Covid-19 the unlockdown

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shpalman
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:56 pm

molto tricky

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Brightonian » Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:54 am

Did Bournemouth beach crowds spread coronavirus? A Betteridge answer, with the BBC saying "the statistics do not suggest a significant spike in coronavirus cases".

Though what do they mean by "significant"? They say local cases went up from 1.3 to 2.0 per 100,000, but would a lot a people have come from Birmingham, London, Southampton etc.?

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Sat Jul 25, 2020 8:20 am

Brightonian wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:54 am
Did Bournemouth beach crowds spread coronavirus? A Betteridge answer, with the BBC saying "the statistics do not suggest a significant spike in coronavirus cases".

Though what do they mean by "significant"? They say local cases went up from 1.3 to 2.0 per 100,000, but would a lot a people have come from Birmingham, London, Southampton etc.?
This does not mean the crowds didn't bring Covid-19 to the town - just that any arrival of the virus in Bournemouth was not spread significantly.

We also don't know if visitors spread the infection among themselves and then returned with it to their home areas.
So basically we don't know anything.

However it does seem that "outdoor" touristy things in sparsely-populated areas are not a big risk compared to normal big city life. Things might have been completely different if the pubs had have been open.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by jimbob » Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:04 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:56 pm
So the law in the UK is just now more of a guideline than a rule and you can just choose to ignore it based on whether you can be bothered?

Given that masks should have been made mandatory back in March so doing it only now looks kind of pointless as far as the aksually masks don't aksually stop you getting covid brigade are concerned,* you still have about 600 new cases a day and I reckon it's been trending upwards for the past couple of weeks since the government gave the virus a head start against masks.

* - they have a point, in terms of the government having completely lost control of the situation, but it's never too late to do the right thing.
The upturn seems to have stalled a bit, luckily.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by basementer » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:01 am

Charity muggers reproliferate.
Things are getting back to normal now, worse luck.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by PeteB » Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:20 pm

Image

What happened around 4th July to tip R > 1 ?

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by discovolante » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:16 am

FFS

Yes if the virus is spreading because of indoor gatherings then you want to be vigilant at a time when it is likely that there will be a lot more indoor gatherings.

But blaming individuals for not 'social distancing' indoors (but you MUST go out to the shops and pubs and restaurants or you will be punished) and seemingly completely failing to acknowledge the impact this is having on people - just as a matter of courtesy, which I am sure would have been done if this had happened at Christmas - is sh.t.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:50 pm

Well, the measures which were in force for the past two weeks in Lombardy, which were only a slight easing of the measures for the previous two weeks, which were relatively not very unlocked at all compared to the rest of Italy or the way things were here in June, have now been prolonged until the 10th of September.

(Coronavirus - Ultimi provvedimenti)

Don't ask me why the banner looks like Blockbuster Video.

Meanwhile, the prime minister Conte did ask that his emergency powers be extended until the end of the year. Of course there was lots of shouting and whining from the opposition, but they are generally terrible terrible people anyway. Those powers are necessary in order to activate lockdowns quickly if things go all to f.ck again.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:21 am

molto tricky

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:58 am

1. UK govt thinks R is 0.9 to 1.0. From a high base of thousands per day instead of hundreds

2. Others think it's 1.0 to 1.1. Cases are definitely curving up a bit but testing is getting better

3. Johnson claims to press the brake pedal a touch. But he's lying, it's actually delaying new unlocking, so comparable to not accelerating. The call for office workers to return to the office remains, so a touch of acceleration there

4. In theory, maintaining current unlockdown level maintains current R. Local measures deal with local spikes

5. Current lockdown benefits from outside lifestyle: beer gardens, pavement cafes, beaches, parks, family BBQs

6. Schools must restart in Sept. For the first time, govt advisors have hinted something else must be lockdowned to compensate for the huge unlockdown effect of proper schools

7. But Sept is also when we start to lose the outside lifestyle benefit

8. But maybe testing and trace will improve, local intervention techniques will improve?

What am I missing? Can we even hold R to 1.0 to 1.1 till Sept? Can test and trace improvements compensate for schools? Or is a Sept surge inevitable without a large compensating lockdown like shutting all pubs again?
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by headshot » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:02 am

Masks...everywhere, all the time.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by AMS » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:10 am

headshot wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:02 am
Masks...everywhere, all the time.
Whether it's enough, I don't know, but this is by some distance the easiest option, so why not?

