Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

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shpalman
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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by shpalman » Tue Jun 01, 2021 6:50 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 11:10 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 1:15 pm
If they can resolve their production difficulties. Vaccinating billions of people requires billions of vaccines x2. AZ doesn't seem to be able to do that.
Pfizer has done better with the supposedly more difficult and complex mRNA vaccine.
The great thing about the Janssen (J&J) vaccine is that by only having one dose, you almost completely eliminate logistics. You can turn up in a village somewhere with a van and vaccinate everyone who wants it, give them a card and move on. No need to coordinate follow-up in three or eight weeks time. It probably allows you to vaccinate three or four times the number of people for the same amount of resources. It's also that rare thing in economics, a good that everyone wants but nobody wants or can really use more than one of (give or take the possibility of a local black market in some cases, I suppose).
Given the uncertainty over the best dosing schedule for AstraZeneca (i.e. not the one officially tested in the Phase III trial) and that Pfizer is floating the idea of a booster and then an annual jab, it's not obvious to me that Janssen won't start recommending a second dose once real world results come in.

Of course there are even fewer Janssen doses being made for the EU than AstraZeneca ones right now, so it turned out not to be the answer to all our problems after all.
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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:42 am


Britain is in talks with Oxford and AstraZeneca (AZN.L) for additional doses of their COVID-19 vaccine that has been modified to better target the “beta” coronavirus variant first identified in South Africa, and it will fund trials of the shots.

Britain has previously secured 100 million doses of the vaccine, developed at the University of Oxford and licenced to AstraZeneca, and the health ministry said the extra doses under discussion would be tailored to target the B.1.351 variant.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britai ... 021-06-01/

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by Herainestold » Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:18 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:42 am

Britain is in talks with Oxford and AstraZeneca (AZN.L) for additional doses of their COVID-19 vaccine that has been modified to better target the “beta” coronavirus variant first identified in South Africa, and it will fund trials of the shots.

Britain has previously secured 100 million doses of the vaccine, developed at the University of Oxford and licenced to AstraZeneca, and the health ministry said the extra doses under discussion would be tailored to target the B.1.351 variant.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britai ... 021-06-01/
We are going to need boosters every 3-4 months to deal with these rapidly evolving variants and recurrent lockdowns for the foreseeable future to see our way through this crisis. Which is far from over.
Delta changes everything.

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:22 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:18 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:42 am

Britain is in talks with Oxford and AstraZeneca (AZN.L) for additional doses of their COVID-19 vaccine that has been modified to better target the “beta” coronavirus variant first identified in South Africa, and it will fund trials of the shots.

Britain has previously secured 100 million doses of the vaccine, developed at the University of Oxford and licenced to AstraZeneca, and the health ministry said the extra doses under discussion would be tailored to target the B.1.351 variant.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britai ... 021-06-01/
We are going to need boosters every 3-4 months to deal with these rapidly evolving variants and recurrent lockdowns for the foreseeable future to see our way through this crisis. Which is far from over.
Probably not that often. But if future variants have much greater immune escape I can envision permanent restrictions on travel, vaccine boosters and periodic social distancing while people wait for the next booster to be produced.

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by wilsontown » Wed Jun 02, 2021 3:38 pm

Just a thought - presumably there must be an optimum configuration for the spike protein such that the spreadability of the virus is maximized. At that point, assuming there is a vaccine that is effective against the optimal variant, any mutations that enable vaccine escape should also make the virus less efficient at spreading?
"All models are wrong but some are useful" - George Box

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by lpm » Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:10 pm

No, surely it's leading to a world where everyone has partial immunity to all Covid-19 strains, but will occasionally get a mild illness or asymptomatic illness from some strain or other? Just as we all get colds from coronaviruses.

There's no evidence the vaccinated immune system completely fails to notice any strain. A few people got Covid-19 twice but that never seemed anything more than a rare problem. Even the agile flu viruses don't dodge the immune system entire - the body knows how to respond, even if slow to notice a new variation.

