Scotland: Unilateral Declaration of Independence

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cheese
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Scotland: Unilateral Declaration of Independence

Post by cheese » Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:54 am

Possible?

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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:46 am

I think you may mean a unilateral declaration.

It is possible.But the costs would be huge.

I think it’s very unlikely to happen. To start with polling still doesn’t show a consistent majority for independence. Unlikely there would be a majority for a chaotic exit from the union.

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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence

Post by purplehaze » Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:11 pm

Yes it is possible.

I do hope Scotland gets it.

Now on to other weighty, but similar, matters.

Northern Ireland. It's in the pipeline as the first to leave the Union.

Gibraltar. What happens next? It will quietly be absorbed back into Spain, no one will care. No way will they be given the opportunity to get EU citizenship and remain the in UK because that means approximately 17 million people in the rest of the UK will want that too.

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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence

Post by discovolante » Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:10 am

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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:16 am

purplehaze wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:11 pm
Gibraltar. What happens next? It will quietly be absorbed back into Spain, no one will care.
Literally everyone who lives there will care, you utter cretin. Trying to rewrite borders to what they were more than three hundred years ago, against the wishes of the people that live there, is utterly insane. And not the done thing at all.

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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence

Post by discovolante » Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:22 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:16 am
purplehaze wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:11 pm
Gibraltar. What happens next? It will quietly be absorbed back into Spain, no one will care.
Literally everyone who lives there will care, you utter cretin. Trying to rewrite borders to what they were more than three hundred years ago, against the wishes of the people that live there, is utterly insane. And not the done thing at all.
That post was over two years ago, can we stick to the topic on this one? (and generally please hold back on the insults, it's totally possible to be forceful without calling people names half the time)
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Re: Should Scotland be independent?

Post by TopBadger » Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:29 am

lpm wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:01 am
Ha ha Scotland, you have no power, just stick to arranging the bin days.
An entirely expected ruling.
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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence

Post by Formerly AvP » Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:36 am

Nicola apparently on live stream
https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/1595379476422164480
My suspicion is that it was always clear that the Supreme Court would say 'no' (Nicola is a lawyer by background) and then the SNP moves to plan B, using the election as a vehicle.
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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence

Post by TopBadger » Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:44 am

Formerly AvP wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:36 am
Nicola apparently on live stream
https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/1595379476422164480
My suspicion is that it was always clear that the Supreme Court would say 'no' (Nicola is a lawyer by background) and then the SNP moves to plan B, using the election as a vehicle.
I think the SNP need to get an overall majority in Holyrood (which they're close to, but critically do not have)... then the UK government can't exactly turn down an Indie Ref request whilst also claiming to support the UN charter which includes the right to self determination.
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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence

Post by Formerly AvP » Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:56 am

Formerly AvP wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:36 am
Nicola apparently on live stream
https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/1595379476422164480
My suspicion is that it was always clear that the Supreme Court would say 'no' (Nicola is a lawyer by background) and then the SNP moves to plan B, using the election as a vehicle.
I thought she spoke very well.

She says that while the verdict is as disappointment, it raises "profound and uncomfortable questions about the future of the UK", that the understanding that Scotland was in a voluntary association with the UK no longer applied. While she still favoured a referendum, she wanted the UK govt. to agree to one as the best way forward, but failing that, the next UK election would be treated as a "de facto referendum" and that this option was "no longer hypothetical". Re-joining the EU was an ambition, and the Tories were rubbish (I may have paraphrased this last it a little).
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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 23, 2022 12:27 pm

Formerly AvP wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:56 am
Re-joining the EU was an ambition...
So the usual pie in the sky, then - there's no way Spain agrees to the precedent of a territory breaking away from a country against the wishes of the national government being in the EU, for reasons obvious to everyone including Sturgeon.

Offering something that can't be done in the knowledge that most people will decide before they realise the truth - really is cut from the same cloth as Brexit.

