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Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:03 pm
by EACLucifer
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:56 pm
EACLucifer wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 12:27 pm
Formerly AvP wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:56 am
Re-joining the EU was an ambition...
So the usual pie in the sky, then - there's no way Spain agrees to the precedent of a territory breaking away from a country against the wishes of the national government being in the EU, for reasons obvious to everyone including Sturgeon.
Offering something that can't be done in the knowledge that most people will decide before they realise the truth - really is cut from the same cloth as Brexit.
Spain's been pretty clear they wouldn't block Scotland re-joining as long as the process was legal. Scotland is currently exploring which options would be legal.
It appears to be the case that both Spain and UK have the power to unilaterally prevent a legal process taking place, while neither Scotland nor Catalonia have the power to initiate one.
That's more or less exactly what I said in my post.
Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:11 pm
by discovolante
It's all gonna make the next GE interesting anyway
Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:16 pm
by Bird on a Fire
EACLucifer wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:03 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:56 pm
EACLucifer wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 12:27 pm
So the usual pie in the sky, then - there's no way Spain agrees to the precedent of a territory breaking away from a country against the wishes of the national government being in the EU, for reasons obvious to everyone including Sturgeon.
Offering something that can't be done in the knowledge that most people will decide before they realise the truth - really is cut from the same cloth as Brexit.
Spain's been pretty clear they wouldn't block Scotland re-joining as long as the process was legal. Scotland is currently exploring which options would be legal.
It appears to be the case that both Spain and UK have the power to unilaterally prevent a legal process taking place, while neither Scotland nor Catalonia have the power to initiate one.
That's more or less exactly what I said in my post.
I may have misunderstood you, or I may be drawing a distinction with little practical relevance. But Spain wouldn't stop Scotland rejoining the EU if the UK government was unhappy about the split, as long as the process was legal.
She's said
We must and we will find another democratic, lawful means for Scottish people to express their will
So she's presumably not (publicly) thinking of a Catalan-style unilateral referendum.
Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:18 pm
by Bird on a Fire
discovolante wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:11 pm
It's all gonna make the next GE interesting anyway
Sunak-SNP coalition, with Tories retaining power over the city forever and Scotland getting indyref2 and fleeing the bin fire.
You heard it here first
Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:25 pm
by EACLucifer
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:16 pm
EACLucifer wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:03 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:56 pm
Spain's been pretty clear they wouldn't block Scotland re-joining as long as the process was legal. Scotland is currently exploring which options would be legal.
It appears to be the case that both Spain and UK have the power to unilaterally prevent a legal process taking place, while neither Scotland nor Catalonia have the power to initiate one.
That's more or less exactly what I said in my post.
I may have misunderstood you, or I may be drawing a distinction with little practical relevance. But Spain wouldn't stop Scotland rejoining the EU if the UK government was unhappy about the split, as long as the process was legal.
Which it wouldn't be, according to the latest court judgement, so I think you are drawing a distinction with little practical relevance.
Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:57 pm
by jimbob
JQH wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 12:29 pm
Point of Pedantry; I thought the U in UDI stood for Unilateral.
Beat me to it
Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2022 3:02 pm
by Woodchopper
EACLucifer wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:25 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:16 pm
EACLucifer wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:03 pm
That's more or less exactly what I said in my post.
I may have misunderstood you, or I may be drawing a distinction with little practical relevance. But Spain wouldn't stop Scotland rejoining the EU if the UK government was unhappy about the split, as long as the process was legal.
Which it wouldn't be, according to the latest court judgement, so I think you are drawing a distinction with little practical relevance.
That’s a bit hasty. The Court just ruled on the powers of the Scottish government to organise a referendum. It hasn’t ruled on independence or how it might happen.
Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2022 3:11 pm
by EACLucifer
Woodchopper wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 3:02 pm
EACLucifer wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:25 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:16 pm
I may have misunderstood you, or I may be drawing a distinction with little practical relevance. But Spain wouldn't stop Scotland rejoining the EU if the UK government was unhappy about the split, as long as the process was legal.
Which it wouldn't be, according to the latest court judgement, so I think you are drawing a distinction with little practical relevance.
That’s a bit hasty. The Court just ruled on the powers of the Scottish government to organise a referendum. It hasn’t ruled on independence or how it might happen.
Fair point. I was specifically thinking in the context of a unilateral declaration with or without an unrecognised referendum.
Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2022 3:12 pm
by noggins
Im in favour of independence for the new state of "Scotland And Northern Ireland".
Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2022 3:16 pm
by discovolante
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:18 pm
discovolante wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:11 pm
It's all gonna make the next GE interesting anyway
Sunak-SNP coalition, with Tories retaining power over the city forever and Scotland getting indyref2 and fleeing the bin fire.
