Page 57 of 258
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:35 pm
by Gentleman Jim
Rich H wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:03 pm
Just went to do my monthly shop in Sainsbury's at Pepper Hill which is quite a large one. Most of the tinned food aisle was empty, all of the crisps had gone (although they were starting to restock that), all of the toiler paper had gone, nearly all eggs gone, the pet food aisle was about two thirds empty and (bizarrely) the shelves holding the wine boxes were almost empty.
Daughter works in Superdrug, they had someone i today asking if they could use Femfresh instead of hand sanitizer.
People are insane.
Just been there - it's even worse now
No washing up liquid; hardly any frozen food of any type etc; no biscuits. I could go on
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:01 pm
by raven
lpm wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:40 am
No policy is going to be correct unless it starts with (a) we must build massive healthcare capacity and (b) it's going to take time to get that capacity. Everything else must follow from that.
To be fair to the government, Hancock spend a chunk of his interview on Marr this morning talking about upping supplies of ventilators (by converting car and other factories to make them, not so sure about that myself but good if it happens); cancelling some elective ops and converting operating theatres to ICUs because they've got oxygen already; re-training medics from other areas so they can supervise patients on ventilators; the possibility of using hotels as extra quarantine/wards.
Otoh, he also looked a little frazzled.
Out in the real world, people are panicking. The local Sainsburys had to open at 10 am today because the people queuing outside half an hour before it usually opens were getting agitated. We were there about 11:30am. No toilet paper. No soap, and suspisciously low on shower gel(bought to use as soap?) Only own brand paracetamol, but at least they had that.Very little pasta, or rice. Low on peanut butter. Low on multipacks of tinned tuna, and canned soup. Food bank box almost empty when it's usually pretty full of donations too, which sucks. But still plenty of everything else, so it seems like panic buying is leading to more panic buying of specific random things that don't make much sense and otherwise supply chains are still functioning fine.
Most worrying to my mind is that there are no online delivery slots left at all in my area. So unless Sainsburys have held some back for the vulnerable, f.ck knows how anyone self-isolating is meant to get food in.
ETA: Anyone else get an email from a supermarket chain pleading with them to be responsible this morning? There's an open letter to customers too apparently:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51883440
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:02 pm
by headshot
I just got some regular supplies at a local coop.
Everything seemed reasonably well stocked. Toilet paper and anti-bac spray not present. No-one was being ridiculous.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:11 pm
by raven
The co-op here is low on soap and toilet paper, but otherwise ok. Same at the Tescos extra. Bought soap in our little local DIY shop this week. They have everything - you could reinact the four candles sketch in there.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:14 pm
by lpm
I think today's UK numbers will be the first to materially show the reduction in testing. People ill at home from Friday onwards are not being tested, would probably have started to show in figures today.
It's all models from here on.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:45 pm
by bagpuss
Ocado has shut down their app and is closed to new customers. I thought I'd just go and edit the order I already have for next Saturday and got this.
Think I'll be doing this week's order in the early mornings.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:26 pm
by badger
Apologies if done before - I've not had a chance to look through all of this but here's an interesting collation of papers that feed into policy in one twitter thread. May be interesting to some. I'll be getting to it once I do some flipping work.
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/stat ... 7824764930
edspell
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:41 pm
by Woodchopper
lpm wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:14 pm
I think today's UK numbers will be the first to materially show the reduction in testing. People ill at home from Friday onwards are not being tested, would probably have started to show in figures today.
It's all models from here on.
There’s still the mortality rate, and it may be possible to get some numbers on hospital admissions.
The problem is that the mortality rate will lag a week or two behind the number of infections.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:53 pm
by purplehaze
In my local shops I got some cleaner with bleach, yeast, soap and because I have enough, I didn't touch the plenty supply of toilet rolls - they were double the price though.
My very local corner shop had a fusion 2kg bag of mixed rice - for £2 and all the chocolate I could ever want. What's not to like!
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:06 pm
by Grumble
We normally get our shopping online - and pay Morrison’s monthly for this - but we can’t get a slot for more than 7 days. Normally it’s fine to get a slot about 3 days before. I’m sure the panic buying will die down soon when those so inclined have done their panicking. I hope so anyway, I’m going to have to go to the shops physically before we run out of stuff.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:33 pm
by shpalman
Some results on how and when a case is most contagious.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/cor ... k-symptoms
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:10 pm
by bjn
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:12 pm
by Pucksoppet
Gentleman Jim wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:35 pm
Just been there - it's even worse now
No washing up liquid; hardly any frozen food of any type etc; no biscuits. I could go on
No biscuits!!! I hardly dare ask...what about cake?
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:18 pm
by AMS
Interesting that only two of the nine even developed a fever. Also, evidence that people become much less infectious once their antibody response kicks in - even if the viral RNA is still.l detectable.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:34 pm
by dyqik
Pucksoppet wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:12 pm
Gentleman Jim wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:35 pm
Just been there - it's even worse now
No washing up liquid; hardly any frozen food of any type etc; no biscuits. I could go on
No biscuits!!! I hardly dare ask...what about cake?
There's this one:
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:53 pm
by Pucksoppet
AMS wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:18 pm
Interesting that only two of the nine even developed a fever. Also, evidence that people become much less infectious once their antibody response kicks in - even if the viral RNA is still.l detectable.
Being significantly contagious before symptoms is a good argument for pre-emptive social distancing.