People will die from Covid-19 strains millennia to come, but very old people often die of respiratory illnesses from influenza to the common cold.
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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by Herainestold » Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:17 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:22 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:18 pm
We are going to need boosters every 3-4 months to deal with these rapidly evolving variants and recurrent lockdowns for the foreseeable future to see our way through this crisis. Which is far from over.
Probably not that often. But if future variants have much greater immune escape I can envision permanent restrictions on travel, vaccine boosters and periodic social distancing while people wait for the next booster to be produced.
This virus is mutating much more quickly than had been anticipated. Travel restrictions, recurring lockdown, Masking and boosters are here to stay.
humans are adaptable, we will get used to it and life will go on.
Delta changes everything.

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by lpm » Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:28 pm

Yet more fact free bollocks from an idiot.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by WFJ » Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:35 pm

How this fourth wave plays out in the UK with a highly vaccinated population will give a good indication to other countries of what comes next. Slow rise, flat peak with low death rates?

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by shpalman » Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:49 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:42 am

Britain is in talks with Oxford and AstraZeneca (AZN.L) for additional doses of their COVID-19 vaccine that has been modified to better target the “beta” coronavirus variant first identified in South Africa, and it will fund trials of the shots.

Britain has previously secured 100 million doses of the vaccine, developed at the University of Oxford and licenced to AstraZeneca, and the health ministry said the extra doses under discussion would be tailored to target the B.1.351 variant.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britai ... 021-06-01/
Compared to Delta, is Beta even a problem anymore right now? Maybe it's a problem in South Africa, but that doesn't explain why Britain would be bothered about that variant and not the one currently flaring up.
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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by jdc » Wed Jun 02, 2021 9:20 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:18 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:42 am

Britain is in talks with Oxford and AstraZeneca (AZN.L) for additional doses of their COVID-19 vaccine that has been modified to better target the “beta” coronavirus variant first identified in South Africa, and it will fund trials of the shots.

Britain has previously secured 100 million doses of the vaccine, developed at the University of Oxford and licenced to AstraZeneca, and the health ministry said the extra doses under discussion would be tailored to target the B.1.351 variant.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britai ... 021-06-01/
We are going to need boosters every 3-4 months to deal with these rapidly evolving variants and recurrent lockdowns for the foreseeable future to see our way through this crisis. Which is far from over.
I dunno, 3-4 months sounds a bit frequent to me. We've given the virus 18 months and hundreds of millions of subjects to experiment on and it's still not come up with a mutant strain that completely evades vaccination. The best it's managed is a reduction in antibody effectiveness and a smaller reduction in T cell effectiveness. It hasn't even come up with that many interesting new mutations; every time I read about a new strain it turns out to have boring old N501Y or E484K mutations.

Note that a mutation that enhances one viral property, such as binding to a receptor, can reduce another property (evolutionary trade-offs innit), and that the more successful variants share mutations. If there are a limited number of ways a virus can mutate and each of them involve trade-offs it seems a bit unlikely that we're going to have such a rapid occurrence of new mutant strains that each require a new vaccine to match them. Add that the current vaccines are still pretty effective* against the variants and it seems to me that we're even less likely to need quarterly booster shots. Then there's the point that we only have annual revaccination against flu, which has a faster mutation rate than covid.**

* https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55659820
Latest research suggests two doses of either the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine still protect people from getting ill with the India variant.

Early lab results and real life data suggest the Pfizer vaccine can protect against the new variants, although slightly less effectively.

Data from the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine team suggests it protects just as well against the Kent/UK variant. It offers less protection against the South Africa variant - but should still protect against severe illness.

One recent study suggests the Brazilian variant may resist antibodies in people who've recovered from Covid before.

Some early results suggest the Moderna vaccine is effective against the South Africa variant, although the immune response triggered may be weaker and shorter-lived.

** Both viruses depend on a viral RNA polymerase to express their proteins, but only SARS-CoV-2 has a proofreading mechanism, which results in a low mutation rate compared to influenza. and A typical SARS-CoV-2 virus accumulates only two single-letter mutations per month in its genome — a rate of change about half that of influenza and one-quarter that of HIV

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by lpm » Wed Jun 02, 2021 9:38 pm

Hence my pinball analogy. It's mostly going down similar paths all the time. It's not a highly chaotic pinball machine with countless paths.