You heard it here first
If the SNP campaign solely on the issue of independence, some sort of Scottish Labour-Tory agreement to get them out seems more likely. Oooooh the possibilities! (Sorry this level of discussion is probably closer to MB territory really)
Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2022 3:18 pm
by Woodchopper
EACLucifer wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 3:11 pm
Woodchopper wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 3:02 pm
EACLucifer wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:25 pm
Which it wouldn't be, according to the latest court judgement, so I think you are drawing a distinction with little practical relevance.
That’s a bit hasty. The Court just ruled on the powers of the Scottish government to organise a referendum. It hasn’t ruled on independence or how it might happen.
Fair point. I was specifically thinking in the context of a unilateral declaration with or without an unrecognised referendum.
We’re a long way from a unilateral declaration. The government in London could still decide to allow a referendum, and the people of Scotland could try to persuade the Prime Minister.
Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2022 3:49 pm
by discovolante
Except both the major parties are really quite hostile to the idea of another referendum. If the SNP campaign solely on the issue of independence and win an outright majority in Scotland by vote share then it would be a lot harder to say no, but well...it could happen I suppose? Tory-SNP swings are fairly common, and the Tories may still have a few votes to lose.
In other news I saw a pig with some strange protrusions growing out of its back earlier today.
Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2022 4:15 pm
by Bird on a Fire
Do they need to campaign solely on independence? Don't see why it couldn't be part of a wider manifesto (the same way remaining dependent on the UK is part, rather than the entirety, of Scottish Labour and Conservative manifestos).
Plus it could well be that a lot of the stuff they'd like to do (EU membership being an obvious one) that's impossible without independence.
Starmer's ruled out loads of stuff in order to look Strong and Tough in the tabloids, but at the end of the day he's a politician and we won't know who he's happy to do deals with till after the election results are in. SNP coalition vs opposition seems an easy decision for any party.
Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2022 4:23 pm
by sTeamTraen
JQH wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 12:29 pm
Point of Pedantry; I thought the U in UDI stood for Unilateral.
This was also mentioned in post #2. I would support an edit of the title by the mods here.
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 4:15 pm
Do they need to campaign
solely on independence? Don't see why it couldn't be part of a wider manifesto (the same way remaining dependent on the UK is part, rather than the entirety, of Scottish Labour and Conservative manifestos).
Assuming we're talking about the UK General Election (House of Commons), SNP MPs are (or ought to be) really only at Westminster to vote on issues that affect Scotland as part of the UK (the old "West Lothian question"). So perhaps their manifesto would contain some stuff about defence or foreign policy ("Pending independence, we want to abolish Trident / support Ukraine / whatever), but it would still be a thin document compared to that of an all-UK party. It would seem a bit weird to say "Here in Scotland we have XYZ better thing in the NHS or education because of Holyrood, so we're going to campaign to get England and Wales to implement the same thing".
I think this is different from the unionist parties in Scotland, who AFAIK do not think that they shouldn't vote on England & Wales issues, especially as part of the UK government majority. It is all a bit of a mess, however.
Re: Scotland: Unilateral Declaration of Independence
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2022 4:26 pm
by discovolante
I've edited the first post but not the rest, because I've procrastinated from work enough today.
Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2022 4:41 pm
by monkey
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 4:15 pm
Starmer's ruled out loads of stuff in order to look Strong and Tough in the tabloids, but at the end of the day he's a politician and we won't know who he's happy to do deals with till after the election results are in. SNP coalition vs opposition seems an easy decision for any party.
Labour won't go into a coalition with the SNP. They will rule that out, as they have done in past elections, and they won't last long if the very first thing they do is renege on their campaigning. A supply and confidence arrangement in return for more devolved powers (which some Labour people have argued for anyway) could happen, but there won't be any promises of a 2nd referendum.
Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2022 5:54 pm
by TopBadger
monkey wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 4:41 pm
Labour... won't last long if the very first thing they do is renege on their campaigning.
Why not? The Tories do it successfully.
I'd rather have the Labour party in power and reneging on some things to get their policies through than have another 5 years of the Tories.
Re: Scotland: Unilateral Declaration of Independence
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2022 6:09 pm
by discovolante
Here are a few things Anas Sarwar had to say about the SNP / Sturgeon in July:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... nas-sarwar
He vehemently rejected Sturgeon’s intention of treating the next general election as a “proxy referendum” on independence, complaining that the reassuring figure of “pandemic Nicola” had been replaced with “the partisan Nicola Sturgeon who wants to pit Scot against Scot for her own obsession”.
Labour overtook the Conservatives to move into second place in May’s local council elections, as Sarwar seeks to rebuild what he calls “the first red wall to fall” in Scotland.
On the possibility of a pact with the SNP, which the Tories are expected to focus on at the next election, warning as they did in 2010 of a “coalition of chaos”, Sarwar said: “Labour will do no deal with the SNP.
