The Age of Brittle

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lpm
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Re: The Age of Brittle

Post by lpm » Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:17 am

Interesting, their approach is to reduce the complexity of having vast choice and instead keep it simple with staple goods. Shows that private companies in a largely unregulated sector will spend money on contingencies.

But if 1/5th of lorry drivers are off work, can even a simplified supply chain work? There are knock on effects throughout. For example, the pallet problem, now more evident as the shipping container problem - currently empty shipping containers are stacking up unused in Chinese ports and leaving a shortage elsewhere. Shipping going through the Port of Los Angeles is down 25%. The Heinz baked bean factory is a miracle of the modern age - but if haricot beans stop arriving from the US (grown in Washington state among others) then tins stop coming out the other end.

A Tescos contingency plan maintains the flow of staples to our homes still requires all the other upstream flows to continue.
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Gentleman Jim
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Re: The Age of Brittle

Post by Gentleman Jim » Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:22 am

Good job it's spring. Let's get planting and have our own Scrutable supply chain. Most of us must live within an easy and short drive from another member so as to make a web :) 8-)

eta No jam to be supplied though - that has to be stock-piled for post "No Deal" Britain ;)
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Re: The Age of Brittle

Post by dyqik » Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:06 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:17 am
Interesting, their approach is to reduce the complexity of having vast choice and instead keep it simple with staple goods. Shows that private companies in a largely unregulated sector will spend money on contingencies.

But if 1/5th of lorry drivers are off work, can even a simplified supply chain work? There are knock on effects throughout. For example, the pallet problem, now more evident as the shipping container problem - currently empty shipping containers are stacking up unused in Chinese ports and leaving a shortage elsewhere. Shipping going through the Port of Los Angeles is down 25%. The Heinz baked bean factory is a miracle of the modern age - but if haricot beans stop arriving from the US (grown in Washington state among others) then tins stop coming out the other end.
Haricot beans aren't anywhere near harvest yet in Washington, though. Probably at least 5 months before the next harvest. I'm guessing that the supply right now is of dried beans from last year, or from the southern hemisphere or low latitudes.

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lpm
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Re: The Age of Brittle

Post by lpm » Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:26 pm

Sure, but they will be stored near where they are grown. At least, we don't have bean mountains from the last harvest in the UK - we rely on regular arrivals of ships. We've maximised efficiency and minimised working capital tied up in stock - passing that cost onto the grower in South America or wherever.

Same with iPhones - stock will be about 30 days sales. Same with oil. Same with insulin.
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Re: The Age of Brittle

Post by dyqik » Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:29 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:26 pm
Sure, but they will be stored near where they are grown. At least, we don't have bean mountains from the last harvest in the UK - we rely on regular arrivals of ships. We've maximised efficiency and minimised working capital tied up in stock - passing that cost onto the grower in South America or wherever.

Same with iPhones - stock will be about 30 days sales. Same with oil. Same with insulin.
Sure. But storing and moving dried beans around needs a whole lot fewer people than harvesting them. Although the shipping container issue exists (and beyond shipping containers), beans can be bulk goods, moved around slowly, and warehoused. Which gives a lot more flexibility than moving fresh produce or milk around.

I wouldn't think of them as the first staple to be interrupted - I'd guess bread for the toast to go under them would interrupted earlier. And milk and eggs before that. We'll hear the screams if people who don't know what to do with these baked beans before we hear the screams of those that can't get baked beans.

Anyway, that's a massive diversion that doesn't change the fundamental point in your post.

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Re: The Age of Brittle

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:39 pm

Mrs PD works in the furniture industry, and her company is fairly well stocked currently, and is able to easily shift manufacturing from their current suppliers in China to India (and Vietnam, though that is now one of the restricted countries). Apparently, one of their competitors, the largest online furniture retailer, has increased lead times on some of its bestsellers to 18 weeks as they're struggling to shift the capacity elsewhere.

Furniture is, obviously, of huge importance in this crisis.
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Re: The Age of Brittle

Post by Gfamily » Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:41 pm

Probably worth getting some fresh dried yeast and strong flour for the bread maker.
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Re: The Age of Brittle

Post by Gentleman Jim » Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:44 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:39 pm
Mrs PD works in the furniture industry, and her company is fairly well stocked currently, and is able to easily shift manufacturing from their current suppliers in China to India (and Vietnam, though that is now one of the restricted countries). Apparently, one of their competitors, the largest online furniture retailer, has increased lead times on some of its bestsellers to 18 weeks as they're struggling to shift the capacity elsewhere.

Furniture is, obviously, of huge importance in this crisis.
Yep - people will just have to tuffet out

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Re: The Age of Brittle

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:52 pm

dyqik wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:06 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:17 am
Interesting, their approach is to reduce the complexity of having vast choice and instead keep it simple with staple goods. Shows that private companies in a largely unregulated sector will spend money on contingencies.

But if 1/5th of lorry drivers are off work, can even a simplified supply chain work? There are knock on effects throughout. For example, the pallet problem, now more evident as the shipping container problem - currently empty shipping containers are stacking up unused in Chinese ports and leaving a shortage elsewhere. Shipping going through the Port of Los Angeles is down 25%. The Heinz baked bean factory is a miracle of the modern age - but if haricot beans stop arriving from the US (grown in Washington state among others) then tins stop coming out the other end.
Haricot beans aren't anywhere near harvest yet in Washington, though. Probably at least 5 months before the next harvest. I'm guessing that the supply right now is of dried beans from last year, or from the southern hemisphere or low latitudes.
The southern hemisphere beans are probably grown in Ethiopia.

