Scrutable

JQH wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:14 pm

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:21 pm

.
China and especially Hubei and Wuhan is taking the brunt of this catastrophe and the rest of the world is remarkably un sympathetic, talking about eating bats, and quarantine and censorship and the CCP, like they deserved it, when people are dying. It 's been a stimulus for latent anti Chinese racism in the west

Criticism of the PRC regime =/= anti-Chinese racism.

Gfamily wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:36 am

JQH wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:14 pm

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:21 pm

.
China and especially Hubei and Wuhan is taking the brunt of this catastrophe and the rest of the world is remarkably un sympathetic, talking about eating bats, and quarantine and censorship and the CCP, like they deserved it, when people are dying. It 's been a stimulus for latent anti Chinese racism in the west

Criticism of the PRC regime =/= anti-Chinese racism.

Though this needs to be acknowledged...
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... s-outbreak

Of the infected health care workers, 31 (77.5%) worked on general wards, 7 (17.5%) in the emergency department, and 2 (5%) in the ICU. One patient in the current study presented with abdominal symptoms and was admitted to the surgical department. More than 10 health care workers in this department were presumed to have been infected by this patient.

Results Of 138 hospitalized patients with NCIP, the median age was 56 years (interquartile range, 42-68; range, 22-92 years) and 75 (54.3%) were men. Hospital-associated transmission was suspected as the presumed mechanism of infection for affected health professionals (40 [29%]) and hospitalized patients (17 [12.3%]). Common symptoms included fever (136 [98.6%]), fatigue (96 [69.6%]), and dry cough (82 [59.4%]). Lymphopenia (lymphocyte count, 0.8 × 109/L [interquartile range {IQR}, 0.6-1.1]) occurred in 97 patients (70.3%), prolonged prothrombin time (13.0 seconds [IQR, 12.3-13.7]) in 80 patients (58%), and elevated lactate dehydrogenase (261 U/L [IQR, 182-403]) in 55 patients (39.9%). Chest computed tomographic scans showed bilateral patchy shadows or ground glass opacity in the lungs of all patients. Most patients received antiviral therapy (oseltamivir, 124 [89.9%]), and many received antibacterial therapy (moxifloxacin, 89 [64.4%]; ceftriaxone, 34 [24.6%]; azithromycin, 25 [18.1%]) and glucocorticoid therapy (62 [44.9%]). Thirty-six patients (26.1%) were transferred to the intensive care unit (ICU) because of complications, including acute respiratory distress syndrome (22 [61.1%]), arrhythmia (16 [44.4%]), and shock (11 [30.6%]). The median time from first symptom to dyspnea was 5.0 days, to hospital admission was 7.0 days, and to ARDS was 8.0 days. Patients treated in the ICU (n = 36), compared with patients not treated in the ICU (n = 102), were older (median age, 66 years vs 51 years), were more likely to have underlying comorbidities (26 [72.2%] vs 38 [37.3%]), and were more likely to have dyspnea (23 [63.9%] vs 20 [19.6%]), and anorexia (24 [66.7%] vs 31 [30.4%]). Of the 36 cases in the ICU, 4 (11.1%) received high-flow oxygen therapy, 15 (41.7%) received noninvasive ventilation, and 17 (47.2%) received invasive ventilation (4 were switched to extracorporeal membrane oxygenation). As of February 3, 47 patients (34.1%) were discharged and 6 died (overall mortality, 4.3%), but the remaining patients are still hospitalized. Among those discharged alive (n = 47), the median hospital stay was 10 days (IQR, 7.0-14.0).

