COVID-19

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EllyCat
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by EllyCat » Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:33 pm

gosling wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 6:37 pm
TOOLS FOR CORONAVIRUS RESEARCHERS Many of the above, and others, have signed a joint statement, sent out by the health charity Wellcome, committing to work together to ensure that research findings and data relevant to the new coronavirus are shared rapidly and openly.
Thanks for sharing. Brilliant to see the paywalls coming down (although it’s a shame it takes an emergency to make it happen, hopefully the fact that it is happening will set a precedent).

mikeh
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by mikeh » Fri Jan 31, 2020 9:06 pm

The reason all of this is being put in the public domain in essence stems from a Chatham House meeting in 2015 and this subsequent scribbling in the Lancet.

In previous outbreaks, including Ebola in West Africa, swine flu, bird flu and SARS, academics writing these papers pathetically kept the data to themselves to avoid being scooped and to ensure they got their paper in Lancet/Nature/whatever and their share of academic glory.
Meanwhile, useful public health data was not only not published openly, but not even shared with the WHO and other relevant authorities, information that could support response efforts.
Which is pretty shameful. Thus, some heated discussion at Chatham House and journals being coerced into a) compelling authors to send their data over to WHO et al before they can have a paper accepted, and b) pressure also to make it open-access

Cant remember if I've written that on this thread before, so may be repeated info.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by mikeh » Fri Jan 31, 2020 9:35 pm

There was a Q&A between journalists and Public Health England. This was one of the questions
- how close is a ‘close contact’ of these cases? Should hotel staff or other guests be worried? Should all guests be self-isolating at home?
And this was the answer
Close contact means being within two metres of the individual for 15 minutes.
I guess its something that needs a definition, and that's presumably as good a definition as any (though no idea how that was concocted, and what evidence it might be based on). Just looks a bit odd, and rather leave it open to people who were 2 metres away for 10 minutes or 3 metres away for 20 minutes to get a wee bit confused and panicky.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Brightonian » Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:16 pm

mikeh wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 9:35 pm
There was a Q&A between journalists and Public Health England. This was one of the questions
- how close is a ‘close contact’ of these cases? Should hotel staff or other guests be worried? Should all guests be self-isolating at home?
And this was the answer
Close contact means being within two metres of the individual for 15 minutes.
I guess its something that needs a definition, and that's presumably as good a definition as any (though no idea how that was concocted, and what evidence it might be based on). Just looks a bit odd, and rather leave it open to people who were 2 metres away for 10 minutes or 3 metres away for 20 minutes to get a wee bit confused and panicky.
On reading that, I wondered what one is supposed to do if one has had "close contact", and I found this New South Wales health department advice. But it's got a different definition from PHE. So now I've been trying to work out how many "close contacts" I've had today. My NSW heath dept score is maybe 5-10. My PHE score is maybe 50-100.

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gosling
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by gosling » Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:20 pm

EllyCat wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:33 pm
Thanks for sharing. Brilliant to see the paywalls coming down (although it’s a shame it takes an emergency to make it happen, hopefully the fact that it is happening will set a precedent).
You're welcome. There's been a bit of a mad scramble at work this week to get this done. At one point I was asked to find all articles or chapters that contained the word "coronavirus" with the aim of making them all free. I think they quickly realised that would be counterproductive so went for a curated collection instead.

mikeh
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by mikeh » Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:31 pm

