COVID-19

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:22 am

FB_IMG_1602663687268.jpg
FB_IMG_1602663687268.jpg (81.04 KiB) Viewed 1183 times
Some data on the ages which have covid in Italy.

You can see the spike in cases in young people in August when nightclubs opened.
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sTeamTraen
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:57 am

Nadine Dorries takes on Arran Banks.

I actually have some sympathy for Dorries here, which is why the link goes to Adam Rutherford's retweet and related discussion, where other people take a similar position. Clearly "There is no such thing as herd immunity" is not great wordsmithing (although it only needs "in the absence of a vaccine" to be correct), but I'd rather a government minister be seen to defend "Herd immunity isn't going to happen" than the ultra-libertarian position supported by Banks. (Also, he is a universal c.nt, whereas she is normally just a bit dense.)

It also makes me wonder if there isn't a bit of argy-bargy going on within the government about herd imunity, which I suspect Cummings may never really have given up on.
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Sciolus
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Sciolus » Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:09 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:57 am
Nadine Dorries takes on Arran Banks.

I actually have some sympathy for Dorries here, which is why the link goes to Adam Rutherford's retweet and related discussion, where other people take a similar position. Clearly "There is no such thing as herd immunity" is not great wordsmithing (although it only needs "in the absence of a vaccine" to be correct), but I'd rather a government minister be seen to defend "Herd immunity isn't going to happen" than the ultra-libertarian position supported by Banks. (Also, he is a universal c.nt, whereas she is normally just a bit dense.)

It also makes me wonder if there isn't a bit of argy-bargy going on within the government about herd imunity, which I suspect Cummings may never really have given up on.
Bold bit: No, natural immunity will do it too. So we could get herd immunity from Covid without a vaccine. Just it'll kill ~1% of the population to get there.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:37 am

There is no lasting immunity for any of the other coronaviruses.

By the time you'd purged the population of that 1% you'd be on to second and third round of infections for everyone else.

Not a problem for cold coronaviruses. Bit of a problem for a virus with such strange and powerful effects as our little Covid friend.
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bob sterman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bob sterman » Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:22 am

Not good news....

Interim WHO SOLIDARITY trial results are out....

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20209817v1

11,266 adults randomized...
Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir and Interferon regimens appeared to have little or no effect on hospitalized COVID-19, as indicated by overall mortality, initiation of ventilation and duration of hospital stay.
The Kaplan-Meier graphs on page 15 even show both Hydroxychloroquine and Interferon trending in the opposite direction (increased mortality).

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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:45 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:39 pm
jimbob wrote:
Tue Sep 08, 2020 5:42 pm



And the North Somerset cluster from that has made it into the UK official data now:

https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

Image
new data

Looking not too good in the South Coast now as well as the places we know.

Screenshot 2020-09-12 152021.png

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/C3SKs/10/ (zoomed map from https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/)

Image
Screenshot 2020-10-16 134318.png
Screenshot 2020-10-16 134318.png (127.67 KiB) Viewed 953 times
Scary development
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: COVID-19

Post by tenchboy » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:45 pm

jimbob wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:45 pm


Looking not too good in the South Coast now as well as the places we know.

The black blob there on the south coast is Eastbourne and the red Dorset blob stretches over to Weymouth and Durdle Door.
Where all those people were on the beaches together back in the summer.
Would one be a reflection of the other?

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Re: COVID-19

Post by jdc » Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:05 pm

I saw this and thought of you: https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/stat ... 6324218880
The vast majority of COVID deaths in England since July have been mislabelled false positive deaths. Here is the proof. This chart shows the number of tests carried out in hospitals in orange and the deaths in blue.
Image
You will notice that the shape of the two curves are very similar. We can test this. The chart below demonstrates that since August 93% of the rise in deaths can be accounted for by the rise in the number of tests done in hospitals over the 28 days preceding.
Image

If that's not enough to whet your appetite, there's plenty more graphs and commentary in the thread.

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Gfamily
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Gfamily » Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:29 pm

I'm not sure how the figures of >1,000,000 hospital PCR tests at the beginning of August can be squared with the figures in this Lancet paper (190K per day ) or the UK Gov's Coronavirus data page (PCR test capacity ~ 320K per day)

But I may be misreading what the axes represent.

In fact it coud be worse, because the Govt figures show that there were only about 50-60K Pillar 1 tests per day at the start of August.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:53 pm

jdc wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:05 pm
You will notice that the shape of the two curves are very similar. We can test this. The chart below demonstrates that since August 93% of the rise in deaths can be accounted for by the rise in the number of tests done in hospitals over the 28 days preceding.
Image
Ummm, did she just run a Pearson correlation on two time series?

