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Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:48 pm
by El Pollo Diablo
There might not be a deaths update today, says Chris Smyth. Which will be interesting. So, is the number for yesterday presumably only an as yet unknown portion of the day?

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:42 pm
by dyqik
greyspoke wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:08 am
So the results of tests of the elements of the code should be published? Which means at least the structure of the elements needs to be published otherwise the test outcomes will not mean that much?
Not published, necessarily. But there should be a unit testing framework in place that is run on the components before the system is tested or used.

Think of them like the ECU checks and tire pressure warnings on a car - they test components. If those lights are on, you fail the MOT (or local equivalent here), before they test anything.

What they are for is to detect subtle bugs introduced by work on subsystems of the code that don't prevent the whole thing running.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:42 pm
by dyqik
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:50 am
dyqik wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:06 am
greyspoke wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:39 pm
Well that Prof Ferguson has a slightly optimistic prediction.

But is getting some flack on twitter for not open-sourcing his code - "I wrote the code (thousands of lines of undocumented C) 13+ years ago to model flu pandemics..."

I assume that his publications on the topic gave the underlying algorithms but not the actual code.
Any publications based on undocumented and unreviewed code without unit tests should probably be retracted as unrepeatable and unverifiable. You might as well use instruments with no calibration or traceability to standards.
That's most of them, then. Publishing code is really quite a recent phenomenon (and it still isn't standard practice, nor is code necessarily reviewed).
Yes. It's like publishing results from a novel technique without a methods section or establishing that the technique matches accepted results.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:58 pm
by JQH
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:48 pm
There might not be a deaths update today, says Chris Smyth. Which will be interesting. So, is the number for yesterday presumably only an as yet unknown portion of the day?
If they want the populace to co-operate with measures to stop the spread of the virus, understating the number of deaths or not reporting them would be stupid and counterproductive ...


Oh.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:05 pm
by EACLucifer
We need to be documenting this as much as possible, the dithering, the delays, the lies, cooking the books, etc.

It'll be easy for this to all become a blur in the memory, and this government must be held to account for what they have done, and what they have failed to do.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:10 pm
by lpm
A Conservative government held to account?

I'm loving your optimism but reality is several miles off, beckoning you to come home to it.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:17 pm
by greyspoke

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:44 pm
by plodder
lpm wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:10 pm
A Conservative government held to account?

I'm loving your optimism but reality is several miles off, beckoning you to come home to it.
Yes. Not a hope. See every contentious public inquiry since, I dunno, earliest I can think of is bl..dy Sunday, or maybe Hillsborough, or cash for questions? The thing with the duck house and the moat? Grenfell? The Iraq War? Phone hacking? The Westland Affair? We live in a cuntaucracy.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:49 pm
by EACLucifer
I'm sure patting yourselves on the back and feeling smug about how cynical you are is really going to help. We're in a crisis - surely the most important thing to do is snipe at people trying to actually do something to help!

A lot of this is going to get lost in a blur of collective memory. It's worth keeping track of the lies and failures so that people can be reminded of them when it matters, and whether it works or not, it's got more chance of working than performative mistaking-cyncism-for-cleverness ego-stroking.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:51 pm
by jimbob
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:49 pm
I'm sure patting yourselves on the back and feeling smug about how cynical you are is really going to help. We're in a crisis - surely the most important thing to do is snipe at people trying to actually do something to help!

A lot of this is going to get lost in a blur of collective memory. It's worth keeping track of the lies and failures so that people can be reminded of them when it matters, and whether it works or not, it's got more chance of working than performative mistaking-cyncism-for-cleverness ego-stroking.
There are probably going to be questions about the Dyson ventilator too.

Why do they have an order for an unproven design whilst established manufacturers don't?

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:01 pm
by EACLucifer
jimbob wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:51 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:49 pm
I'm sure patting yourselves on the back and feeling smug about how cynical you are is really going to help. We're in a crisis - surely the most important thing to do is snipe at people trying to actually do something to help!

A lot of this is going to get lost in a blur of collective memory. It's worth keeping track of the lies and failures so that people can be reminded of them when it matters, and whether it works or not, it's got more chance of working than performative mistaking-cyncism-for-cleverness ego-stroking.
There are probably going to be questions about the Dyson ventilator too.

Why do they have an order for an unproven design whilst established manufacturers don't?
Yeah, noticing a lot of attention being drawn to Dyson, JCB etc, which does not seem commensurate with their ability to deliver anything useful.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:08 pm
by Martin Y
jimbob wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:51 pm
There are probably going to be questions about the Dyson ventilator too.