“No deal. No pact. No behind-closed-doors arrangement. No coalition. At the next election, we will be fighting for every vote and we are aiming to form a majority Labour government. Should we fall short of that, and be in a position to form a minority government, the SNP will face a simple choice.
“It can choose to keep the Tories in power, or choose to back a Labour government. And I dare Nicola Sturgeon to back the Tories and put them back in power, and see how Scotland responds.”
Re: Scotland: Unilateral Declaration of Independence
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2022 6:13 pm
by discovolante
Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2022 6:22 pm
by monkey
TopBadger wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 5:54 pm
monkey wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 4:41 pm
Labour... won't last long if the very first thing they do is renege on their campaigning.
Why not? The Tories do it successfully.
I'd rather have the Labour party in power and reneging on some things to get their policies through than have another 5 years of the Tories.
As would I, but a party with only a plurality is inherently unstable. Giving everyone the excuse to attack you before you have even started to govern is not going to help with that. They might pull it off, but people will remember 5 years later. Also, it's not only Labour that consistently rules out a Labour-SNP coalition - the SNP do it too and they would have similar considerations.
Tories get away with it because people expect that sort of thing of them, but seemingly they are less forgiving of other parties. I would say "see the Lib Dems", because they are the best example, but it's got a harder to do that in the last 7 years.
Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:45 pm
by Sciolus
IvanV wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 12:32 pm
Formerly AvP wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:56 am
...that the understanding that Scotland was in a voluntary association with the UK no longer applied. ...
That's taking it a bit far, Nicola. You had a referendum pretty recently and lost it. You were told it was a once in a generation chance. You could have thought carefully about it and chosen to have it a bit later. The next generation may well ask for and get another chance, because you were told it was a once in a generation chance. The question is not closed for the foreseeable, just closed for the immediate present, because you had your chance in the present.
I don't think it is a necessary condition of an association being voluntary that the exit party can demand referendums often, or at their own convenience. That would not be a democratically good way to settle the question. It increases the chance of random fluctuation leading to a result that is regretted shortly afterwards. Now when did that come up recently in a slightly different situation? At most once in a generation seems a reasonable rule.
I disagree, because the "once in a generation" thing was just campaign-speak with no authoritative basis; once in a generation is ill-defined and not a sensible basis for defining policy; circumstances can change enormously in considerably shorter times than whatever you decide once in a generation means; and the correct way to manage the risk of random fluctuations is to require a supermajority before making major constitutional changes.
Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence
Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2022 10:56 am
by IvanV
Sciolus wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:45 pm
...the correct way to manage the risk of random fluctuations is to require a supermajority before making major constitutional changes.
I agree, that would be a better way of doing it, and there are very good arguments for it. There is even precedent for doing that in Scotland. But I worry whether it is now feasible, after what happened over Brexit.
Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence
Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:04 am
by TopBadger
Sciolus wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:45 pm
I disagree, because the "once in a generation" thing was just campaign-speak with no authoritative basis; once in a generation is ill-defined and not a sensible basis for defining policy; circumstances can change enormously in considerably shorter times than whatever you decide once in a generation means; and the correct way to manage the risk of random fluctuations is to require a supermajority before making major constitutional changes.
A generation may be ill-defined, but I think any rational person would agree that it's not 9 years. A new generation is when kids have grown into adults and had kids on their own... most people would put that around 25 years (or maybe more now as people settle down later in life).
The SNP had their referendum, they lost with 45% wanting to leave the union. Whilst that's a significant amount, it's not a majority.
The SNP have won plenty of seats in Holyrood, but those elections are on a PR-like basis and last time out the SNP got... [drumroll]... 45% of the votes.
I.e. very little seems to have changed and so rather than viewing the UK government of being obstinate they should instead view it as the same outcome based on the same numbers.
If the SNP get >50% of the seats in Holyrood - then fair enough - give them another indie ref. But unless that happens I think Nicola will be waiting for 2039 and another 'generational' vote.
Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence
Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:49 am
by Woodchopper
TopBadger wrote: ↑Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:04 am
If the SNP get >50% of the seats in Holyrood - then fair enough - give them another indie ref. But unless that happens I think Nicola will be waiting for 2039 and another 'generational' vote.
Pro-independence parties do have more than 50% of the seats in the Holyrood parliament. Out of 129 MSPs there are 64 SNP and 7 with the
Scottish Green Party.
Re: Scotland: Universal Declaration of Independence
Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2022 12:08 pm
by TopBadger
Woodchopper wrote: ↑Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:49 am
TopBadger wrote: ↑Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:04 am
If the SNP get >50% of the seats in Holyrood - then fair enough - give them another indie ref. But unless that happens I think Nicola will be waiting for 2039 and another 'generational' vote.
Pro-independence parties do have more than 50% of the seats in the Holyrood parliament. Out of 129 MSPs there are 64 SNP and 7 with the
Scottish Green Party.
Then fair enough - let them have Indy Ref 2...