Not looking good for HS2

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Woodchopper
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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jan 28, 2020 6:45 pm

individualmember wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 6:42 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Jan 25, 2020 11:05 am
In case anyone is interested this surprisingly amusing podcast describes a public procurement case where everything was done badly (with the predictable result that it’s billions over budget and still isn’t finished). http://www.radiospaetkauf.com/ber/
That is brilliant (I’m up to episode 4 now)
Yes, I enjoyed it.

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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:35 am

Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by plodder » Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:18 am

This is a good, condensed run through of the cost

https://twitter.com/RAIL/status/1222812020896141314

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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:14 am

That was really good, thanks for posting.
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:27 am

Looks like the 2013 report has been dusted off, rebadged and fired at Shapps from a cannon as well.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 92776.html
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by Gfamily » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:31 am

plodder wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:18 am
This is a good, condensed run through of the cost

https://twitter.com/RAIL/status/1222812020896141314
Any reason why he refers to "Sajid David" and "SD" throughout ? I assume a mis-hearing.
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct

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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:34 am

Always good to pick up on the important details
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by plodder » Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:25 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:31 am
plodder wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:18 am
This is a good, condensed run through of the cost

https://twitter.com/RAIL/status/1222812020896141314
Any reason why he refers to "Sajid David" and "SD" throughout ? I assume a mis-hearing.
The great thing about twitter is you can ask the author directly to clarify spelling, punctuation etc.

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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by Gfamily » Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:11 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:34 am
Always good to pick up on the important details
I don't know - it might be a 'thing'.
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct

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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:45 pm

Oh no, John Redwood is against it. Such wisdom.
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by nekomatic » Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:09 pm

If I hadn’t already been for it that would have made the decision easy

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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Fri Jan 31, 2020 2:01 pm

Looking somewhat better for HS2 now, but still all to play for.
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by Martin Y » Fri Jan 31, 2020 2:10 pm

plodder wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:18 am
This is a good, condensed run through of the cost

https://twitter.com/RAIL/status/1222812020896141314
Do you suppose if the price-inflating contract requirements have indeed "quietly been dropped" Govt ministers sense an opportunity to "take charge" of the project then announce triumphantly how they have slashed costs and driven the project forward?

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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Fri Jan 31, 2020 2:50 pm

That's exactly what's suggested, yes. It's an exceptionally easy win, which is one of the benefits of being in charge after Chris Grayling has had a go at something.
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by sTeamTraen » Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:58 pm


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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by Herainestold » Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:46 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:58 pm
Not looking bad for HS2?
So is HS2 good or bad? I must admit I have no idea.

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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:57 am

If only there were a thread with 90 posts prior to yours where that issue was discussed.
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by veravista » Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:02 am

The only thing I want to know is how much will the fair be? If it's carrying some 15,000 people an hour (gov figures via BBC) it surely will be dirt cheap, no?

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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:08 am

Bit of a derail, but if it's anything like Hull Fair then it's free entry, with children's rides costing about £2.50 and larger rides between £1 and £5, with £3 being typical.

https://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/whats-o ... es-2069648
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by veravista » Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:16 am

f.cking autocorrect.

So it will be free but a can of beer and a sandwich will be £250?

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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:22 am

More realistically, no one is going to know anything about fares until much closer to the commissioning. By that time, all sorts of things are possible, including but not limited to the wholesale nationalisation and reunification of the railway; the wholesale privatisation and refracturing of the railway; and the heat death of the universe.
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:29 am

Let us turn now to the political commentary about today's announcement, and in particular let's hear from the man who many have called "a blond sh.t on a stick"; "the most thoughtless political opinion since John Redwood sadly died"*, and "an aged, bleached Austin Powers wannabe":

Michael Fabricant, Conservative MP for Litchfield in Staffordshire, says he supports HS2 on a "philosophical" level.

But he is critical of the final plans for the project, which mean it will not go into Birmingham New Street, the city's main interchange. He says there is also an awkward change to other services when trains arrive in London.