And, why does the fact that the number of deaths correlates with the number of tests prove that there are a lot of false positives? How about if the number of tests carried is a function of the number of people who come in with cough, fever, muscle aches, and loss of sense of smell/taste?
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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:04 pm

jdc wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:05 pm
I saw this and thought of you: https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/stat ... 6324218880
The vast majority of COVID deaths in England since July have been mislabelled false positive deaths. Here is the proof. This chart shows the number of tests carried out in hospitals in orange and the deaths in blue.
Image
You will notice that the shape of the two curves are very similar. We can test this. The chart below demonstrates that since August 93% of the rise in deaths can be accounted for by the rise in the number of tests done in hospitals over the 28 days preceding.
Image

If that's not enough to whet your appetite, there's plenty more graphs and commentary in the thread.

Oh thanks... At the moment I seem to be replying to this one:

https://twitter.com/EatlovePray11/statu ... 4983419904

and my reply which was the cumulative data (because I'd nefariously* left out 2004 data in my first tweet):
https://twitter.com/ParkinJim/status/13 ... 3916498947
Pity the numbers don't support this: This is what the cumulative deaths from all causes were for each year in the last 20 years
Image
Spoiler - 2004 looks pretty similar to the other years that are not 2020

Image


*hadn't spotted that I had.
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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:05 pm

Oh, and I've come across
Dr Clare Craig FRCPath
@ClareCraigPath
Pathologist, lover of data, digital pathology and AI, sceptical but optimistic. Between jobs and unpaid but working flat out.
Before.

I think she's the new token scientist.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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bob sterman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bob sterman » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:03 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:05 pm
Oh, and I've come across
Dr Clare Craig FRCPath
@ClareCraigPath
Pathologist, lover of data, digital pathology and AI, sceptical but optimistic. Between jobs and unpaid but working flat out.
Before.

I think she's the new token scientist.
And campaigner for a "free school" in Hampstead...

https://www.hamhigh.co.uk/education/wes ... -1-2366153

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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:42 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:03 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:05 pm
Oh, and I've come across
Dr Clare Craig FRCPath
@ClareCraigPath
Pathologist, lover of data, digital pathology and AI, sceptical but optimistic. Between jobs and unpaid but working flat out.
Before.

I think she's the new token scientist.
And campaigner for a "free school" in Hampstead...

https://www.hamhigh.co.uk/education/wes ... -1-2366153
Nice.

Colmcq (of a former parish) has been highlighting several bad takes to me
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:40 pm

As someone said on the Twitter thread, it's no wonder she's "between jobs" if she's as bad at statistics (and basic inference) as that.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by dyqik » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:30 am

tenchboy wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:45 pm
jimbob wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:45 pm


Looking not too good in the South Coast now as well as the places we know.

The black blob there on the south coast is Eastbourne and the red Dorset blob stretches over to Weymouth and Durdle Door.
Where all those people were on the beaches together back in the summer.
Would one be a reflection of the other?
Er, it's Brighton and suburbs.

Eastbourne is visible as a smaller black blob on the east side of Beachy Head, and Hastings is also visible. But the black blobs in East Sussex are basically where the towns with hospitals are.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by AMS » Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:03 pm

dyqik wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:30 am
tenchboy wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:45 pm
jimbob wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:45 pm


Looking not too good in the South Coast now as well as the places we know.

The black blob there on the south coast is Eastbourne and the red Dorset blob stretches over to Weymouth and Durdle Door.
Where all those people were on the beaches together back in the summer.
Would one be a reflection of the other?
Er, it's Brighton and suburbs.

Eastbourne is visible as a smaller black blob on the east side of Beachy Head, and Hastings is also visible. But the black blobs in East Sussex are basically where the towns with hospitals are.
That map is starting to look like a population density map of the country, consistent with the virus spreading everywhere.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by discovolante » Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:25 pm

Erm, spot the difference?
scot.png
scot.png (53.01 KiB) Viewed 531 times
UK.png
UK.png (32.07 KiB) Viewed 531 times
https://www.gov.scot/publications/coron ... -scotland/
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
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Re: COVID-19

Post by tenchboy » Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:20 pm

dyqik wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:30 am


Er, it's Brighton and suburbs.

Eastbourne is visible as a smaller black blob on the east side of Beachy Head, and Hastings is also visible. But the black blobs in East Sussex are basically where the towns with hospitals are.
Er, don't know what happened there, I meant Bournemouth, the black blob to the west.
Or rather I do know what happened there, I was thinking Bournemouth, not Eastbourne, Bournemouth, don't write Eastbourne, Eastbourne is to the east, this is the one to the west that is Bournmouth the one that isn't Eastbourne.
And the because it was on my mind, I wrote Eastebourne.
Get me a new head, this one's done for.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Martin Y » Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:55 pm

It's just a mistaken Bourne identity.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by KAJ » Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:24 pm

discovolante wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:25 pm
Erm, spot the difference?

scot.png
UK.png

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coron ... -scotland/
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Scottish Govt
We were notified late last week of a testing capacity issue with the UK Government Lighthouse facility in Glasgow.