It's had long enough and infected enough millions to show what it's capable of. Which is nothing too different to the original strain.
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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by Herainestold » Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:23 pm

jdc wrote:
Wed Jun 02, 2021 9:20 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:18 pm
We are going to need boosters every 3-4 months to deal with these rapidly evolving variants and recurrent lockdowns for the foreseeable future to see our way through this crisis. Which is far from over.
I dunno, 3-4 months sounds a bit frequent to me. We've given the virus 18 months and hundreds of millions of subjects to experiment on and it's still not come up with a mutant strain that completely evades vaccination. The best it's managed is a reduction in antibody effectiveness and a smaller reduction in T cell effectiveness. It hasn't even come up with that many interesting new mutations; every time I read about a new strain it turns out to have boring old N501Y or E484K mutations.

Note that a mutation that enhances one viral property, such as binding to a receptor, can reduce another property (evolutionary trade-offs innit), and that the more successful variants share mutations. If there are a limited number of ways a virus can mutate and each of them involve trade-offs it seems a bit unlikely that we're going to have such a rapid occurrence of new mutant strains that each require a new vaccine to match them. Add that the current vaccines are still pretty effective* against the variants and it seems to me that we're even less likely to need quarterly booster shots. Then there's the point that we only have annual revaccination against flu, which has a faster mutation rate than covid.**

* https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55659820
Latest research suggests two doses of either the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine still protect people from getting ill with the India variant.

Early lab results and real life data suggest the Pfizer vaccine can protect against the new variants, although slightly less effectively.

Data from the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine team suggests it protects just as well against the Kent/UK variant. It offers less protection against the South Africa variant - but should still protect against severe illness.

One recent study suggests the Brazilian variant may resist antibodies in people who've recovered from Covid before.

Some early results suggest the Moderna vaccine is effective against the South Africa variant, although the immune response triggered may be weaker and shorter-lived.

** Both viruses depend on a viral RNA polymerase to express their proteins, but only SARS-CoV-2 has a proofreading mechanism, which results in a low mutation rate compared to influenza. and A typical SARS-CoV-2 virus accumulates only two single-letter mutations per month in its genome — a rate of change about half that of influenza and one-quarter that of HIV
We just got out of the woods on the Kent variant, have missed a close call on the South African variant, evaded the Brazilian variant, we are staring down the Modi Delta variant and looking sideways at the new Vietnam variant. Three months may not be often enough, we might need a new booster every month. Or at least every six. This isn't going away, but it might be manageable with constant vigilance.
Delta changes everything.

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by lpm » Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:29 pm

What do you get out of writing this nonsense?
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by Millennie Al » Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:47 pm

wilsontown wrote:
Wed Jun 02, 2021 3:38 pm
Just a thought - presumably there must be an optimum configuration for the spike protein such that the spreadability of the virus is maximized. At that point, assuming there is a vaccine that is effective against the optimal variant, any mutations that enable vaccine escape should also make the virus less efficient at spreading?
The optimum will depend on the environment. In unvaccinated and unexposed people it could be one thing, while in people peviously exposed it could be something else, while in vaccinated people it could be a third thing.
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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by wilsontown » Thu Jun 03, 2021 9:19 am

lpm wrote:
Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:29 pm
What do you get out of writing this nonsense?
I'm glad you've posed this question. I mean, jdc has spent a bit of time there putting together a useful long post with links and everything, but Herainestold has simply ignored all that in favour of hysteria.
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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by headshot » Thu Jun 03, 2021 9:53 am

I'm *this* close to added them to the foe list.

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by bob sterman » Thu Jun 03, 2021 10:08 am

jdc wrote:
Wed Jun 02, 2021 9:20 pm
Note that a mutation that enhances one viral property, such as binding to a receptor, can reduce another property (evolutionary trade-offs innit),
Indeed - and the following paper suggests a possible trade-off that could account for some of the differences between SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2

Differences and similarities between SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2: spike receptor-binding domain recognition and host cell infection with support of cellular serine proteases
https://link.springer.com/article/10.10 ... 20-01486-5

The idea is that mutations that increase receptor binding potential - might also make the virus more recognisable to the immune system.

