Wuhan Coronavirus

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Gfamily
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Gfamily » Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:36 am

JQH wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:14 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:21 pm
.
China and especially Hubei and Wuhan is taking the brunt of this catastrophe and the rest of the world is remarkably un sympathetic, talking about eating bats, and quarantine and censorship and the CCP, like they deserved it, when people are dying. It 's been a stimulus for latent anti Chinese racism in the west

Criticism of the PRC regime =/= anti-Chinese racism.
Though this needs to be acknowledged...
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... s-outbreak
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Herainestold » Mon Feb 10, 2020 2:06 am

Gfamily wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:36 am
JQH wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:14 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:21 pm
.
China and especially Hubei and Wuhan is taking the brunt of this catastrophe and the rest of the world is remarkably un sympathetic, talking about eating bats, and quarantine and censorship and the CCP, like they deserved it, when people are dying. It 's been a stimulus for latent anti Chinese racism in the west

Criticism of the PRC regime =/= anti-Chinese racism.
Though this needs to be acknowledged...
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... s-outbreak
Welcome to Tory Britain.

By all means criticize the CCP when they deserve it, but give them credit when they earn it.

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Woodchopper
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:48 am

JAMA study on 138 hospitalized patients in Wuhan. Published 7 Feb, apologies if it’s already been posted: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2761044

This is the most worrying bit:
Of the infected health care workers, 31 (77.5%) worked on general wards, 7 (17.5%) in the emergency department, and 2 (5%) in the ICU. One patient in the current study presented with abdominal symptoms and was admitted to the surgical department. More than 10 health care workers in this department were presumed to have been infected by this patient.
Health care workers were presumably quite healthy before they were infected and if they need hospital treatment then the whole healthcare system will lose capacity.

From the article summary:
Results Of 138 hospitalized patients with NCIP, the median age was 56 years (interquartile range, 42-68; range, 22-92 years) and 75 (54.3%) were men. Hospital-associated transmission was suspected as the presumed mechanism of infection for affected health professionals (40 [29%]) and hospitalized patients (17 [12.3%]). Common symptoms included fever (136 [98.6%]), fatigue (96 [69.6%]), and dry cough (82 [59.4%]). Lymphopenia (lymphocyte count, 0.8 × 109/L [interquartile range {IQR}, 0.6-1.1]) occurred in 97 patients (70.3%), prolonged prothrombin time (13.0 seconds [IQR, 12.3-13.7]) in 80 patients (58%), and elevated lactate dehydrogenase (261 U/L [IQR, 182-403]) in 55 patients (39.9%). Chest computed tomographic scans showed bilateral patchy shadows or ground glass opacity in the lungs of all patients. Most patients received antiviral therapy (oseltamivir, 124 [89.9%]), and many received antibacterial therapy (moxifloxacin, 89 [64.4%]; ceftriaxone, 34 [24.6%]; azithromycin, 25 [18.1%]) and glucocorticoid therapy (62 [44.9%]). Thirty-six patients (26.1%) were transferred to the intensive care unit (ICU) because of complications, including acute respiratory distress syndrome (22 [61.1%]), arrhythmia (16 [44.4%]), and shock (11 [30.6%]). The median time from first symptom to dyspnea was 5.0 days, to hospital admission was 7.0 days, and to ARDS was 8.0 days. Patients treated in the ICU (n = 36), compared with patients not treated in the ICU (n = 102), were older (median age, 66 years vs 51 years), were more likely to have underlying comorbidities (26 [72.2%] vs 38 [37.3%]), and were more likely to have dyspnea (23 [63.9%] vs 20 [19.6%]), and anorexia (24 [66.7%] vs 31 [30.4%]). Of the 36 cases in the ICU, 4 (11.1%) received high-flow oxygen therapy, 15 (41.7%) received noninvasive ventilation, and 17 (47.2%) received invasive ventilation (4 were switched to extracorporeal membrane oxygenation). As of February 3, 47 patients (34.1%) were discharged and 6 died (overall mortality, 4.3%), but the remaining patients are still hospitalized. Among those discharged alive (n = 47), the median hospital stay was 10 days (IQR, 7.0-14.0).

OneOffDave
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by OneOffDave » Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:15 am

Using masks when you haven't been through fit testing can give a very false sense of security. Self isolation and social distancing are the most effective route of reducing transmission. The one thing that masks can do is they stop you touching your face holes with your hands which does help reduce spread as nCoV isn't truly airborne

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Boustrophedon » Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:29 am

From Asterix and the Chariot Race.

