COVID-19

[Opti]

Here, come monday, you park in the supermarket, get your ticket, wait your turn to go into the shop and then shop with plenty of personal space. Nice. Unless you go there to meet a potential partner.
Me, I prefer the nearly empty experience.
I'll let y'all know how it works out. I guarantee I won't pull

[jimbob]

And, this is something that has been pissing me off a bit, and given a few recent posts in this thread, I'm going to say it now

We talked upthread about the social side of the outbreak, for example the elderly home alone, anxiety, loneliness and things like that.
As well as the behavioural science input into CMO policy being so important to mitigate that, the social side of the general public is important in this outbreak. You don't just shut down people's lives and say "screw them, put up with it". People are stressed, scared, uncertain.

And people, including small numbers on this forum, have been dismissive of that.

To those people - stop it. Wind your necks in. People's feelings are important. Another thread for solidarity reasons sounds like a good idea to me (though happy to take guidance from mods and those who were involved in the similar thread on the old forum).

A small starter on that - Dr Petra is worth following on twitter, see this thread from today as an example https://twitter.com/DrPetra/status/1238796429709148160 . Online support is available, albeit sometimes hard to see through the noise.

I was very specific in concentrating on the mass gatherings for that reason. And with appropriate support for those who were self-isolating or whose businesses are affected.

You need to send a message that it is serious and our behaviours need to change, but you also need to mitigate against the effects on those who are going to be disproportionately affected. For example those in the entertainment/events/tourism industry that will have sudden business loss.

Italy's mortgage holiday is probably going to be needed here too.

If a significant proportion of the population are working from home - it's going to feel pretty weird being one of those who can't. I hope those get support too.

[Woodchopper]

And we talked upthread a little bit about impact on NHS workforce if schools closed

On that, up here the government has organized childcare for all healthcare personnel ETA after having closed all the schools and kindergartens. That seems to be a good compromise between preventing infection spreading and allowing the parents to get to work in the hospitals.

That sounds like a good policy.

From a distance, Scandinavians seem to have childcare and schooling pretty sorted, compared to many other countries.

Yes, local authorities are required to provide childcare for all preschool children above one year old. So the infrastructure is already available.

As mentioned earlier, it seems that some countries are better able to cope with shutdowns than others.

[Bird on a Fire]

Heard what I thought was a bunch of horses outside. Like, the actual Apocalypse upon us.

In fact, about 25% of people in the apartments around me were on their balconies or leaning out of windows applauding.

I later learned from a neighbour that they were applauding the staff of the national health service here, which I thought was nice. Must have been a coordinated thing on the news.

There's a flashmob for you.

[headshot]

Thanks mikeh.

My response to this has taken me by surprise, but this sort of event has been something that’s preyed in my mind for decades. It’s one of my fears, and I’m seeing it play out before my eyes.

Given my business has been so fundamentally affected, it’s all proving to be Quite A Lot To Cope With.

On that subject, MODS: I’ve started a Gofundme to try and keep my business afloat. Do you mind if I start a thread somewhere so I can ask for donations?

[sTeamTraen]

Heard what I thought was a bunch of horses outside. Like, the actual Apocalypse upon us.

In fact, about 25% of people in the apartments around me were on their balconies or leaning out of windows applauding.

I later learned from a neighbour that they were applauding the staff of the national health service here, which I thought was nice. Must have been a coordinated thing on the news.

There's a flashmob for you.

Same in Spain (I think you're in Portugal?). I was in my kitchen at the back of the flat here in Palma and could here the clapping (and the dogs barking).

[lpm]

The underlying disagreement, mikeh, is whether to view this from normal, with nudges and changes, or whether to start from a blank sheet.

Your school closing thing is a good illustration. That's normalcy, adjusted for the impact of a school closure. It outlines the impact on parents and the economy from mothers unable to work. But does any of that apply today?

For example, that study would have said: this person working as cabin crew will have to cancel her shift with a negative impact of X. But in pandemic world, she's not working shifts for the next three months because all flights have ended. I have low confidence any of this modelling of economic impacts still applies.

The alternative is to accept a totally transformed world and start from there, rather than nudging from normal. Start again. Do the Norway thing of turning schools into child care for healthcare workers. Create a new program for children in poverty who need lunches.

For the economy, in crises it is possible to switch quickly to command and control. Not adjusting normal, but doing a quantum leap to different orbits. Car factories make planes. Ration books replace the marketplace. People are made to do different jobs. In my opinion, this is now far better than attempting to prolong a normal economy. Millions are unable to work because demand has vanished - so redeploy at attractive wages to emergency govt jobs.

The social side is another example. How can we possibly cling to slightly tweaked normality when over 70s are to be isolated till July? This isn't an adjustment to behaviours, suitable for modelling and psychologist nudging. It's essential to see it as a transformed world - and start from scratch on social care for 10 million people when zero of the normal care can now be done.