Summary Report 4
We present case fatality ratio (CFR) estimates for three strata of 2019-nCoV infections. For cases detected in Hubei, we estimate the CFR to be 18% (95% credible interval: 11%-81%). For cases detected in travellers outside mainland China, we obtain central estimates of the CFR in the range 1.2-5.6% depending on the statistical methods, with substantial uncertainty around these central values. Using estimates of underlying infection prevalence in Wuhan at the end of January derived from testing of passengers on repatriation flights to Japan and Germany, we adjusted the estimates of CFR from either the early epidemic in Hubei Province, or from cases reported outside mainland China, to obtain estimates of the overall CFR in all infections (asymptomatic or symptomatic) of approximately 1% (95% confidence interval 0.5%-4%). It is important to note that the differences in these estimates does not reflect underlying differences in disease severity between countries. CFRs seen in individual countries will vary depending on the sensitivity of different surveillance systems to detect cases of differing levels of severity and the clinical care offered to severely ill cases. All CFR estimates should be viewed cautiously at the current time as the sensitivity of surveillance of both deaths and cases in mainland China is unclear. Furthermore, all estimates rely on limited data on the typical time intervals from symptom onset to death or recovery which influences the CFR estimates.

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:00 am

Super-spreaders.

Because of something physical, because of their behaviours when coughing or washing hands, or because of personality?

The BBC has named and shamed the person who infected 11 people. Looks like an excessively gregarious extrovert to me (based on little more than glancing at his photo and letting my prejudices run free).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51459210

When it comes to quarantines, it makes sense to isolate extroverts, but let introverts get on with the job of getting everything done.

Over 100 cases have been deducted over the past 2 days. The concerning problem is that authorities do not disclose the no. of symptom-less infected patients after they count them separately. There will be no way of knowing the exact magnitude of the outbreak.

nefibach wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:25 pm

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:00 am

Super-spreaders.

Because of something physical, because of their behaviours when coughing or washing hands, or because of personality?

The BBC has named and shamed the person who infected 11 people. Looks like an excessively gregarious extrovert to me (based on little more than glancing at his photo and letting my prejudices run free).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51459210

When it comes to quarantines, it makes sense to isolate extroverts, but let introverts get on with the job of getting everything done.

I know you're being funny, but the responsible way to discuss this is using the frame of "superspreading events" not "superspreaders" as people. The UK businessman is no more at fault for having been infected with coronavirus than you are at fault if you catch a cold.

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:36 pm

nefibach wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:25 pm

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:00 am

Super-spreaders.

Because of something physical, because of their behaviours when coughing or washing hands, or because of personality?

The BBC has named and shamed the person who infected 11 people. Looks like an excessively gregarious extrovert to me (based on little more than glancing at his photo and letting my prejudices run free).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51459210

When it comes to quarantines, it makes sense to isolate extroverts, but let introverts get on with the job of getting everything done.

I know you're being funny, but the responsible way to discuss this is using the frame of "superspreading events" not "superspreaders" as people. The UK businessman is no more at fault for having been infected with coronavirus than you are at fault if you catch a cold.

Obviously it's not someone's fault for catching it, but it could be someone's fault for spreading it - if it is related to behaviours.

If I can criticise someone for spreading a cold by going to work on the underground, shaking hands at meetings, sneezing without care, not washing hands - then why can't I criticise a super-spreader of the coronavirus for the same? It's absurd to describe it as "events" when events don't spread it, people do.

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 11, 2020 3:27 pm

COVID-19

...is what we should be calling it.

From COronaVIrus Disease 2019

The first vaccine targeting China’s coronavirus could be available in 18 months, “so we have to do everything today using available weapons”, the World Health Organization chief, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has said.

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 11, 2020 3:46 pm

I'm doing my bit. Killed two magpies and a jay so far. Anyone know the best way to trap jackdaws?

raven wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:18 pm

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 11, 2020 3:46 pm

I'm doing my bit. Killed two magpies and a jay so far. Anyone know the best way to trap jackdaws?

Hey, you leave us noisy clever birds alone. We're innocent, I tell you, innocent.

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 11, 2020 3:46 pm

I'm doing my bit. Killed two magpies and a jay so far. Anyone know the best way to trap jackdaws?

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:52 am

How are you going to prepare the corvids for eating?

basementer wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:10 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:52 am

How are you going to prepare the corvids for eating?

In a humble pie.