Australia is on fire

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Fishnut
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Australia is on fire

Post by Fishnut » Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:33 pm

Bush fire season is in full swing and it's only November. Yet the Deputy Prime Minister thinks that discussing climate change right now is a "disgrace" and are just "the ravings of some pure, enlightened and woke capital city greenies.”

How many millions of hectares have to burn, how many homes destroyed, how many lives lost, before the Australian government admits that climate change is real and the country is facing catastrophe if it doesn't act?

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bjn
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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by bjn » Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:49 pm

They don’t care and some actually believe what they are saying. A chap I went to school with is now a conservative lobbyist in Queensland, so I get a glimpse into that world. There’s genuine belief that the science is all made up pinko nonsense. They are far scarier than the pure political players.

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rockdoctor
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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by rockdoctor » Tue Nov 12, 2019 4:26 pm

I'm impressed that Australia has come up with yet another way to kill people

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jimbob
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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by jimbob » Tue Nov 12, 2019 4:41 pm

rockdoctor wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 4:26 pm
I'm impressed that Australia has come up with yet another way to kill people
Well they seem to have even managed volcanic eruptions within the time of oral history.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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basementer
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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by basementer » Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:04 pm

Morning news on Radio NZ:
"The fire risk rating for Sydney will drop three ranks today, to Very High."
:shock:
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jimbob
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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by jimbob » Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:20 pm

basementer wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:04 pm
Morning news on Radio NZ:
"The fire risk rating for Sydney will drop three ranks today, to Very High."
:shock:
Yes the ratings are a bit like that:

https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-pre ... er-ratings
FIRE DANGER RATING WHAT YOU SHOULD DO
CATASTROPHIC
For your survival, leaving early is the only option.

Leave bush fire prone areas the night before or early in the day – do not just wait and see what happens.

Make a decision about when you will leave, where you will go, how you will get there and when you will return.

Homes are not designed to withstand fires in catastrophic conditions so you should leave early.

EXTREME
Leaving early is the safest option for your survival.

If you are not prepared to the highest level, leave early in the day.

Only consider staying if you are prepared to the highest level – such as your home is specially designed, constructed or modified, and situated to withstand a fire, you are well prepared and can actively defend it if a fire starts.

SEVERE
Leaving early is the safest option for your survival.

Well prepared homes that are actively defended can provide safety – but only stay if you are physically and mentally prepared to defend in these conditions.

If you're not prepared, leave early in the day.

VERY HIGH
HIGH
LOW MODERATE
Review your bush fire survival plan with your family. Keep yourself informed and monitor conditions. Be ready to act if necessary.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:23 pm

There are really only two ranks:

Actually On Fire.

About To Be Actually On Fire.

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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by shpalman » Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:25 pm

rockdoctor wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 4:26 pm
I'm impressed that Australia has come up with yet another way to kill people
In Australia even the birds kill with fire.

(See also video on facebook)
molto tricky

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Fishnut
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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by Fishnut » Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:05 pm

bjn wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:49 pm
They don’t care and some actually believe what they are saying. A chap I went to school with is now a conservative lobbyist in Queensland, so I get a glimpse into that world. There’s genuine belief that the science is all made up pinko nonsense. They are far scarier than the pure political players.
I guess the question then is how do we counter this? I was listening to a podcast that explained that the reason climate change has become so politicised is that a lot of the solutions require government intervention and global responses which goes very much against the small government ethos of the right. It's therefore seen as a left-wing plot to expand government. Are there any ways to address those fears? Are there ways of talking about climate change in a way that deniers would listen to?