He also says the route will cause unnecessary damage to the countryside.

“People are still going to fly because of the change of trains in London, so my argument is the lack of connectivity and also that it is so damaging environmentally.

“Instead of using existing transport corridors, which it will do as it goes into the North in phase 2, between Birmingham and London it crashes through unspoiled countryside.”

"I certainly believe we need two extra lines because of capacity problems on the West Coast mainline but I think in years to come people will look back on this project and say 'they could have done it so much better'."
Note that because this is the BBC, each sentence needs its own paragraph. Apologies for that.

What's amazing about Fabricant's commentary here is just how incredibly he packs in so much wrong into such a small amount of words.



*the only sad part is that he isn't actually dead
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by lpm » Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:32 am

veravista wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:02 am
The only thing I want to know is how much will the fair be? If it's carrying some 15,000 people an hour (gov figures via BBC) it surely will be dirt cheap, no?
If it's that for 10 hours a day then about 150,000 per day, which would imply something like 50 million journeys a year. Or 2.5 billion over the next fifty years. At a cost of £100 billion, that's £40 each to cover construction.

Alternatively, borrow £100 billion at 4%, interest of £4 billion a year. Divided by 50 million journeys is £80 each.

But probably need to include people travelling on the other lines where capacity has been freed up - more trains on existing "free" tracks.
I'll miss him after he's died in the pandemic

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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by plodder » Tue Feb 11, 2020 10:01 am

lpm wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:32 am
veravista wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:02 am
The only thing I want to know is how much will the fair be? If it's carrying some 15,000 people an hour (gov figures via BBC) it surely will be dirt cheap, no?
If it's that for 10 hours a day then about 150,000 per day, which would imply something like 50 million journeys a year. Or 2.5 billion over the next fifty years. At a cost of £100 billion, that's £40 each to cover construction.

Alternatively, borrow £100 billion at 4%, interest of £4 billion a year. Divided by 50 million journeys is £80 each.

But probably need to include people travelling on the other lines where capacity has been freed up - more trains on existing "free" tracks.
Worth factoring in the various estimates for ROI, which seem to vary between 0.6 (the skeptics) and 1.6 (the supporters)

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Re: Not looking good for HS2

Post by science_fox » Tue Feb 11, 2020 10:08 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:29 am
Let us turn now to the political commentary about today's announcement, and in particular let's hear from the man who many have called "a blond sh.t on a stick"; "the most thoughtless political opinion since John Redwood sadly died"*, and "an aged, bleached Austin Powers wannabe":

Michael Fabricant, Conservative MP for Litchfield in Staffordshire, says he supports HS2 on a "philosophical" level.

But he is critical of the final plans for the project, which mean it will not go into Birmingham New Street, the city's main interchange. He says there is also an awkward change to other services when trains arrive in London.

He also says the route will cause unnecessary damage to the countryside.

“People are still going to fly because of the change of trains in London, so my argument is the lack of connectivity and also that it is so damaging environmentally.

“Instead of using existing transport corridors, which it will do as it goes into the North in phase 2, between Birmingham and London it crashes through unspoiled countryside.”

"I certainly believe we need two extra lines because of capacity problems on the West Coast mainline but I think in years to come people will look back on this project and say 'they could have done it so much better'."
Note that because this is the BBC, each sentence needs its own paragraph. Apologies for that.

What's amazing about Fabricant's commentary here is just how incredibly he packs in so much wrong into such a small amount of words.



*the only sad part is that he isn't actually dead
If* it doesn't go into BNS then surely he has a small point? Every other train in the country (nearly) seems to go to BNS, and I certainly wouldn't bother paying out an extra £80 if I had to schlepp about across Birmingham to another station. I believe it does go into the main Manchester station ManPic. London is a different matter because that's where you going anyway so you're always going to have to change.


*no I haven't looked it so far in the future I don't care that much

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