Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

[Blackcountryboy]

Presumably we can (or someone can) add up the UK numbers in each category?

Shouldn't be any issues with double counting in the first 5. But category 6 will be hard to quantify?

At 86 I am in Category 2, but don't expect to get it soon. That order in that category will be broken down according to Underlying health conditions (I don't have any), ethnicity (I am white or should you not describe yourself as white these days) and deprivation (live in one of the "posher" areas of Dudley)

[discovolante]

Is anyone registered in this board actually under the impression that most of us are unlikely to get the vaccine for several months at least? Assuming Tom p's post is not grounds for caution. I've psychologically prepped myself for another year at the moment. Always subject to review one way or the other.

[lpm]

At 86 I am in Category 2, but don't expect to get it soon. That order in that category will be broken down according to Underlying health conditions (I don't have any), ethnicity (I am white or should you not describe yourself as white these days) and deprivation (live in one of the "posher" areas of Dudley)

I bet GPs in posher areas will organise it better than GPs in deprived areas, but I would expect you to go to an army centre at a Birmingham football stadium or something.

There won't be any ordering by health conditions or ethnicity within those categories.

I think you'll be our first forum guinea pig towards the end of January. Let us know if you turn into a lizard.

[lpm]

Is anyone registered in this board actually under the impression that most of us are unlikely to get the vaccine for several months at least? Assuming Tom p's post is not grounds for caution. I've psychologically prepped myself for another year at the moment. Always subject to review one way or the other.

The more vaccine refusers, the quicker it will be. If there are 25 million in the 9 categories, you'd be bumped up the queue by 5 million people if only 80% take it. Well worth spreading conspiracy theories to get that percentage down as low as possible.

[Bird on a Fire]

These days, if you describe yourself as white, you'll be arrested and thrown in jail.

By rights, prisoners ought to be nearer the front of the queue as, much like care homes, they're in an institutional setting with increased risk of transmission. Won't happen, though.

[lpm]

Huh? It's being very old that kills people in care homes, not the fact they're essentially locked up in care homes.

[Bird on a Fire]

That's why I wrote "transmission" rather than "dying".

[lpm]

Why is everyone going on about the cold storage thing and -70 degrees? The BBC is going on about how it can be stored for 6 months. Who the f.ck is going to want to store the vaccine?

It can easily be off the production line and within the arm of a person in Dudley within 6 days.

[shpalman]

How many doses will get thrown away towards the end of January because they were moved to normal fridges while it turned out that the bottleneck was organizing the throughput of people to be vaccinated?

[shpalman]

That wiki says 2.9 million.

Yes, you're right.

Category 1: 0.4m

Category 2: 2.5m, plus approx 0.5m frontline health and social carers?

Category 3: 2.0m

Category 4: 2.5m, plus unknown "extremely vulnerable"

Category 5: 3.0m

Total: 10.9 million

Category 6: Unknown "higher risk"

Category 7: 3.8m (less people already in categories 4, 6 or frontline health)

Category 8: 3.6m (less ditto)

Category 9: 4.1m (less ditto)

Something like 25 million before under 50s start to get a look in?

The UK has been promised 40 million doses by the spring - enough to give the required two jabs to health and care workers and everyone over 65... the original expectation that there could be 10 million doses by the end of the year is already looking ambitious.

10 million doses would cover everyone over 75, basically.

[PeteB]

EU warns of risks of COVID-19 vaccine race after UK approval of Pfizer shot

The European Medicines Agency (EMA), which is in charge of approving COVID-19 vaccines for the EU, said its longer procedure to approve vaccines was more appropriate as it was based on more evidence and required more checks than the emergency procedure chosen by Britain.

[shpalman]

organised crime networks may try to sell fake Covid-19 vaccines or steal real Covid-19 vaccines

[Sciolus]

The UK has been promised 40 million doses by the spring - enough to give the required two jabs to health and care workers and everyone over 65... the original expectation that there could be 10 million doses by the end of the year is already looking ambitious.

10 million doses would cover everyone over 75, basically.

Biontech bloke just said on WATO that they would only deliver half that, around 5 million doses, by the end of the year.

[shpalman]

The UK has been promised 40 million doses by the spring - enough to give the required two jabs to health and care workers and everyone over 65... the original expectation that there could be 10 million doses by the end of the year is already looking ambitious.

10 million doses would cover everyone over 75, basically.

Biontech bloke just said on WATO that they would only deliver half that, around 5 million doses, by the end of the year.

So not really enough for everyone over 80, then.

Not that I expect local GPs to be able to organize everything that quickly.

[Martin_B]

How many doses will get thrown away towards the end of January because they were moved to normal fridges while it turned out that the bottleneck was organizing the throughput of people to be vaccinated?

Probably very little. My dad's been involved (very peripherally) with plans in the Surrey/Hampshire border area. Planning is well underway. Maybe my Dad's lucky because his area has a significant military presence, but the planning includes calling on organised charity groups (Rotary, Hedgehogs, Lions, etc) because they have experience of admin, marshalling and crowd control, and often knowledge of, and dealing with, vulnerable groups.

