Re: COVID-19
Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:22 am
You can see the spike in cases in young people in August when nightclubs opened.
Bold bit: No, natural immunity will do it too. So we could get herd immunity from Covid without a vaccine. Just it'll kill ~1% of the population to get there.sTeamTraen wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:57 amNadine Dorries takes on Arran Banks.
I actually have some sympathy for Dorries here, which is why the link goes to Adam Rutherford's retweet and related discussion, where other people take a similar position. Clearly "There is no such thing as herd immunity" is not great wordsmithing (although it only needs "in the absence of a vaccine" to be correct), but I'd rather a government minister be seen to defend "Herd immunity isn't going to happen" than the ultra-libertarian position supported by Banks. (Also, he is a universal c.nt, whereas she is normally just a bit dense.)
It also makes me wonder if there isn't a bit of argy-bargy going on within the government about herd imunity, which I suspect Cummings may never really have given up on.
The Kaplan-Meier graphs on page 15 even show both Hydroxychloroquine and Interferon trending in the opposite direction (increased mortality).Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir and Interferon regimens appeared to have little or no effect on hospitalized COVID-19, as indicated by overall mortality, initiation of ventilation and duration of hospital stay.
Scary developmentjimbob wrote: ↑Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:39 pmnew datajimbob wrote: ↑Tue Sep 08, 2020 5:42 pm
And the North Somerset cluster from that has made it into the UK official data now:
https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/
Looking not too good in the South Coast now as well as the places we know.
Screenshot 2020-09-12 152021.png
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/C3SKs/10/ (zoomed map from https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/)
The black blob there on the south coast is Eastbourne and the red Dorset blob stretches over to Weymouth and Durdle Door.
The vast majority of COVID deaths in England since July have been mislabelled false positive deaths. Here is the proof. This chart shows the number of tests carried out in hospitals in orange and the deaths in blue.
You will notice that the shape of the two curves are very similar. We can test this. The chart below demonstrates that since August 93% of the rise in deaths can be accounted for by the rise in the number of tests done in hospitals over the 28 days preceding.
Ummm, did she just run a Pearson correlation on two time series?
jdc wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:05 pmI saw this and thought of you: https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/stat ... 6324218880
The vast majority of COVID deaths in England since July have been mislabelled false positive deaths. Here is the proof. This chart shows the number of tests carried out in hospitals in orange and the deaths in blue.
You will notice that the shape of the two curves are very similar. We can test this. The chart below demonstrates that since August 93% of the rise in deaths can be accounted for by the rise in the number of tests done in hospitals over the 28 days preceding.
If that's not enough to whet your appetite, there's plenty more graphs and commentary in the thread.
Spoiler - 2004 looks pretty similar to the other years that are not 2020Pity the numbers don't support this: This is what the cumulative deaths from all causes were for each year in the last 20 years
Before.Dr Clare Craig FRCPath
@ClareCraigPath
Pathologist, lover of data, digital pathology and AI, sceptical but optimistic. Between jobs and unpaid but working flat out.
And campaigner for a "free school" in Hampstead...
Nice.bob sterman wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:03 pmAnd campaigner for a "free school" in Hampstead...
https://www.hamhigh.co.uk/education/wes ... -1-2366153
Er, it's Brighton and suburbs.
That map is starting to look like a population density map of the country, consistent with the virus spreading everywhere.dyqik wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:30 amEr, it's Brighton and suburbs.
Eastbourne is visible as a smaller black blob on the east side of Beachy Head, and Hastings is also visible. But the black blobs in East Sussex are basically where the towns with hospitals are.
Er, don't know what happened there, I meant Bournemouth, the black blob to the west.
Scottish Govtdiscovolante wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:25 pmErm, spot the difference?
scot.png
UK.png
https://www.gov.scot/publications/coron ... -scotland/
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
UK Gov (via BBC)We were notified late last week of a testing capacity issue with the UK Government Lighthouse facility in Glasgow.
This has meant around 64,000 tests from across the UK, including Scotland, will be rerouted this weekend (Fri-Sun) to other testing sites in the UK and Northern Ireland, including tests from our physical testing sites, for example Regional Tests sites. It is important to note that the majority of these tests are still well within the 24 and 48 hour timeframe for results albeit we do expect to see an increase in the level of positives on Monday and Tuesday when the results are reported.
The Scottish Government is urgently trying to establish with the UK Government what exactly is causing the delay in testing but this is mainly due to demand from out with Scotland.
We continue to reroute routine testing of care home staff through NHS Scotland testing facilities to ensure prompt turnaround times.
Note they do not deny a delay in 64,000 tests, or a likely "increase in the level of positives on Monday and Tuesday when the results are reported", just that any delay is due to a "capacity issue". Humphrey Appleby would be proud.This claim is categorically untrue.
There is no capacity issue at the UK government's Glasgow Lighthouse Lab. The Glasgow Lighthouse Lab is highly efficient, with the capacity to analyse tens of thousands of samples a day.
Rerouting tests to other laboratories is a routine practice to ensure timely processing.
Ha! Well weasel words aside, if there's no problem, what a result for Scotland eh! Massive reduction in cases and % of total tests, wahey!KAJ wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:24 pmScottish Govtdiscovolante wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:25 pmErm, spot the difference?
scot.png
UK.png
https://www.gov.scot/publications/coron ... -scotland/
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/UK Gov (via BBC)We were notified late last week of a testing capacity issue with the UK Government Lighthouse facility in Glasgow.
This has meant around 64,000 tests from across the UK, including Scotland, will be rerouted this weekend (Fri-Sun) to other testing sites in the UK and Northern Ireland, including tests from our physical testing sites, for example Regional Tests sites. It is important to note that the majority of these tests are still well within the 24 and 48 hour timeframe for results albeit we do expect to see an increase in the level of positives on Monday and Tuesday when the results are reported.
The Scottish Government is urgently trying to establish with the UK Government what exactly is causing the delay in testing but this is mainly due to demand from out with Scotland.
We continue to reroute routine testing of care home staff through NHS Scotland testing facilities to ensure prompt turnaround times.Note they do not deny a delay in 64,000 tests, or a likely "increase in the level of positives on Monday and Tuesday when the results are reported", just that any delay is due to a "capacity issue". Humphrey Appleby would be proud.This claim is categorically untrue.
There is no capacity issue at the UK government's Glasgow Lighthouse Lab. The Glasgow Lighthouse Lab is highly efficient, with the capacity to analyse tens of thousands of samples a day.
Rerouting tests to other laboratories is a routine practice to ensure timely processing.
I wonder if I should think about worrying about this. I appear to have form.tenchboy wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:20 pmEr, don't know what happened there, I meant Bournemouth, the black blob to the west.
Or rather I do know what happened there, I was thinking Bournemouth, not Eastbourne, Bournemouth, don't write Eastbourne, Eastbourne is to the east, this is the one to the west that is Bournmouth the one that isn't Eastbourne.
And the because it was on my mind, I wrote Eastebourne.
Get me a new head, this one's done for.
Something funny about today's update of the Cases by Specimen date UK Total link.raven wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:10 pmSo. They're about to change the UK data dashboard again.
The new version, which is here, doesn't seem much different. But the new interactive map is. You can still drill down to the same small areas (well, in England anyway), the colour coding is much better, and clicking on an area opens up a nice clear pop-up box of stats with a comparison to the national average. Might be slightly confusing to have straight daily cases numbers and a rolling 7-day average per 100,000, but otherwise the new map might actually be an improvement on the previous one.
I'm almost pleasantly surprised.