Democratic Candidate 2020

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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:04 pm

Going to give a campaign "update" in an hour, apparers.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Gentleman Jim » Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:12 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:02 pm
Kamala Harris.

Ticks all the boxes. Not too left wing to scare anyone. Only 55 so likely to survive the pandemic and take over the nomination later this year.
Not a popular figure with the black vote
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:24 pm

dyqik wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:46 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:13 pm
Sanders was the most promising left-wing candidate in the USA for a long time. It seems that it will continue to be an outlier on things like access to healthcare, workers rights, the environment and so on for at least another generation. Bad for people who live there, obviously, but also could encourage the creeping relaxation of these things in places like Brexit Britain.
Sanders actual major policies in office would have been what ever he could convince the right wing of the Democratic Party to vote for, as those policies all need legislation to pass the House and Senate to be implemented.

That's assuming he could help win Senate seats in purple and red states, which largely gave Biden their primary votes. No Senate = no policies at all, as the courts are stacked.
Yes, all political proposals are subject to a period of watering down.

Therefore, as with any negotiation, it makes sense to start by asking for more than you expect to get, not to compromise on your objectives before you even get to the table.

The right gets this. They repeatedly say that they'll do something totally abhorrent, and then following pushback from their opponents do something marginally less abhorrent, and then both sides can claim victory. It works, which is why the US is drifting ever further to the right.

Sanders also, clearly, understands this. His campaign seems to be quite effective at endorsing downticket candidates and mobilising people, which is exactly what you'd hope from somebody who's going to have to fight against the Republicans to get anything done (as would Biden). And, the longer he stays in the race, the more the window of conventional debate shifts leftwards.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:29 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:17 pm
Doesn't look like Sanders is going to carry on. Why bother trying in FL and AZ next week? He's too old and ill, Covid is ending the rallies and I don't think he'll repeat his treatment of Clinton.
Where do you get "too old and ill" from? He's only a year older than Biden, and seems more mentally with it.

His announcement was that he's staying in till Sunday for a head-to-head debate with Biden, which should be good fun. I haven't watched reams of footage of either of them, but Sanders seems much better able to articulate his thoughts and argue for his beliefs. Biden does genuinely seem old and a bit doddery.

I think it could be an interesting challenge to the "Biden is more electable" narrative, personally.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by secret squirrel » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:46 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:29 pm
lpm wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:17 pm
Doesn't look like Sanders is going to carry on. Why bother trying in FL and AZ next week? He's too old and ill, Covid is ending the rallies and I don't think he'll repeat his treatment of Clinton.
Where do you get "too old and ill" from? He's only a year older than Biden, and seems more mentally with it.

His announcement was that he's staying in till Sunday for a head-to-head debate with Biden, which should be good fun. I haven't watched reams of footage of either of them, but Sanders seems much better able to articulate his thoughts and argue for his beliefs. Biden does genuinely seem old and a bit doddery.

I think it could be an interesting challenge to the "Biden is more electable" narrative, personally.
Biden also had two brain aneurysms back in the 80s.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:40 am

secret squirrel wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:46 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:29 pm
lpm wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:17 pm
Doesn't look like Sanders is going to carry on. Why bother trying in FL and AZ next week? He's too old and ill, Covid is ending the rallies and I don't think he'll repeat his treatment of Clinton.
Where do you get "too old and ill" from? He's only a year older than Biden, and seems more mentally with it.

His announcement was that he's staying in till Sunday for a head-to-head debate with Biden, which should be good fun. I haven't watched reams of footage of either of them, but Sanders seems much better able to articulate his thoughts and argue for his beliefs. Biden does genuinely seem old and a bit doddery.

I think it could be an interesting challenge to the "Biden is more electable" narrative, personally.
Biden also had two brain aneurysms back in the 80s.
That's fine. The 80s were ages ago, and he's clearly been well enough to hold public office since then. I don't think it's fair to suggest that historical health problems should disqualify people from the job.

Sanders's recent heart attack is more of a concern, as it presumably means he's at risk of another. But "too ill" to continue campaigning? I haven't seen any evidence of that. He doesn't seem like a guy who gives up easily, and has put himself in life-threatening situations for his beliefs before, so I'm not convinced he'd quit even if it were the sensible thing to do health-wise.