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:21 am

Encouraging people to go back to work in offices is massively irresponsible. Working from home should continue till it's safe, at the very very least on a voluntary basis. Free childcare from schools makes that a bit easier.

Enhanced hygiene regimes will be important too, wiping people's fluids off everything.

And people can still be outside in winter. Loads of places on the continent, from Belgium to Scandinavia, have outside seating for cafes and bars all through the winter even with snow on the ground. Umbrellas, heating and blankets - it's not rocket science. (Hopefully the decreased number of car journeys offsets the climate impacts a bit)
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by mediocrity511 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:24 pm

Personally I think schools will need to go part time "blended learning". Current plans for reopening them do not fill me with confidence, if you look at the latest slogan "hands, face, space", well the schools plan only actually encompasses hands and even then with no extra funds budgeted for extra handwashing facilities or cleaning.

Part time could work well with proper planning, with the actual new material taught in class with consolidation work set at home for afterwards. It does of course throw up massive childcare issues. However, it's easier to sort out childcare for a specified period of time, rather than trying to manage the disruption of repeated bubbles closing, teacher shortages and self isolation that will happen if the return isnt carefully managed.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by jimbob » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:23 pm

From the "Trafford Express" on Facebook - motto "Fake news you can trust"
In Manchester, you can be sacked for refusing to go and sit with someone in an office, fined £100 for sitting with them at home, and given a money-off deal to sit with them in a busy restaurant.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by Brightonian » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:42 pm

Opti wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:47 pm
I foresee new 'lockdown' measures here in Andalusia imminently. Bars and restaurants appear to be the cause of most concern. Of course, masks are mandatory when you're out and about already. But not in bars and restaurants. Obviously.
I had to go to Marbella yesterday, sadly. Sadly, also, the people risking a €100 fine appeared to be mostly tourists.
In Torremolinos: https://twitter.com/alfonslopeztena/sta ... 66689?s=19 Even in pre-covid times I'd be worried about catching something.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by AMS » Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:44 pm

Brightonian wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:42 pm
Opti wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:47 pm
I foresee new 'lockdown' measures here in Andalusia imminently. Bars and restaurants appear to be the cause of most concern. Of course, masks are mandatory when you're out and about already. But not in bars and restaurants. Obviously.
I had to go to Marbella yesterday, sadly. Sadly, also, the people risking a €100 fine appeared to be mostly tourists.
In Torremolinos: https://twitter.com/alfonslopeztena/sta ... 66689?s=19 Even in pre-covid times I'd be worried about catching something.
I can't quite make out what the bottle contains, but if the % ethanol is high enough, it might just be enough to kill any virus off.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by jdc » Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:55 pm

AMS wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:44 pm
Brightonian wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:42 pm
Opti wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:47 pm
I foresee new 'lockdown' measures here in Andalusia imminently. Bars and restaurants appear to be the cause of most concern. Of course, masks are mandatory when you're out and about already. But not in bars and restaurants. Obviously.
I had to go to Marbella yesterday, sadly. Sadly, also, the people risking a €100 fine appeared to be mostly tourists.
In Torremolinos: https://twitter.com/alfonslopeztena/sta ... 66689?s=19 Even in pre-covid times I'd be worried about catching something.
I can't quite make out what the bottle contains, but if the % ethanol is high enough, it might just be enough to kill any virus off.
Bottle shape and colour of spray are both consistent with Jagermeister. At first glance, the label doesn't seem to be a match but I think it might be the back label that's visible in this video rather than the front label.

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Sun Aug 02, 2020 10:39 am

AMS wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:10 am
headshot wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:02 am
Masks...everywhere, all the time.
Whether it's enough, I don't know, but this is by some distance the easiest option, so why not?
After being eager for masks, and personally wearing one from the early days, I'm now less confident.

Not sure how useful they are for people wandering round the supermarket, popping into the petrol station for 60 seconds to pay, wearing them part time in a pub. Particularly when the employees in those spaces don't seem to wear them, presumably because 8 hours in a mask is a bit grim.

My office policy is, apparently, that you don't need to wear them sitting at a desk, but do when moving around. Not sure this works as a concept in a sealed air-conditioned office with no open windows etc. Most spread currently seems to be households indoors, plus workplaces where people are close together all day.