Brightonian wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:16 pm
mikeh wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 9:35 pm
There was a Q&A between journalists and Public Health England. This was one of the questions
- how close is a ‘close contact’ of these cases? Should hotel staff or other guests be worried? Should all guests be self-isolating at home?
And this was the answer
Close contact means being within two metres of the individual for 15 minutes.
I guess its something that needs a definition, and that's presumably as good a definition as any (though no idea how that was concocted, and what evidence it might be based on). Just looks a bit odd, and rather leave it open to people who were 2 metres away for 10 minutes or 3 metres away for 20 minutes to get a wee bit confused and panicky.
On reading that, I wondered what one is supposed to do if one has had "close contact", and I found this New South Wales health department advice. But it's got a different definition from PHE. So now I've been trying to work out how many "close contacts" I've had today. My NSW heath dept score is maybe 5-10. My PHE score is maybe 50-100.
Interesting to see the differences. For what its worth, this was another of the PHE Q&A
- what kinds of precautions are necessary for people who think they might have been a close contact?
“Isolating yourself from other people, like you would with other flu viruses, is in step with the best scientific and expert advice on how to stop the Coronavirus from spreading. This means taking simple, common sense steps, such as staying at home and avoiding close contact with other people as much as possible.”
What does self-isolation mean for people who don’t have symptoms?
Individuals should remain at home and stay away from work, school or public areas and avoid contact with anyone but it’s ok for friends, family or delivery drivers to drop off food. Public transport or taxis should not be used until 14 days after return from Wuhan.
Individuals should monitor their symptoms and call NHS 111 (or alternative) or their GP if they develop any of the following symptoms – fever, cough, runny nose, sore throat and difficulty breathing.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by FlammableFlower » Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:13 pm

One thing that bemused me... those being flown back too the UK and put in quarantine...:
Yesterday's Guardian had photos, and today's BBC had video, of lines coaches with hazmat-suited individuals seated at the front. Yet the drivers were dressed as per usual, with no such protection. I wonder what, if any protection, they had on the drive from Oxford to the Wirral?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by mikeh » Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:03 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:13 pm
One thing that bemused me... those being flown back too the UK and put in quarantine...:
Yesterday's Guardian had photos, and today's BBC had video, of lines coaches with hazmat-suited individuals seated at the front. Yet the drivers were dressed as per usual, with no such protection. I wonder what, if any protection, they had on the drive from Oxford to the Wirral?
That also surprised me a bit. Saw a quote from somewhere in the news that the drivers had been offered the full gizmo but didn't wear them and are now being told they must self-isolate at home. Which is probably adhering to latest guidance to self-isolate if hanging around with incomers from Wuhan.

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bob sterman
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by bob sterman » Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:31 pm

Those drivers should certainly self-isolate at least...

Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/N ... tured_home

AMS
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by AMS » Sat Feb 01, 2020 5:26 pm

So it looks like this virus spreads person to person very easily, before people are aware they are ill, is pretty serious in the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, but is not particularly dangerous to people who are in good general health, and has symptoms that are not easy to distinguish from flu. Is that a fair summary of where we are?

Is there concern this could mutate to something more dangerous? Or long term is this just going to be another "regular" virus that we have to put up with like flu, i.e. something that makes people miss a few days of work, bumps off the elderly and probably ends up in the regular and/or vulnerable population vaccination schedules?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by mikeh » Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:19 pm

AMS wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 5:26 pm
So it looks like this virus spreads person to person very easily, before people are aware they are ill, is pretty serious in the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, but is not particularly dangerous to people who are in good general health, and has symptoms that are not easy to distinguish from flu. Is that a fair summary of where we are?
Pretty much. Though I'd guess that asymptomatic transmission (i.e. before showing symptoms) is much less than when symptomatic. Though not an answer we've really got at the moment.
AMS wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 5:26 pm
Is there concern this could mutate to something more dangerous?
To some extent, but viruses mutate all the time, and the upshot isn't necessarily (and in fact, very rarely) going to be something-worse-than-before.
AMS wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 5:26 pm
Or long term is this just going to be another "regular" virus that we have to put up with like flu, i.e. something that makes people miss a few days of work, bumps off the elderly and probably ends up in the regular and/or vulnerable population vaccination schedules?
My guess is at some point the outbreak will be contained and this strain will probably die out. A few dozen or even a few hundred cases in the UK or USA, that should be contained.
But that depends on the extent of the spread of cases outside China, particularly in poorer parts of the world where the surveillance system is poor and their health facilities just don't have the capacity to address cases in any great numbers, and governments are weak and cant easily tell their capital city of many millions they're not going anywhere for the next few weeks.
And also, as above, the extent of the asymptomatic transmission, that would make it harder to contain and thus harder to get rid of. SARS didn't seem to transmit without symptoms, so that could be contained 'relatively easily'.