People are stressed, scared and uncertain. And I dispute that they want normality to continue in some adjusted form. I think people want transformation right now. They want to hear about completely different plans for health, social activities and provision of essentials.

For example, after 9-11 there was a study on how people viewed new security measures. They wanted to be patted down and given security theatre, and were more anxious if old normal security was used.

The evidence suggests the same applies now. I think making nudges to normality increases the fear and uncertainty. It doesn't seem right to carry on with pubs open while the elderly are quarantined. Parents don't want the normality of the kids going to school right now. I would suggest that is the govt approach of "business as usual except for adjustments" is causing more anxiety than sudden transformational changes elsewhere that create community blitz spirit.

The evidence will come from what people actually decide to do. I don't think many parents will send children to school after Wednesday. The policy of nudging behaviours is failing because the public are voting with their feet and unilaterally ending events.

My argument is we shouldn't mitigate the social stuff with behavioural science - we should recognise it has fundamentally transformed and deal directly with the new reality.

[Bird on a Fire]

That's also a great post, lpm. I think I agree with it. The Portuguese aren't natural rule-followers but people seem to have embraced this new regime rapidly.

(I'm not paid to say this) Have you considered posting somewhere like medium to reach a wider audience?

[Bird on a Fire]

Heard what I thought was a bunch of horses outside. Like, the actual Apocalypse upon us.

In fact, about 25% of people in the apartments around me were on their balconies or leaning out of windows applauding.

I later learned from a neighbour that they were applauding the staff of the national health service here, which I thought was nice. Must have been a coordinated thing on the news.

There's a flashmob for you.

Same in Spain (I think you're in Portugal?). I was in my kitchen at the back of the flat here in Palma and could here the clapping (and the dogs barking).

yep, I'm just south from Lisbon.

According to Facebook, there were outbursts of applause and song in Portugal, Spain and Italy at least.

I was in Palma a year ago for a course at UIB in Esporles. Very nice place (and the course was great too). With bonus points that my automatic "bom dia" is also passable Catalan.

[mikeh]

I will say that, for now, it's probably worth taking lpm's posts with a very large pinch of salt. They do post some interesting and challenging views, some nice takes, different angles. I've found that useful on occasions, it's forced me to think differently. Good stuff.

But lpm very clearly lacks a decent understanding of the very important nuances of the situation. They also have devoted a lot of time and are posting a huge amount on this topic (or seems to be, happy to be correct if I'm wrong). They also refuse to acknowledge when their challenges are answered and the evidence base is not as they first thought.

So, @ everyone reading this-

As ever and even more important here - do be careful and cautious with what views you absorb when reading about the coronavirus outbreak. Whether or not you buy my take on things, that's up to you. I won't be offended if you don't. But, be particularly wary of those with strong opinions and no obvious expertise or citing of the relevant evidence base to back it up. It's not helpful.

And with that, I bid you all good night.

[Bird on a Fire]

On that subject, MODS: I’ve started a Gofundme to try and keep my business afloat. Do you mind if I start a thread somewhere so I can ask for donations?

I personally don't see any reason why not, but have raised it with the others to check. Feel free to go ahead, we can always delete it if I've misled you!

On a related note - if you want to bring something to mods' attention, do feel free to report your own post, and then it'll pop up as a notification for us. Just because some threads are moving fast and we might not be up to date everywhere. We won't mind even if it's a little thing

[Pucksoppet]

Are we supposed to be social distancing now. I am confused. I have no symptoms and do not need to self isolate. I work for the NHS and so need to be in more than ever, in fact I cancelled my annual leave. I feel I should be supporting my local businesses while I can. Should I only be going out for essentials or is visiting a restaurant okay

Follow the advice published by your bit of the NHS, and in the absence of that, the national advice. From the POV of reducing the likelihood of you being infected, social distancing together with basic infection control techniques (like handwashing) is most likely a good idea.

As for supporting your local restaurant, I have no idea what is best. If you eat at home instead, you could, perhaps, send the restaurant the difference in cost between your home-meal and what you would have spent with them.

[Opti]

Sleep tight.

[Bird on a Fire]

Are we supposed to be social distancing now. I am confused. I have no symptoms and do not need to self isolate. I work for the NHS and so need to be in more than ever, in fact I cancelled my annual leave. I feel I should be supporting my local businesses while I can. Should I only be going out for essentials or is visiting a restaurant okay

Follow the advice published by your bit of the NHS, and in the absence of that, the national advice. From the POV of reducing the likelihood of you being infected, social distancing together with basic infection control techniques (like handwashing) is most likely a good idea.

As for supporting your local restaurant, I have no idea what is best. If you eat at home instead, you could, perhaps, send the restaurant the difference in cost between your home-meal and what you would have spent with them.

Getting a takeaway from the restaurant could also work - seems to be quite common here.

