Scrutable

jimbob wrote: ↑

Sun May 31, 2020 10:10 am

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Sat May 30, 2020 8:15 pm

Here's the answer:

excess deaths.jpg

Looks like a statistical artifact after all.

Yes, that explained the deaths but not the hint of an increase in the London hospital admissions

Certainly, let’s hope the latter isn’t a trend.

The artifact doesn't mean the deaths didn't happen, it just doesn't attribute them properly to the right day.

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sun May 31, 2020 11:05 am

The artifact doesn't mean the deaths didn't happen, it just doesn't attribute them properly to the right day.

Of course, the good news is about the direction of the trend.

Latest from PeteB's stats minion.

Is R supposed to be 1.07 +/- 0.20 at this stage?

lpm wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 03, 2020 5:31 pm

Latest from PeteB's stats minion.

Is R supposed to be 1.07 +/- 0.20 at this stage?

Apart from PeteB's stats minion, csn you give you a link or name, please?

jimbob wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 04, 2020 7:26 am

lpm wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 03, 2020 5:31 pm

Latest from PeteB's stats minion.

Is R supposed to be 1.07 +/- 0.20 at this stage?

Apart from PeteB's stats minion, csn you give you a link or name, please?

https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1 ... 01410?s=09

Iran is now second waving.

At the start of April official cases peaked at 20,000 a week, then they got it down to 7,000 at the start of May. Now back up to 20,000 again. A classic U shape.

The UK has been much more successful at avoiding this second wave. The UK was also at 20,000 per week at the start of April. By the clever trick of continuing to run with high cases at or above 20,000 per week, the UK has prevented a second wave and the dreaded U shape.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/week ... ry=GBR~IRN

Yet

lpm wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 04, 2020 9:17 am

Iran is now second waving.

At the start of April official cases peaked at 20,000 a week, then they got it down to 7,000 at the start of May. Now back up to 20,000 again. A classic U shape.

The UK has been much more successful at avoiding this second wave. The UK was also at 20,000 per week at the start of April. By the clever trick of continuing to run with high cases at or above 20,000 per week, the UK has prevented a second wave and the dreaded U shape.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/week ... ry=GBR~IRN

All hail Johnson's lower case r-shape!

Compared to our large European neighbours it looks like we've been "fattening the curve" rather than flattening it...

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/week ... RA~ESP~DEU

bob sterman wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:35 am

Compared to our large European neighbours it looks like we've been "fattening the curve" rather than flattening it...

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/week ... RA~ESP~DEU

Yes, the lockdowns in France, Spain and Italy managed to restrict the outbreaks to certain regions - ge Lombardy and neighboring provinces in Italy and round Paris and Alsace in France. Other parts of the countries had low levels of infection.

The UK didn't manage that and so the downward sloping curve in London was counteracted by continuing infection elsewhere.

To be fair, the chart of UK cases might not be accurate.

Because all UK testing statistics have been complete bollocks, starting from 12 March when the govt halted testing outside hospital admissions.

I just watched pmqs and am depressed. Johnson is on the back foot for sure but his response to Starmer holding him to account was decried as attacking the work the individuals involved have put in.

I know it's transparent to us but I fear the gen pop is going to latch onto it.

plebian wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:34 pm

I just watched pmqs and am depressed. Johnson is on the back foot for sure but his response to Starmer holding him to account was decried as attacking the work the individuals involved have put in.

I know it's transparent to us but I fear the gen pop is going to latch onto it.

My aunt, who's neither stupid nor an a..eh.le, has said that she feels sorry for Johnson because those around him keep letting him down.

plebian wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:34 pm

I just watched pmqs and am depressed. Johnson is on the back foot for sure but his response to Starmer holding him to account was decried as attacking the work the individuals involved have put in.

I know it's transparent to us but I fear the gen pop is going to latch onto it.

Johnson was f.cking transparently awful but if what he said is put into print then it's probably less easy to see how sh.t and transparent he was.

R estimated to be >1 in the Northwest, 1 in the Southwest, and above 0.9 in most of the rest of England.