The other concern, which appears to be legitimate, is Biden's current mental faculties and the possibility of their decline before November. To be electable, Biden will be going up against Trump a series of debates that will influence swing voters. I guess on Sunday we'll get a taste of what that looks like.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:57 am

Let's be honest, if they were P and VP, there'd be a pretty reasonable chance of both of them carking it before the term was out, and a non-elected president taking over for the first time since Gerald Ford.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:13 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:57 am
Let's be honest, if they were P and VP, there'd be a pretty reasonable chance of both of them carking it before the term was out, and a non-elected president taking over for the first time since Gerald Ford.
Yes, I think that's fair. Media commenters have been emphasising the importance of the VP pick for a while now. A younger woman would be a good call IMHO.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Gentleman Jim » Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:33 pm

May not matter, since Trump supporters maybe "self-culled" soon:
According to SurveyMonkey, 62% of Republicans think the seriousness of coronavirus is "generally exaggerated", versus only 31% of Democrats.
A Quinnipiac poll found 63% of Republicans were either "not so concerned" or "not concerned at all" about the virus, while for Democrats that number drops to 31%.
Dawn Rofrano of Singer Island agreed that the president was handling things "the right way". Like many Americans, she said, she is carrying hand sanitiser and being careful not to touch her face, but "for the most part I'm not scared".

"I'm looking at the facts," said Rofrano, who works as a health coach at a natural medicine clinic. "That's what I need to do."
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by secret squirrel » Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:50 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:40 am
That's fine. The 80s were ages ago, and he's clearly been well enough to hold public office since then. I don't think it's fair to suggest that historical health problems should disqualify people from the job.

Sanders's recent heart attack is more of a concern, as it presumably means he's at risk of another. But "too ill" to continue campaigning? I haven't seen any evidence of that. He doesn't seem like a guy who gives up easily, and has put himself in life-threatening situations for his beliefs before, so I'm not convinced he'd quit even if it were the sensible thing to do health-wise.

The other concern, which appears to be legitimate, is Biden's current mental faculties and the possibility of their decline before November. To be electable, Biden will be going up against Trump a series of debates that will influence swing voters. I guess on Sunday we'll get a taste of what that looks like.
That depends if we're being honest or playing the old 'electable according to folk wisdom' game. You can imagine the water cooler conversations now:
"Did you see Biden at the debate last night? He didn't look very with it."
"Yeah. He had two bran aneurysms don't you know."
"Oh wow. I guess it makes sense. That's gotta take a toll."

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by lpm » Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:07 pm

The Americans have an odd view of presidents, seeking competence and government from a single individual.

Hopefully Trump and Covid will show them it's all about the team and the depth of competence. Biden needs to present his core team - the qualified experts who will keep the country in safe hands. It will be a stark contrast to the Trump presidency of one person doing everything by personal instinct - with deadly results.

Politically, that's the way round Biden's weaknesses on alertness and mental agility - matters less when there's a strong team; Trump has similar cognition issues but has made himself the sole decision-maker.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by secret squirrel » Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:23 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:07 pm
The Americans have an odd view of presidents, seeking competence and government from a single individual.

Hopefully Trump and Covid will show them it's all about the team and the depth of competence. Biden needs to present his core team - the qualified experts who will keep the country in safe hands. It will be a stark contrast to the Trump presidency of one person doing everything by personal instinct - with deadly results.

Politically, that's the way round Biden's weaknesses on alertness and mental agility - matters less when there's a strong team; Trump has similar cognition issues but has made himself the sole decision-maker.
Yes it's true. Part of the problem with Trump is that he's surrounded himself with an exceptionally useless bunch of people (to a large extent because competent people don't want to work with him for long, if at all). Presumably Biden won't have the same problem, so at least under him America could get back to being a vaguely well organized monstrosity.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:29 am

This is a good article on why Sanders might be struggling with women more than Biden is. Especially as the impact is bigger, because women are 57% of the primary electorate.
there is evidence, according to an analysis by Dan Cassino, a political science professor at Fairleigh Dickinson University, that while support for Biden increases among voters with more sexist views, those with the most sexist views were disproportionately likely to favor Sanders. And sexism was higher, in general, among men.

“Educated Democrats who are quite sexist are disproportionately likely to be Sanders supporters,” said Cassino. “To be clear, there aren’t a lot of those people in the Democratic Party. But because of their education and social capital, they’re probably more inclined to tell people about their views and express them online.”
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by secret squirrel » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:20 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:29 am
This is a good article on why Sanders might be struggling with women more than Biden is. Especially as the impact is bigger, because women are 57% of the primary electorate.
there is evidence, according to an analysis by Dan Cassino, a political science professor at Fairleigh Dickinson University, that while support for Biden increases among voters with more sexist views, those with the most sexist views were disproportionately likely to favor Sanders. And sexism was higher, in general, among men.