[sTeamTraen]

This just posted by someone on Facebook who appears to believe it. Is it a realistic interpretation of the UK government's plans? It would appear to require social engineering on a scale that even China might well balk at.

The UK plan is excellent for the UK. And I am going to try and fill in the gaps from Boris plan to explain it
His plan is to segregate all vulnerable people (older, ill and at risk) let’s call this group A
Anyone looking after the older,ill and at risk can be group B
The general population generally healthy can be group C
Group C needs to go about it’s business keeping the country moving kids at school us at work
Group B looks after group A and avoids contact with C
Group C is allowed to contract the virus and because it’s generally healthy it can cope with it better than group A
Group A and B are almost self isolating without the virus to avoid putting strain on the NHS and reducing the risk of getting the virus and then needing the NHS
Group C (the generally healthy) go through the cycle of contracting the virus self isolating and being looked after by healthy family members, friends and the local community
Anyone who has complications gets looked after by the NHS while groups A and B are kept away The NHS are not strained by A and B while its looking after complicated cases in C
As group C comes full circle and recovers it divides in to groups that take group B’s position looking after group A allowing group B to go though the cycle
With B and C though the cycle
A is free to have NHS to itself because B and C are now clear from illness and infection and hopefully have a degree of immunity from getting it again this season.
Hope this helps those that are worried or not sure of the plan
Everyone has a job to do for the above to work
Big love to all stay safe and look after each other
Please feel free to share.
Here is also a link which demonstrates visually and will hopefully help people who have not a clue what they are talking about to understand the action the UK is taking and why it is imperative that it is timed perfectly and not just to coincide with Spain or Italy or any other nation.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nl6tTwxzC ... e=youtu.be

[lpm]

I'm happy to take feedback on what you think I'm getting wrong, mikeh, or where my approach is wrong. But I'm not saying anything that much different to WHO or statements by medical experts in other countries. There seems to be a consensus that the UK approach is high risk, though potentially paying off in later waves of the pandemic.

[badger]

Is it a realistic interpretation of the UK government's plans?

Edit...

Group A and B are almost self isolating without the virus to avoid putting strain on the NHS

But that's not the plan, or remotely discernable from latest advice (unless I've missed something), so I think the answer is no.

[headshot]

On that subject, MODS: I’ve started a Gofundme to try and keep my business afloat. Do you mind if I start a thread somewhere so I can ask for donations?

I personally don't see any reason why not, but have raised it with the others to check. Feel free to go ahead, we can always delete it if I've misled you!

Thanks! See here: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=1005&p=22977#p22977

[jimbob]

I liked this article from the WaPo showing simple simulations of the effects of different social distancing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... simulator/

Although it's definitely treating humans as gas molecules.

[gosling]

Interesting models in the Washington Post

Obviously simplified and doesn't account for deaths, but suggests that social distancing could be more effective than enforced quarantine.

ETA: Damn, ninja'd by jimbob

[JellyandJackson]

Very small thing in the scheme of things, but our once every 5 years holiday to the Canary Islands (would have been next month) is off.

[shpalman]

health secretary Matt Hancock... confirmed that the government is set to ask, at some point in the coming weeks, over-70s to self-isolate for months at some point in the UK

[sTeamTraen]

Is it a realistic interpretation of the UK government's plans?

Edit...

Group A and B are almost self isolating without the virus to avoid putting strain on the NHS

But that's not the plan, or remotely discernable from latest advice (unless I've missed something), so I think the answer is no.

After I posted the above I asked the poster if there were going to be separate pubs, Nandos, and Sainsburys for each group, and if people would be wearing Rimmer-style letters on their foreheads. I got accused of being a Jeremy Corbyn supporter.

You can spot government supporters quite easily in these debates as they all wheel out the "intervention fatigue" argument (the key bit of behavioural science that very few of the behavioural scientists I know believe in). This guy on Facebook was one such. I have a yet to find a behavioural scientist who is convinced of the evidence for this. It would be both tragic and ironic if flawed social psychology research were to kill thousands of people, when one of the arguments sometimes used to not -quite-justify bad research practices is "well, at least nobody dies if they get it wrong, unlike say medical research".

I also wonder how the government squares not acting now with the idea of isolating the elderly for 4 months. Apparently the elderly are considered to have no agency in this regard and happy to be treated like demented 90 year olds in nursing homes. If they continue on this path, the Tories had better hope that many of the elderly do in fact die, because then they will only have the effect of an abstention at the next election, rather than a vote against.

[shpalman]

health secretary Matt Hancock... confirmed that the government is set to ask, at some point in the coming weeks, over-70s to self-isolate for months at some point in the UK

more on that

[gosling]

health secretary Matt Hancock... confirmed that the government is set to ask, at some point in the coming weeks, over-70s to self-isolate for months at some point in the UK

more on that

Can't see my 73-year-old mother doing that, or even her 80-year-old brother and sister-in-law.