lpm wrote: ↑
Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:57 am
Looks like partial relockdown is on the way. Suspect it will be a salami relockdown, and therefore way too inadequate.
Broadly speaking, if the unlockdown level in July was Unlockdown(July), then in August following salami unlockdowns was at Unlockdown(August), then for the past two weeks we were at Unlockdown(Schools), and now at Unlockdown(Universities)...
...then from the stats we know Unlockdown(July) was about right, holding R at approx 0.9 to 1.0 (except for random events like meatpacking plants or whatever).
And we know Unlockdown(August) was slightly too much at approx R=1.1 or R=1.3, leading to a steady growth in cases across August, plus some unlucky localities ramping up significantly.
And we know the current Unlockdown(Schools) is defnitely too much, maybe R=1.7 (doubling time in one week), leading to a pretty fast jump in cases in September so far.
And Unlockdown(Universities) is inevitably even higher, shuffling the population around as well as increasing contact. Without any action, Unlockdown(October) will be even worse again due to weather: the end to outdoor beer gardens, park activities, BBQs in back gardens.
We need to somehow get back to the level of Unlockdown(July), yet also keeping schools and universities open. Because schools are so expensive in terms of contagion points, this will require pretty huge compensating lockdowns to offset. Unlockdown(October) must have far higher restrictions on non-education activities than Unlockdown(July) in order to balance out the education effects. Need to factor in proper NHS treatment for non-Covid health as well, which still isn't running properly. This means:
- close all pubs, restaurants and nightclubs
- close gyms, beauty saloons, bowling alleys and all the other little stuff that was salami unlockdowned
- work from home if you can work from home
- only leave your home to work, get food and exercise
- no mixing with other households for adults, but school children and students can mix