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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence

Post by JQH » Wed Nov 23, 2022 12:29 pm

Point of Pedantry; I thought the U in UDI stood for Unilateral.
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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence

Post by IvanV » Wed Nov 23, 2022 12:32 pm

Formerly AvP wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:56 am
...that the understanding that Scotland was in a voluntary association with the UK no longer applied. ...
That's taking it a bit far, Nicola. You had a referendum pretty recently and lost it. You were told it was a once in a generation chance. You could have thought carefully about it and chosen to have it a bit later. The next generation may well ask for and get another chance, because you were told it was a once in a generation chance. The question is not closed for the foreseeable, just closed for the immediate present, because you had your chance in the present.

I don't think it is a necessary condition of an association being voluntary that the exit party can demand referendums often, or at their own convenience. That would not be a democratically good way to settle the question. It increases the chance of random fluctuation leading to a result that is regretted shortly afterwards. Now when did that come up recently in a slightly different situation? At most once in a generation seems a reasonable rule.

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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 23, 2022 12:39 pm

IvanV wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 12:32 pm
Formerly AvP wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:56 am
...that the understanding that Scotland was in a voluntary association with the UK no longer applied. ...
That's taking it a bit far, Nicola. You had a referendum pretty recently and lost it. You were told it was a once in a generation chance. You could have thought carefully about it and chosen to have it a bit later. The next generation may well ask for and get another chance, because you were told it was a once in a generation chance. The question is not closed for the foreseeable, just closed for the immediate present, because you had your chance in the present.

I don't think it is a necessary condition of an association being voluntary that the exit party can demand referendums often, or at their own convenience. That would not be a democratically good way to settle the question. It increases the chance of random fluctuation leading to a result that is regretted shortly afterwards. Now when did that come up recently in a slightly different situation? At most once in a generation seems a reasonable rule.
I'd agree with all of this, but I'd also agree with a requirement for a referendum to occur after as many of the details as possible have been worked out, and if that means it takes two referenda, then it means two referenda. It would have saved a lot of trouble with Brexit, for starters.

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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence

Post by dyqik » Wed Nov 23, 2022 12:47 pm

The last referendum implicitly asked if Scotland should remain in the EU as part of the UK.

Since the UK has left the EU against the wishes of Scotland, the terms have rather changed. As such, I don't think the last referendum can not be considered particularly binding.

It's a rather ridiculous thing to call participation in a thing voluntary, substantially change the thing, and then call forced continued participation in that thing voluntary.

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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence

Post by discovolante » Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:08 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:44 am
Formerly AvP wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:36 am
Nicola apparently on live stream
https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/1595379476422164480
My suspicion is that it was always clear that the Supreme Court would say 'no' (Nicola is a lawyer by background) and then the SNP moves to plan B, using the election as a vehicle.
I think the SNP need to get an overall majority in Holyrood (which they're close to, but critically do not have)... then the UK government can't exactly turn down an Indie Ref request whilst also claiming to support the UN charter which includes the right to self determination.
The SC also held that the right to self determination doesn't apply to Scotland. See paras 84 to 91 of the judgment.
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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence

Post by discovolante » Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:16 pm

Formerly AvP wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:36 am
Nicola apparently on live stream
https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/1595379476422164480
My suspicion is that it was always clear that the Supreme Court would say 'no' (Nicola is a lawyer by background) and then the SNP moves to plan B, using the election as a vehicle.
In fairness I think her background as First Minister of Scotland and leader of the SNP, and the fact that she isn't a total idiot (even if you disagree with/dislike her) and will probably have taken careful legal advice, is probably more relevant than her background as a solicitor.

Anyway. I think Brexit changed the game somewhat. It is incumbent on the SNP to be honest about the the prospects of rejoining and what that entails, though. OTOH if Scotland was independent then presumably it would have more leeway to do things that would leave it more closely aligned with the EU anyway, with any benefits that might bring.
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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence

Post by discovolante » Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:25 pm

I do wonder how many people who think there should be another referendum, don't actively want the outcome to be for Scotland to be independent (whether that's pro union, undecided or anywhere in between), and vice versa. Anyone? Would be interested go know.
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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:26 pm

discovolante wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:08 pm
TopBadger wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:44 am
Formerly AvP wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:36 am
Nicola apparently on live stream
https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/1595379476422164480
My suspicion is that it was always clear that the Supreme Court would say 'no' (Nicola is a lawyer by background) and then the SNP moves to plan B, using the election as a vehicle.
I think the SNP need to get an overall majority in Holyrood (which they're close to, but critically do not have)... then the UK government can't exactly turn down an Indie Ref request whilst also claiming to support the UN charter which includes the right to self determination.
The SC also held that the right to self determination doesn't apply to Scotland. See paras 84 to 91 of the judgment.
I just read that and I don’t think they did write that. The judgment just concludes that the Scotland Act doesn’t breech the right to self-determination set out in the UN Charter.