My current guess is that masks are very useful for public transport and crowded places, but not so much for everyday life.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by jimbob » Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:10 pm

I seem to recall seeing a comparison of cases in Italian municipalities where one locked down and one didn't. Has anyone any recollection?
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by FlammableFlower » Thu Aug 06, 2020 12:18 pm

Fun Catch-22 regarding my dentist - I'm waiting for a triage call from my dental surgery as I've had a flare-up of the abscess below one of my molars that had an improper root canal job at another dental surgery. Flipping heck last night was unpleasant and today isn't much better (woe is me). However, the fun bit is that having got an infection, I have a temperature. The little instructional video says that if I am called to go to the surgery they will check my temperature and if it's higher than 37.6 I'll either be sent to an alternative surgery or told to go away for a few days until my temperature goes down. But the entire reason I need to see the dentist is because of the infection that is giving me the temperature...

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by FlammableFlower » Thu Aug 06, 2020 12:58 pm

Having an interesting... discussion on a local Facebook page. Someone linked to an article that itself discussed a Lancet paper about care reopening schools. Then a local right-wing contrarian (best way I can describe them) popped up to say it was a biased opinion. Well, in a way yes as the original link was to "World Socialist Web Site" - however, they hadn't actually misrepresented the Lancet paper. MrsFF pointed out that it was from the Lancet. To which the contrarian wrote "but if you read the report it’s very critical of political things so clearly not unbiased" We then had this discussion:
"Me":
so you're saying that clinicians aren't allowed to have any opinions on political decisions that have medical/health impacts? They should just shut up and keep their heads down?
· Reply · 14 h
Contrarian:
"Me" of course not, their opinion is valid I was just pointing out it maybe biased
· Reply · 5 h · Edited
"Me":
Contrarian - any information (particularly found online) should be treated carefully as it may be biased or not, it may be deliberate misinformation even - however your comment fails to address that or any of the argument.
· Reply · 4 h
Contrarian:
"Me" the article looks like it a scientific piece but it’s not it’s an opinion piece that’s all
· Reply · 4 h
"Me":
No, the link (wsws.org) above is an opinion piece, however - the actual article it is commenting upon in the journal The Lancet, Child and Adolescent Health is a research paper (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 9/fulltext) detailing clearly with citations the methods and models used, the data sources and how they were calibrated and their conclusions, implication and any conflicts of interest (none).
What was great was that below he had this conversation:
Other local woman:
How is a clinicians opinion politically motivated... from years of ecperience paired with NHS data that most dont have access to he has stated that.... A major resurgence of the epidemic will bring tens and possibly hundreds of thousands more deaths. T… See more
· Reply · 5 h
Contrarian:
"Other local woman" the thing is the virus can’t be controlled in the way people believe it should be. We have to live with it until we get a vaccine or it runs it’s course
I really want to reply with "That's a nice opinion..."

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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Fri Aug 14, 2020 7:50 am

Sensible that those returning from France to the UK will be to forced to quarantine asked to quarantine.

France has a fast rise in cases, 2nd only to Spain who have a clear lead in 1st.

The Netherlands is 5th in a list of rising cases. Quarantine makes sense here too.

But it does the raise the question of why the UK isn't imposing quarantine on the 3rd and 4th risers? These are Germany and the UK. The UK should impose quarantine on these as well.

Lower down the chart, Greece is rising steadily, as is Switzerland. Signs of the rise in Italy too. Denmark and Norway, although from low levels. And Ireland saw a big jump in the last two weeks.
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by lpm » Fri Aug 14, 2020 8:00 am

The distinct rise in England seems to be centred around young people.

So I'm glad to see changes to lockdown from Saturday. We need to be aggressive in getting the number heading right down, before schools open in September. The changes are to close down... no wait, can this be right?... reopen the following:

Indoor theatre, indoor concerts, casinos, bowling alleys, some sport spectators, ice skating, soft play, more beauty treatments.

Each element of the salami unlockdown adds a bit to the upwards rise. The UK has accepted a base level of 1,000 cases per day - but is already at this level now, ahead of these new unlockdowns. The boost from England's schools is just 3 weeks away.

It took France 3 weeks to go from around 500 a day to 2,000....
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown

Post by jimbob » Fri Aug 14, 2020 8:32 am

Oh,

https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/news/l ... ls-4418755

Who would have thought that the "Keep Britain Free" astroturfed movement would hinder the response to a new outbreak?
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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