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Re: The Age of Brittle

Post by Martin Y » Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:26 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:52 pm
The southern hemisphere beans are probably grown in Ethiopia.
Rather than somewhere in the southern hemisphere, like Kenya?

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Re: The Age of Brittle

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:34 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:26 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:52 pm
The southern hemisphere beans are probably grown in Ethiopia.
Rather than somewhere in the southern hemisphere, like Kenya?
You're right, Ethiopia is just north of the equator.

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Re: The Age of Brittle

Post by lpm » Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:43 pm

dyqik wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:29 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:26 pm
Sure, but they will be stored near where they are grown. At least, we don't have bean mountains from the last harvest in the UK - we rely on regular arrivals of ships. We've maximised efficiency and minimised working capital tied up in stock - passing that cost onto the grower in South America or wherever.

Same with iPhones - stock will be about 30 days sales. Same with oil. Same with insulin.
Sure. But storing and moving dried beans around needs a whole lot fewer people than harvesting them. Although the shipping container issue exists (and beyond shipping containers), beans can be bulk goods, moved around slowly, and warehoused. Which gives a lot more flexibility than moving fresh produce or milk around.

I wouldn't think of them as the first staple to be interrupted - I'd guess bread for the toast to go under them would interrupted earlier. And milk and eggs before that. We'll hear the screams if people who don't know what to do with these baked beans before we hear the screams of those that can't get baked beans.

Anyway, that's a massive diversion that doesn't change the fundamental point in your post.
Yes, what I'm really trying to say is that everything is cross-correlated. Like a 2007 Asset Backed Security.

It's easy to say "For X, we can easily do this workaround. If Y happens we can do that. For Z there's this alternative." Which is what capitalism excels at - multiple different pathways to the outcome you want, so not a big deal if the cheapest is temporarily off the table.

This is about if X, Y and Z all happen at once because they are correlated, like in 2007 most mortgages in a sub-prime ABS getting into trouble at the same time. A situation where most rivers in Wales floods at the same time, most lorries leaving the country by ferry are delayed, most people struggling with credit card debt default at once.
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Re: The Age of Brittle

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:44 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:43 pm
dyqik wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:29 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:26 pm
Sure, but they will be stored near where they are grown. At least, we don't have bean mountains from the last harvest in the UK - we rely on regular arrivals of ships. We've maximised efficiency and minimised working capital tied up in stock - passing that cost onto the grower in South America or wherever.

Same with iPhones - stock will be about 30 days sales. Same with oil. Same with insulin.
Sure. But storing and moving dried beans around needs a whole lot fewer people than harvesting them. Although the shipping container issue exists (and beyond shipping containers), beans can be bulk goods, moved around slowly, and warehoused. Which gives a lot more flexibility than moving fresh produce or milk around.

I wouldn't think of them as the first staple to be interrupted - I'd guess bread for the toast to go under them would interrupted earlier. And milk and eggs before that. We'll hear the screams if people who don't know what to do with these baked beans before we hear the screams of those that can't get baked beans.

Anyway, that's a massive diversion that doesn't change the fundamental point in your post.
Yes, what I'm really trying to say is that everything is cross-correlated. Like a 2007 Asset Backed Security.

It's easy to say "For X, we can easily do this workaround. If Y happens we can do that. For Z there's this alternative." Which is what capitalism excels at - multiple different pathways to the outcome you want, so not a big deal if the cheapest is temporarily off the table.

This is about if X, Y and Z all happen at once because they are correlated, like in 2007 most mortgages in a sub-prime ABS getting into trouble at the same time. A situation where most rivers in Wales floods at the same time, most lorries leaving the country by ferry are delayed, most people struggling with credit card debt default at once.
Certainly, a systemic problem is most dangerous. I guess where we disagree is that IMHO relatively simple societies are much more at risk from systemic problems.

For example, the classic systemic problem is a drought which prevents food production. There's no point trying to eat grain instead of rice because every farm in the land is affected. In a simple economy that imports and exports very little a drought is a disaster. The simplicity means that your population is reliant upon one source of food - the local farm. Large parts of the population will die of hunger. In a more complex and richer economy its still possible to re-purpose other resources and import food, because droughts don't affect the whole planet.

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Re: The Age of Brittle

Post by Pucksoppet » Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:38 pm

Gentleman Jim wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:44 pm
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:39 pm
Mrs PD works in the furniture industry, and her company is fairly well stocked currently, and is able to easily shift manufacturing from their current suppliers in China to India (and Vietnam, though that is now one of the restricted countries). Apparently, one of their competitors, the largest online furniture retailer, has increased lead times on some of its bestsellers to 18 weeks as they're struggling to shift the capacity elsewhere.

Furniture is, obviously, of huge importance in this crisis.
Yep - people will just have to tuffet out

<cowers in the bad pun corner>
Well, for many ostriches people, it's a case of sofa, so good.

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Re: The Age of Brittle

Post by Gfamily » Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:52 pm

Pucksoppet wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:38 pm
Gentleman Jim wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:44 pm
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:39 pm
Furniture is, obviously, of huge importance in this crisis.
Yep - people will just have to tuffet out

<cowers in the bad pun corner>
Well, for many ostriches people, it's a case of sofa, so good.
Sighed! Bored now!
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

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Re: The Age of Brittle

Post by plodder » Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:43 pm


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