COVID-19

[Ben B]

A Facebook friend of mine who I've not seen in 20 years is now posting all-sorts of stuff about not ordering from Wish because of the virus. I can think of many reasons not to order from that site but getting coronavirus isn't one of them

I presume they think this Simpsons episode was a documentary.

[lpm]

[bob sterman]

Just to get this "killer virus" thing into perspective:
How many have died from this corona virus so far? (estimated)

The new paper in the Lancet on 99 cases diagnosed from Jan 1st to Jan 20th in Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital does suggest that the fatality rate is likely to be substantially higher than seasonal influenza.

https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lan ... 302117.pdf

Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital specialises in infectious diseases - so reading the paper at first I thought perhaps they just got all the most severe cases transferred to them and therefore a high fatality rate should not be surprising.

However, they write in the paper "adult patients were admitted centrally to the hospital from the whole of Wuhan without selectivity."

If "without selectivity" means any confirmed cases - no matter how mild or severe the symptoms - then this would suggest that the case fatality rate for people with illness serious enough to lead to diagnosis and hospital admission is a lot higher than for confirmed seasonal influenza. This was a highly specialised well-equipped hospital (e.g. 3 patients got ECMO).

However, of course the big unknown is how many cases are so mild that they never get diagnosed.

[Gentleman Jim]

Don't forget that this will allow big farma and conspiratorial governments, to add another evul vaccine to poison people

[Brightonian]

We need psychiatric research into age-related crankery. In my experience it mostly seems to affect the obvious group (men over about 45, c.f. Gannon etc), but also a small number of women, possibly from a slightly younger age. I've seen a couple of women with various New Age things in their profiles and photos in the mid-30s range (yes, I know) making weird claims about this outbreak, including that it's a plot by the US government to conceal the fact that they went bankrupt on Monday of last week.

Rang my father (83) last night and he told me he'd been out shopping twice yesterday. First for usual groceries, then again for more food, to maintain a stock in case supply chains get disrupted. I wouldn't really describe him as cranky, just cautious and sceptical, but he said he'd seen pictures of people fighting in a Wuhan supermarket over remaining food.

[lpm]

Appears that 83 year old men are at particular risk of the virus.

And also at particular risk of a lockdown / disruption.

Having a stock of food is probably sensible.

[bob sterman]

We need psychiatric research into age-related crankery. In my experience it mostly seems to affect the obvious group (men over about 45, c.f. Gannon etc), but also a small number of women, possibly from a slightly younger age. I've seen a couple of women with various New Age things in their profiles and photos in the mid-30s range (yes, I know) making weird claims about this outbreak, including that it's a plot by the US government to conceal the fact that they went bankrupt on Monday of last week.

If middle-aged men think or find that a bit of New Age crankery is attractive to women in their mid-30s - then you may have the answer!

[Gentleman Jim]

Personal appeal:

f.ck the f.cking Corona viruses; Somebody do something about the goddam Picorna viruses

[Chris Preston]

You have foot and mouth disease?

[Gentleman Jim]

You have foot and mouth disease?

Wrong genus, fortunately (or not)

[lpm]

No. The "beer virus" searches add up to roughly 0% of all coronavirus searches. And there's good reason to suspect that most of them are just people goofing around and looking for memes.

https://twitter.com/_cingraham/status/1 ... 6613737472

[OneOffDave]

Of course everyone knows that Coronavirus is a major cause of bubbles tailing to pass their fizzical

[Brightonian]

No. The "beer virus" searches add up to roughly 0% of all coronavirus searches. And there's good reason to suspect that most of them are just people goofing around and looking for memes.

https://twitter.com/_cingraham/status/1 ... 6613737472

Yep, a few days ago someone sent me a contrived pic of a slice of lime and a Corona bottle, saying lyme disease goes well with coronavirus. Of course, I had to "lol" at that as she's someone I need to get on with for the next few weeks.

