B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
Post Reply
User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 4389
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:02 pm

Thread on the B.1.1.529 variant
https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1463846528578109444

tl;dr

Spreading rapidly in South Africa, and "starting to see generalised community transmission (as opposed to just cluster outbreaks)"

Has mutations which are associated with it escaping immunity and being more transmissible.

But a lot remains unknown.

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 4389
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:04 pm


User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 4389
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:07 pm

Video by Professor Tulio de Oliveira, who known more than anyone about Covid in South Africa.
https://twitter.com/Newzroom405/status/ ... 84837?s=20

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 4389
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:10 pm

As with everything else its best to wait and see until we get more information.

It appears that the variant is relatively easy to detect with a PCR test so we should get some confirmation soon as to whether it is actually rapidly displacing Delta in South Africa. If it doesn't we probably don't need to worry about it.

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 4389
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:26 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:02 pm
Thread on the B.1.1.529 variant
https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1463846528578109444

tl;dr

Spreading rapidly in South Africa, and "starting to see generalised community transmission (as opposed to just cluster outbreaks)"

Has mutations which are associated with it escaping immunity and being more transmissible.

But a lot remains unknown.
There are now just 100 confirmed cases. But as with Alpha, S gene dropout appears to be a good proxy for the spread of B.1.1.529, and the reports of rapid community spread in provinces of South Africa are based upon this method.

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 4389
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:59 pm


User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 4389
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Nov 25, 2021 4:16 pm

More on the spread in South Africa: https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/146 ... 74626?s=21

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 4389
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Nov 25, 2021 4:58 pm

Dramatic thread by Tulio de Olivera:
https://twitter.com/tuliodna/status/146 ... 60130?s=21

If you haven’t been following him over the past couple of years he’s South Africa’s leading virologist.

Hunting Dog
Clardic Fug
Posts: 217
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:48 pm

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by Hunting Dog » Thu Nov 25, 2021 7:17 pm

Re; the appeal for support for South Africa, the Tale of Two Pandemics article in the graun brought things home to me

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 4389
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Nov 25, 2021 8:12 pm


User avatar
shpalman
Light of Blast
Posts: 5894
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by shpalman » Thu Nov 25, 2021 8:50 pm

molto tricky

User avatar
Stranger Mouse
Snowbonk
Posts: 425
Joined: Sat Dec 21, 2019 1:23 pm

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by Stranger Mouse » Thu Nov 25, 2021 9:52 pm

As a layman trying to protect a 93 year old how much should I be sh.tting myself?
A caterpillar does all the work but the butterfly gets all the publicity.

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 4389
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Nov 25, 2021 10:53 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 9:52 pm
As a layman trying to protect a 93 year old how much should I be sh.tting myself?
It’s too early to order new trousers.

It appears to be spreading rapidly in South Africa. But they are at a low ebb anyway so we are still looking at a small number of cases. We have yet to see whether it’ll result in mass infection.

The population of South Africa is different to that of the UK. As far as I remember about 20% of the South African population has been double vaccinated. So we don’t know what will happen in a population with much higher levels (including booster doses). That said, there has been a lot of natural infection in South Africa so much more people will have antibodies.

We also don’t know whether the new variant causes death or serious illness at the same rate as Delta.

We should get some answers to these issues within the next few weeks.

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 4389
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:00 pm


User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 4389
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Nov 26, 2021 3:02 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:00 pm
Detailed thread on the mutations: https://twitter.com/jcbarret/status/146 ... 97923?s=21
And another: https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1 ... 84705?s=21

User avatar
shpalman
Light of Blast
Posts: 5894
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by shpalman » Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:21 am

A tracker of new Nu variant news around the world: https://newsnodes.com/nu_tracker

Frankly it's probably all over the place already.
molto tricky

User avatar
jimbob
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3006
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by jimbob » Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:17 am

shpalman wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:21 am
A tracker of new Nu variant news around the world: https://newsnodes.com/nu_tracker

Frankly it's probably all over the place already.
Yup
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

Lydia Gwilt
Stargoon
Posts: 140
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:05 pm

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by Lydia Gwilt » Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:53 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 4:58 pm
Dramatic thread by Tulio de Olivera:
https://twitter.com/tuliodna/status/146 ... 60130?s=21

If you haven’t been following him over the past couple of years he’s South Africa’s leading virologist.
According to himself! He's also a smug self-publicising loose cannon.
He started a baseless panic in the summer that led to more than a million doses of perfectly good vaccine being trashed, and put back the SA vaccination programme by at least 6 months ( who knows how many people died as a result) - as a result of misinterpreting sequence data and going straight to the press, before discussing it with public health or anyone else. If you mention this to him he is completely unrepentant.