[sTeamTraen]

organised crime networks may try to sell fake Covid-19 vaccines or steal real Covid-19 vaccines

Stealing the real vaccine seems a bit unlikely (I can't imagine clinics buying a bunch of doses off a bloke in the pub), but I'm sure there will be lots of scams, eg "Here's your appointment, please pay £20 online now as your contribution to the NHS's costs" by email.

[headshot]

At 86 I am in Category 2, but don't expect to get it soon. That order in that category will be broken down according to Underlying health conditions (I don't have any), ethnicity (I am white or should you not describe yourself as white these days) and deprivation (live in one of the "posher" areas of Dudley)

I bet GPs in posher areas will organise it better than GPs in deprived areas, but I would expect you to go to an army centre at a Birmingham football stadium or something.

There won't be any ordering by health conditions or ethnicity within those categories.

I think you'll be our first forum guinea pig towards the end of January. Let us know if you turn into a lizard.

My understanding is that Black Country folk will spontaneously combust if they cross the M5, so it'll have to be at Wolves...though West Bromwich Albion might form an enclave.

[Herainestold]

organised crime networks may try to sell fake Covid-19 vaccines or steal real Covid-19 vaccines

Stealing the real vaccine seems a bit unlikely (I can't imagine clinics buying a bunch of doses off a bloke in the pub), but I'm sure there will be lots of scams, eg "Here's your appointment, please pay £20 online now as your contribution to the NHS's costs" by email.

Get in early and start one of those scams now, before the market is saturated.

[Blackcountryboy]

At 86 I am in Category 2, but don't expect to get it soon. That order in that category will be broken down according to Underlying health conditions (I don't have any), ethnicity (I am white or should you not describe yourself as white these days) and deprivation (live in one of the "posher" areas of Dudley)

I bet GPs in posher areas will organise it better than GPs in deprived areas, but I would expect you to go to an army centre at a Birmingham football stadium or something.

There won't be any ordering by health conditions or ethnicity within those categories.

I think you'll be our first forum guinea pig towards the end of January. Let us know if you turn into a lizard.

My understanding is that Black Country folk will spontaneously combust if they cross the M5, so it'll have to be at Wolves...though West Bromwich Albion might form an enclave.

I should be alright as I was born in the Black Country but have lived in Pedmore for the last 50+ years, I am one of those who love the Black Country and would do anything for it except live there.
I hope lpm is right that there won't be any ordering by health conditions or ethnicity within those categories, that isn't what they said on the press conference this morning.

[tom p]

This is what a considered, but express, authorisation looks like
So is this
And this is what indecent haste for pathetic jingoistic purposes looks like
There is no chance that Pfizer provided their data to the MHRA earlier than providing it to the EMA. The MHRA has rushed through approval in 1 day. 1. Day.
I never thought the MHRA would be corrupted by this government. I knew that there would be a race to be the first to approve a vaccine, but I assumed that they would at least make a show of doing even a cursory check of the data, maybe give it a week, but no. Shameful. This is drug approval by press release.
There is no part of the state that won't be abused and broken by this government. If you are living in the UK, you have to assume that the rule of law will no longer apply.

Does the MHRA have the expertise or resources to properly approve stuff? Has it been able to set itself up as a full replacement for the EMA yet? IIRC, before Brexit MHRA and EMA had different roles, and the former had to take on the latter's duties within the last couple of years. Or am I talking crap?

EMA coordinates and does some types of work. Most assessment work, importantly assessment of marketing authorisation applications) is done by NCAs (e.g. MHRA & equivalent acronyms in other countries). EMA collect the payment, arrange for one NCA to assess & another to be co-assessor & sort payment to those NCAs for doing the work.
MHRA used to do about 1/3 of all such work. Now they need to do it all themselves, i.e. triple their workforce, but for the past 2 years they have had no such work to do 'cos of the long timelines and last-minute extensions. They must be utterly f.cked financially right now.

[tom p]

EU warns of risks of COVID-19 vaccine race after UK approval of Pfizer shot

The European Medicines Agency (EMA), which is in charge of approving COVID-19 vaccines for the EU, said its longer procedure to approve vaccines was more appropriate as it was based on more evidence and required more checks than the emergency procedure chosen by Britain.

Yes. It's v. risky.
It's also interesting that what the MHRA have actually approved is the use of specific batches of the vaccine, while trumpeting that they have authorised the medicine. This is more like what Russia did in claiming they had authorised the vaccine in the summer, when in fact it was really a glorified Phase III trial.
Johnson's complete b.llsh.t is infecting even the most respectable of agencies.

[JQH]

What's the correct term for government by bullshitters?

[Gfamily]

What's the correct term for government by bullshitters?

A Boscoprarchy?

[sTeamTraen]

What's the correct term for government by bullshitters?

I've learned a couple of new words recently: Kakistocracy is government by the worst people, and Ochlocracy is government by the mob. I think the "Kaki" bit may imply excrement.

How about Tauroskatocracy?

[basementer]

What's the correct term for government by bullshitters?

I've learned a couple of new words recently: Kakistocracy is government by the worst people, and Ochlocracy is government by the mob. I think the "Kaki" bit may imply excrement.

How about Tauroskatocracy?

That mixes Latin and Greek. For consistency it would be Bous - something - cracy.