Image
...zoologically improbable and/or terrifying to small children.

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Woodchopper
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Feb 10, 2020 2:52 pm

Imperial college report
Summary Report 4
We present case fatality ratio (CFR) estimates for three strata of 2019-nCoV infections. For cases detected in Hubei, we estimate the CFR to be 18% (95% credible interval: 11%-81%). For cases detected in travellers outside mainland China, we obtain central estimates of the CFR in the range 1.2-5.6% depending on the statistical methods, with substantial uncertainty around these central values. Using estimates of underlying infection prevalence in Wuhan at the end of January derived from testing of passengers on repatriation flights to Japan and Germany, we adjusted the estimates of CFR from either the early epidemic in Hubei Province, or from cases reported outside mainland China, to obtain estimates of the overall CFR in all infections (asymptomatic or symptomatic) of approximately 1% (95% confidence interval 0.5%-4%). It is important to note that the differences in these estimates does not reflect underlying differences in disease severity between countries. CFRs seen in individual countries will vary depending on the sensitivity of different surveillance systems to detect cases of differing levels of severity and the clinical care offered to severely ill cases. All CFR estimates should be viewed cautiously at the current time as the sensitivity of surveillance of both deaths and cases in mainland China is unclear. Furthermore, all estimates rely on limited data on the typical time intervals from symptom onset to death or recovery which influences the CFR estimates.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-i ... ronavirus/

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by lpm » Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:00 am

Super-spreaders.

Because of something physical, because of their behaviours when coughing or washing hands, or because of personality?

The BBC has named and shamed the person who infected 11 people. Looks like an excessively gregarious extrovert to me (based on little more than glancing at his photo and letting my prejudices run free).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51459210

When it comes to quarantines, it makes sense to isolate extroverts, but let introverts get on with the job of getting everything done.
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calmooney
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by calmooney » Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:47 am

There's a nice new podcast from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine on viruses which covers the coronavirus epidemic, the latest episode has a long chat with Peter Piot (who think it'll likely hit pandemic status).
https://anchor.fm/lshtm

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by nefibach » Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:25 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:00 am
Super-spreaders.

Because of something physical, because of their behaviours when coughing or washing hands, or because of personality?

The BBC has named and shamed the person who infected 11 people. Looks like an excessively gregarious extrovert to me (based on little more than glancing at his photo and letting my prejudices run free).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51459210

When it comes to quarantines, it makes sense to isolate extroverts, but let introverts get on with the job of getting everything done.
I know you're being funny, but the responsible way to discuss this is using the frame of "superspreading events" not "superspreaders" as people. The UK businessman is no more at fault for having been infected with coronavirus than you are at fault if you catch a cold.

nefibach
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by nefibach » Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:32 pm

Somewhat worrying development from China - officials are now not counting anyone who has tested positive for 2019-nCoV, but who is not showing symptoms, in direct contravention of the WHO guidelines. This is going to reduce the number of confirmed cases, which is going to make it seem like things are improving when they aren't. Indeed, some provinces are now deducting such cases from their overall count.

Thread here: https://twitter.com/lwcalex/status/1226840055869632512
Over 100 cases have been deducted over the past 2 days. The concerning problem is that authorities do not disclose the no. of symptom-less infected patients after they count them separately. There will be no way of knowing the exact magnitude of the outbreak.
https://twitter.com/lwcalex/status/1226842601141071874

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lpm
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by lpm » Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:36 pm

nefibach wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:25 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:00 am
Super-spreaders.

Because of something physical, because of their behaviours when coughing or washing hands, or because of personality?

The BBC has named and shamed the person who infected 11 people. Looks like an excessively gregarious extrovert to me (based on little more than glancing at his photo and letting my prejudices run free).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51459210

When it comes to quarantines, it makes sense to isolate extroverts, but let introverts get on with the job of getting everything done.
I know you're being funny, but the responsible way to discuss this is using the frame of "superspreading events" not "superspreaders" as people. The UK businessman is no more at fault for having been infected with coronavirus than you are at fault if you catch a cold.
Obviously it's not someone's fault for catching it, but it could be someone's fault for spreading it - if it is related to behaviours.

If I can criticise someone for spreading a cold by going to work on the underground, shaking hands at meetings, sneezing without care, not washing hands - then why can't I criticise a super-spreader of the coronavirus for the same? It's absurd to describe it as "events" when events don't spread it, people do.
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nefibach
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by nefibach » Tue Feb 11, 2020 3:09 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:36 pm
nefibach wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:25 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:00 am
Super-spreaders.

