros' is actually a thing? I mean, above the background unpleasant level of online discourse? The whole 'Bernie Bros' narrative that Sanders was supported mainly by young white dudes turned out to be rubbish, for a start. Also, what mad conspiracy theories has Sanders been pushing?

Biden is a documented sex pest and a creep. His behavior towards Anita Hill was disgraceful. Anyone who criticizes Sanders for anything related to sexism but gives Biden a pass is either an idiot, or was just using 'sexism' as a rationalization for something else all along, like wanting to defend their relatively comfortable position in society.

I see it constantly. Asking for evidence of clearly visible harassment from Sanders supporters is a really bad look for someone who supports Sanders.

I think it's been quite acrimonious all round. I did see a lot of people posting snake emojis to refer to Warren at one point, for instance. I've also seen more attacks on Sanders than on Warren - and coming from people higher up than anonymous internet randoms - but as everybody inhabits an algorithm-derived online bubble it's impossible to be confident about relative frequencies.

I agree that the facts aren't actually super important. If Sanders' supporters are perceived as being aggressive and unpleasant, it doesn't matter whether that reputation is deserved or not - it will shift people in the other direction. And discussions about any kind of harassment do need to be handled sensitively rather than combatively.

secret squirrel wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:09 pm

dyqik wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:05 pm

I see it constantly. Asking for evidence of clearly visible harassment from Sanders supporters is a really bad look for someone who supports Sanders.

I'm saying 'above the background level', which is high across the board.

I haven't seen any significant abuse from Warren, Biden and others' supporters.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:18 pm

secret squirrel wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:09 pm

dyqik wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:05 pm

I see it constantly. Asking for evidence of clearly visible harassment from Sanders supporters is a really bad look for someone who supports Sanders.

I'm saying 'above the background level', which is high across the board.

I haven't seen any significant abuse from Warren, Biden and others' supporters.

Somebody put this collection together on reddit, of comments from as single anti-Sanders forum. https://www.reddit.com/r/enoughsanderss ... oments_of/

So it probably depends where you look. If you know a lot of Warren supporters you'll see them getting abused. If you know a lot of Sanders supporters, likewise.

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:31 pm

dyqik wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:18 pm

secret squirrel wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:09 pm

I'm saying 'above the background level', which is high across the board.

I haven't seen any significant abuse from Warren, Biden and others' supporters.

Somebody put this collection together on reddit, of comments from as single anti-Sanders forum. https://www.reddit.com/r/enoughsanderss ... oments_of/

So it probably depends where you look. If you know a lot of Warren supporters you'll see them getting abused. If you know a lot of Sanders supporters, likewise.

A dedicated forum is very much not what we are talking about. I'm talking about general twitter threads. etc.