Image

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by shpalman » Tue Jun 15, 2021 5:44 pm

Marco Cavaleri, the EMA’s head of vaccine strategy, said that it could be worth dropping AstraZeneca including for the over-60s in favour of others like Pfizer and Moderna to which the EMA says he didn't mean that it could be worth dropping AstraZeneca including for the over-60s in favour of others like Pfizer and Moderna without saying what he might have actually meant.
molto tricky

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by tom p » Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:46 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Jun 02, 2021 9:38 pm
Hence my pinball analogy. It's mostly going down similar paths all the time. It's not a highly chaotic pinball machine with countless paths.

It's had long enough and infected enough millions to show what it's capable of. Which is nothing too different to the original strain.
I think pachinko might be a slightly better analogy, but it's fundamentally correct either way.
Probably over the next year or two we will need/want an additional booster that covers all of 4 current main variants and one or two others, and that should do us

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by tom p » Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:48 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 5:44 pm
Marco Cavaleri, the EMA’s head of vaccine strategy, said that it could be worth dropping AstraZeneca including for the over-60s in favour of others like Pfizer and Moderna to which the EMA says he didn't mean that it could be worth dropping AstraZeneca including for the over-60s in favour of others like Pfizer and Moderna without saying what he might have actually meant.
Do you have access to the original text in La Stampa? I'd be interested to read it

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by shpalman » Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:07 pm

tom p wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:48 pm
shpalman wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 5:44 pm
Marco Cavaleri, the EMA’s head of vaccine strategy, said that it could be worth dropping AstraZeneca including for the over-60s in favour of others like Pfizer and Moderna to which the EMA says he didn't mean that it could be worth dropping AstraZeneca including for the over-60s in favour of others like Pfizer and Moderna without saying what he might have actually meant.
Do you have access to the original text in La Stampa? I'd be interested to read it
The link is this one but it bugs you to disable adblock and then asks you to take out a subscription to read all of it anyway. Not sure if googling the headline

Cavaleri (Ema): “La scelta sull’uso di AstraZeneca la lasciamo ai singoli Stati”

will help either. The headline may have been changed with the url suggesting it was originally something like

Cavaleri (Ema): “Meglio vietare AstraZeneca a tutti, giusto dare J&J solo agli anziani”

Maybe this is a paraphrase/copy-paste of what he said:

https://www.quotidianosanita.it/scienza ... o_id=96292
molto tricky

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by tom p » Thu Jun 17, 2021 8:50 am

cheers shpalmers

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:00 pm


In what could be a harbinger for Broadway’s post-Covid protocol, Springsteen on Broadway has announced that audience members must be vaccinated with an FDA-approved vaccine, a policy no doubt disappointing to the many Canadians and Europeans who have received the AstraZeneca vaccine.

Producers of Springsteen on Broadway announced Tuesday night that the show, which will begin performances on June 26 to become Broadway’s first post-shutdown arrival, will require the FDA-approved vaccines. To date, the FDA has approved vaccines by Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech and Johnson & Johnson.
https://deadline.com/2021/06/springstee ... 234777046/

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by bob sterman » Thu Jun 17, 2021 6:55 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:00 pm

In what could be a harbinger for Broadway’s post-Covid protocol, Springsteen on Broadway has announced that audience members must be vaccinated with an FDA-approved vaccine, a policy no doubt disappointing to the many Canadians and Europeans who have received the AstraZeneca vaccine.

Producers of Springsteen on Broadway announced Tuesday night that the show, which will begin performances on June 26 to become Broadway’s first post-shutdown arrival, will require the FDA-approved vaccines. To date, the FDA has approved vaccines by Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech and Johnson & Johnson.
https://deadline.com/2021/06/springstee ... 234777046/
Next he'll be telling us you gotta get "Jabbed in the USA"

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