“Educated Democrats who are quite sexist are disproportionately likely to be Sanders supporters,” said Cassino. “To be clear, there aren’t a lot of those people in the Democratic Party. But because of their education and social capital, they’re probably more inclined to tell people about their views and express them online.”
That whole analysis seems pretty sketchy to me. So support for Sanders is stable for all sexism levels, while support for Biden increases, right up till the highest sexism scores, when suddenly support for Sanders spikes and support for Biden drops. And this is supposed to reflect some truth of the world we can extrapolate from rather than just noise? I'm not convinced.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:25 am

secret squirrel wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:20 am
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:29 am
This is a good article on why Sanders might be struggling with women more than Biden is. Especially as the impact is bigger, because women are 57% of the primary electorate.
there is evidence, according to an analysis by Dan Cassino, a political science professor at Fairleigh Dickinson University, that while support for Biden increases among voters with more sexist views, those with the most sexist views were disproportionately likely to favor Sanders. And sexism was higher, in general, among men.

“Educated Democrats who are quite sexist are disproportionately likely to be Sanders supporters,” said Cassino. “To be clear, there aren’t a lot of those people in the Democratic Party. But because of their education and social capital, they’re probably more inclined to tell people about their views and express them online.”
That whole analysis seems pretty sketchy to me. So support for Sanders is stable for all sexism levels, while support for Biden increases, right up till the highest sexism scores, when suddenly support for Sanders spikes and support for Biden drops. And this is supposed to reflect some truth of the world we can extrapolate from rather than just noise? I'm not convinced.
I agree. Here's what Cassino wrote: https://cawp.rutgers.edu/election-analy ... arren-down

What he shows is that Biden has the most support from voters who have the most sexist views, but among Sanders supporters, there are more of the most sexist category than of voters with less sexist opinions. ETA I'm not convinced how this could result more support for Biden than Sanders among women (as Biden still has most support from the most sexist voters).

The 538 article does though provide a much more persuasive explanation for greater female support for Biden, which is that most of them are older:
So far, women over the age of 45 have made up 38 percent of Democratic primary voters, while women under the age of 45 only made up 19 percent. And the age gap that has emerged across the primary is almost certainly shaping women’s support for Sanders too: older women tend to be more moderate than younger women, which means they may be less likely to see Sanders’s calls to upend the status quo as feasible or appealing.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by dyqik » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:24 am

I think the point was that the very sexist supporters are loud online, with both their support and sexism. More mildly sexist supporters of either candidate aren't being spotted and called out as sexist to anything like the same degree. Thus loud sexist supporters stand out in what women see from the candidates supporters, and the impression of the Bernie Bros forms.

And keen active Biden supporters are almost non-existent in my white suburban middle class bubble anyway.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by lpm » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:29 am

Need to change to the past tense. Not "Sanders has more support from..." but "Sanders had more support". It's over, remaining voters have zero interest in continuing the contest.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:42 am

dyqik wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:24 am
I think the point was that the very sexist supporters are loud online, with both their support and sexism. More mildly sexist supporters of either candidate aren't being spotted and called out as sexist to anything like the same degree. Thus loud sexist supporters stand out in what women see from the candidates supporters, and the impression of the Bernie Bros forms.
That'll happen, but Biden still has a lot more of the most sexist supporters than does Sanders. So I don't see how the cited study explains why women are less likely to support Sanders.

Its possible that there is some kind of an interaction with age - if the most sexist Sanders supporters are also young they might be much more active and noticeable than most sexist Biden supporters who are older and possibly more low key.

But that's speculating beyond what the source tells us.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by secret squirrel » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:45 am

dyqik wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:24 am
I think the point was that the very sexist supporters are loud online, with both their support and sexism. More mildly sexist supporters of either candidate aren't being spotted and called out as sexist to anything like the same degree. Thus loud sexist supporters stand out in what women see from the candidates supporters, and the impression of the Bernie Bros forms.