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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:28 pm

A copy of the judgement can be found here: https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/ ... dgment.pdf

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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:28 pm

discovolante wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:25 pm
I do wonder how many people who think there should be another referendum, don't actively want the outcome to be for Scotland to be independent (whether that's pro union, undecided or anywhere in between), and vice versa. Anyone? Would be interested go know.
It depends so much on what the terms are that I can't really answer that.

Then again, if Brexit had done what the Brexiteers said it would, perhaps it would have been justified, too.

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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence

Post by IvanV » Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:30 pm

discovolante wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:08 pm
The SC also held that the right to self determination doesn't apply to Scotland. See paras 84 to 91 of the judgment.
That's not surprising, because international arrangements on self-determination are only applicable in very limited cases. They tends to be conditional on there being actual suffering as a result of being unable to escape an oppressive regime, as well as being definable in both ethnic and geographic terms. So the Kosovars would have had a self-determination claim, but not the Catalans or Corsicans.

And it isn't surprising that the international agreement is so narrow, because these agreements are made by the nations currently in charge, who have a vested interest in preventing such secession.

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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence

Post by discovolante » Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:39 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:26 pm
discovolante wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:08 pm
TopBadger wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:44 am


I think the SNP need to get an overall majority in Holyrood (which they're close to, but critically do not have)... then the UK government can't exactly turn down an Indie Ref request whilst also claiming to support the UN charter which includes the right to self determination.
The SC also held that the right to self determination doesn't apply to Scotland. See paras 84 to 91 of the judgment.
I just read that and I don’t think they did write that. The judgment just concludes that the Scotland Act doesn’t breech the right to self-determination set out in the UN Charter.
Hm, I read it to mean both. The AG made two submissions against the SNP (para 86, sorry on phone so copy and paste is a faff), and the SC addressed both of them.
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:28 pm
discovolante wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:25 pm
I do wonder how many people who think there should be another referendum, don't actively want the outcome to be for Scotland to be independent (whether that's pro union, undecided or anywhere in between), and vice versa. Anyone? Would be interested go know.
It depends so much on what the terms are that I can't really answer that.

Then again, if Brexit had done what the Brexiteers said it would, perhaps it would have been justified, too.
That's a fair point, but I don't think it's fully possible to predict how things would go in the event of an independence vote, although people can make educated guesses. So the terms of the referendum are only part of the issue. I suppose you've partly answered my question anyway.
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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:44 pm

discovolante wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:39 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:28 pm
It depends so much on what the terms are that I can't really answer that.

Then again, if Brexit had done what the Brexiteers said it would, perhaps it would have been justified, too.
That's a fair point, but I don't think it's fully possible to predict how things would go in the event of an independence vote, although people can make educated guesses. So the terms of the referendum are only part of the issue. I suppose you've partly answered my question anyway.
To put it another way, my objections are practical, rather than an objection to the idea in principle.

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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:56 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 12:27 pm
Formerly AvP wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:56 am
Re-joining the EU was an ambition...
So the usual pie in the sky, then - there's no way Spain agrees to the precedent of a territory breaking away from a country against the wishes of the national government being in the EU, for reasons obvious to everyone including Sturgeon.

Offering something that can't be done in the knowledge that most people will decide before they realise the truth - really is cut from the same cloth as Brexit.
Spain's been pretty clear they wouldn't block Scotland re-joining as long as the process was legal. Scotland is currently exploring which options would be legal.

It appears to be the case that both Spain and UK have the power to unilaterally prevent a legal process taking place, while neither Scotland nor Catalonia have the power to initiate one.
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