But as ever, so many unknowns. There'll also be a vaccine in about 12-18 months, which would provide another opportunity to shift it out of existence, as long as cases are continuing but fairly low and the coronavirus hasn't one wild and crazy in the meantime.

Herainestold
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Herainestold » Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:44 pm

It looks like China is going to bear the brunt of the costs, both medically and economically. Quarantines and travel restrictions are causing the worlds biggest economy to shudder and grind to a halt. So once again we owe a debt of gratitude to the Chinese for taking the hit for all of us, all they wil lget for their sacrifices is more anti Chinese racism.
The US and Australia said they would deny entry to all foreign visitors who had recently been in China, where the virus first emerged in December.

Earlier, countries including Russia, Japan, Pakistan and Italy announced similar travel restrictions.

But global health officials have advised against such measures.

"Travel restrictions can cause more harm than good by hindering info-sharing, medical supply chains and harming economies," the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Friday.
Can't blame nations for trying to protect their own citizens, but you have to wonder if these measures actually do any good.
The US, which declared a rare public health emergency, banned entry from all foreign nationals who had visited China in the past two weeks.

US citizens and residents returning from Hubei province, where the outbreak started, will be quarantined for 14 days. Those returning from other parts of China will be allowed to monitor their own condition for a similar period.

On Saturday the Pentagon said it would provide housing for 1,000 people who may need to be quarantined after arriving in the US from abroad, until 29 February. Four military bases in California, Colorado and Texas would provide up to 250 rooms each.
Not to be out done, Australia has a similar policy.
Australia, which announced a similar ban, said any of its own citizens arriving from China would be quarantined for two weeks.
How long will it take to develop a workable vaccination and which country will succede first? My money is on China as they have the most to gain (or lose) and their science is advanced.
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mikeh
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by mikeh » Sun Feb 02, 2020 9:19 am

Herainestold wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:44 pm
How long will it take to develop a workable vaccination and which country will succede first? My money is on China as they have the most to gain (or lose) and their science is advanced.
China will presumably be going all-out to do exactly that. We'll likely have a series of claims in media puff pieces over the next few months about groups from different countries being the first, and some of those candidates will then quietly fall by the wayside because that's science. For the first properly decent candidate, if not the Chinese, I'll hazard a guess at one of the CEPI-driven candidates, they have a few options in production, and anecdotally folks reckon CureVac to be the most likely to succeed quickly.

(CEPI is Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innnovations, and funded by a truckload of cash from Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK and German governments and prob a ton of other investors too. They're fronted up by very good scientists and join up with various pharma and biotech types to develop their products. This Coronavirus outbreak will be a very good test of their models)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by shpalman » Sun Feb 02, 2020 9:56 am

Impatient* pro-vax doctor Roberto Burioni wrote "I hope we find a vaccine against the coronavirus immediately for two reasons. The first is that it will save lots of human lives, the second is for the pleasure of watching lots of antivaxxers begging for it on their knees."

a reply was "I wouldn't even let a person like you treat my haemorrhoids"

he replied "that's for the best because I'm not a dentist"

He's a f.cking hero.

(* - he's firmly in the "Oh that's your opinion? Are you a medical doctor with a Ph.D. in microbiology and specialising in virology? No? Well then f.ck off" school, with a side order of "shush, Lazio are playing")

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01 ... e-skeptics
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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bob sterman
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by bob sterman » Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:45 pm

AMS wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 5:26 pm
So it looks like this virus spreads person to person very easily, before people are aware they are ill, is pretty serious in the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, but is not particularly dangerous to people who are in good general health, and has symptoms that are not easy to distinguish from flu. Is that a fair summary of where we are?
In the Lancet paper reporting 99 hospitalised cases in Wuhan - the mean age was 55.5 (± 13.1). Most (62) were under 60. Only 15% were over 70. So the majority of patients requiring hospitalisation were not "elderly" - rather simply older adults.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 7/fulltext

Of those 99, 11 died and of these only 7 were over 60. Apparently, the first 2 to die had no pre-existing conditions (other than smoking). Of the rest, 3 had hypertension and one was a heavy smoker. But in the paper there is no suggestion that any the people that died had any particularly unusual pre-existing conditions - e.g. ones that are not present in a large % of the population of older adults.