Because of something physical, because of their behaviours when coughing or washing hands, or because of personality?

The BBC has named and shamed the person who infected 11 people. Looks like an excessively gregarious extrovert to me (based on little more than glancing at his photo and letting my prejudices run free).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51459210

When it comes to quarantines, it makes sense to isolate extroverts, but let introverts get on with the job of getting everything done.
I know you're being funny, but the responsible way to discuss this is using the frame of "superspreading events" not "superspreaders" as people. The UK businessman is no more at fault for having been infected with coronavirus than you are at fault if you catch a cold.
Obviously it's not someone's fault for catching it, but it could be someone's fault for spreading it - if it is related to behaviours.

If I can criticise someone for spreading a cold by going to work on the underground, shaking hands at meetings, sneezing without care, not washing hands - then why can't I criticise a super-spreader of the coronavirus for the same? It's absurd to describe it as "events" when events don't spread it, people do.
Because its not entirely about behaviour, it's also about how contagious someone is - that is not something you can know, especially if you're asymptomatically contagious. It can also be bad luck. If I'm on a plane or a train when I become symptomatic, what am I supposed to do? Because even not shaking hands, sneezing carefully, and washing hands isn't going to miraculously make me not contagious. And stopping breathing isn't really a fair request.

It's just not helpful to demonise superspreaders.

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lpm
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by lpm » Tue Feb 11, 2020 3:27 pm

COVID-19

...is what we should be calling it.

From COronaVIrus Disease 2019
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Woodchopper
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Feb 11, 2020 3:44 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 3:27 pm
COVID-19

...is what we should be calling it.

From COronaVIrus Disease 2019
Lets see if that caches on.

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lpm
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by lpm » Tue Feb 11, 2020 3:46 pm

I'm doing my bit. Killed two magpies and a jay so far. Anyone know the best way to trap jackdaws?
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Woodchopper
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:23 pm

The first vaccine targeting China’s coronavirus could be available in 18 months, “so we have to do everything today using available weapons”, the World Health Organization chief, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has said.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... s-says-who

I fear that by then there will be an awful lot of natural immunity.

nefibach
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by nefibach » Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:31 pm

Lots and lots of stats and graphs:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Itu ... 1hdKM/edit#

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by raven » Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:18 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 3:46 pm
I'm doing my bit. Killed two magpies and a jay so far. Anyone know the best way to trap jackdaws?
Hey, you leave us noisy clever birds alone. We're innocent, I tell you, innocent.

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Brightonian
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Brightonian » Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:04 am

New Reddit sub /r/COVID19 has been created, stated aim is to have a scientific approach.

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Brightonian
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Brightonian » Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:25 am

Also, I've seen people recommend Dr John Campbell's videos.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by sTeamTraen » Wed Feb 12, 2020 7:51 am

I've seen some interesting online discussions where people are talking about keeping their kids home from school. Apart from the issue of when to let them return (the media are going to cover every individual case as if it's a terrorist attack, ironically perhaps even more if it *doesn't* become a pandemic), there have also been suggestions that children may deal quite well with the infection. Do any of the public health watchers here have data for that?

(We spent a year in the Gulf when our son was a baby. Mum and Dad got hepatitis A jabs, but we were told that infants who catch it have hardly any symptoms and get lifelong immunity for free.)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by plodder » Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:44 am

raven wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:18 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 3:46 pm
I'm doing my bit. Killed two magpies and a jay so far. Anyone know the best way to trap jackdaws?
Hey, you leave us noisy clever birds alone. We're innocent, I tell you, innocent.
I know a good way to jack a trapdoor, if that helps?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:52 am

lpm wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 3:46 pm
I'm doing my bit. Killed two magpies and a jay so far. Anyone know the best way to trap jackdaws?
Larsen traps are the traditional method for gregarious species like jackdaws (and indeed magpies). You'll need a licence from Natural England (if in England - other devolved regulators are available), but they hand out general licences willy-nilly for perceived pest species and/or if there's a risk to human health, so that's probably no big deal.

How are you going to prepare the corvids for eating?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by basementer » Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:10 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:52 am
How are you going to prepare the corvids for eating?
In a humble pie.
I'll think of something.

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:15 pm

basementer wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:10 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:52 am
How are you going to prepare the corvids for eating?
In a humble pie.
I'm more a packham fan, myself.
"Ecology without socialism is just gardening" - Chico Mendes

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