And keen active Biden supporters are almost non-existent in my white suburban middle class bubble anyway.
That's the point yes, but I see nothing to support the claim that Sanders does in reality have a more noticeably sexist subgroup of supporters than anyone else. What there is is a persistent narrative of 'Bernie Bros' and 'problems with sexism', and every time the data reveals that this narrative is wrong in an obvious sense, the people pushing it retreat into more and more convoluted formulations of what 'the problem' actually is. It's basically political pseudoscience.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:56 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:42 am
dyqik wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:24 am
I think the point was that the very sexist supporters are loud online, with both their support and sexism. More mildly sexist supporters of either candidate aren't being spotted and called out as sexist to anything like the same degree. Thus loud sexist supporters stand out in what women see from the candidates supporters, and the impression of the Bernie Bros forms.
That'll happen, but Biden still has a lot more of the most sexist supporters than does Sanders. So I don't see how the cited study explains why women are less likely to support Sanders.
The cited study isn't trying to; the 538 article I posted is trying to. The study is looking at explaining the relative levels of sexism in the fanbase of each candidate.
Its possible that there is some kind of an interaction with age - if the most sexist Sanders supporters are also young they might be much more active and noticeable than most sexist Biden supporters who are older and possibly more low key.

But that's speculating beyond what the source tells us.
The 538 source I posted does specifically look at that...
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:28 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:56 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:42 am
dyqik wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:24 am
I think the point was that the very sexist supporters are loud online, with both their support and sexism. More mildly sexist supporters of either candidate aren't being spotted and called out as sexist to anything like the same degree. Thus loud sexist supporters stand out in what women see from the candidates supporters, and the impression of the Bernie Bros forms.
That'll happen, but Biden still has a lot more of the most sexist supporters than does Sanders. So I don't see how the cited study explains why women are less likely to support Sanders.
The cited study isn't trying to; the 538 article I posted is trying to. The study is looking at explaining the relative levels of sexism in the fanbase of each candidate.
Indeed, too many different sources for my addled brain.

Its possible that there is some kind of an interaction with age - if the most sexist Sanders supporters are also young they might be much more active and noticeable than most sexist Biden supporters who are older and possibly more low key.

But that's speculating beyond what the source tells us.
The 538 source I posted does specifically look at that...
[/quote]

Yes, but unusually for 538, it doesn't seem to have any data.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:37 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:56 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:42 am
dyqik wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:24 am
I think the point was that the very sexist supporters are loud online, with both their support and sexism. More mildly sexist supporters of either candidate aren't being spotted and called out as sexist to anything like the same degree. Thus loud sexist supporters stand out in what women see from the candidates supporters, and the impression of the Bernie Bros forms.
That'll happen, but Biden still has a lot more of the most sexist supporters than does Sanders. So I don't see how the cited study explains why women are less likely to support Sanders.
The cited study isn't trying to; the 538 article I posted is trying to. The study is looking at explaining the relative levels of sexism in the fanbase of each candidate.
Its possible that there is some kind of an interaction with age - if the most sexist Sanders supporters are also young they might be much more active and noticeable than most sexist Biden supporters who are older and possibly more low key.

But that's speculating beyond what the source tells us.
The 538 source I posted does specifically look at that...
The most interesting idea in the article for me was the data showing that more women define their identity by political party than men - I'd have assumed the opposite (probably because men of all ages are noisier). So Sanders' open attacks on the Democratic party establishment might be more off-putting to women.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by dyqik » Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:40 pm

So many men define themselves as libertarian, without adopting a party...

More seriously, men are also more likely to define themselves as rational independents, who aren't part of collective effort. While always finding excuses to vote for the GOP.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:46 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:37 pm
The most interesting idea in the article for me was the data showing that more women define their identity by political party than men - I'd have assumed the opposite (probably because men of all ages are noisier). So Sanders' open attacks on the Democratic party establishment might be more off-putting to women.
That is notable, as in the UK party membership has traditionally been much more male than female (though less so with the Labour Party).

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:03 pm

So, the current state of play:

4,754 delegates in total, though the current battles are for the the 3,983 'unpledged' (democratically decided) delegates. Candidates need 1991 to get on the ballot at the convention.

Currently, Biden has 881, Sanders on 725.

The latest three polls are showing Biden getting 59, 53 or 54% of votes, and only needs 50.3% - his place looks safe.

Sanders is on 35, 38 or 33%, and needs 57.4% - not looking so good.

Things look especially bad for Sanders because 16% of the final votes are from "superdelegates", members of the Democratic party establishment, rather than directly representing voters. In 2016 they went 80% for Clinton and can be expected to do something similar this year, so for Sanders to have a shot of winning the nomination he'd need to pick up over 50% of the public vote.

Still, less than half of delegates have actually declared, and I'd predict Sanders to do a lot better than Biden in Sunday's debate, despite leaking his questions a couple of days ago to help his friend Joe out.
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