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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by bmforre » Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:46 pm

California has been burning too this autumn.
Ought that to have its own thread?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ca ... _wildfires

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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by jimbob » Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:52 pm

bmforre wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:46 pm
California has been burning too this autumn.
Ought that to have its own thread?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ca ... _wildfires
Possibly - especially with his attitude to providing help to Russia but not California

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump ... alifornia/
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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bjn
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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by bjn » Tue Nov 12, 2019 10:52 pm

Fishnut wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:05 pm
bjn wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:49 pm
They don’t care and some actually believe what they are saying. A chap I went to school with is now a conservative lobbyist in Queensland, so I get a glimpse into that world. There’s genuine belief that the science is all made up pinko nonsense. They are far scarier than the pure political players.
I guess the question then is how do we counter this? I was listening to a podcast that explained that the reason climate change has become so politicised is that a lot of the solutions require government intervention and global responses which goes very much against the small government ethos of the right. It's therefore seen as a left-wing plot to expand government. Are there any ways to address those fears? Are there ways of talking about climate change in a way that deniers would listen to?
The right doesn’t mind government intervention, so long as it’s the right kind of government intervention (the Adani mine is going to get hundreds of millions in subsidies). The main problem is that several very large very rich industries have everything to lose should proper action be taken. They’ve fought change tooth and nail and painted the regulation needed as pinko commie b.llsh.t. The stupider elements believe that, the smarter ones now think climate change is real but exaggerated for pinko commie b.llsh.t ends.

There are market based mechanisms that would help in mitigating climate change, simply by putting a price on emitted carbon. But the incumbent industries don’t want it. Oil and coal are soon to be dead industries anyway, due to the economics of renewables. Their denying both the environmental costs of their businesses and their imminent demise is just inflicting more damage on all of us.

Within 10 years though, they’ll both be collapsing rapidly and their deaths won’t come soon enough.

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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by Chris Preston » Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:07 pm

Fishnut wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:05 pm
bjn wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:49 pm
They don’t care and some actually believe what they are saying. A chap I went to school with is now a conservative lobbyist in Queensland, so I get a glimpse into that world. There’s genuine belief that the science is all made up pinko nonsense. They are far scarier than the pure political players.
I guess the question then is how do we counter this? I was listening to a podcast that explained that the reason climate change has become so politicised is that a lot of the solutions require government intervention and global responses which goes very much against the small government ethos of the right. It's therefore seen as a left-wing plot to expand government. Are there any ways to address those fears? Are there ways of talking about climate change in a way that deniers would listen to?
Probably not. There has been a well-orchestrated campaign to denigrate climate change as a socialist plot to take over the world. Some people have become susceptible to this due to confirmation bias. Tackling climate change will inevitably lead to higher power prices (although in Australia we got these anyway without doing much at all to tackle climate change) and people having to change they way they live. If it is all a conspiracy, then you don't have to worry about it.

At the political level in Australia climate change management is getting more support across both parties. However, at the top of the conservative parties there remain those who are finding ways to delay action. This is not helped by a small number of politicians actively promoting the coal industry. The resources minister Matt Canavan is pushing for the building of new coal-fired power stations.
Here grows much rhubarb.

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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by dyqik » Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:09 pm

The higher power prices is not a given. Right now, building new renewables is cheaper than operating existing coal plants in the US and Europe.

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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by bjn » Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:22 pm

dyqik wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:09 pm
The higher power prices is not a given. Right now, building new renewables is cheaper than operating existing coal plants in the US and Europe.
The prices for renewables are continuing to drop and goodness knows where the floor is. Coal is going to be a dead industry soon enough. But it will cause horrendous problems as it goes kicking to it's grave.

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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by Chris Preston » Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:27 pm

Every place that has so far moved has found replacing coal with renewables has increased power costs.

Over the longer run, this may not continue, particularly as economies of scale are making some renewable infrastructure cheaper.

On the transition to renewables in South Australia, the incentives to get renewables in place and the costs of managing the network during the change resulted in higher power prices. It is not so much the electricity that is more expensive, but the costs associated with the infrastructure and management.

As older coal fired power plants reach the ends of their lives, the costs of replacement are so significant in Australia that companies have balked at building new ones - hence Canavan wanting the Government to make it happen. They have chosen less risky options.
Here grows much rhubarb.