Trouble is, a lot of people in the social circle I am on the far distant edge of are not taking the 2 metre rule seriously. They have given up social hugs, air-kissing, and shaking hands, but once the Gods of Social Distancing have been sacrificed to, they move inside the 2-metre comfort zone and carry on as normal. Sigh.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:53 pm
by Pucksoppet
dyqik wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:34 pm
Pucksoppet wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:12 pm
Gentleman Jim wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:35 pm
Just been there - it's even worse now
No washing up liquid; hardly any frozen food of any type etc; no biscuits. I could go on
No biscuits!!! I hardly dare ask...what about cake?
There's this one:
Excellent!
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:16 pm
by Rich H
Daughter has now been exposed - somebody who knowingly had it went into the shop a few days ago. She wasn't near to the person, but it's still a worry.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:29 pm
by Vertigowooyay
Gov expecting it to be with us till Spring 2021 with 80% infection
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... SApp_Other
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:48 pm
by Grumble
I have a mild cough and so do a couple of my kids. Not continuous, not as bad as many other coughs I have known, but a cough nevertheless. The advice relates to a continuous cough and/or fever, which we haven’t got, so I’m not panicking. But every time I cough (sometimes my coughs are literally hours apart) I feel worried, and when my children cough even more so.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:49 pm
by shpalman
Rich H wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:16 pm
somebody who knowingly had it went into the shop a few days ago
A person doing that here would face up to 12 years in prison.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:00 pm
by Rich H
shpalman wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:49 pm
Rich H wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:16 pm
somebody who knowingly had it went into the shop a few days ago
A person doing that here would face up to 12 years in prison.
I was thinking there ought to be penalties for it.
I'm trying to decide if I could still see her on her birthday (this Friday) and simply self isolate afterwards; I don't need to physically be in the office and I'm in good health and if I get it, highly unlikely to be hospital material. But then again, what if I prove to be more susceptible and end up there anyway taking up a bed unnecessarily? Ugh.
Given the timescales involved, we should know by mid week if she has it or not.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:14 pm
by jimbob
lpm wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:40 am
lpm wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:11 am
I’ll have a go at writing my own version of that. I know my sort of simplifications, like this YouTube, can be criticised as being too Malcolm Gladwell, but sometimes these kinds of things can give clarity.
Imagine for a moment Covid isn’t one disease. Instead there are two variants circulating simultaneously – Covid-1% and Covid-4%. They are identical in every way except their Case Fatality Rate.
You assume everyone in your population is going to get one or other of the two strains. It can’t be stopped, it’s going to happen over the next 365 days. But imagine there’s a strong seasonal variation in infection rates: people are currently getting Covid-1%, then will catch Covid-4% from 1 April to 30 September, then Covid-1% from 1 October onwards.
In this imaginary scenario, if you care about lives clearly you want as many people as possible to catch the Covid-1% variant and will desperately do everything possible to stop people catching Covid-4%. The difference could be well over a million lives lost.
In Wuhan they caught Covid-4%, in the rest of China Covid-1%. In Lombardy they have Covid-4%, in the rest of Italy Covid-1%.
Obviously the difference between the two strains is healthcare. Where the system can cope, people die of Covid-1%. When the health service is overwhelmed, people die of Covid-4%.
So what happens on 1 October onwards to make it Covid-1%? Hospitals and ventilators and all other necessary health resources. A huge national effort sees the building of not 40 new hospitals, but 400. Not an increase in ventilators from 5,000 to 10,000, but to 100,000. An effort to get every possible resource in place, knowing every day’s delay means another day’s worth of Covid-4% fatalities instead of Covid-1%
And in the meantime? Delay, delay, delay. Apply the maximum pressure now because Covid-4% is two weeks away. Buy time wherever possible, hindering the Covid-4% enemy in our retreat, buying time to switch it into Covid-1%.
This is the difference between the UK and the rest of Europe. The UK is concerned about multiple waves, the exponential curves re-igniting in Italy and Spain when lockdowns end. Which is a massive problem. You need to slam down new waves multiple times. But each lockdown generates the time and space to get resources in place for the waves that’ll hit in a few months – and those resources can make the waves from October onwards Covid-1% waves.
The UK is choosing to allow higher infection rates now. For example requiring people with mild Covid illness to self-isolate for 7 days only, when infectiousness likely lingers on for a further 7 days after that. They accept this will increase infection rates a little, but see that as worth it for the normality to the economy and ways of life – and crucially the hope that we will then see lower subsequent waves later in the year. When Italy and Spain are struggling with re-ignition, we will be on lower exponential pathways due to more people with acquired immunity.
The flaw is that higher now, in return for much lower later, means a higher case load now with an under-resourced health service – hence the “higher now” is all Covid-4%. While the “lower later” benefits will be seen in the autumn or next winter – when it could have been Covid-1%.
No policy is going to be correct unless it starts with (a) we must build massive healthcare capacity and (b) it's going to take time to get that capacity. Everything else must follow from that.
This is pretty much my thinking, not only do you get more time for the ramp up of resources but you potentially find treatments that have some effect
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:20 pm
by OneOffDave
I've not been able to lay in stocks of anything as I've been living in hotels most of the last few weeks and will be at for least 4 nights a week for the foreseeable future. It will be interesting to how busy the train into London is tomorrow
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:44 pm
by bjn
The British Society of Immunologists are not impressed by the government's response and want to models/data used to make their decisions released.
Found via a post on facefriend by legion.
Think I'll be doing this week's order in the early mornings.