This has meant around 64,000 tests from across the UK, including Scotland, will be rerouted this weekend (Fri-Sun) to other testing sites in the UK and Northern Ireland, including tests from our physical testing sites, for example Regional Tests sites. It is important to note that the majority of these tests are still well within the 24 and 48 hour timeframe for results albeit we do expect to see an increase in the level of positives on Monday and Tuesday when the results are reported.

The Scottish Government is urgently trying to establish with the UK Government what exactly is causing the delay in testing but this is mainly due to demand from out with Scotland.

We continue to reroute routine testing of care home staff through NHS Scotland testing facilities to ensure prompt turnaround times.
UK Gov (via BBC)
This claim is categorically untrue.

There is no capacity issue at the UK government's Glasgow Lighthouse Lab. The Glasgow Lighthouse Lab is highly efficient, with the capacity to analyse tens of thousands of samples a day.

Rerouting tests to other laboratories is a routine practice to ensure timely processing.
Note they do not deny a delay in 64,000 tests, or a likely "increase in the level of positives on Monday and Tuesday when the results are reported", just that any delay is due to a "capacity issue". Humphrey Appleby would be proud.

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discovolante
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Re: COVID-19

Post by discovolante » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:41 pm

KAJ wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:24 pm
discovolante wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:25 pm
Erm, spot the difference?

scot.png
UK.png

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coron ... -scotland/
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Scottish Govt
We were notified late last week of a testing capacity issue with the UK Government Lighthouse facility in Glasgow.

This has meant around 64,000 tests from across the UK, including Scotland, will be rerouted this weekend (Fri-Sun) to other testing sites in the UK and Northern Ireland, including tests from our physical testing sites, for example Regional Tests sites. It is important to note that the majority of these tests are still well within the 24 and 48 hour timeframe for results albeit we do expect to see an increase in the level of positives on Monday and Tuesday when the results are reported.

The Scottish Government is urgently trying to establish with the UK Government what exactly is causing the delay in testing but this is mainly due to demand from out with Scotland.

We continue to reroute routine testing of care home staff through NHS Scotland testing facilities to ensure prompt turnaround times.
UK Gov (via BBC)
This claim is categorically untrue.

There is no capacity issue at the UK government's Glasgow Lighthouse Lab. The Glasgow Lighthouse Lab is highly efficient, with the capacity to analyse tens of thousands of samples a day.

Rerouting tests to other laboratories is a routine practice to ensure timely processing.
Note they do not deny a delay in 64,000 tests, or a likely "increase in the level of positives on Monday and Tuesday when the results are reported", just that any delay is due to a "capacity issue". Humphrey Appleby would be proud.
Ha! Well weasel words aside, if there's no problem, what a result for Scotland eh! Massive reduction in cases and % of total tests, wahey!
don't get any big ideas, they're not gonna happen

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Re: COVID-19

Post by raven » Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:10 pm

So. They're about to change the UK data dashboard again.

The new version, which is here, doesn't seem much different. But the new interactive map is. You can still drill down to the same small areas (well, in England anyway), the colour coding is much better, and clicking on an area opens up a nice clear pop-up box of stats with a comparison to the national average. Might be slightly confusing to have straight daily cases numbers and a rolling 7-day average per 100,000, but otherwise the new map might actually be an improvement on the previous one.

I'm almost pleasantly surprised.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by tenchboy » Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:22 pm

tenchboy wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:20 pm
dyqik wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:30 am


Er, it's Brighton and suburbs.

Eastbourne is visible as a smaller black blob on the east side of Beachy Head, and Hastings is also visible. But the black blobs in East Sussex are basically where the towns with hospitals are.
Er, don't know what happened there, I meant Bournemouth, the black blob to the west.
Or rather I do know what happened there, I was thinking Bournemouth, not Eastbourne, Bournemouth, don't write Eastbourne, Eastbourne is to the east, this is the one to the west that is Bournmouth the one that isn't Eastbourne.
And the because it was on my mind, I wrote Eastebourne.
Get me a new head, this one's done for.
I wonder if I should think about worrying about this. I appear to have form.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by KAJ » Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:29 pm

raven wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:10 pm
So. They're about to change the UK data dashboard again.

The new version, which is here, doesn't seem much different. But the new interactive map is. You can still drill down to the same small areas (well, in England anyway), the colour coding is much better, and clicking on an area opens up a nice clear pop-up box of stats with a comparison to the national average. Might be slightly confusing to have straight daily cases numbers and a rolling 7-day average per 100,000, but otherwise the new map might actually be an improvement on the previous one.

I'm almost pleasantly surprised.
Something funny about today's update of the Cases by Specimen date UK Total link.
By nation looks OK.

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