He's done the same with this, there was a slight rise in cases in Gauteng province, he sequenced 2000 samples of which 22 were this new variant - 0.1% so most unlikely to be the cause of the rise. His first port of call was the press - international panic, 6 southern African countries completely blocked and economies well on the way to being trashed again. Well done, de Olivera!

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 4389
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:12 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 8:50 pm
travel restrictions
EU commission proposed activating “the emergency brake to stop air travel from the southern African region due to the variant of concern B.1.1.529.”
https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/ ... 98018?s=21

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 4389
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:14 pm

jimbob wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:17 am
shpalman wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:21 am
A tracker of new Nu variant news around the world: https://newsnodes.com/nu_tracker

Frankly it's probably all over the place already.
Yup

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has said that Israel is “on the verge of an emergency, and I ask everyone to be fully prepared and harnessed for work around the clock” after a case of the South African B.1.1.529 coronavirus variant was discovered in Israel.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/sou ... ael-687074

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 4389
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:29 pm


BioNTech will take two weeks to assess vaccine against latest Covid variant

BioNTech will know in two weeks whether the vaccine it developed with Pfizer will work against the new B.1.1.529 variant of Covid that has emerged in southern Africa.

The German company says it is testing the vaccine against the strain in the lab. A spokesperson said the variant “differs significantly from previously observed variants” because of additional mutations on the spike protein, which vaccines target.

“Pfizer and BioNTech have taken actions months ago to be able to adapt the mRNA vaccine within six weeks and ship initial batches within 100 days in the event of an escape variant,” she said.

“To that end, the companies have begun clinical trials with variant-specific vaccines (alpha and delta) to collect safety and tolerability data that can be provided to regulators.”
From the FTs rolling update

hakwright
Bank Butt
Posts: 31
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:58 pm

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by hakwright » Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:45 pm

It's kind of quirky that this B.1.1.529 variant is likely to be given the Greek letter designation "Nu".

Given previous (expected) anglicised mispronunciations of Greek letters, we can expect:
"Have you heard about that new covid variant?"
"What's it called?"
"The Nu variant"
"Yes but what's it called"

(The Greek pronunciation is "Ni", a bit more Monty Pythonesque...)

Silliness aside, it will be a nervous time watching how this variant spreads and what data starts to emerge about infectiousness, health impacts, vaccine resistance etc. A new nastier variant was always on the cards, and this could turn into the next nasty one we have to deal with.

Howard

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 4389
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:48 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:12 pm
shpalman wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 8:50 pm
travel restrictions
EU commission proposed activating “the emergency brake to stop air travel from the southern African region due to the variant of concern B.1.1.529.”
https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/ ... 98018?s=21
Looks like a plane load of people who flew from South Africa to the Netherlands have been refused permission to disembark.

User avatar
shpalman
Light of Blast
Posts: 5894
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by shpalman » Fri Nov 26, 2021 1:38 pm

hakwright wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:45 pm
It's kind of quirky that this B.1.1.529 variant is likely to be given the Greek letter designation "Nu".

Given previous (expected) anglicised mispronunciations of Greek letters, we can expect:
"Have you heard about that new covid variant?"
"What's it called?"
"The Nu variant"
"Yes but what's it called"
WHO's on first?
molto tricky

User avatar
shpalman
Light of Blast
Posts: 5894
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by shpalman » Fri Nov 26, 2021 1:41 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:12 pm
shpalman wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 8:50 pm
travel restrictions
EU commission proposed activating “the emergency brake to stop air travel from the southern African region due to the variant of concern B.1.1.529.”
https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/ ... 98018?s=21
The planes will all stall.
molto tricky

Post Reply