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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by username » Tue Nov 26, 2019 11:30 pm

Looks like rain, thank f.ck.
The half-truths, repeated, authenticated themselves.

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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by bmforre » Wed Nov 27, 2019 6:39 am

Chris Preston wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:27 pm
Every place that has so far moved has found replacing coal with renewables has increased power costs.

Over the longer run, this may not continue, particularly as economies of scale are making some renewable infrastructure cheaper.

On the transition to renewables in South Australia, the incentives to get renewables in place and the costs of managing the network during the change resulted in higher power prices. It is not so much the electricity that is more expensive, but the costs associated with the infrastructure and management.

As older coal fired power plants reach the ends of their lives, the costs of replacement are so significant in Australia that companies have balked at building new ones - hence Canavan wanting the Government to make it happen. They have chosen less risky options.
Parts of Australia have trade winds I believe? These are particularly well suited to deliver stable wind power.

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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by bjn » Wed Nov 27, 2019 7:25 am

According to this article for the years 2008-2017 increased use of renewables in the USA either didn’t affect the wholesale electricity cost, or reduced it somewhat. That’s with older more expensive renewable generation plant than is available now.

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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by bmforre » Wed Nov 27, 2019 7:26 pm

bjn wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 7:25 am
According to this article for the years 2008-2017 increased use of renewables in the USA either didn’t affect the wholesale electricity cost, or reduced it somewhat. That’s with older more expensive renewable generation plant than is available now.
Quoting your ArsTechnica link:
Wholesale prices are dropping, though mostly due to natural gas.

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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by bjn » Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:54 pm

bmforre wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 7:26 pm
bjn wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 7:25 am
According to this article for the years 2008-2017 increased use of renewables in the USA either didn’t affect the wholesale electricity cost, or reduced it somewhat. That’s with older more expensive renewable generation plant than is available now.
Quoting your ArsTechnica link:
Wholesale prices are dropping, though mostly due to natural gas.
I was replying to Chris's post where he said renewables drive up electricity prices, this article shows that they haven't in the US. They were either neutral or drove the cost down marginally, which I thought I said. From the same article.
But renewables have had an influence as well. That influence has ranged from roughly neutral to a cost reduction of $2.2 per MWh in California, largely driven by solar. While the impact of renewables was relatively minor, it is the second-largest influence after natural gas prices, and the data shows that wind and solar are reducing prices rather than increasing them.
This was for the renewables installed between 2008-2017. Given that since 2010, the cost (LCOE) has declined by 88% for solar and 71% for onshore wind, and continue to fall. Do that same calculation over the next 10 years and renewables will have a similar impact in driving prices down as did gas, as industrial scale solar is now cheaper than gas for many parts of the world.

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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by bmforre » Thu Nov 28, 2019 3:35 am

That should work well in California where solar electricity can power air condition needed to cool houses against sun heat. It cannot warm us in winter in Northern climates.

At present we have sunrise 09:18 and sunset 14:54 here I live and the Sun is not much above the landscape at all so 10 to 14 and low solar angle is more realistic.
Germany, a way south from Norway, doesn't get much power from solar either at this time of year. Therefor that the cost (LCOE) has declined by 88% for solar is of limited help here now.

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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by bjn » Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:20 am

We are getting off topic. As I’ve said before, the population in the high latitudes is a statistical blip in terms of population and carbon emissions. The vast majority live much closer to the equator where it is much more relevant.

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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by FlammableFlower » Thu Nov 28, 2019 9:13 am

Yesterday I had lunch with some visitors of the Future Industries Institute in Adelaide. They're over interviewing our students for placements. It was interesting chatting to them about things like energy security and climate and related technologies.

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Re: Australia is on fire

Post by bmforre » Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:36 am

bjn wrote:
Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:20 am
We are getting off topic. As I’ve said before, the population in the high latitudes is a statistical blip in terms of population and carbon emissions. The vast majority live much closer to the equator where it is much more relevant.
So Germany is a statistical blip and Sahara is the future?

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