Why do they have an order for an unproven design whilst established manufacturers don't?
Well, it'll be four times the price of an ordinary ventilator, but it'll look really great so you won't even notice at first that it's deafeningly loud.
All the other ventilator makers will be copying the styling and colours. Just you watch.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:11 pm
by lpm
jimbob wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:51 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:49 pm
I'm sure patting yourselves on the back and feeling smug about how cynical you are is really going to help. We're in a crisis - surely the most important thing to do is snipe at people trying to actually do something to help!

A lot of this is going to get lost in a blur of collective memory. It's worth keeping track of the lies and failures so that people can be reminded of them when it matters, and whether it works or not, it's got more chance of working than performative mistaking-cyncism-for-cleverness ego-stroking.
There are probably going to be questions about the Dyson ventilator too.

Why do they have an order for an unproven design whilst established manufacturers don't?
They don't have an order. That was a lie. Their design isn't approved, so no order has been placed yet. Be more cynical.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:18 pm
by lpm
f.ck, this is ludicrous from the police. Harassing people walking a dog in remote areas miles from other people. These people are not going against government guidelines.

https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status ... 1503882241

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:30 pm
by Bird on a Fire
lpm wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:18 pm
f.ck, this is ludicrous from the police. Harassing people walking a dog in remote areas miles from other people. These people are not going against government guidelines.

https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status ... 1503882241
I do have sympathy with folk wanting to get out for a walk somewhere away from other people. As long as they don't stop anywhere while driving to and from the Peak District, get into an traffic accident or hurt themselves (e.g. that couple taking selfies on the edge of a cliff) and need emergency services, they should be ok.

Certainly walking your dog in a National Park seems like far lower risk than, say, construction. Presumably dog-walkers aren't considered to be contributing enough to the economy.

(I saw some fun footage of the Brazilian police using their helicopters to throw sand on people sunbathing on the beach)

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:42 pm
by discovolante
Court hearings are all getting put back to July, glory be, goodbye summer holidays!

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:42 pm
by lpm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:30 pm
Certainly walking your dog in a National Park seems like far lower risk than, say, construction.
It's far lower risk than walking your dog in the local park.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:59 pm
by tenchboy
Martin Y wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:08 pm
jimbob wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:51 pm
There are probably going to be questions about the Dyson ventilator too.

Why do they have an order for an unproven design whilst established manufacturers don't?
Well, it'll be four times the price of an ordinary ventilator, but it'll look really great so you won't even notice at first that it's deafeningly loud.
All the other ventilator makers will be copying the styling and colours. Just you watch.
It's a plot, a scam, a conspiracy I tell you; a sop to soothe your expectations, a distraction to take your mind off the direness of the straits we're in.
I f I was wheeled into a room full of Dyson ventilators I think I w'd just get up* and say ok, don't bother, it's bin fun, so long...
Now. If they were made by Kenwood: massively over engineered, lasts for ever, built by engineers on the sly after sending all the 'designers' down the pub THERE w'd be a ventilator worth being hooked up to.

Spoiler:

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:07 pm
by El Pollo Diablo
kenwood is owned by Delonghi group I think. Still make good quality merch though.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:12 pm
by Martin Y
The single most pleasing thing about the Kenwood brand is discovering that it's a bloke called Ken Wood.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:22 pm
by science_fox
lpm wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:18 pm
f.ck, this is ludicrous from the police. Harassing people walking a dog in remote areas miles from other people. These people are not going against government guidelines.

https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status ... 1503882241
Yes they are. It is blatantly unnecessary travel. The issue is containment. Keeping virus hotspots local. From the cruise ship we are looking at 17 day viability. Even in non-ideal condtions its longer than expected: On styles, gates, bins, shops fuel stations. Each one an opportunity for virus to move from one town/city/hamlet/suburb to another.

Yes it's unprecedented restrictions. That's the time we're in. Stay home stay local.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:35 pm
by lpm
You seem to forget the virus needs another human to come along and meet it. The definition of remote is the lack of humans. The virus prefers the local park.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:39 pm
by jimbob
lpm wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:35 pm
You seem to forget the virus needs another human to come along and meet it. The definition of remote is the lack of humans. The virus prefers the local park.
Curbar Edge *is* a honeypot.

On a normal weekend, it's busier than most parks.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:39 pm
by shpalman
Well a few days ago in Italy it was "the number of new cases is going down" then it was "the number of new current positives has gone down" and now it's "no wait it's going up again".

It seems to me that the past few days actually look like a slow exponential increase. The doubling time is 9 days, which is at least a lot longer than the usual 2-3 days we had at the beginning, but still, it's increasing.

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Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:50 pm
by Blackcountryboy
lpm wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:35 pm
You seem to forget the virus needs another human to come along and meet it. The definition of remote is the lack of humans. The virus prefers the local park.
The instruction to avoid National Parks came after last weekend when vast crowds of visited.