Reports seem to suggest that early symptoms are indeed difficult to distinguish from flu. However, it seems there is a tendency for patients to worsen after an initially mild phase with mean duration from symptom onset to hospital admission being over a week...

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/N ... tured_home

Herainestold
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Herainestold » Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:20 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Feb 02, 2020 9:56 am
Impatient* pro-vax doctor Roberto Burioni wrote "I hope we find a vaccine against the coronavirus immediately for two reasons. The first is that it will save lots of human lives, the second is for the pleasure of watching lots of antivaxxers begging for it on their knees."

a reply was "I wouldn't even let a person like you treat my haemorrhoids"

he replied "that's for the best because I'm not a dentist"

He's a f.cking hero.

(* - he's firmly in the "Oh that's your opinion? Are you a medical doctor with a Ph.D. in microbiology and specialising in virology? No? Well then f.ck off" school, with a side order of "shush, Lazio are playing")

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01 ... e-skeptics
Good article on Dr. Burioni. Its gratifying to see an example of someone who appears to be making a measurable difference rather than another futile effort.
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Russian socialism will rise again

Herainestold
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Herainestold » Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:58 am

Story in NPR about building triage centre in Wuhan 2 weeks.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... er-2-weeks
"I wouldn't call it a hospital. I would call it more of a triage and isolation facility," says Eric Toner, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

Raymond Pan agrees. He's design principal at HMC Architects and designed Shunde Hospital of Southern Medical University in China, which opened in 2018.

"An infection triage, treatment and recovery center — that's what I think it is," says Pan. The idea is to have "essentially a center for mass quarantine of patients." People who test positive for the new coronavirus will be held in private rooms and receive treatment until they recover and are no longer contagious.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by bmforre » Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:20 am

"An infection triage, treatment and recovery center — that's what I think it is," says Pan.
And I believe that's what they need right now?

Surely no one can be complaining that these hospitals urgently built to meet an acute challenge lack facilities for heart surgery and thus are not properly equipped?

Newest from official Chinese source

Herainestold
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Herainestold » Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:16 am

bmforre wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:20 am
"An infection triage, treatment and recovery center — that's what I think it is," says Pan.
And I believe that's what they need right now?

Surely no one can be complaining that these hospitals urgently built to meet an acute challenge lack facilities for heart surgery and thus are not properly equipped?

Newest from official Chinese source
It looks like the right response , maybe a bit delayed but I can't imagine a Western country performing any better.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again

nefibach
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by nefibach » Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:45 pm


nefibach
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by nefibach » Mon Feb 03, 2020 6:02 pm

What are airlines doing with the jets idled by the China flight suspensions?

https://thepointsguy.com/news/airlines- ... spensions/

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Boustrophedon
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Boustrophedon » Mon Feb 03, 2020 6:29 pm

Well it seems to have been given an inaccurate if pithy name. Possibly a useful website to track the progress.

https://wuflu.live/?fbclid=IwAR1zMGFWp6 ... 6Z34YGt6dY
Hjulet snurrar men hamstern är död.

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Boustrophedon
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Boustrophedon » Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:07 pm

Hjulet snurrar men hamstern är död.

nefibach
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by nefibach » Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:14 am

Boustrophedon wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 6:29 pm
Well it seems to have been given an inaccurate if pithy name. Possibly a useful website to track the progress.

https://wuflu.live/?fbclid=IwAR1zMGFWp6 ... 6Z34YGt6dY

That won't become the official name, and it's bad that the officials have left it so long to start thinking up a name because they'll be too damn late soon.

This explains why we should not be naming it after Wuhan or even China: https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/23/its ... ds-a-name/

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Stephanie
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Stephanie » Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:02 am

A twitter thread summarising the preprints on biorxiv about Coronavirus https://twitter.com/HorsingJig/status/1 ... 35718?s=19
"I got a flu virus named after me 'cause I kissed a bat on a dare."

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