[mikeh]

The reason the DHSC spokesperson may not know the detail about the flight from Wuhan will probably be that those flight type operations are run by FCO and higher levels of the other government departments aren't involved. Cross government involvement will be at a lower more operational level

Sorry just seen this, cheers, interesting to hear. Never did hear back from DHSC!

Edit - And apparently the Brits from Wuhan will be flown back and taken to that lovely village in the north - Quarantined-on-the-Wirral

[lpm]

Jesus. The poor bastards.

[Bird on a Fire]

Interesting article on the beeb written by a prof from Chatham House:

Coronavirus: Why are we catching more diseases from animals?

Outbreaks of new infectious diseases are typically seen as a "one off".

But the new virus - thought to have stemmed from wildlife - highlights our risk from animal-borne disease. This is likely to be more of a problem in future as climate change and globalisation alter the way animals and humans interact.

[bob sterman]

Question for the knowledgeable...

When the WHO, in their situation reports, give separate figures for "Confirmed" and "Suspected" cases - presumably the "Suspected" cases are in addition to the "Confirmed" ones? E.g.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source ... 0-ncov.pdf

[Gfamily]

First confirmed UK cases
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51325192

Two members of the same family, No location or other details being given for the time being,

[shpalman]

It has arrived in Rome thanks to two Chinese tourists

[Rich Scopie]

First confirmed UK cases
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51325192

Two members of the same family, No location or other details being given for the time being,

Good job the NHS is getting £350 million a week extra as of tomorrow.
(ETA: They're in Newcastle)

[Herainestold]

In China, innovative use of surveillance drones to spread public health awareness of corona virus.
Whether it will work is another matter but it is instructive to see the Chinese authorities response to an unprecedented public health crisis.

The Chinese government is using drones to police and harass citizens for walking outside without face masks, shows video from the English-language mouthpiece of the Communist party.



The video, posted by Global Times, shows various clips of a drone camera hovering over a person or group of people and cheekily telling them to go home and put a face mask on before coming back out in public.

“Yes, auntie, this is the drone speaking to you,” reads the caption.

The older woman looks up, seemingly puzzled at the machine flhying over her

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/cor ... a-2019ncov

[mikeh]

Question for the knowledgeable...

When the WHO, in their situation reports, give separate figures for "Confirmed" and "Suspected" cases - presumably the "Suspected" cases are in addition to the "Confirmed" ones? E.g.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source ... 0-ncov.pdf

Yep they're separate, so add together for the complete picture of how many people are of interest.

[bob sterman]

Latest paper in The Lancet...

Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study

https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/articl ... orecasting

On the present trajectory, 2019-nCoV could be about to become a global epidemic in the absence of mitigation. Nevertheless, it might still be possible to secure containment of the spread of infection such that initial imported seeding cases or even early local transmission does not lead to a large epidemic in locations outside Wuhan. To possibly succeed, substantial, even draconian measures that limit population mobility should be seriously and immediately considered in affected areas, as should strategies to drastically reduce within-population contact rates through cancellation of mass gatherings, school closures, and instituting work-from-home arrangements, for example.

When clusters of cases start appearing in the UK - will the authorities bite the bullet and do this?

[lpm]

All this stuff is marvelously class-biased.

The working classes have to go to work (to provide essential services). The rest "work from home".

[gosling]

TOOLS FOR CORONAVIRUS RESEARCHERS

• Springer Nature has joined others in making papers relevant to the outbreak free to read and emphasizing that it embraces preprints and early data-sharing.
• Elsevier has done a similar thing, and The Lancet’s collection is here.
• Wiley’s collection of free articles is here.
• The New England Journal of Medicine gathers its resources here and The BMJ’s collection is here.
• Manuscript-editing service AJE is offering free English language editing and translation for articles related to the coronavirus.
• Chinese journal database Chongqing VIP Information has opened its website to readers for free.

Many of the above, and others, have signed a joint statement, sent out by the health charity Wellcome, committing to work together to ensure that research findings and data relevant to the new coronavirus are shared rapidly and openly.