A quick look at the numbers suggests overall average of 1, but a fuzzy picture with <1 in many areas blurring out the problem spots. South West looks worse than North West to me, both clearly >1. The London and South East numbers look good, and obviously that weight brings the average well down - but worryingly this is probably where the biggest collapse of the lockdown is. If London and South East return to 1 then the overall average will be very clearly >1.

lpm wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:49 pm

A quick look at the numbers suggests overall average of 1, but a fuzzy picture with <1 in many areas blurring out the problem spots. South West looks worse than North West to me, both clearly >1. The London and South East numbers look good, and obviously that weight brings the average well down - but worryingly this is probably where the biggest collapse of the lockdown is. If London and South East return to 1 then the overall average will be very clearly >1.

The South West is starting to feel quite scary. We've been relatively untouched so far (despite my neighbour dying from the virus so I know it's been around) and I think it's made everyone complacent. Weston Hospital, which has been a terrible hospital from the moment it opened*, has been closed since May 25th due to an outbreak of coronavirus so fortunately schools have delayed going back as a result but besides that I'm not seeing any evidence that people are recognising the increased risk. People have been flocking to the beach and even pooing in people's gardens due to a lack of open facilities and an inability to consider anyone but themselves. The government is saying we should all get back to normal so that's what they're doing. It's going to end very badly.

* I keep bumping into my old doctor while walking the dog and the other day we were having a little chat about various pandemic-related things and I ended up asking him why Weston has been so bad. It has the reputation of being a hospital where going in is the end for you. It's a hospital of last resort and you'd really rather go to Bristol if you possibly can. It seems that the hospital has always played second fiddle to Bristol, getting the less capable doctors and having an old guard that does what old guards do. I can understand why, you're an up and coming new doctor with the choice of Weston (sh.tty seaside town that's mostly nursing homes) or Bristol (vibrant hub of the south west) you'd choose Bristol every time, but it does mean we end up with an A&E that's been closed at night since last year and struggles to get qualified staff. It is not a hospital remotely prepared for dealing with a pandemic, as its closure attests.

Fishnut wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 05, 2020 5:07 pm

People have been flocking to the beach and even pooing in people's gardens due to a lack of open facilities and an inability to consider anyone but themselves.

A friend who manages some nature reserves on the south coast described visitor behaviour last weekend as the worst he's ever seen in his career (which is >10 years).

Part of this I suppose is people being overexcited after being cooped up so long, but it's pretty disappointing.

Matt Hancock is claiming that Weston is an example of a successful local lockdown. This is complete and utter unmitigated b.llsh.t. The hospital was closed by the CCG, and the council advised schools to delay reopening. It had nothing to do with the government, and there was no wider lockdown, as evidenced by the hordes on the beach last weekend.

Article on the experiment that is being done in Amerika of protesting during a pandemic.

https://thedispatch.com/p/were-about-to ... -about-how

Here’s the good news: Two weeks from now, we’ll know a lot more about how easily COVID-19 spreads outdoors than we do right now.

After a week of mammoth crowds clustering in cities across the nation to protest the death of Minneapolis resident George Floyd at the hands of police, many have asked the obvious question: Hey, aren’t we still in the middle of a pandemic? After two months of shutdown managed to slow the advance of the coronavirus—but not to beat it back—a sudden deluge of crowds have led to understandable fears of a resurgence.

An important thread on the causes of UK excess deaths: https://twitter.com/nickstripe_ons/stat ... 33125?s=21

Suggestion that most of the ‘non-Covid’ deaths are due to undiagnosed Covid infections in elderly people.

The SW does still have a lower absolute number of cases than the NW, so R>1 is more dangerous in the latter. (Obviously depends in local density of cases too - it's a long way from Penzance to Gloucester.)

The SW was actually another good example of earlier lockdown = better results, as the nationally imposed restrictions occured earlier in the exponential growth phase for the SW. See the modelling/data on the MRC biostatistics unit website, which I hadn't seen until today.
https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/

SW is odd - very low Devon, very high Somerset.