Scrutable

Third case in the UK. Not much known at the moment, other than its imported rather than transmitted within the UK
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cmo- ... in-england

jimbob wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:55 am

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

Is this a reputable source?

late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker," showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.

Weeellll, it's from Taiwan, which is not known for being particularly sympathetic to China. That quote itself is not the worst of the propaganda coming out of Tencent, which is also claiming 25k deaths. There's no evidence for that at all.

However, like a lot of untruths, it's got a grain of truth at its centre. It's almost certain that there are a lot more cases of 2019-nCoV than the Chinese have confirmed, not because they are necessarily covering anything up but because firstly it looks like it does present very mild symptoms in some people and those people will not have gone to seek medical help, and secondly there is not an infinite supply of testing kits. There have already been reports that China's only testing severe cases because they just don't have the resources to test everyone.

I've also seen reports on Twitter that the reason we've seen no cases in Africa is that they're not testing because they don't have the resources or kits.

So we should reasonably expect the number of infections to be very much higher than reported, but there's no reason to believe at this point that the number of deaths is substantially higher than reported.

There is a lot of anti-Chinese racism in much of the commentary on the coronavirus, but this something different, intra-Chinese politics. The province of Taiwan is never going to accept mainland statistics or analysis on these virus matters. Undoubtedly the current statistics are going to reflect under reporting because of the logistical difficulties of coping with this epidemic, but malicious ness should not be assumed. The Chinese are doing the best they can under extremely difficult conditions.

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:33 pm

There is a lot of anti-Chinese racism in much of the commentary on the coronavirus, but this something different, intra-Chinese politics. The province of Taiwan is never going to accept mainland statistics or analysis on these virus matters. Undoubtedly the current statistics are going to reflect under reporting because of the logistical difficulties of coping with this epidemic, but malicious ness should not be assumed. The Chinese are doing the best they can under extremely difficult conditions.

It may be my bubble, but I'm not getting any anti-Chinese racism in what I'm reading.
I'm getting comments about the nature of the regime, and the initial reluctance of the system to acknowledge the problem, but that's not racism (not as I would call it, anyway).

mikeh wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 06, 2020 1:23 pm

Third case in the UK. Not much known at the moment, other than its imported rather than transmitted within the UK
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cmo- ... in-england

... but not imported from China, imported from another Asian country.

Which implies it won't be long till people with it arrive from USA or Australia or France, magnifying the scale of identification problem.

Gfamily wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:48 pm

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:33 pm

There is a lot of anti-Chinese racism in much of the commentary on the coronavirus, but this something different, intra-Chinese politics. The province of Taiwan is never going to accept mainland statistics or analysis on these virus matters. Undoubtedly the current statistics are going to reflect under reporting because of the logistical difficulties of coping with this epidemic, but malicious ness should not be assumed. The Chinese are doing the best they can under extremely difficult conditions.

It may be my bubble, but I'm not getting any anti-Chinese racism in what I'm reading.
I'm getting comments about the nature of the regime, and the initial reluctance of the system to acknowledge the problem, but that's not racism (not as I would call it, anyway).

Indeed. I understand there is similar skepticism about the mainland statistics and management of the situation from current and former Hong Kong residents.

nefibach wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:26 pm

I've also seen reports on Twitter that the reason we've seen no cases in Africa is that they're not testing because they don't have the resources or kits.

Have been at least a couple of hundred tests done in Africa so far, just that countries had to chuck their samples at labs in South Africa and (I think (Senegal). So time consuming and expensive. WHO were ramping up the diagnostic capacity so a load more African countries now have access to do the tests without sending them abroad.

But yeah, testing on a small scale, so who knows what's in Africa at the moment.

Jeez, apparently the China whistleblower doctor who had to sign an apology for being anti-social has died of it.

bob sterman wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:05 pm

Gfamily wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:48 pm

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:33 pm

There is a lot of anti-Chinese racism in much of the commentary on the coronavirus, but this something different, intra-Chinese politics. The province of Taiwan is never going to accept mainland statistics or analysis on these virus matters. Undoubtedly the current statistics are going to reflect under reporting because of the logistical difficulties of coping with this epidemic, but malicious ness should not be assumed. The Chinese are doing the best they can under extremely difficult conditions.

It may be my bubble, but I'm not getting any anti-Chinese racism in what I'm reading.
I'm getting comments about the nature of the regime, and the initial reluctance of the system to acknowledge the problem, but that's not racism (not as I would call it, anyway).

Indeed. I understand there is similar skepticism about the mainland statistics and management of the situation from current and former Hong Kong residents.

Certainly the view from those people I know from Mainland China too.

mikeh wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:12 pm

nefibach wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:26 pm

I've also seen reports on Twitter that the reason we've seen no cases in Africa is that they're not testing because they don't have the resources or kits.

Have been at least a couple of hundred tests done in Africa so far, just that countries had to chuck their samples at labs in South Africa and (I think (Senegal). So time consuming and expensive. WHO were ramping up the diagnostic capacity so a load more African countries now have access to do the tests without sending them abroad.

But yeah, testing on a small scale, so who knows what's in Africa at the moment.

There are major Chinese commercial investments in Africa. So people will have been flying back and forth. The ability of African states to respond to an epidemic is much less than in China or developed states.

lpm wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:45 pm

Jeez, apparently the China whistleblower doctor who had to sign an apology for being anti-social has died of it.

Maybe not quite dead
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51403795

"I'm not dead"

"He says he's not dead"

Etc...

Confirmed dead by the hospital.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... SApp_Other

The coronacruise ship is not a fun place to be. 61 confirmed cases thus far.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51409800

Can we start panicking now?

Boustrophedon wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:14 am

Can we start panicking preparing now?

Yes

Is it time to return to my favourite rant?

End handshakes for ever.

There's no better way to catch diseases from strangers. I accept I'm likely to catch a cold if family in the same house are ill - but it's really f.cking annoying I'm expected to catch a cold from handshakes. If I die from coronavirus after catching it from from a tedious sales person who is subjecting me to a pointless business meeting I'm going to be really pissed off.

On another forum I think I concluded the Nazi salute was safe, but possibly not appropriate, while the Roman fist over the heart salute was the best solution.

How does it compare, germwise, to that weird kiss greeting that continentals do?

FWIW I refused to shake some peoples' hands the other day precisely because I was coldy.

On a related point, it would appear that it's economic effects (Sony closing factories and so forth) may soon start to bite - shortage of Apple phones!

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:23 pm

How does it compare, germwise, to that weird kiss greeting that continentals do?

Please don't take that away from me.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:23 pm

How does it compare, germwise, to that weird kiss greeting that continentals do?

FWIW I refused to shake some peoples' hands the other day precisely because I was coldy.

How do you lot greet each other in the Overlord Penthouse of a morning? I've got some ideas in my head about that, which could probably be made into a feature film,

Anyway, if you don't like handshakes, then elbow bump your way around town. Also allows for a snide dig in the ribs for people you are forced to greet but don't like.

Boustrophedon wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:14 am

Can we start panicking now?

Let's panic later

bob sterman wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:31 am

Boustrophedon wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:14 am

Can we start panicking preparing now?

Yes

Not many of those hand sanitiser things left on Amazon.

If the outbreak of plague causes disruption to the food supply we'll just have to eat our Brexit stashes.

lpm wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:35 pm

Not many of those hand sanitiser things left on Amazon.

Need to find a way to turn readily available alcohol (vodka, gin, brandy etc) into a gel like substance to rub on your hands!

Any ideas???